Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Machi (machibigbrother) gave back the $12.3 million in gains from rolling long positions on ETH in August after ETH fluctuated slightly several times in September: only $1 million remains. His success and failure both came from rolling long positions: Machi (machibigbrother) capitalized on ETH’s rise from $1,900 to $2,500 in August, turning $150,000 into $12.3 million. In September, ETH traded between $2,400 and $2,600

Same feeling. Compared with Powell’s time, the U.S. these days may not be saying anything, but it somehow feels like it has already said everything. Especially with prediction markets, things have become more transparent, and most news is basically heavily traded before it materializes.

Carve

The probability of a 25 bp rate hike tonight is 95%; this is no longer news.
The real news is that the Fed's default option has shifted from "hold" to "move."
Over the past two years, the market has been playing a game with the Fed that had clear boundaries.
The logic was simple: strong data → possible tightening; weak data → stay put.
The initiative was in the market's hands. You could bet on the data weakening and the Fed being forced to relent. Weak nonfarm payrolls sent BTC higher; soft CPI triggered a celebration in risk assets. The market was "waiting for good news."
ING Chief International Economist James Knightley, Head of US Research Padhraic Garvey, and Global Markets Head Chris Turner wrote a devastating line in their latest outlook:
The baseline scenario has flipped: the Fed now leans toward hiking rates unless the data is weak enough to make it pause.
The same data, the same payrolls report, the same CPI—the entire interpretive framework has been reversed.
Old paradigm: the Fed does not move unless the data weakens to a certain degree.
New paradigm: if the data is not weak enough, the Fed moves.
The burden of proof has completely reversed. The market has gone from "waiting for good news" to "praying it is not too bad."
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162k, versus market expectations of 55k and a previous reading of 21k. More than three times expectations.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, versus expectations of 0.2%; core services inflation jumped 0.51% month-on-month, the highest since January this year.
"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos hit the nail on the head: Core services inflation excluding housing strengthened again, and the services price pressures the Fed cares most about have not materially eased.
Employment is strong, inflation is sticky, and energy prices are still pushing higher. Oil prices are up 16.3% from the same period last year, while diesel has hit a record high.
Does the Fed have a reason to pause? No.
Waller made it clear at Jackson Hole: inflation has been above target for five and a half consecutive years, the economy is close to full employment, and financial conditions are nowhere near tight.
Translated into plain English: I cannot find a reason not to hike.
For BTC, this is not about a single rate hike tonight.
It is about a persistently hawkish framework for interpreting the data.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is nearing 5%, pushing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin to an extreme. Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale's research department, characterized this cycle as a "temporary obstacle," but he also acknowledged that high interest rates weaken liquidity and reduce the appeal of speculative assets.
Data not weak enough → rate-hike expectations rise → real rates move higher → non-yielding assets come under pressure.
BTC is at $75,730 today, down 2.84% over 24 hours; ETH is down 4.61%, and SOL is down 5.27%. Volume has expanded as prices fall, with panic selling underway.
But the real risk is not today. It is what comes after today.
If this paradigm holds, every payrolls report and every CPI release will become a situation where "the possibility of bad news is greater than that of good news."
The market spent two weeks pricing the probability of a rate hike from 35% to 95%. It will take longer to adapt to the fact that "hawkish is the default."
TD Securities expects this to be the first of three rate hikes in this cycle, with one each in October and January next year. Goldman Sachs has already changed its forecast from holding rates steady to a September hike. HSBC has changed its forecast as well.
When every major bank's forecast is moving in the same direction while you are still clinging to the rate-cut script—that is not conviction; it is denial.
Waller will not give you a roadmap tonight. At his debut in June, he already said he would not provide forward guidance. JPMorgan immediately pushed its bet on the first hike from the second half of 2027 to December.
There is no roadmap, only a reaction function. And the default value of that reaction function is now "move."
Tonight is not the end of a single rate hike; it is the beginning of a new pricing logic.
What you need to worry about is not 25 basis points. You need to worry that—from now on, every time data is released, you will have to ask yourself: is this data weak enough to make the Fed stop?$BTC $ETH $SOL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

Record: What will not change is the result; the difference lies in the process. 1. Using Ethereum as the anchor, 2800 is an important midpoint for Ethereum in the previous cycle. Above 2800, it will head toward 4000; below 2800, it will remain weak. In the first wave of the transition from bear to bull, I feel that breaking through 2800 will not be easy. Based on Ethereum, this is why the black-line prediction in Chart 1 was made. In reality, could it reach 2900 or even 3000? The corresponding levels for Bitcoin are 88000-90000;

