Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

If you’ve been following the market around earnings reports, now is a good time to do some homework in advance.
Before every earnings report, there are really only two questions everyone cares about: Is there still an opportunity to enter now? And if so, how should you think about going long or short?
I happened to come across an analysis written by Zhu Erdan, and personally, I think Section “4” is worth taking a close look at. It lays out corresponding strategic ideas for both long and short positions. At the very least, before deciding whether to enter, you can have one more reference point instead of simply following your emotions.
Of course, a strategy is just a strategy. How the market moves still depends on its actual performance, so don’t rush to place an order just because you’re afraid of missing out.
If you’re interested, you can read it yourself 👇

#Bitcoin is approaching a key decision point.
$BTC bounced from the Daily MA 50 and is trading near $83,000.
Here are the levels to watch:
• Support: $80,960
• Resistance: $87,500
The next major catalyst arrives on October 14 with the US CPI report.
Will Bitcoin break toward $87.5K or retest support first?
The next move could set the tone for the market.

Have you checked out the latest campaign on Gate yet?
The new Gate x Ondo Dual Campaign brings two opportunities together, giving users different ways to participate based on their preferences.
$BLKHION Launchpool: Stake USDT and explore the campaign’s $150K+ reward pool.
OIP Soft Staking: Hold OIP to access 8% APR, with no lock-up period.
Whether you prefer staking USDT for Launchpool rewards or keeping things flexible with Soft Staking, make sure you understand the terms before joining.
🔗 Check out the campaign here:
Which one would you explore first: $BLKHION Launchpool or OIP Soft Staking?
#GateBooster #OndoIntelligentPortfolios #BLKHION

