Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Repsol has reestablished control over its Venezuelan oil assets following a deal with the government, planning to boost production by 50% in the next year despite previous U.S. sanctions that had limited its operations.

Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe's aviation fuel reserves could last only six weeks due to Middle Eastern turmoil affecting oil supplies, risking flight cancellations and impacting global economic growth, especially in developing nations.

Congo has established a strategic reserve for cobalt and critical minerals, mandating that 10% of cobalt exports be set aside for state purposes. This move allows the government to better manage the global cobalt market and complements existing export quotas.

Eddie Yue from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority states that Hong Kong's banking sector faces limited risk from Middle East tensions, though rising oil prices may impact energy-sensitive sectors. There's no increase in SME assistance requests, and the authority continues to monitor the situation. The anticipated 19.3% default rate for a special loan scheme is being managed through standard collection procedures.

The Trump administration will not renew sanctions waivers for Iranian and Russian oil, prompting threats of secondary sanctions against countries, particularly China, buying Iranian oil. This decision ends efforts to stabilize global oil prices amidst ongoing Middle East tensions.

Austan Goolsbee warns that high oil prices from the Iran war may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates until 2027, prolonging inflation above the 2% target and leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate scenario.

TotalEnergies anticipates strong first-quarter results driven by rising energy prices and increased production outside the Middle East, despite Iran conflict impacts. The company expects growth in oil and gas output and trading, against potential supply disruptions.

XRG, the investment arm of Adnoc, is seeking merger opportunities in Europe despite challenges in the petrochemical sector due to high natural gas prices. The company aims for significant LNG capacity by 2035 and has successfully completed major acquisitions.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COTTON (Cotton) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Rising hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire have spurred a global market rally, with stock indices hitting record highs and risk sentiment improving. As tensions ease, oil prices stabilize, the dollar weakens, and investor focus shifts to corporate earnings and growth amid declining inflation concerns.

The Baltic Dry Index rose 5.5% to 2,484 points on April 16, marking nine days of gains due to increased demand and reduced vessel supply, especially for Capesize ships. Rising iron ore imports from China signal robust market activity.

ERCOT warns Texas's power demand may quadruple by 2032, driven by AI data centers and population growth, potentially requiring capacity equivalent to 300 new nuclear reactors. Major tech companies are adopting self-supply models with long-term power agreements, while challenges like grid capacity and costs remain.

According to The Block’s report, Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market open interest reached a peak of $2.38 billion in April, but has recently fallen to $2.1 billion. TradeXYZ dominates the market, accounting for more than 90% of the share. The top ten by trading volume on Hyperliquid are mainly driven by tokenized stocks and commodity futures, offering 24/7 trading services that traditional exchanges cannot provide.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched an investigation into crude oil futures trading before the Trump administration’s policy changes toward Iran, involving the CME Group and ICE trading platforms. The investigation focuses on trading data from March 23 and April 7, when investors built up large positions in the hours before the ceasefire. The CFTC chair emphasized that it will pursue any illegal activity and faces lawmakers calling for further investigation into officials’ alleged insider trading.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, COTTON (Cotton) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

The CFTC is investigating unusual oil trades linked to President Trump's announcements on Truth Social, raising concerns of potential insider trading or market manipulation. Details on the trades and involved entities remain undisclosed.

Shrinkflation, driven by rising inflation due to the Middle East conflict, is affecting Brazilian consumers as companies reduce product quantities while keeping prices unchanged. Despite Lula's efforts to alleviate financial burdens, public discontent is growing, complicating his reelection prospects.

The United States and Iran reached a “principled agreement” to extend the ceasefire on April 15, bringing hope for the ceasefire deal that expires on April 21, with Pakistan actively mediating. Despite this, three major core disputes—Iran’s nuclear program, navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations—still need to be resolved. The ceasefire news boosted the financial markets back to strength, pushed oil prices down, and led investors’ risk appetite to rebound. If a formal agreement cannot be signed before the deadline, the situation in the Middle East may flare up again.

Gate News message, April 15 — U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Wright stated that there is no necessity to further release the country's strategic petroleum reserves.

Crypto hedge funds are diversifying into traditional commodities and equity indices, indicating that crypto trading infrastructure is merging with mainstream finance, as reported by Bloomberg.