Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

🚨 OLD BITCOIN IS MOVING AGAIN. 👀
CryptoQuant data shows increased movement of long-held $BTC since late September.
When long-term holders start moving coins, the market pays attention.
Is this profit-taking or just wallet transfers?
Worth watching closely. $BTC ‌

#Bitcoin drops below $83,000 as hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data triggers a fresh sell-off across crypto markets.
Inflation at 3.7% is now the third-highest reading since September 2023, fueling expectations of further Fed rate hikes through 2027.
Higher rates could keep pressure on risk assets.
Will $BTC hold key support, or is more downside ahead ?

Bitcoin’s next move could depend heavily on the upcoming CPI numbers.
🔹CPI below 3.6%: A bullish reaction could push BTC toward $84K–$85K.
🔹 CPI at 3.6%: Expect a relatively muted reaction, with BTC potentially moving sideways.
🔹 CPI above 3.6%: Higher inflation could trigger selling pressure and push BTC toward $82K.
The key is how the actual data compares with market expectations. Volatility is likely, so stay cautious and manage your risk.
Which scenario are you betting on?

Bitcoin’s next move could depend heavily on the upcoming CPI numbers.
🔹CPI below 3.6%: A bullish reaction could push BTC toward $84K–$85K.
🔹 CPI at 3.6%: Expect a relatively muted reaction, with BTC potentially moving sideways.
🔹 CPI above 3.6%: Higher inflation could trigger selling pressure and push BTC toward $82K.
The key is how the actual data compares with market expectations. Volatility is likely, so stay cautious and manage your risk.
Which scenario are you betting on?

$BTW , the longs are enjoying this run, while those who kept adding to their shorts are the ones suffering. Calling it a shitcoin with an inflated market cap may both be fair. But saying it isn’t worth this price and making money from shorting it are two different things.
Everyone says the market maker controls the price, yet they still go in and short it—isn’t that just betting on when it will sell off? You think it has risen enough, but it may think it still has a long way to go. The more they lose, the more unwilling they are to accept it; the more unwilling they are to accept it, the more they add to their positions. In the end, they just want to save face.
But that pride comes at a steep price🥲

$BTW —longs are feeling great this time, while those who kept adding to their short positions are suffering. Calling it a shitcoin and saying its market cap is inflated may both be right. But “it isn’t worth this price” and “you can make money shorting it” are two different things.
Everyone says the market maker controls the price, yet you still short it—isn’t that just betting on when they’ll sell? You think it has risen enough, but they may think it’s still early. The more you lose, the more unwilling you are to accept it; the more unwilling you are to accept it, the more you add to your position. In the end, you just want to save face.
But that pride comes at a hefty price. 🙂

What do you think about tonight’s CPI?
The previous reading was 3.4, and the forecast is 3.6. The market action over the past few days has already reflected the market’s assumption that inflation will rebound in September.
So as long as the figure is in line with expectations, it should not be a major negative catalyst.
The main thing to watch is core CPI, which is expected to come in at 0.2. This is the inflation data excluding energy.
As long as the core figure does not exceed expectations, the impact from energy will be in line with market expectations.
In summary, watch the core CPI data. A reading above 0.2 would be bearish and increase expectations for a rate hike in October. A reading at or below 0.2 would be in line with expectations, and the market is expected to stop falling and rebound.

How do you view tonight’s CPI data?
The previous reading was 3.4, and the forecast is 3.6. The market’s performance over the past few days has already reflected the market’s assumption of a rebound in September inflation.
Therefore, as long as the figure comes in line with expectations, there should basically be no major downside catalyst.
The main thing to watch is the core CPI data, which is expected to be 0.2. This is the inflation data excluding energy.
As long as the core figure does not exceed expectations, the impact from energy will be in line with market expectations.
In summary, watch the core CPI data. A figure above 0.2 would be bearish and increase expectations of a rate hike in October. A figure at or below 0.2 would be in line with expectations, and the market is expected to stop falling and rebound.
$XAU $CL
{future}(XAUUSDT)