STRK at $0.086—would you dare to buy the dip?
It pumped from $0.05 to $0.126 in just 4 days, then crashed back to $0.086 in another 2 days. Everyone is shouting “L1 + quantum resistance is taking off,” but with the unlock the day after tomorrow and CPI tomorrow—is this the bottom you’re buying, or are you catching it halfway down?
First, the surface view: a normal pullback after a surge, with the daily chart still above the moving averages and RSI only a little above 60—not oversold.
STRK doubled over the past month and rose 65% in 7 days, surging to $0.126 on October 11, a nearly 10-month high. Then a large bearish candle on the 12th sent it to just above $0.08, down 30% in a single day. It is still down 14%-18% over the past 24 hours today, trading in the $0.082-$0.107 range.
The candlesticks tell you this: $0.086 is exactly at the 50% retracement level from the $0.048 launch point to the $0.126 high. The daily EMA20 ($0.06) and EMA50 ($0.047) have both held, so the broader structure is intact. Every technical trader is shouting: a 50% retracement is a golden opportunity—buy the dip!
But let me ask you one thing:
Have you ever seen a “normal pullback” that starts with the first high-volume long bearish candle after a sharp pump, with an unlock coming the day after tomorrow?
First: The L1 narrative is only a “consideration”
At Token2049 on October 8, StarkWare’s Eli Ben-Sasson said they were considering becoming independent from Ethereum as an L1 and building the first quantum-resistant network in 2027.
The market priced that statement in immediately. STRK surged from $0.05 to $0.126 in a few days.
But note: this is only a “consideration”—there has been no governance approval, migration timeline, or mainnet launch date.
In plain English:
The project team said, “I might do something big in 2027,” and the market treated it as “already done.”
On-chain activity and fee revenue have lagged far behind the price increase. This rally is a valuation repricing, not a fundamental transformation. $0.12 has already priced in a substantial portion of the story.
What does it mean to buy the rumor and sell the fact? This is it.
Second: 127 million tokens unlock on October 15, and leverage will amplify the selling pressure
The day after tomorrow, October 15, approximately 127 million STRK will unlock, equivalent to 3.4% of the circulating supply and worth more than $10 million at the current price.
Doesn’t sound like much?
But look at the current market structure: 24-hour trading volume is $300-$400 million, nearly equal to the market cap. This is not a slow bull market; it is leverage and short-term trading driving the action.
After the sharp pump, futures open interest is crowded, funding rates are slightly positive, and longs are piled in.
An unlock at this point—even a sell-off of just over $10 million—could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
The negative catalyst is not huge, but appearing at the wrong time, it becomes a nuclear bomb.
Third: The macro backdrop is not favorable, and CPI is tomorrow
BTC is ranging between $82,000 and $84,000, while spot ETF outflows were clearly visible last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.2%, making liquidity extremely unfavorable for high-beta altcoins.
Tomorrow, October 14, is the U.S. CPI release.
The Federal Reserve has already raised rates once in September, and the market is wavering between “a pause in October and another hike in December.” If CPI comes in hotter than expected, a high-volatility coin like STRK will be the first to get cut.
An individual token’s narrative can move independently for a few days, but with an unlock coinciding with CPI, the margin for error is extremely small.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
The L1 + quantum-resistant narrative has substantial upside potential toward 2027
The daily chart remains above EMA20/EMA50, and the broader structure is intact
Protocol-side v0.14.4, mobile proving, and staking vaults support the long-term story
$0.086 is exactly the 50% retracement, which technical traders see as the decisive zone
On the other side:
L1 is only a “consideration,” with no governance approval or timeline
127 million tokens unlock on October 15, with leverage crowded
CPI tomorrow, 5.2% Treasury yields, and BTC ETF outflows
On-chain activity and fees are far behind the price
Based on a total supply of 10 billion, the FDV is nearly $900 million—not cheap
The key level is $0.086, with $0.100 as the life-or-death line above and $0.082 as the critical level below.
Resistance above: $0.088-$0.090 → $0.093-$0.096 → $0.100-$0.103 (round number + crash starting point) → $0.120-$0.127 (previous high)
Support below: $0.082 (24-hour low; a break would accelerate the decline) → $0.074-$0.078 (61.8% retracement) → $0.065-$0.068 → $0.050-$0.055 (the bulls’ final line of defense this cycle)
Daily bullish, hourly bearish. A classic case of the larger trend remaining intact while distribution occurs on the smaller timeframe.
Trading strategy
Short term (before the unlock, before October 15):
Default to waiting, or only short rebounds; do not chase longs.
$0.082 is today’s critical level. If the 1-hour chart fails to reclaim it, the next range to watch is $0.074-$0.078, followed by $0.065 if weakness continues.
If it rebounds to $0.093-$0.096 but volume fails to keep up and another long upper wick appears, that is a place to reduce positions or open a short, with a stop-loss above $0.100.
Only a high-volume 4-hour close above $0.100 would show that the sell-off has been bought back up; then watch $0.110/$0.120. Until then, treat every rebound as an escape rally.
On the unlock day and afterward:
If it drops to $0.074-$0.078 or even $0.065 on the 15th while BTC holds its levels, you can try a small position for a rebound, with a stop-loss 4%-5% below the low at entry and initial targets of $0.088, followed by $0.096.
If it does not fall on the unlock day and instead breaks directly above $0.100, that means spot buyers absorbed the selling pressure; follow then, and do not guess in advance.
Once the daily chart closes below $0.050, this L1 narrative trade is over and the market returns to bear-market consolidation—do not hold through it.
Position-sizing rules:
Keep the total risk from perpetuals to a very small portion of your account, with a maximum loss of 1%-2% of net worth per trade.
Funding rates are currently slightly positive and futures open interest is high, with longs crowded. Prioritize protection against wick hunts; do not use high leverage to “buy the dip” at $0.086 and end up catching it halfway down.
STRK now looks like ARB in 2025—
An L2 leader, an upgraded narrative, and a grand ecosystem—everyone thinks “this time is different.”
And the result?
Unlock sell-offs, a narrative disproven, and the price halving from the high, then halving again.
In crypto, after a coin doubles, any “positive catalyst” could be fireworks set off to facilitate distribution.
$0.086 is the waist of the sharp pump, not the bottom.
If $0.100 cannot be reclaimed, there are no bulls. If $0.082 is lost, watch $0.078 and $0.065.
The real events are the unlock the day after tomorrow and CPI tomorrow.
Keep the story, but wait for price and events to give a signal together.#GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #韩股大跌你会抄底吗 $BTC $STRK $ETH

