Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Even if interest rates are raised tonight, would you still have the heart to chase short positions at this price level and timing?

While the market bleeds, $ZIG is quietly holding up. 👀
The 4H chart shows a bounce from $0.03738 → $0.04124, with buyers stepping back in.
And the fundamentals are getting stronger:
• $100M DFSA-regulated ZM1 Fund
• Nomura’s Laser Digital invested in ZIGChain
• Concrete + WLFI using ZIGChain rails
• Revenue-funded $ZIG buybacks ongoing
Price + fundamentals starting to align.

You only need to launch one coin with a 30m market cap, and everyone will come to worship.
Robinhood hasn’t even been figured out yet, and now Arc has arrived. Hunting for chains is like rowing upstream: if you don’t move forward, you fall behind.
$CRCL Build this chain around stablecoin settlement and use USDC as Gas. Will this evolve into the next speculative mecca with extremely high capital efficiency?

ETH at $2,390—would you dare bet tonight?
First, the chart: The current price is 2,390, holding above last night’s low of 2,358, while all the short-term moving averages are pressing down from above. The daily MACD has formed a death cross, and RSI is 33-50—not at extreme oversold levels, but not strong enough to buy blindly either. The short term leans bearish, while the medium term is still intact. Tonight is the variable.
First: The bill failed to pass, burying $570 million in longs.
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to advance in a 49-50 vote. The market voted with its feet, dumping ETH from above 2,500 to 2,358, liquidating $570 million in longs.
Regulatory expectations fell short; it was leverage, not conviction, that got liquidated.
On the same day, the ETH spot ETF still recorded net inflows.
Second: The fundamentals have not collapsed—your emotions have.
The on-chain data is right there:
Q2 average TPS was approximately 25.9, a record high
The staking ratio is 32%-34%, while exchange balances continue to decline
BitMine’s holdings are approaching 4.9% of the circulating supply, about 5.96 million ETH, and it is still accumulating and staking
The Glamsterdam upgrade and higher gas limit remain medium-term positives
ETH is still ETH: DeFi, RWA, and the stablecoin settlement layer are all still there.
Third: The technicals are telling you that now is not the time to go all in.
Daily chart: The move up to 2,667 failed, followed by a high-volume break below 2,500 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The 5/10/20-day moving averages are bearishly aligned, the MACD has formed a death cross, and momentum has turned bearish.
4H: 2,390 is stuck in the 2,358-2,408 range, with resistance at 2,420-2,465 above and support at 2,358-2,380 below.
Support: 2,358-2,380 → 2,340 → 2,300 → 2,250-2,274 (EMA50)
Resistance: 2,420-2,465 → 2,500 → 2,540-2,567 → 2,600-2,667
2,358 is last night’s low, and also your psychological line in the sand.
Tonight’s FOMC is the real weapon.
The market is pricing in an 85%-93% chance of a 25bp rate hike, which is largely priced in already. What could deliver another leg down is a rate hike + hawkish dot plot + Warsh press conference.
If it is just a rate hike with neutral wording → the bearish news may be fully priced in, potentially leading to a quick reclaim of 2,460
If there is a rate hike + hawkish guidance → 2,358 will likely break, with the next stop at 2,300 or even 2,250
If there is an unexpected hold → a direct explosive rally, but the probability is extremely low
You are not waiting for the FOMC; you are waiting for a reason—either to convince yourself to add to your position or to convince yourself to cut your losses.
The long-short showdown—you decide
On one side:
ETH ETFs are still seeing net inflows; institutions have not withdrawn
BitMine has accumulated 4.9% of the circulating supply, locked in staking
The staking rate is 32%-34%, and exchange balances are declining
2,358-2,380 is strong support and has held through multiple tests
On the other side:
The CLARITY Act failed, cooling regulatory expectations
The probability of an FOMC rate hike is 90%, creating macro pressure
The MACD has formed a death cross, and the short-term moving averages are bearishly aligned
BTC is weakening in the 75,000-77,000 range, with risk appetite contracting
Trading strategy
Scenario A (highest probability): Range-bound movement or a dip
If a rebound to 2,460-2,500 lacks momentum (upper wick, high-volume stagnation) → try a small short, with a stop-loss at 2,540-2,560 and targets at 2,380 → 2,300.
If 2,350 breaks and cannot be reclaimed → follow the trend with a small short, with a stop-loss at 2,390-2,410 and targets at 2,300/2,250.
Scenario B: 2,358-2,380 holds, followed by a rapid rally after the decision
Open small long positions in batches at 2,360-2,390, with a stop-loss below 2,330.
The first target is 2,460-2,480, and the second target is 2,540. Trim your position at 2,460; don’t fantasize about an immediate return to 2,667.
Scenario C: Rate hike + hawkish dot plot
There could be a sharp wick. Do not add to your position to average down; wait for the 15-minute/1-hour candle close before deciding.
If the daily candle closes below 2,300, the short-term trend will clearly shift into a down wave. Short first, then reassess after a rebound.
Medium-term view: As long as the weekly chart does not break below 2,200-2,250, this is still considered a shakeout within a bull-market correction. But to look at 3,000 again, ETH must first reclaim 2,560-2,667 and hold above it.
The $570 million in longs were buried not because they got the direction wrong, but because they bet on the wrong timing.
Institutions are picking up coins below 2,400, while you are asking above 2,400, “Should I cut my losses?”
Rate hikes are not scary; what is scary is being fully invested while waiting for a rate hike.
Tonight’s FOMC: Are you watching from the sidelines, or have you already bet on a direction?$BTC $ETH $SOL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

