XRP holds key support: The decision period for the October Spot ETF is approaching, with a breakthrough of $3 and BlackRock's entry becoming the focus.

XRPTraders are bracing for a critical three weeks as speculation mounts regarding the approval of the XRP Spot ETF. In October 2025, ETF applications from six issuers, including Grayscale and Bitwise, will face the SEC's final ruling, with the approval odds on the Polymarket platform surging to 99% this year. Given the SEC's past precedent of approving all Bitcoin ETFs, the market anticipates that all XRP ETFs could be approved around October 18 or 19. The current price of XRP is $2.8075, approaching the psychological barrier of $3, and whether BlackRock and Vanguard enter the market will be a key catalyst in determining if XRP's price can challenge its historical high of $3.66.

ETF Approval Countdown: Market Expects 99% Approval

XRP traders are preparing for a critical regulatory approval period in October 2025.

· Decision Timeline: Mid to late October will be a critical period for the SEC's decision on the fate of the XRP Spot ETF. The main final decision deadlines are as follows:

• October 18: Grayscale XRP ETF

• October 19: 21Shares Core XRP Trust ETF

• October 22: Bitwise XRP ETF

• October 23: Canary Capital and CoinShares

• October 24: WisdomTree XRP ETF

• November 14: Franklin Templeton XRP ETF

· High Approval Expectations: Given that the SEC has ruled that XRP is not a security, traders widely expect the SEC to approve these Spot ETFs. On the Polymarket platform, the probability of XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has sharply risen from 64.6% on August 6 to 99%.

· Centralized approval possibility: The market speculates that the SEC may follow the precedent of the Bitcoin ETF, approving all 11 applications on January 11, 2024, allowing all XRP ETFs to launch centrally on October 18 or 19, in order to avoid any first-mover advantage.

· Initial fund flow: REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) and Grayscale's Digital Large Cap ETF recorded net inflows of $15 million and $22 million respectively on their first trading day, indicating strong initial demand. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented that although the flow is not as high as Bitcoin, it still far exceeds the average first-day performance of regular ETFs.

Absence of Giants and Competitive Pressure: The Role of BlackRock and Vanguard

Despite the approaching deadline for the XRP ETF, BlackRock (BLK) has not yet expressed its stance on the launch of the XRP Spot ETF, and its entry or lack thereof is crucial for the XRP price.

· BlackRock's Influence: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have dominated the crypto ETF market. If BlackRock applies for and successfully launches the iShares XRP Trust, its influence could drive XRP to reach an all-time high. Previously, the demand for BTC and ETH Spot ETFs pushed their prices to historical highs in August 2025 (at $123,731 and $4,958 respectively).

· Vanguard's competition: If the second largest ETF issuer, Vanguard, changes its stance and opens up crypto ETFs to investors or even launches its own XRP Spot ETF to compete with BlackRock, it would be a "coveted" positive outlook for XRP investors.

· Focus: Traders should closely monitor the movements of BlackRock and Vanguard in the ETF space, as any application or listing action regarding the XRP ETF from either could have a decisive impact on market demand.

Technical Analysis and Scenario Prediction: $3 or $2.7 choice

As regulatory decisions approach, the price of XRP rose by 0.75% on September 27, closing at $2.8075, outperforming the overall market (0%), and moving towards the psychological level of $3.

· Key technical level:

• Support levels: 2.7 dollars and 2.5 dollars.

• Resistance levels: $3, $3.2, $3.335, and the historical high of $3.66.

· Potential factors affecting short-term prices:

• ETF fund flow: Inflows and outflows of funds for existing products such as XRPR, GDLC, BITW.

• Regulatory headlines: XRP ETF approval may be delayed, decisions from BlackRock and Vanguard.

• Corporate Demand: The willingness of blue-chip companies to use XRP as a treasury reserve asset.

• Regulatory Milestone: Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, progress on the Market Structure Bill, and industry developments related to SWIFT.

bearish scenario

If the ETF capital inflow is sluggish or there is an outflow, BlackRock and Vanguard exclude the plan to launch an XRP ETF, the SEC rejects the XRP ETF application, or Ripple's banking license is denied, these negative factors may drag XRP towards the support level of 2.7 dollars, and if it breaks below, it may expose the support at 2.5 dollars.

bullish scenario

If the existing ETF reports strong capital inflows, BlackRock and Vanguard list XRP ETF, SEC approves XRP ETF, blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury reserves, Ripple obtains a U.S. chartered banking license, or SWIFT loses market share in the global remittance market to Ripple, these catalysts could push XRP towards $3. Once it breaks $3, bulls will set their sights on $3.2.

Conclusion

October is a critical moment for XRP's destiny. The intense rulings from the SEC, the maturation of the CME derivatives market, and speculation over whether BlackRock and Vanguard will enter the XRP Spot ETF are shaping market expectations for XRP. The funding demand for early ETFs will be a key factor for trading after approval, but the progress of the "Market Structure Bill" in the U.S. Senate is also crucial for the overall development and adoption of the U.S. crypto market. The market is looking forward to a breakthrough for XRP in these milestones, but the ultimate trend will depend on the balance of three forces: regulatory approval, institutional demand, and macro policies.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.