The A7 International platform under Russia’s PSB Bank is officially launching today. Essentially, it is a superhighway that seamlessly connects USDT with the traditional SWIFT system.
In simple terms, you can use USDT directly to pay invoices from overseas suppliers, while the recipient receives a regular SWIFT wire transfer in the fiat currency you specify.
Even more remarkably, their fee is fixed at just 0.3%, which is highly competitive in today’s cross-border settlement market.
Today, October 13, at 10:13 UTC (18:13 Beijing time), PSB Bank Chairman Petr Fradkov and A7 CEO Ilan Shor will also host a livestream to personally reveal how it works. The livestream link is
To be honest, after watching developments over the past few years, stablecoins are clearly no longer just a niche game for crypto insiders. They are steadily eroding and restructuring the underlying clearing network of global trade. As compliant capital and national-level financial institutions begin using crypto to bypass traditional friction, the era of a new-generation payment system is truly accelerating toward us!

The market’s just been whipsawing and messing with our heads lately. Luckily, I woke up early today and helped the guys in the group catch a long trade.

NEAR at $5.15—are you panicking?
It doubled in a month, the ETF launched, buybacks are backed by real cash, and the issuance reduction proposal is on the table—yet today a big bearish candle slammed it down 10%, wiping out a round of long positions. Is this a pullback to pick up buyers, or are smart-money players fleeing?
First, the surface: NEAR surged from 2.3 to 6 over the past 30 days, doubling and returning to the top 20 by market cap. Bitwise’s spot ETF (NRR) listed on September 29, with $58 million flowing in during its first week; Intents cross-chain volume hit $4.76 billion in September, up 73% month-on-month; the inflation proposal would reduce annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%. Everyone is shouting, “NEAR is due for a revaluation.”
Then today: it crashed from 5.89 to 4.89, down 10%. Your 5.15 is a weak rebound after the plunge, not a new breakout.
This is not a slow bleed—it is profit-taking after doubling in a month, compounded by a macro-driven sell-off.
First: the ETF channel is open, but its size is too small to absorb the volatility.
Bitwise’s NEAR ETF saw $58 million in inflows in its first week, with another $13 million per week recently and $4 million on individual trading days. Sounds good?
But look closely: BTC and ETH spot ETFs are seeing outflows, while NEAR still has net inflows, showing that institutions are indeed buying. But this amount of money cannot hedge against a one-day sell-off of more than ten percent. The institutional channel is genuinely open, but don’t treat it as a lifeline. Its scale is still small and cannot support high-beta volatility.
Second: Intents buybacks are real cash flow, but a $6.9 billion market cap is still expensive for this level of buybacks.
September Intents cross-chain swaps totaled $4.76 billion to $4.8 billion, up 73% month-on-month, with cumulative volume reaching $31 billion to $33 billion. Part of the fees is used to buy back NEAR. This is the core reason this rally can be described as having “cash flow,” and it is far more substantial than tokens issued by pure ecosystem funds.
But do the math: the buyback volume is a drop in the ocean relative to a $6.9 billion market cap. The fundamentals are cleaner than during the 2024–25 wave of “user-count-only” narratives, but a $6.9 billion market cap is still expensive relative to the current real buyback scale. This is a trading asset, not a bargain.
Third: the issuance reduction proposal has not passed yet—don’t treat it as implemented.
The annual issuance cap would be reduced from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months, meaning 12 million fewer tokens issued over two years and 66 million fewer over six years. The direction is favorable for bulls, but neither the vote nor implementation has been delivered. Moreover, stakers receive approximately 90% of issuance, so reduced issuance will pressure staking yields, and validators may not unanimously support it. It is still at the proposal stage, so don’t pop the champagne early.
Technical outlook: the first sharp drop within an uptrend, not confirmation of a bottom.
