#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 After the Federal Reserve decision, can Bitcoin's $77,000 support hold? The market faces threefold tests

Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision remains unchanged, marking the third consecutive pause Summary: In the early hours of April 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This is the third consecutive meeting to hold rates steady. Meanwhile, the Senate approved Kevin Waugh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair with a 13:11 party-line vote, expected to officially succeed Powell on May 15. This change signals that the Fed's policy focus may shift more toward price stability, causing structural changes in the loose liquidity environment that underpins crypto asset pricing.
Market impact assessment:
Short-term impact: High - triggers concerns over a shift in monetary policy, potentially increasing volatility in risk assets
Medium-term impact: High - affects the liquidity environment for crypto asset pricing
Long-term impact: Moderate - depends on Fed policy trajectory and economic data
Affected tokens: BTC, ETH, all cryptocurrencies
Today’s price movements show divergence: Bitcoin oscillates near the key support level of $77,000, while mainstream coins like SOL, XRP, ADA generally decline, but DOGE rises against the trend by 3.60%, indicating market sentiment divergence.
Key observation: Bitcoin weakly oscillates: price fluctuates between $74,941 and $77,900, down 0.69% over 24 hours Altcoins generally under pressure: SOL, XRP, ADA, DOT all down 1-2%, showing cooling risk appetite DOGE defies trend: up 3.60% in 24 hours, with significantly increased volume possibly driven by specific news Market sentiment: overall 24-hour change of -0.44%, technicals face tests

Market outlook and investment advice
Macroeconomic policy: approaching window for Fed policy shift The Fed’s third consecutive pause, but the approval of Waugh’s nomination signals a possible shift toward stronger focus on price stability. This change has structural implications for the crypto market:
Liquidity environment change: If the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance, global liquidity will tighten, putting pressure on risk assets
Interest rate path expectations: Markets should closely monitor the first policy statement after Waugh’s official appointment on May 15 Inflation and growth balance: high oil prices elevate inflation expectations, possibly forcing the Fed to take more aggressive measures Capital flows: institutional funding divergence intensifies
Today’s capital flows show clear divergence: Negative signal: BlackRock’s iBit records a net outflow of $112 million, indicating some institutions are taking short-term profits Positive signal: MicroStrategy continues to accumulate up to 818,334 BTC, showing long-term optimism Market impact: Diverging capital flows may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply near the $77,000 support level

Technological innovation: Explosive growth in RWA sector The RWA tokenization sector is moving from concept validation to scaled application:
Market size: On-chain RWA market total reaches $27.7 billion, up 300% YoY, with strong growth momentum Institutional participation: Nomura Group and other traditional financial institutions entering the space, providing credit backing and funding Governance upgrade: Ondo Finance offers proxy voting, marking a new phase in on-chain asset governance
Geopolitical situation: Tensions in the Middle East persist, with the Strait of Hormuz disruptions becoming routine, profoundly impacting global energy markets and inflation expectations:
Oil price transmission: Brent crude surpasses $111/barrel, increasing global inflation pressure
Safe-haven demand: Geopolitical risks may drive funds into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin Policy response: Central banks worldwide may face tougher choices between growth and inflation
Investment advice based on the threefold tests recommends investors adopt the following strategies:
Short-term caution: Monitor the effectiveness of the $77,000 support level; a break below could test the $75,000 zone Mid-term positioning: RWA sector has long-term growth potential; consider ETH, SOL, and related ecosystem projects Risk hedging: Allocate part of the funds to safe-haven assets to counter geopolitical uncertainties Position management: Maintain moderate positions amid current volatility to avoid over-leverage