#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Former Lehman Brothers trader and founder of The Bear Trap Report, Larry McDonald, warns that investors chasing SpaceX's massive IPO could repeat the mistakes made before the collapse of Amazon's internet bubble.
He believes investors are blinded by SpaceX's valuation, and if it reaches $2 trillion, it would require $15 trillion to $19 trillion in revenue to achieve similar returns as Tesla, which is "extremely unrealistic."
SpaceX may be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, seeking at least a $1.8 trillion valuation, planning to raise up to $75 billion. Its IPO documents show revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, and $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, along with ambitious goals across multiple sectors.
McDonald states that the market is overly reliant on artificial intelligence narratives, with investors pricing in future earnings prematurely and insufficiently concerned about risks. He calls the wave of IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic the "event of the century," with their combined valuation soaring from about $760 billion a year ago to $3.5 trillion.
McDonald worries about risks in passive investing and retirement accounts, noting that accelerated inclusion in indices could force index funds to buy SpaceX stock regardless of valuation. He urges investors to stop this and protect 401(k) retirement accounts. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell have already amended their rules, and S&P Dow Jones Indices is also considering similar changes. Bloomberg estimates that if S&P adopts fast inclusion, passive funds could absorb nearly $20 billion in SpaceX stock. $SPCX
He believes investors are blinded by SpaceX's valuation, and if it reaches $2 trillion, it would require $15 trillion to $19 trillion in revenue to achieve similar returns as Tesla, which is "extremely unrealistic."
SpaceX may be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, seeking at least a $1.8 trillion valuation, planning to raise up to $75 billion. Its IPO documents show revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, and $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026, along with ambitious goals across multiple sectors.
McDonald states that the market is overly reliant on artificial intelligence narratives, with investors pricing in future earnings prematurely and insufficiently concerned about risks. He calls the wave of IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic the "event of the century," with their combined valuation soaring from about $760 billion a year ago to $3.5 trillion.
McDonald worries about risks in passive investing and retirement accounts, noting that accelerated inclusion in indices could force index funds to buy SpaceX stock regardless of valuation. He urges investors to stop this and protect 401(k) retirement accounts. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell have already amended their rules, and S&P Dow Jones Indices is also considering similar changes. Bloomberg estimates that if S&P adopts fast inclusion, passive funds could absorb nearly $20 billion in SpaceX stock. $SPCX