The daily structure has not broken: price is still near the 20-day moving average (around 5.05), and well above the 50-day (around 3.9) and 200-day averages. Daily RSI is around 58, neutral; weekly RSI has touched 70, meaning this rally has already overheated the weekly chart. The 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, and today’s candle is a continuation of the decline after a long upper wick at elevated levels.
Volume is key. Weekend volume reached record levels, with daily spot plus futures volume reaching around $3 billion; today saw a high-volume decline. This kind of volume usually cannot be digested in one day. Oscillation between 4.90 and 5.40 is the baseline, not an immediate V-shaped return to $6.
On the derivatives side: open interest is around $280 million, the long-to-short account ratio is about 2.3, and retail remains tilted bullish; the funding rate is about -0.0085% per 8 hours, only mildly negative and not an extreme short squeeze setup. Today was mainly long liquidation, not shorts already being squeezed out.
The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself
On one side:
Bitwise ETF continues to see net inflows, opening the institutional channel
Intents cross-chain volume up 73% month-on-month, with buybacks backed by real cash
The issuance reduction proposal is directionally favorable for bulls
Daily structure intact, with support at the 20-day moving average
On the other side:
The ETF is too small to absorb a sell-off
The issuance reduction has not passed a vote, and expectations have already been priced in
A $6.9 billion market cap remains expensive relative to the buyback scale
On the eve of CPI, U.S. Treasury yields are at 5.2%+, and risk assets are deleveraging
The high-volume decline and bullish retail positioning suggest long liquidation may not be over
Key level: 5.15, just 5% from the 4.89 line in the sand and also just 5% from the first hurdle at 5.40.
Upside resistance: 5.37–5.40 (daily pivot, the first hurdle that must be reclaimed today) → 5.90–6.00 (previous high/round-number level)
Downside support: 4.89–4.90 (today’s low, the short-term line in the sand) → 4.73/4.82 (daily S1/weekly S1) → 4.30–4.46 (October 8 panic low)
Trading strategy
Longs (wait for confirmation, don’t go all-in now):
Condition: 4-hour close reclaims 5.37–5.40, with a subsequent retest holding above 5.15.
Targets: first leg at 5.60, second leg at 5.85–6.00. Above $6, with no new capital or passed issuance reduction vote, only reduce—don’t add.
Stop-loss: a move back below 5.05, or place it directly at 4.85.
Shorts (only trade a breakdown, don’t guess the top):
Condition: daily close below 4.89, followed by a failed rebound to 4.95–5.05.
Target: 4.75–4.82, with an extension toward 4.45.
Stop-loss: reclaiming 5.15 and failing to return below it for 15 minutes. Halve short positions before CPI as well.
Existing core positions:
For those with costs far below $4, 5.15 is not an exit point. Take half the profit on a rebound to 5.50–5.70, and move the stop-loss on the remainder up to 4.80.
For those with costs around 5.5–6.0, reduce on a rebound to 5.35–5.50. Don’t fantasize about breaking even at the original price before riding the next major leg up.
Three scenarios (the 48 hours after CPI):
Base case (more likely): range between 4.90 and 5.40 while waiting for the data. Position size below half of normal.
CPI-friendly + reclaiming 5.40: target 5.70–6.00. $6 is a reduction zone, not an accumulation zone.
Hot CPI + losing 4.89: drop to 4.70, and if weakness continues, 4.30–4.50. That is where the pullback buy point for this trend lies—not 5.15.
Track the issuance reduction vote, continued ETF inflows, and Intents buybacks separately. If two of the three are missing, $6 is the local top of this rally, not a consolidation midpoint.
NEAR now looks like SOL in 2025—
ETF, buybacks, issuance reduction—the three narratives are each more seductive than the last. But the price has already priced in most of the expectations.
The narrative remains, but your entry price determines whether you feast or take a beating.
The first sharp drop within an uptrend is not confirmation of a bottom.
Don’t go all-in at 5.15; wait for confirmation.
$6 is a reduction zone, not an accumulation zone.#GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #韩股大跌你会抄底吗 ￥$BTC $ETH $NEAR