C8’s Stock Trading Mindset:
1. Stop always thinking you’ll get rich overnight this month.
2. Choose 3 to 5 assets and absolutely do not touch anything else.
3. Do your homework and mark key price levels every Sunday, without exception.
4. Delete all the miscellaneous technical indicators cluttering your charts.
5. Before opening every position, size it as if the money could go to zero.
6. After calculating it, cut the position size in half.
7. Don’t stare obsessively at unrealized profit and loss while trading.
8. Decide where your stop-loss will be before entering, instead of regretting it afterward.
9. Never average down or add to a losing position against the trend.
10. When you’re overly excited or not in the right emotional state, stop immediately.
11. When you feel the urge to revenge trade, stop placing orders immediately.
12. When you’re bored, never place trades just to seek excitement.
13. Learn to sit on your hands for several consecutive days.
14. Stay calm even when you miss a major market move, without batting an eye.
15. Admit that FOMO is self-harm.
16. After a winning streak, never blindly increase your position size.
17. After a losing streak, absolutely do not make emotional bets with oversized positions.
18. Review and record every trade, whether it wins or loses.
19. Identify the triggers most likely to make you blow yourself up, and eliminate them at the root.
20. Get up early every day without skipping a day.
21. Meditate quietly for a while before the market opens.
22. Exercise regularly and get at least 7 hours of sleep every night.
23. Completely detach your personal worth from your account’s profit and loss.
24. Let go of the obsession with “I must be right.”
25. Hold profitable trades according to your plan and let your profits run.
26. Don’t micromanage or repeatedly alter orders that are already in progress.
27. Prove that you can achieve consistent profitability before considering scaling up your capital.
28. Increase your position size gradually; never add to it on impulse.
29. Focus on the trading process and execution, not the result of any single trade.
30. Grade your own “execution” every week instead of looking at how much money you made that week.
31. Fix only one bad trading habit at a time.
32. Never change your trading strategy frequently.
33. Never try one indicator today and switch to another tomorrow.
34. Never blindly copy trades or someone else’s homework.
35. Whenever possible, trade during the first hour after the open, when volatility is highest.
36. Practice and master one trading setup thoroughly.
37. Clearly define the situations in which you absolutely will not trade.
38. After two consecutive failed trades, immediately close the software, shut down your computer, and walk away.
39. Analyze losing trades ten times more deeply than profitable trades.
40. Figure out whether you always fail to hold profitable trades and sell too early.
41. Figure out whether you always stubbornly hold on to losing trades.
42. Protect your principal as if your life depended on it.
43. Build the habit of withdrawing funds regularly every week.
44. Completely abandon the all-in mindset.
45. Stop always thinking, “This trade will definitely turn things around or make me a huge profit.”
46. Build greater psychological tolerance for drawdowns.
47. Accept months when you neither make nor lose money and your account remains flat.
48. Accept that slow is fast, and accept gradual growth.
49. Accept that trading is boring and that boredom is the ultimate goal.
50. Never place a trade just to “make back what you lost.”
51. Never place a trade just to prove yourself to others.
52. Never place a trade just to escape the realities of life.
53. Trade only to execute your system. That’s all.
54. Keep your position sizes small until the process becomes muscle memory.
55. Put survival first instead of pursuing the fastest possible profits.
56. Build strong psychological resilience before increasing your position size.
57. Measure your time horizon in “years,” not “months.”
58. Stay at this poker table long enough, and compounding will naturally take effect.
How boring are the trades that really make big money...

