Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Chinese aluminum exports are set to rise as buyers seek alternatives due to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. March exports increased by 13%, with forecasts predicting annual sales could reach or exceed past records due to heightened demand.

A whale address was liquidated for $10.3 million in long positions after a sudden oil price drop, resulting in a $1.14 million loss, as reported by Lookonchain. The positions involved crude oil futures benchmarks.

China's lithium battery exports surged 50% in Q1 2026, driven by preemptive shipments before a tax rebate cut. This increase comes amid heightened energy security concerns due to Middle East conflicts, significantly boosting profits for manufacturers like Ningbo Deye Technology.

The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast due to the impact of Middle East conflicts on energy prices, presenting three potential scenarios. The adverse outlook suggests recession risks with rising oil prices affecting growth, particularly in emerging markets.

Gate News message, April 14 — WTI crude oil futures (U.S. benchmark crude oil) extended losses to 4%, trading at $87.113 per barrel as of April 15.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, GAS (Gasoline) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

International crude oil futures fell sharply, with WTI down 7.87% to $91.28 and Brent down 4.6% to $94.79 per barrel. Iran is contemplating suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in declining core inflation despite the Iran war, urging the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Rising consumer prices due to the conflict have impacted President Trump's approval ratings. Trump's Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, faces nomination delays but may soon proceed.

The U.S. Treasury eased sanctions on Venezuela's financial system, allowing access to U.S. dollars and oil revenue, supporting Delcy Rodriguez's government amid public worker protests for better pay. Relations with Venezuela are normalizing post-Maduro's ouster.

The EBRD warns that a prolonged Iran war could severely impact Europe's economy, potentially shrinking growth and increasing inflation. Negotiations have stalled, and the bank plans to invest €5 billion to support affected nations while the EU proposes easing state aid rules to address energy costs.

GMX has launched 24/7 gold and silver perpetual markets on Arbitrum, achieving over $10 million in trading volume on day one. Utilizing Chainlink Data Streams for secure pricing, GMX aims to expand into real-world asset derivatives. This move highlights the trend of decentralizing commodity trading.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COCOA (Cocoa) has surged by 6% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

The Pakistani government has proposed holding a second round of face-to-face U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. Currently, both sides still have differences on nuclear issues. U.S. Vice President Vance said there has been progress and emphasized that Iran needs to take the initiative. As the April 21 ceasefire deadline approaches, if there is no new agreement, military action could escalate. The market response has been largely positive, but traders remain cautious.

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) shows that in March, the year-over-year increase reached 4%, the largest rise in three years, driven mainly by the Iran war boosting energy costs. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: the core PPI is relatively mild, indicating that inflation pressure is coming primarily from the supply side. Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased, and the reaction in financial markets indicates that expectations for a more restrictive stance in monetary policy have strengthened. The focus going forward will be on the Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

Donald Trump criticized the UK for not expanding North Sea oil drilling, arguing it worsens Europe's energy crisis. He condemned wind energy projects and highlighted the economic challenges faced by Aberdeen due to decreased drilling activity.

The ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports is redirecting oil tankers towards the Atlantic, significantly disrupting global oil shipping and leading to a decline in freight rates. Experts predict lasting shifts in tanker routes, potentially impacting the global economy.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, April 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook report, lowering its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The report notes that the fighting in the Middle East has significantly affected the current momentum of global economic growth. If the fighting and high oil prices continue for longer, this year global economic growth will fall to 2.5% or even lower.

Gate News update, according to Gate’s official announcement The Gate TradFi zone has launched multiple CFD trading pairs. The Forex zone has added 17 new trading pairs, including CHFSGD, EURDKK, EURPLN, USDBRL, USDCLP, USDCOP, USDILS, USDKRW, USDPLN, EURCNH, EURHKD, GBPNOK, GBPSEK, NOKSEK, NZDSEK, AUDZAR, and CHFZAR, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Indices zone has launched two trading pairs, ES35 and SA40, both supporting fixed leverage of 100x. The Metals zone has launched five trading pairs: XAGAUD, XAUAUD, XAUEUR, XAUJPY, and XPDUSD, supporting fixed leverage of 20 to 100x. The Commodities zone has launched a GAS gasoline trading pair, supporting fixed leverage of 20x. For all trading pairs, the minimum order quantity is 0.01.