Never let a profitable trade turn into a losing one. Your floor must rise step by step as your profits grow.
This isn’t just about setting a stop-loss.
Imagine climbing Mount Everest. You can’t reach the summit in one go. First, you get to Camp 1, then Camp 2. If the weather suddenly changes, you don’t need to retreat all the way to base camp; you only need to fall back to the previous camp for safety. Trading works exactly the same way.
For example, you buy an asset at 10, with your initial defense line set at 8. Fortunately, the market takes off, and the price rises to 13. At this point, most beginners focus obsessively on targets of 15 or even 20. They’re already calculating how much money they’ll make and what kind of car they’ll buy, while their defense line is still sitting at 8.
That’s where the tragedy begins.
Once the market turns, and the price falls from 13 back to 11, they panic. They think, “I didn’t sell when I was up 3. If I sell now, won’t I be taking a loss?” So they start holding on stubbornly. When it falls back to 10, they think, “It has to bounce back now, right?” Finally, when it breaks below 8, they capitulate and sell at a loss in despair.
What would someone who truly understands stop-loss management do? When the price reaches 13, they would have quietly raised their defense line to 11, or at least to the 10 breakeven level.
That’s a zero-cost trade.

Today’s AI U.S. stock market intel:
1. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision tonight, with a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point hike! Trump has no choice but to say he respects the decision
2. $OpenAI is considering another funding round before going public, with its valuation potentially reaching $1.2 trillion. It’s taking advantage of the momentum to raise money first
3. $GOOGL DeepMind researcher Bilal Chughtai publicly resigned, saying AI could potentially kill all of humanity
4. Security software stocks are surging! $CRWD $PANW $ZS surged 15%; the less secure AI becomes, the more essential security software is
5. $QCOM surged 5%; Qualcomm is helping AWS develop custom AI chips, with institutions setting a price target of → 270. $NVDA $AMD are beginning an oversold rebound

It’s normal and expected that the CLARITY Act didn’t pass. The only unexpected development was that Trump stirred things up before the vote, amplifying volatility; the current negative catalyst has now been priced in. The next negative catalyst is the rate hike early Thursday morning, which is basically a certainty as well. We’ll continue waiting for that shoe to drop and see how the market reacts;
For now, Bitcoin hasn’t broken below 75000, and Ethereum hasn’t broken below 2350, so it’s still a relatively strong sideways adjustment.

Crypto is basically the illegitimate child— it can’t even get a clear bill passed.
Look at how the U.S. government treats AI: it directly uses public funds to take stakes in rare-earth mining companies, Intel, and IBM. That’s practically national socialism.
Now look at the crypto industry. It keeps talking about a strategic reserve $BTC , but in reality, it isn’t putting up a single cent—all talk, no action.
Put bluntly, AI is the true child, built with real money, while crypto is just a backup option for courting votes.

The probability of an interest rate hike has surged to 92%, while crude oil has risen to 106, pushing macro pressure to the limit:
1. The semiconductor index $SMH
has now fallen below the 100-day moving average. If the key support at 540 fails to hold, the next target below is 504, and in an extreme scenario, it could keep falling all the way to around the 200-day moving average at 484.
2. Nvidia $NVDA
is struggling to hold the edge of its 100-day moving average, and its price action is already showing signs of a breakdown. Once that level fails, the gap below points directly to 207, with a possible decline to 197. Avoid accelerated selling pressure in the short term.
3. Broadcom $AVGO
has already fallen below its 200-day moving average and has faced continuous resistance from above for nearly three weeks. The next step is to fill the gap below, with 335 and 315 as the initial targets. If it really gets crushed into the 290-302 range, that would be a major money-printing opportunity for long-term positioning.
4. AMD $AMD
is currently the strongest performer among the major players, but the 100-day moving average must be watched closely. As long as it falls below the 477-480 range, the downside channel toward 440 will open directly below.
5. Micron $MU
has not truly broken below its 100-day moving average since May 2025. If it loses the 100-day line along with the broader market this time, the key support targets below are around 740 and 655, in that order.
6. SanDisk $SNDK
is the weakest performer in the group and broke down below its moving averages long ago. The downtrend is now clear, with short-term support directly around 1050.
However, all of these companies are industry leaders with extremely strong cash flow. The deep pits created by a major sell-off are precisely where long-term wealth-building begins.

