emilyvuong

🔴BTC falls below $60K for the first time in 20 months
Total liquidation volume in 24h reached $1.5B (even more if today ends), with long liquidation over $1B.
This figure becomes the second largest liquidation event in history, only behind the liquidation on 10/10/2025.
Can it get worse? Historical data shows that the bear market bottom is only marked when the market is most bored, not when it is most fearful.
There is still several months of sideways grinding before things change (if the 4-year cycle still holds).

🔴May Core PCE highest since October 2023 - Warsh has even more reason to reinforce hawkish stance
Official data just released:
- Core PCE MoM: 0.3% for the month (in line with forecasts)
- Core PCE YoY: 3.4% - surged to highest since October 2023
- Headline PCE YoY: 4.1% - highest since April 2023, headline MoM +0.4%
- Personal Income and Personal Spending both +0.7% MoM
In the context of inflation driven by energy increases, Core PCE is clearly a more reliable indicator.
Even though the +0.3% MoM figure is "lower than expectations," the YoY 3.4% is the highest in 32 months -> the energy shoc

🔴Real income growth (adjusted for inflation) of Americans in April 2026 turned negative for the first time since 2022.

🔴Trump refuses to sign the largest housing bill since 1980
U.S. Congress passes "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" by overwhelming margins: Senate 85-5, House 358-32 (veto-proof - enough votes to override a presidential veto). Key provisions:
- Cut NEPA procedures, accelerate project approvals
- Reward localities that build more housing, cut CDBG for slow localities
- Limit investment funds owning ≥350 homes from purchasing more single-family homes
- Pilot FHA loan guarantees <$100K
- Promote prefabricated, modular, and ADU housing
- Raise RAD cap by an additional 100,000 units
- Ban Fed from

🔴Trump refuses to sign the largest housing bill since 1980
The US Congress passed the "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act" by an overwhelming margin: Senate 85-5, House 358-32 (veto-proof - the passing vote ratio is high enough that the president cannot veto). Main content:
- Cut NEPA procedures, accelerate project approvals
- Reward local governments that build more housing, cut CDBG for slow local governments
- Limit investment funds owning ≥350 homes from purchasing more single-family homes
- Pilot FHA loan guarantees <$100K
- Promote prefabricated, modular, ADU
- Raise RAD cap by 100,000 un

🔴Starmer announces resignation - Trump predicted this months ago
You just witnessed the seventh UK Prime Minister in 10 years resign.
Last Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Keir Starmer will resign as UK Prime Minister. He has failed badly on two very important issues - immigration and energy.”
The issue is that a few days earlier, Starmer had declared to the press, "I will stand firm, I will not go anywhere." Today, he officially announced his resignation, citing the Labour Party no longer trusts him enough to lead the next general election.
Trump and Starmer have had conflicts

🔴Semiconductor ETFs last week marked the highest inflow volume in history.
More than half of the ETFs with the highest trading volume in early June belong to the semiconductor group.
$SMH and $SOXX attracted a total of +$4.7B inflow — the largest weekly amount ever recorded.
Surpassing the previous week's record by approximately $1.8B.

🔴Buyback Big Tech sinks to 10-year lows — Who is swallowing all the cash in the market?
Q1/2026: The top 4 AI-using companies (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon); only Microsoft is still doing share buybacks. This $3.4B figure is also the lowest buyback level for this group in nearly 1 decade.
The reason is $725B CAPEX. The 5 tech giants have spent a total of $725B on AI in 2026, up 77% from the record $410B level in 2025:
- Microsoft: $190B
- Alphabet: $190B
- Amazon: $200B
- Meta: $125-145B (up 87-101% YoY compared with $72.2B in 2025) — the highest year-over-year percentage increas

🔴Semiconductor ETFs last week marked the highest inflow volume in history.
More than half of the ETFs with the highest trading volume in early June belong to the semiconductor group.
$SMH and $SOXX attracted a total of +$4.7B in inflows — the largest weekly amount ever recorded.
Surpassing the previous week's record by approximately $1.8B.

🔴The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in July suddenly jumped from 10.4% to 38.5% just a few days after Warsh's first FOMC meeting.
🔴The probability of holding rates steady at 350-375bps remains unchanged.
- One month ago: 87.2%
- One week ago: 89.3%
- One day ago: 61.5%
Currently back down to 61.5%
🔴The probability of increasing rates to 375-400bps:
- One month ago: 10.4%
- One week ago: 8.3%
Now surged to 38.5%
🔴The market is starting to price in the dot plot data:
- 9 out of 18 FOMC members forecast at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6

🔴Approximately 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held by long-term holders (LTH) — the highest level ever recorded.
This ratio has previously increased during near-bottom phases of the bear market, which can be seen as a sign that the market is close to reaching the bottom of the downtrend.
🔴The amount of BTC "held for at least 2 years" that has moved is only about 218,500 BTC in the first half of 2026. Compared to the same period in the previous downtrend, which was 1.18 million BTC.
Clearly, selling pressure from LTH has decreased significantly, not to mention some of

🔴 The US-Iran agreement has been signed
📌 The actual agreement was signed sooner than the planned schedule on Friday in Switzerland.
There were two signing events: one silent electronic signing on Sunday, and a public signing on Wednesday in Versailles (France) during dinner with Macron.
The delegation meeting (Vance - Ghalibaf) still took place on Friday in Switzerland to negotiate the nuclear issue.
Trump at the G7 threatened: If Iran does not fulfill its commitments within 60 days, the US will resume bombing — "we go back to bombing."
📌 Note that the number $300B mentioned by