$FIL ‌ Showing Strong Bullish Momentum!
$FIL is making a solid upward push, trading at $1.1710 with a +6.52% gain today.
After bouncing back from its 24-hour low of $1.0713,$FIL rallied to hit a high of $1.1804 on the 15-minute chart.
The token is building steady momentum across higher timeframes as well, showing +23.09% growth over the last 30 days and +48.39% over the past 90 days.
Trading volume remains active at 18.65M FIL ($21.81M USDT).
Keep an eye on resistance near $1.180 as bulls attempt a breakout!#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition #GateRanksTop2inCEXNetInflows

Warning! Semiconductor false breakouts are blowing up—stay far away from these ugly setups and don’t try to catch a falling knife!
1. Nvidia $NVDA
appears to be a false breakout at the moment. Next, we need to see whether the 50-day moving average can hold as support. If it does, the stock may consolidate briefly before making another run higher.
2. Apple $AAPL
has formed a very漂亮 cup-and-handle pattern, with capital continuing to concentrate in the market’s top-tier stocks.
3. Microsoft $MSFT
remains the undisputed core holding of the crowded trade. Its performance is still steady, with excellent downside resilience and sideways consolidation among the market leaders.
4. Google $GOOGL
found support near its flattening 200-day moving average and is attempting to turn higher. The chart is starting to look more interesting.
5. Amazon $AMZN
is barely holding on at the 50-day moving average, currently stuck in a precarious setup with little room for error.
6. TSMC $TSM
also suffered a false breakout. Leading semiconductor and AI chip stocks are facing significant short-term selling pressure.
7. AMD $AMD
broke below its 20-day moving average today, but given that it closed reasonably well into the end of the session, we’ll give it one more chance.
8. Micron Technology $MU
has recently become a danger zone that should be avoided entirely. Dragged down by its peers, it continued to gap lower in search of a bottom.
9. Western Digital $WDC
has remained firmly below its 200-day moving average for an extended period, showing considerable weakness.
10. Corning $GLW
is a representative name in the optical fiber and photonics sector and is currently at risk of losing its 200-day moving average.
11. Ciena $CIEN
looked pretty good a few days ago, but then plunged on heavy volume today, giving back all of its recent gains.
12. Lumentum $LITE
had an ugly session in the photonic chip sector today, forming a textbook false breakout. The entire optical communications sector is under heavy pressure.
13. Coherent $COHR
fell back below its 200-day moving average once again, and the trend is relatively weak.
14. ServiceNow $NOW
is a textbook example of gapping sharply higher at the open before being relentlessly sold off. The stock looked extremely ugly throughout the session, so don’t rush in to catch a falling knife in this kind of setup.
15. Okta $OKTA
Although the cybersecurity sector has been somewhat loose recently, it is still above its key moving averages. There is no need to panic for now—continue holding.
16. AXTI $AXTI
is clinging desperately to the 200-day moving average, struggling without showing much to speak of.
17. Energy ETF $XLE
The energy sector continues to perform strongly, setting another new closing high today.
Some stocks are desperately clinging to their moving averages, while others are quietly setting new closing highs!

