Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

The U.S. Treasury renewed a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases through May 16, despite prior indications of no renewal. This led to sharp declines in Brent crude prices, provoking criticism from European officials and highlighting geopolitical tensions.

Turkey and Iran have not yet begun negotiations to renew their natural gas contract expiring in 2026, as stated by Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar. Currently, Iran exports 9.6 billion cubic meters annually, but Turkey's actual imports were only 7.6 billion cubic meters last year.

On April 18, Ukraine's Armed Forces targeted four significant Russian oil facilities, including refineries and a transshipment terminal, aimed at disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces. The damage assessment is ongoing, with no response from Russia yet.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed again because the U.S. side failed to fulfill its obligations under the agreement, and Iran needs to re-approve the passage of vessels. Trump said the negotiations are going well, but the issue of handling nuclear material remains the main point of disagreement. With the ceasefire deadline approaching, he hinted that it may not be extended, raising fears of a renewed attack. The situation is tense, and it could have far-reaching effects on the energy market.

The U.S. Department of Energy will loan over 26 million barrels of crude oil to nine companies, marking the third release of strategic reserves since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict began, aimed at moderating oil prices. Delivery is set for May and June 2026.

President Trump announced that U.S. negotiations about a potential conflict with Iran will persist over the weekend. He firmly denied any possibility of Iran imposing tolls on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. is contemplating increased uranium imports from Namibia to support nuclear energy for AI data centers, as China dominates Namibia's uranium sector. Rising uranium prices are reviving mining interests, despite water supply challenges in the arid region.

Gate News message, April 18 — U.S. stock indices closed sharply higher on April 17, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.52% to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.79% to 49,447.43. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive tr

In 2026, the aviation industry faces a crisis as three airlines, EcoJet UK, Royal Air Philippines, and Dove Airlines, entered administration or liquidation due to soaring jet fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions. This has led to thousands of flight cancellations and increased operational costs for remaining carriers.

On April 17, investors sold significant Brent crude futures amid news of open passage in the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to drop sharply. Lawmakers are investigating potential insider trading linked to these trades before key policy announcements.

The U.S. White House announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, allowing all commercial vessels to pass, but the maritime blockade against Iran remains in effect until the transaction is completed. Iran’s foreign minister confirmed compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire agreement, and the strait has resumed normal passage. This move is expected to have far-reaching implications for global energy supplies.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 8% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, April 17 — WTI crude oil futures declined 10.14%, trading at $85.09 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures (London-traded benchmark) fell 9.03%, settling at $90.41 per barrel.

Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire, ensuring the safety of crucial shipping routes. This reflects Iran's commitment to maritime passage in the region.

Fatih Birol of the IEA predicts a two-year recovery for Middle East oil and gas production post-Iran war, with rising prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global oil demand is projected to decline for the first time since the pandemic.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has surged by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Hungary's Tisza Party chairman Peter Mogyoró announced that MOL may restart the "Friendship" oil pipeline soon, ensuring fuel supply security. He also aims for protective pricing for fuels post-government formation and is negotiating EU funding, hoping for an agreement during his first visit to Brussels.

A report by Vimeo reveals that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are prompting trade restructuring in the Gulf through alternative logistics methods, driven by increased war risk insurance, congestion, and governance uncertainty.

The PIDS warns that rising global oil prices could push 1.34 million Filipinos into poverty, particularly impacting lower-income families. The report advocates for targeted support rather than broad subsidies, emphasizing vulnerabilities in rural areas and certain regions.

Trump said in Nevada that progress on Iran’s military action is going smoothly, predicted that the fighting would end soon, and emphasized the strength of the U.S. military. He mainly promoted a tax exemption policy for tips and responded to questions from the media. Since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement was reached, the situation has changed somewhat, but the true timeline and conditions for when the ceasefire would actually end remain unclear, and there are many disagreements between the two sides.