The CLARITY Act failed to pass, leaving hundreds of millions of dollars in lobbying funds with nothing to show for them.
Last night in Washington, the Senate held a procedural vote.
Result: 49 votes in favor, 50 against.
It fell 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold for passage.
But in the final hour before the vote, the market was still betting that it would pass.
Then—nearly $300 million in crypto long positions were liquidated in an instant.
Within 24 hours, 115,716 people were liquidated.
Coinbase -10.10%
Circle -11.45%
Strategy -5.36%
Robinhood -3.39%
What about Bitcoin?
It fell just 4.08%, to $75,883.
The declines on the stock side were 2 to 3 times larger than those in crypto.
What the market was really pricing in was never a deterioration in BTC's fundamentals. It was the evaporation of the “regulatory expectations premium.”
Companies like Coinbase and Circle had a premium embedded in their valuations called “the CLARITY Act will pass.” Once the bill fell, that premium went straight to zero.
BTC did not have that premium, so it fell the least.
People who bought crypto lost 4%. People who bought Coinbase stock lost 10%. The same news, different wounds.
On Monday, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year was still 31%.
After the vote, it plunged straight to 9%.
At 31%, the market was betting.
At 9%, the market was accepting reality.
And those who increased their bets at 31% were already out of the game at 9%.
The bill is not dead, but a short-term revival is unlikely.
Senator John Kennedy put it bluntly—it may have to wait until the lame-duck session to move forward.
In plain English: Washington will not touch this hot potato again before the midterm elections.
The Democrats did not provide a single vote. All 45 Democratic senators voted against it.
The Republicans had 53 seats, but still lost a few votes.
The core sticking point was the Trump family's crypto conflicts of interest.
The Republican compromise version required officials to divest their crypto assets or establish a blind trust—but the restrictions did not extend to the sons operating the Trump family's crypto businesses.
The Democrats were not buying it. Warren opened fire directly: the rules should not give politicians and their families a special passage.
A bill became deadlocked over whether “the president's sons can continue making money from crypto.”
This is Washington.
As the CLARITY vote failed, the SOL spot ETF recorded $1.34 million in net inflows in a single day.
BTC ETFs are also recovering—Bitwise bought more than $100 million worth of SOL within 20 days.
BlackRock's IBIT attracted approximately $1.08 billion in the 20 days through September 15.
The bill fell in the Senate. Institutional funds continued entering through the ETF channel.
These two things happened at the same time. Let that sink in.
Political maneuvering is playing out in Washington, while real money is moving on-chain.
The bill fell, but the money did not stop.
The Fear and Greed Index fell from yesterday's 69, “Greed,” to 51, “Neutral,” in a single day.
But sentiment is not the real issue.
The issue is that while Washington is still arguing over whether “the president's sons can make money from crypto,” institutional funds worldwide are already quietly building positions through the ETF channel.
CLARITY is stuck.
The money is not. $BTC $ETH $COIN #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 #Gate广场中秋团圆局

Tomorrow, the ARC chain will officially launch its mainnet. Currently, on-chain tools haven’t yet developed data support for the new chain. I saw that the Ave wallet already has information on some Arc coins. I withdrew 1000u to the ARC chain. Tomorrow, let’s see whether we can catch a leading project and get a 10x.
Ave download link:

After rejection it was being observed that which i told $BTC tik down to $68k first.
‎
‎Now fear of not passing clarity Act is also increasing.
‎
‎Be resilient

I feel this very deeply. Here’s the simplest way to judge: if a project requires you to read three threads and watch two videos before you can understand it, it’s probably not making money for you—it’s making money from your principal.
Truly good assets have extremely low explanation costs. Hype is the leader in on-chain perpetuals, Uni is the largest DEX, and Pendle is interest rate trading. One sentence is enough for you to understand why they’re valuable.

Arc mainnet goes live tomorrow. There are plenty of positive and negative opinions in the market, so I wanted to share my thoughts. Arc is probably familiar to everyone. It’s an L1 blockchain built by Circle itself. It isn’t positioned as a general-purpose blockchain, but as a stablecoin settlement layer. Gas fees are paid in USDC, and its validator list includes institutions such as BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, and a16z. Put simply, it’s Circle’s favored child, born with a silver spoon in its mouth. Bullish points: Circle

Does anyone know what the main narrative of the ARC chain is? Robinhood’s main narrative is crypto stocks and RWA. Solana’s main narrative is crypto stocks. BSC’s main narrative is imitation.