Is a Crash Just Free Money? Oracle’s Selloff Creates a Golden Basin:
1. Oracle $ORCL
Don’t chase the price in the short term; it’s a gem for the long term. The chart is currently being suppressed by the moving averages and has entered a pullback. If it breaks below the 137 support level, it will likely slide all the way down to 113 - 122, or even near 105. However, the long-term fundamentals are extremely strong. Over the next few years, quarterly revenue could surge from the current $19 billion to $25 - 30 billion. The strategy is not to rush into an all-in position in the short term. Keep cash on hand, buy in batches as the price falls, and hold for the long term after purchasing.
2. Nebius $NBIS
has a relatively weak trend and has already lost support from the 100-day moving average. Don’t rush to catch a falling knife. Patiently wait for it to pull back to around the 200-day moving average, or continue falling to around 140. That would be the safest area to enter and buy the dip.
3. IREN $IREN
The chart looks quite ugly. It failed to break higher after forming a double top near the 100-day moving average and was slammed lower. It remains weak, and will likely continue falling. Consider taking action only after it pulls back to the 30 - 32 dollar range.
4. CoreWeave $CRWV
With the broader market environment tense, oil prices surging, and uncertainty surrounding interest rate policy, there is no need to be overly aggressive. The ideal area for a heavy CoreWeave position is around 65 - 70 dollars. It is not too late to buy the dip once it reaches this range.
5. Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ and the semiconductor sector $SMH
Technology stocks and semiconductors are generally weak in the short term. QQQ has already fallen below the 100-day moving average, and the broader market is leaning bearish. If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates, the market could suffer another sharp selloff. The overall approach for now is not to blindly turn bearish, but to remain conservative when buying and wait for the broader market to carve out a deep bottom before building a long-term position in batches.
Don’t let a short-term grind lower scare you away!

BTC at $75,800—are you planning to go long or short?
Look at the surface first: negative news is bombarding the market, but the price has not collapsed.
BTC fell from $126,000 to $75,000, a 40% retracement, and is down 13% this year. On September 15, a large bearish candle erased the rebound from the previous days and broke below $78,000. Today, it is fluctuating narrowly between $75,400 and $76,100, with the RSI at 47, neutral to weak. The direction is undecided; tonight will reveal all.
First: The regulatory bill failed, but the real bomb will go off tonight.
The CLARITY Act’s procedural vote in the Senate failed 49-50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold and failing outright. The market waited 11 months, hoping it would break the deadlock, but instead got a bucket of cold water. BTC quickly fell from its intraday high, with long liquidations reaching hundreds of millions of dollars.
This news is a “known negative catalyst.” The market has already fallen 40%, and the bill’s failure had been partially priced in. The real bomb is tonight’s FOMC meeting.
Second: The probability of a rate hike tonight is 87%-92.5%, the first such hike since 2023.
The Federal Reserve is shifting from a rate-cutting cycle to a rate-hiking cycle, raising the target rate from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month, core inflation remains above 2%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%.
Borrowing has become more expensive, draining liquidity from risk assets.
The market has already partially priced in a rate hike, but the dot plot and Powell’s tone are the real weapons.
“Rate hike delivered but dovish” → short-term rebound; “rate hike + more hawkish” → test lower support.
Third: Technically, the market has reached a point where a choice must be made.
The daily MACD is bearish, short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, but there has been an attempt at a rebound after the Bollinger Bands touched the lower band. $75,000-$75,400 is a dense zone of recent lows and a psychological threshold, and it has held for a day.
But don’t forget—$76,500-$77,100 is short-term moving-average resistance, while $78,000 is the weekly line in the sand. If $78,000 cannot be reclaimed and held, the price will probe lower.
The bulls and bears face off; you decide.
On one side:
Long-term holders’ positions remain at elevated levels, with concentrated holdings at $62,000-$65,000 and $83,000-$86,000.
Cumulative ETF net inflows exceed $55 billion, with AUM of approximately $100 billion.
MARA added 1,292 BTC, worth approximately $98.6 million.
Supply remains rigid after the halving, while institutional access channels remain in place.
On the other side:
The CLARITY Act failed, leaving no short-term regulatory solution.
The probability of a rate hike tonight exceeds 87%, the first such hike since 2023.
Long leverage is elevated, amplifying liquidation risks.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5%, while real rates are weighing on the market.
Overhead resistance: $76,500-$77,100 → $78,000-$79,500
Downside support: $75,400-$75,000 → $73,200-$74,000
Trading strategy
Base case (rate hike delivered, neutral to hawkish):
The price may first dip to $75,400-$75,000 before rebounding. Try a small long position near $75,500, with a stop-loss below $74,800 and a target of $76,800-$77,200. Alternatively, wait 30-60 minutes after the decision before entering.
Bearish case (rate hike + more hawkish path):
After a confirmed break below $75,400, short on rebounds, targeting $73,500-$74,000, with a stop-loss above $76,200.
Bullish case (rate hike but dovish, or “sell the expectations, buy the fact”):
If $76,800 is firmly reclaimed on increased volume, chase a small long position, targeting $78,000-$79,500, with a stop-loss near $75,800.
In the medium to long term, positions can be built in batches around $75,000, but if real rates continue rising, wait for a lower-cost zone.
You fear the rate hike; institutions are waiting for the opportunities after the hike.
After a 40% plunge, the most expensive thing is not the coins—it is patience.
Those who survive tonight will be the ones qualified to talk about buying the dip.
If $78,000 cannot hold, don’t talk about a bull market. If $75,400 cannot hold, don’t talk about a rebound.
FOMC tonight—are you going long, going short, or staying flat and watching the show? $BTC $ETH $SOL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