Don’t add to your positions under any circumstances! The market is showing severe bearish divergence at the top—be careful not to get trapped at the peak!
1. The S&P 500 $SPY
has already entered the second half of the bull market, and every new high has been accompanied by bearish divergence. Prices are too far above the moving averages and will sooner or later pull back 10%-15% toward them. Don’t recklessly add to your positions now; keep your hands off and simply hold what you already have.
2. The Semiconductor ETF $SMH
, the lifeblood of AI, has not yet fully confirmed a bottom. This move may be nothing more than a weak rebound, and it has not broken through to a new high, leaving it at risk of plunging and creating a deep hole at any time. You must keep cash on hand. Don’t blindly go all in, and use a trailing stop to protect your profits.
3. The Nasdaq $QQQ
’s big tech stocks are in the same situation as the S&P 500: it is lonely at the top, with prices severely detached from the moving averages and obvious bearish divergence. Sooner or later, there will be a mean reversion toward the moving averages. For now, only short-term trades are appropriate. Don’t make any major moves; maintain balance and wait for a major opportunity.
A sharp crash and pullback are right around the corner.

Today’s AI U.S. stock information edge:
1. $Meta surged 4%, and released a new model, Muse Wonder. Zuckerberg called it the strongest model currently, comparable to $OpenAI $Anthropic
2. $CXMT announced a new product and will launch server memory by the end of the year. $MU $SKHY $SNDK plunged 5%
3. $AVGO plunged 3%. Broadcom’s CEO criticized AI investors for blindly gambling. Musk responded: Don’t cry when you’re in a casino
4. Quantum leader $IonQ plunged 10%! It acquired cybersecurity company Elisity for $1.3 billion. Because the deal was paid for with newly issued shares, shareholders expressed their displeasure by selling
5. Wall Street raised its price targets for three tech stocks: $MSFT → 665, $PLTR → 230, $MRVL → 350

The haze in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia is too severe
Many people have fallen ill
A team member passed out in the hotel
Moonlight couldn't reach them and thought something serious had happened
If there had been no reply for another two minutes, I would have made an overseas call
to ask the U.S. embassy to rescue them!

BTC fell, the Nasdaq fell, and South Korean stocks plunged 4%.
BTC fell from 87,000 to 81,000, and altcoins were a sea of red. You might think the crypto market was throwing a tantrum on its own. Then you open U.S. stocks and see the Nasdaq down 0.71%, with semiconductor stocks being hammered. Check the news again, and South Korea's KOSPI opens down more than 4%.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield: 5.70%.
When was the last time we saw this number? 2002. The dot-com bubble had just burst. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also surged to 5.32%, a 24-year high.
This means you can buy U.S. Treasuries and earn a 5.7% annualized return while doing nothing, backed by the government's credit, with zero risk.
Now tell me, why would you put your money in BTC? Why put it in Nvidia?
This is the gravitational pull of interest rates. When the risk-free rate rises to this level, the appeal of all high-risk assets is being repriced.
And this number has not peaked yet.
The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points in September. Minutes released on October 7 showed that 9 of the 18 officials believed another hike would be needed before year-end. The market's probability of a December rate hike has already exceeded 80%. In other words, 5.70% is very likely not the endpoint.
Brent crude has climbed above $110, while passage through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume. Energy prices are directly pushing up inflation expectations. At the same time, U.S. government debt continues to swell, while demand at Treasury auctions weakens—supply exceeds demand, prices fall, and yields rise.
High interest rates + high oil prices + high fiscal deficits: this triple-high combination offers no short-term solution.
On October 8, BTC fell below the $81,500 support level, triggering a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions. Within 24 hours, $1.16 billion was liquidated across the market, 90% of it from long positions. Some 190k accounts were affected.
BTC ETFs saw $484.9 million in net outflows that day, the largest single-day outflow since June 25. Ethereum ETFs were even worse, recording net outflows every trading day since September 29. Since October began, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of $386.3 million, completely dashing the “Uptober” rally.
Altcoins need no further explanation. BTC falls 3%, while altcoins fall 10% to 30%. With thin order books and poor liquidity, the same $1 million sell order might move the BTC market by only 0.1%, but create a 5% gap in an altcoin.
But if you think this is merely a problem within the crypto market, you are completely wrong.
The Nasdaq hit a record high in early October, then failed to hold it. At the October 12 close, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.71%, while semiconductor stocks were crushed by aggressive selling.
BTC fell from 87,000 to 81,000.
The Nasdaq pulled back from its high.
South Korea's KOSPI opened down more than 4%.
Global risk assets are falling within the same gravitational field. That gravitational force is interest rates.
The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has continued to rise over the past two years—this is no coincidence. Fundamentally, they are both “the longest-duration assets.” What does that mean?
Bonds have duration, which represents their sensitivity to interest rates. The longer the duration, the greater the price volatility when interest rates move. BTC, Nasdaq technology stocks, and small-cap stocks all tell stories based on “future growth.” When future cash flows are discounted back to the present, a change in interest rates causes valuations to swing sharply.
The rising correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is not because BTC has weakened, but because in the face of interest rates, all assets are merely bonds with different durations.
A 5.70% 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is the master valve. When it tightens, the faucets for all risk assets close at the same time.
What should we watch next?
On October 14, September CPI data will be released. This is the final inflation report before the FOMC meeting. Barclays and Morgan Stanley forecast that headline CPI could rise from 3.4% to 3.7%, with the energy component as the main driver.
If CPI exceeds expectations, rate expectations will rise further, and risk assets could suffer another wave of selling. If it comes in below expectations, BTC and the Nasdaq could see some short-term relief.
But remember: relief does not mean a reversal. The 5.70% Treasury yield is still there. It will not disappear because of a single CPI report.#GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #韩股大跌你会抄底吗 ￥$BTC $XAU $QQQ