ETH at $2,500— which side are you betting on tonight?
ETF outflows have lasted 10 straight days, BitMine's buying has stopped, ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.03, and 2400 has been tested twice—tonight's CPI could decide with a single wick whether you profit or get liquidated.
First, the surface picture: after the double wick at 2400, ETH has been grinding around 2500, funding rates have been washed out, but momentum is still bearish and institutional buying has dried up. 2500 is only suitable for reducing positions or staying on the sidelines, not for opening new ones.
Spot and perpetuals are both clustered around 2490–2530. Your 2500 is almost today's midpoint. A week ago, ETH was still at 2720; over the past two weeks, two wicks pushed it to just above 2400. There is no support above 2700, while 2400 saw dip-buying but no trend money follow through. This is weak consolidation after a leverage washout, not the start of a major uptrend.
First: the ETF is running, and BitMine has finished buying—the clearest source of buying pressure is exiting.
U.S. spot ETH ETFs had seen approximately 10 consecutive trading days of outflows by 10/12, with roughly $700–800 million flowing out since late September. On 10/13, there was a small net inflow of approximately $24.8 million, driven by Grayscale's staking mini trust. That was merely bleeding control, not a reversal. ETH ETFs still have net outflows over the past 30 days, while BTC ETFs saw approximately $2 billion in net inflows over the same period.
BitMine (Tom Lee) holds approximately 6.03 million ETH, accounting for about 4.9% of circulating supply, of which approximately 5.07 million has been staked. He said that he would stop after reaching 5%, and the company also said it had essentially finished buying. The clearest treasury buying in this cycle is exiting.
In plain English:
Institutions have stopped buying, ETFs are bleeding—who are you still waiting to provide the bid?
Second: ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.03. Going long ETH is essentially taking beta that is weaker than the broader market.
ETH/BTC fell below 0.03 on 10/12, the first time since August 19. At your current 2500, with BTC around 83,000, the ratio is sitting right at 0.03. ETH outperformed BTC in Q3, but in October capital has been moving back into the more liquid BTC.
Going long ETH is not going long Ethereum; it is going long beta that is weaker than the broader market.
With treasury buying stopped and ETFs still bleeding, ETH does not have the conditions for an independent move.
Until ETH/BTC retakes and holds 0.03, prioritize BTC in your risk budget and use ETH only as a satellite position.
Third: tonight's CPI is the trade itself.
The federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%. On September 16, the Fed unanimously hiked 25 bp, the first such hike since 2023. The October 7 meeting minutes showed that most officials considered another hike later this year appropriate, with upside inflation risks. The probability of a rate cut is priced at 0.
The consensus for tonight at 20:30:
Headline CPI: 3.6% year-on-year (previously 3.4%), approximately 0.6% month-on-month
Core CPI: 2.4%–2.5% year-on-year, approximately 0.2% month-on-month
The headline jump is already priced in; the trade is about core CPI. If core year-on-year rises to 2.5%, or month-on-month comes in at ≥0.3%, the probability of an October hike will be repriced sharply upward from 20%; yields and the dollar will move first, followed by ETH getting hit. Only core month-on-month at ≤0.2% with year-on-year holding at 2.4% would trigger short covering.
The bull-bear showdown—you decide
On one side:
The double wick at 2400; both lower wicks on 10/8 and 10/13 were bought back
Funding rates are near zero, with no crowded trade to unwind
The staking ratio is approximately 34%, thinning the circulating supply
Interactive Brokers has opened ETH staking, expanding access
ETH is still up 30%–50% over 90 days, making this a pullback within a rebound
On the other:
ETF outflows for 10 straight days, totaling approximately $700–800 million
BitMine's buying has stopped; the clearest treasury buyer has exited
ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.03, underperforming the broader market
Net issuance reached 778,000 ETH in 2026, with burns covering only 2%, resulting in net inflation
Staking yields are 3%–5%, while 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield 5.1%–5.2%, offering no competitiveness
Tonight's CPI; a core upside surprise means a selloff
Trading strategy
If you have long positions, reduce half at 2540–2580 and lock in the profit from the 10/13 wick. Before CPI, move your stop-loss to breakeven or below 2470; do not let one data release turn unrealized gains into losses.
After the data is released, trade only on closing confirmation; do not chase the first wick.
To go long, all of the following must be met:
A 4-hour close above 2550, followed by a retest that holds 2520 before adding.
Place the stop-loss below 2470.
First target: 2620; second target: 2700–2740. If the daily candle does not close back above 2580, treat it as a rebound and exit at 2620; do not hold for a larger move.
To go short, all of the following must be met:
A 4-hour close below 2480, followed by a failed rebound at 2500 before entering.
Place the stop-loss above 2530.
First target: 2410; second target: 2350. Only if the daily candle closes below 2400 should the targets be extended to 2300/2250. For shorts opened above 2400, reduce at 2410.
Dip-buying is reserved for one setup only:
Another wick down to 2410–2430, followed by a recovery above 2450 within 15 minutes. Stop-loss at 2380. This is the third test, so use half your normal position size. If it fails to recover, accept it and do not average down at the tip of the wick.
ETH now resembles its 2025 self—
The weekly bull market is not dead, but the daily bear trend is not over.
2500 is the observation zone, 2400 is the bull-bear dividing line, and 2580 separates a genuine rebound from a false one. #韩林博士受邀牛津大学辩论社演讲 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #Gate衍生品份额增幅全球第一 ￥$BTC $ETH $SOL