$Meme The comparable coin is $boner . Both coins are paired with U.S. stocks on the long platform, and both have been mentioned by the CEOs of the respective U.S. stocks. The difference is that $boner ’s stock CEO is supportive of Robin chain’s coin-stock project and interacts with Vlad. For $Boner ’s paired stock, an approving reply from the CEO is a top-tier assist, which was immediately reflected on the candlestick chart, like an erection. In contrast, $meme ’s CEO toward Vlad

$BTC is still holding support.
A 4H close below this level could open the door for another drop.

“When the market’s going up, they talk reason; when it’s going down, they talk trash; they go on and on about the macro, but never place a single trade.” Hahahahahaha, I’m dying. I instantly thought of so many people 🤣

Sometimes—no, most of the time, traders are just like this.

A Pipeline Rupture Is Draining Liquidity From the Crypto Market
You think it’s the Middle East at war. In reality, your leverage is being ground into the floor by the Fed’s rate-hike expectations.
Let’s start with something most people missed.
On September 11, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was bombed by a drone flying from the direction of Iraq.
The pipeline has a daily oil transport capacity of 7 million barrels and is Saudi Arabia’s only alternative route for exporting crude while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Once the pipeline stops, Saudi Arabia can only rely on inventories at Yanbu Port to hold out—approximately 25 million barrels, enough for 8 days.
What happens after 8 days? Saudi Arabia has already begun notifying European refineries that it is canceling September orders, with at least three shipments postponed to November.
Meanwhile, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 17, while those passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have dropped to 38. Both strategic chokepoints have been squeezed at the same time.
The first link in the transmission chain: oil prices.
Dated Brent—the key benchmark in Europe’s physical market—broke above $132 per barrel, reaching its highest level since April.
ICE Brent futures hit $108.75 per barrel, while WTI broke above $105 per barrel. The U.S. national average diesel price broke above $6 per gallon for the first time. VLCC tanker freight rates hit a record high.
Middle Eastern sour crude exports have already fallen 65% year over year, from 16.88 million barrels per day a year ago to 5.88 million barrels per day.
Oil prices didn’t just rise a little—the supply structure is breaking apart.
The second link is here: inflation, then rate hikes.
As oil prices surged, U.S. inflation data exploded in tandem.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in August, above expectations. PPI accelerated to 5.4% year over year.
The market’s probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged from 38% before Jackson Hole all the way to 92.4%.
CME FedWatch data is crystal clear: the probability of rates remaining unchanged is down to just 7.6%.
All 16 of the 16 institutions now expect a September rate hike. Goldman Sachs changed its view, JPMorgan changed its view, and even HSBC revised its outlook—expecting 25-basis-point hikes in both September and December.
This is not “a possible rate hike.” The market already considers a rate hike a certainty.
The third link hits your holdings directly.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5.004%, reaching its highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield surged to 5.399%, also its highest level in 19 years.
A risk-free yield above 5% means the opportunity cost of holding BTC is surging, since Bitcoin generates no cash flow. Capital is flowing from speculative assets into yield-generating assets.
BTC fell below $77,000, retreating from its September high of $82,278. $76,000 is the next key support level; if it breaks, the price could head straight for $74,000-$75,000.
Ethereum is worse off, falling to $2,389, down 5.83% and weaker than BTC.
On September 15, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.4 million in net outflows in a single day. The Fear and Greed Index plunged directly from 69 to 52.
Panic doesn’t arrive gradually. It happens overnight.
The complete transmission chain looks like this:
An Iraqi drone bombed a Saudi pipeline → Brent surged to $132 → U.S. inflation expectations rose → the probability of a September Fed rate hike reached 92.4% → the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% → Bitcoin fell below $77,000 → your leveraged long position was liquidated.
You think it’s the Middle East at war, but in reality, your leverage is being liquidated by the Fed’s rate-hike expectations.
The ammunition cost of this war is being deducted from the account of every crypto long.
Everyone is now waiting for the Fed’s September 16 rate-setting meeting.
But one thing is more important than the outcome: when the risk-free rate exceeds 5%, what makes you think you can convince yourself to keep holding an asset that generates no cash flow?
That question is more lethal than the rate hike itself.$BTC $BZ $CL #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议