I’m fully prepared for the CLARITY Act vote.
#Bitcoin will determine our fate. Good Luck

Gold at $4,280—would you still dare to buy it?
Look at the surface first: a barrage of bearish news, with retail investors cutting losses and exiting.
Over the past month, gold has pulled back more than 20% from its $5,600 all-time high, breaking below the daily 50/100/150 EMA convergence zone. With a descending channel and lower highs, bears have the short-term upper hand. Don't buy the dip.
First: the oil price surge has instead become gold's "death knell."
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was attacked, Brent crude broke above $100-$108, WTI approached $99, and prices rose 15-20% within the month.
Normally, geopolitical conflict should prompt investors to buy gold as a safe haven. But this time is different—
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations heat up → the probability priced in for a Fed rate hike surges to 92% → the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumps to 5.01%, its highest since 2007 → the U.S. Dollar Index rises above 99.58.
Gold is a non-yielding asset, and the higher the interest rate, the more costly it is to hold. Funds are flowing from gold into "interest-bearing" dollar assets.
Second: tomorrow night's Fed meeting will be gold's "life-or-death verdict."
At the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the market is pricing in an 85-92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. This would be the first rate hike since 2023.
The key is not whether rates rise, but what Warsh says afterward:
If the dot plot is dovish, hinting that the rate-hike cycle is limited → gold rebounds on "buy the fact," surging directly to 4,400-4,500
If the dot plot is more hawkish, hinting at further rate hikes → gold breaks directly below 4,250, falling toward 4,180 or even 4,110
Third: Don't panic—the long-term logic is still intact.
Rates are suppressing gold in the short term, but look at these data points:
Central-bank gold purchases are continuing, with strong Q2 data
Emerging-market reserve diversification, concerns over Western fiscal sustainability, and demand for geopolitical hedging—all remain in place
Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end $4,900 target
ETF flows and physical demand have support at low levels
You decide on the bull-bear battle
On one side:
Geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East and the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, provide a safe-haven floor
Central banks continue buying gold, while Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 by year-end
Dense support at 4,250-4,265, near the five-week low
The daily RSI is not extremely oversold, leaving room for a technical rebound
On the other side:
A 92% rate-hike probability, with the 5.01% Treasury yield exerting pressure
The U.S. Dollar Index has risen above 99.58, with DXY strengthening
The daily chart has broken below all EMAs, and the descending channel remains intact
Perpetual funding rates are slightly positive, making long-position carrying costs unfavorable
Resistance above: 4,310-4,335 → 4,340-4,350 → 4,400-4,440
Support below: 4,250-4,265 (strong support) → 4,210 → 4,110
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a rebound to 4,310-4,335 produces a long upper wick/rejection, cautiously try a small short position, with a stop-loss above 4,350 and targets at 4,250 → 4,210. If it breaks directly below 4,250 and holds there, continue targeting 4,180-4,110. Only cautiously try a small long position at 4,250-4,265 after a clear hammer/engulfing pattern plus increased volume, with a stop-loss below 4,240 and a target of 4,310.
Swing traders:
Wait for the Fed decision to be announced. Hawkish → wait for a rebound to short; dovish and more accommodative than expected → reverse and target 4,400-4,500.
Long-term believers:
Accumulate in batches below 4,250, holding it as "insurance against fiat depreciation." If central banks are buying, what are you afraid of? Target 4,500-4,900, hold for six months to one year, and don't get shaken out by short-term volatility.
You may be calling gold garbage now, but next year you might be kicking yourself.
Rate suppression is temporary; currency depreciation is eternal.
"Be greedy when others are fearful"—you've heard it 100 times, but when gold actually falls to 4,250, you still won't dare to buy.
Gold at 4,280 and gold at 5,600 are the same thing. What changed is not its value, but your emotions.
When the Fed decision drops tomorrow night, will you dare to add to your position? $BTC $ETH $XAU #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

One more reminder: if you happen to come across a blogger and think he’s pretty impressive, then follow him. Be sure to keep observing and maintain your FOLLOW: 1. There is no genius with a 100% win rate. Keep observing—you can watch him make money, you can watch him lose money, and then you can see how he handles things when he’s making and losing money;

Why the fact that the price keeps failing to fall may not necessarily indicate strength Combined with current market conditions, BTC is consolidating at a high level, and this is something everyone should think about. When I first started trading, I always felt reassured when I saw high-level consolidation: with negative news coming one after another but the price not falling, it meant that major players were absorbing the selling pressure, and the price would most likely continue rising afterward.