I haven’t had any big wins in a long time, and the overall market environment has gotten even worse this year.
I selectively got into two projects recommended by people I know. You have to be willing to make sacrifices to get results—don’t let them down!

When “geopolitical inflation” collides with “crypto liquidity,” this is a week that will determine the outcome
Bitcoin had just touched $84,254 before being knocked down by a barrel of oil.
Brent crude surged past $107 intraday, hitting a three-week high.
On Monday, Bitcoin briefly climbed to $84,254 as market sentiment was just beginning to recover. Then on Tuesday, Brent crude broke above $107 per barrel, while WTI rose above $94. Bitcoin immediately pulled back, with its intraday decline reaching 2.2% at one point.
It’s not just Bitcoin. Altcoins plunged across the board: BOME fell 30%, BLUR nearly 30%, and STRK 28%.
Oil rises, crypto falls. This causal relationship is the biggest trading logic of the week.
Why did oil prices suddenly go berserk? Because something happened in the Strait of Hormuz.
On October 11, six vessels were attacked in succession in and around the Strait of Hormuz—four oil tankers were hit by “unidentified projectiles,” one container ship was hit, and one oil tanker was attacked by a drone in the Gulf of Oman.
This waterway carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Any disturbance is immediately reflected in oil prices.
The transmission chain is actually quite simple.
Step one: Geopolitical risk ignites oil prices. A supply shock combined with a fear premium sent Brent crude from below $100 straight above $107.
Step two: Higher oil prices drive up inflation expectations. The market expects headline CPI to rise 0.6% month over month in September, the biggest increase in five months; year over year, it is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%. Gasoline prices jumped 9.23% month over month, serving as the core driver.
Step three: Inflation expectations boost rate-hike expectations, thereby weighing on crypto assets. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October at around 18%, but if CPI exceeds expectations, that figure will be repriced. And the risk asset taking the brunt of it is Bitcoin.
Three days this week, three tests.
Wednesday: September CPI. Headline CPI is expected at 3.7% year over year, with core CPI expected at 2.4%. The market is more focused on the core figure—if core inflation is stronger, rate-hike bets will resurface.
Thursday: PPI + retail sales. These will further verify whether the inflation transmission chain remains intact.
Friday: Wosh’s IMF speech. This will be his first public appearance since Jackson Hole. His last speech sent the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 35% to 57%. What about this time?
Three days of data will determine whether Bitcoin challenges $87K or retests $80K.
Put options account for 53.5% of options trading volume, with institutions increasing downside protection. Approximately $451 million in notional put options are concentrated in the $76,000–$80,000 range.
But on the other hand, long call positions have not been withdrawn. A large number of call options are targeting strike prices above $95,000.
Institutions are hedging against a drop but have not given up on the upside. This means uncertainty is simply too high—so high that no one dares to make a one-sided bet.
On-chain data points to two key levels.
Around $84,500, approximately $180 million in sell-side liquidity is waiting. Around $82,000, buying support is waiting to absorb selling.
QCP Capital’s assessment: If BTC decisively breaks above $87,000, the next target could be $94,000.
But for now, the battle between these two levels is the main battlefield of the week.
Former Goldman Sachs chief strategist Robin Brooks said current oil prices may have priced in an excessive risk premium—the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is actually far better than during the most tense period.
In other words: If geopolitical panic subsides, oil prices fall, and inflation expectations cool, crypto assets can catch their breath.
But if high oil prices push CPI higher, rate-hike expectations are repriced, and the buying support at $80,000 may not hold.
What you are betting on is not the data, but the direction of geopolitics. And no one can guarantee a win in this gamble.
Every spike in oil prices is a silent warning to crypto bulls.
This week’s CPI will be the “health check” for this rebound—if it passes, BTC could challenge $87K; if it fails, the $80K support will be in serious jeopardy.#GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #韩股大跌你会抄底吗 $BTC $BOME $CL