This round has fully automated the minting and redemption of 4Stock. You can now use USDC directly to mint and redeem 4Stock in both directions. Just click Mint or Redeem on . The backend will automatically buy or sell the corresponding underlying U.S. stocks. Each transaction is limited to between 100 and 2000 shares. The fee is 1% on both sides, and the Gas fee is fixed at 0.1 U.

CLARITY Act, why didn’t it pass? It passed the House with 294 votes and passed the committee 15:9. Republicans made 126 changes at the Democrats’ request, and even the White House had signed off on the final version. The result was 49:50, 11 votes short of the 60 needed to begin formal debate. The bill with the highest level of consensus in the history of the U.S. crypto industry fell at the final step. Why? Because Trump made too much money from cryptocurrency?

This round fully automated 4Stock minting and redemption. You can now directly use USDC to mint and redeem 4Stock in both directions. Just click mint or redeem on . The backend will automatically buy or sell the corresponding U.S. stock holdings. The limit per transaction is between 100 and 2000 shares. The fee is 1% on both sides, and the gas fee is fixed at 0.1 U.

CLARITY Act, why didn’t it pass? 294 votes passed it in the House, it passed the committee 15:9, and Republicans made 126 changes at Democrats’ request. The final version was even signed by the White House. The result was 49:50, 11 votes short of the 60 needed to begin formal debate. The bill with the highest level of consensus in the history of the U.S. crypto industry fell at the final step. Why? Because Trump made too much money from cryptocurrency?

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the FOMC rate decision will be announced, followed by a press conference at 2:30, along with economic projections and the dot plot. As of today, interest rate futures have priced in an approximately 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke back above 5% during the session. The market is no longer trading on whether there will be a rate hike, but rather on whether further hikes will follow, making Warsh’s remarks and the dot plot especially important.
If the Fed hikes by 25 basis points but Warsh does not signal a series of further hikes afterward, the current decline may have already fully priced in the rate hike expectations.
Conversely, if Warsh remains hawkish and continues to emphasize fighting inflation, while the dot plot also indicates expectations for further rate hikes, the market will enter a “rate hike cycle” and continue to decline.
Therefore, tonight’s situation remains complicated. We will wait for clues from Warsh’s stance.
$BTC $XAU
{spot}(BTCUSDT)

$450 million flowed out in one day? I’m done! Comparable to June bear market levels.
The Fear & Greed Index has fallen from Greed back to Neutral, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield just surpassed 5%, and the Fed’s decision is coming today.
Watch out for volatility.

Machi (machibigbrother) gave back the $12.3 million in gains from rolling long positions on ETH in August after ETH fluctuated slightly several times in September: only $1 million remains. His success and failure both came from rolling long positions: Machi (machibigbrother) capitalized on ETH’s rise from $1,900 to $2,500 in August, turning $150,000 into $12.3 million. In September, ETH traded between $2,400 and $2,600

Same feeling. Compared with Powell’s time, the U.S. these days may not be saying anything, but it somehow feels like it has already said everything. Especially with prediction markets, things have become more transparent, and most news is basically heavily traded before it materializes.