BTC at $78,100—would you dare chase it?
Look at the surface first: three major bearish blows, but the price has stopped falling.
On September 15, a large bearish candle drove BTC down to around $76,000, scaring retail investors into panic-selling overnight. But what happened? Long lower wicks formed on September 16–17, and a bullish candle on the 18th directly reclaimed $78,100. Over 24 hours, it rebounded 2% from $76,200. Someone is firmly defending $76,000—don't hand over your coins in panic.
First: the rate hike has been delivered, but the market didn't collapse.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16–17. The dot plot was hawkish, hinting at a possible additional hike this year. As soon as the news broke, BTC instantly plunged to $76,000.
Sounds scary? But look at the chart—the price recovered right after the plunge.
What the market fears most is "not knowing whether rates will be raised." Now that the decision is out of the way, it has instead given the bulls a chance to catch their breath. Oil prices have recently pulled back, tech stocks have rebounded, and risk appetite is recovering.
Second: shorts were liquidated, but this isn't a new bull market.
From September 17–18, roughly tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions were liquidated, driving the price rapidly back above $78,000 from $76,300. A typical leveraged short squeeze.
This rebound wasn't driven by buying pressure—it was driven upward by shorts being forced to close.
A total of $750 million flowed out on September 15–16, turning positive at just $159.5 million on the 17th. Spot buying did not expand in tandem at all.
A short squeeze ≠ a trend reversal. This is a technical recovery, not the starting point of a new bull market.
Third: on-chain data tells you a painful truth.
Corporate treasuries bought only 5,900 BTC over the past three months, at an average cost of $80,500—most companies are currently sitting on unrealized losses.
But on the other hand: the share of spent outputs in loss has fallen from nearly 60% to 27%, while long-term holders are still quietly accumulating. The long-term downtrend in exchange reserves remains unchanged.
In plain English: those who can't hold on are selling at a loss, while those who can hold are picking up the coins.
Below $76,000 is the psychological defense line for most people. Hold it, and the market moves sideways to the upside; lose it, and $71,300 comes into view.
The bulls and bears are battling it out—judge for yourself
On one side:
The rate hike has been delivered, exhausting the short-term bearish catalyst
Over $100 million in shorts liquidated, with selling pressure temporarily exhausted
Long-term holders are still accumulating, while exchange reserves are declining
The House of Representatives is advancing a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, and VanEck is calling for $100,000 next year
On the other side:
ETF flows are unstable, and institutions are deleveraging
Corporate treasuries are sitting on unrealized losses, while new buyers remain on the sidelines
Funding rates have turned positive (bulls are paying), making the market somewhat crowded
$79,800–$82,000 is a dense supply zone, with massive resistance
Resistance above: $78,500–$79,000 → $79,600–$79,800 (key) → $82,000 (September high)
Support below: $76,800 → $76,200–$76,500 (rock-solid floor) → $75,500 → $71,300 (short-term holder cost basis)
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to $76,800–$77,200 to cautiously go long, with a stop-loss below $76,000 and an initial target of $78,800–$79,200; take partial profits. Add to the position after a high-volume breakout above $79,500, targeting $81,500–$82,000.
Bearish scenario:
If BTC fails to hold above $78,500 and a 4H candle shows a long upper wick plus high-volume stagnation, cautiously try a short around $79,000, with a stop-loss above $79,800 and targets of $76,500–$75,800.
Breakout confirmation:
A daily close holding above $79,800 + consecutive ETF inflows → add to longs, targeting $82,000–$86,000
Break below $75,500 and hold → opens the way to $71,300; reassess bottom-fishing then
At $76,000, you're afraid of a collapse; at $78,000, you're afraid of chasing the top.
So when exactly do you want to buy? Will you wait until $100,000 to slap your thigh in regret?
In the short term, this is a range-bound market—don't mistake a short squeeze for a new bull market. But in the medium to long term—if rates are raised only once or twice more, ETFs resume inflows, or the $82,000 supply zone is absorbed, any one of these conditions being fulfilled will make BTC redefine what "digital gold" means to you.
At $78,100, would you dare add to your position?
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