$MOBY Brings An AI Focused Concept Into The Solana Ecosystem.
The Project Focuses On An AI Copilot Built Around Crypto Research, Portfolio Insights, And On-Chain Interactions, Exploring How AI Could Become More Integrated Into The Crypto Experience.
An Interesting Concept Worth Looking Into Further.
CA: Cy1GS2FqefgaMbi45UunrUzin1rfEmTUYnomddzBpump
As Always, DYOR Before Making Any Investment Decisions.

$STX ‌ has finally broken out of its range, and buyers are making a strong statement.
After defending $0.3779, STX pushed straight to $0.4400, flipping the short term structure in buyers’ favor. The hourly Supertrend is now at $0.3963, adding support to the recovery.
Key levels:
Support: $0.415–$0.420
Strong support: $0.396
Resistance: $0.440
Targets: $0.450 → $0.465
A clean hold above $0.415 could keep the momentum alive, while a break above $0.440 would open the next leg.
The breakout looks strong, but STX carries a Monitoring Tag, so confirmation matters more than chasing the candle.
$META ‌#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition #BTCUp1.17%

A7 is preparing to launch a service aimed at transforming the international payments landscape.
On October 13, A7 International will officially launch. A7 is an international settlement system developed by Russia’s PSB Bank.
The new service allows users to pay invoices issued by overseas trading partners using USDT, after which the funds are transferred to the recipient in a specified currency via a traditional SWIFT bank transfer.
The service is primarily intended for companies and entrepreneurs engaged in international trade, while also being available to individual users. A flat fee of 0.3% will be charged.
Petr Fradkov, Chairman of the Board of PSB Bank (PJSC Bank PSB), and Ilan Shor, CEO of A7, will jointly launch and introduce the service at 10:13 UTC on October 13 (18:13 Beijing Time).
📺 Watch the livestream:

Key Events This Week:
1. OPEC Monthly Report - Tuesday
2. September Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday
3. September CPI Inflation data - Wednesday
4. September PPI Inflation data - Thursday
5. Fed Chair Warsh Speaks - Thursday
6. Q3 2026 Earnings Season Begins This Week
Earnings season has officially arrived.
This is going to be a very big week. Super volatile.

看了一圈加密圈：
1，除了比特币，其他标的，无论是以太坊还是各个板块，感觉都调整得挺好的；
2，然后最恶心的地方就是，它们都调整得挺好，比特币调整得却不怎么样；
3，短线上没什么可研究的，研究也没法研究明白，因为确实怎么走都行；