Before tonight’s CPI release, these key levels for several U.S. stocks must hold:
1. Tesla $TSLA
is currently consolidating and pulling back around 375, with short-term key support at 370 and 360. Although it has underperformed the other Mag 7 stocks this year, its weekly chart shows a large-scale bull flag consolidation. As long as the 360–370 support zone holds, combined with this week’s Roadster event and next week’s earnings catalyst, a high-volume breakout above the long-term resistance line could trigger a strong catch-up rally. Conversely, if support breaks, watch out for the risk of a pullback toward around 340.
2. SpaceX $SPCX
is currently pulling back after its rally, with the possibility of continuing lower in search of a bottom in the short term. Key levels to watch on the downside are around 154 and the low at 150, along with a value gap that needs to be filled and support from the 45-day moving average. The SMA indicator has already fallen into the bottoming region. As long as the price stabilizes in the 150–154 range and breaks above the descending trendline on strong volume, it could see a very attractive bottoming and rebound move.
3. Palantir $PLTR
has performed exceptionally strongly, firmly holding above the green-line support and continuing to close above it. As the 9-day moving average gradually catches up, the stock may move sideways or undergo a slight adjustment from its current level in the short term, forming a bull flag. As long as it holds the 9-day moving average, it will most likely continue its primary uptrend and remain a market leader.
4. Micron $MU
has shown weakness in the short term. Although it has lost the important rising trendline from the previous period, the SMA indicator has now bottomed, and the stock has formed a bullish candle signaling a potential bottom near the green Fibonacci support level. It is severely oversold in the short term and could see a dead-cat bounce at any time toward the 980–1000 dollar range. However, it remains to be seen whether it can regain its upward momentum afterward; for now, treat the short-term rebound as a technical pullback.
5. Robinhood $HOOD
is showing a very attractive and tight converging-wedge pullback pattern on the weekly chart, while the daily chart has also held the green Fibonacci support. The key line of defense is 105. Today’s close reclaimed the levels of multiple previous candles, showing that capital is flowing back in. As long as you remain patient, the target after a breakout will move back above 120–125.
6. Nebius $NBIS
is similar to Micron, with strong fundamentals but weak recent price action. It has currently lost its key trendline, but the SMA has bottomed and the stock is facing a liquidity sweep of the previous low. Technically, it is severely oversold in the short term and likewise has a need for a rebound toward the 210–220 dollar region. However, overhead resistance is significant, and it will take time to confirm whether this is an oversold rebound or a complete reversal.
7. Intel $INTC
has formed a very attractive bullish engulfing bottoming pattern on the daily chart and may also form a bottoming hammer on the weekly chart. The hourly chart has successfully broken above the descending trendline, meaning the phase of sharp short-term selling has essentially come to an end. The stock may next see a moving-average reversion rebound toward the 107–110 region.
8. Nasdaq 100 $QQQ
is currently in a standard descending-wedge consolidation pattern after pulling back to the 21-day moving average. Once it breaks above the previous high area on strong volume, a new upward breakout could erupt at any time, reawakening the broader market.
9. The S&P 500 $SPY
remains extremely strong, currently holding firmly above the 9-day moving average, with a very intact bullish structure. Although the current market favors indexes over individual stocks, causing many stocks to barely rise or even plunge, as long as the index holds its key moving averages, the broader market remains bullish.
Tesla’s Roadster is coming!

You bought $ETH with all your savings in 2021.

A sharp rise isn’t necessarily a good thing, and a sharp drop may actually be an opportunity to make money! In the stock market, nothing is absolute:
1. A sharp rise in a stock isn’t necessarily a good thing
It could be due to better-than-expected earnings, short-term speculation, or even major players using positive news to unload their positions.
2. A sharp drop in a stock isn’t necessarily a bad thing
It could be caused by deteriorating fundamentals, market panic, or short-term profit-taking.
3. A good company isn’t necessarily a good stock
No matter how excellent the company is, buying at too high a price can still result in losses.
4. Positive news doesn’t necessarily push the stock price higher
If the market has already priced it in, the stock may fall after the news is announced.
Don’t view things in black and white, and don’t cling rigidly to a single belief.
When prices rise, think about why they might fall. When prices fall, analyze whether there are conditions for a reversal. Before buying, consider what circumstances would prove you wrong. While holding a position, continue to validate your original thesis.

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
In January 2025, DeepSeek burst onto the scene, and Nvidia plunged 17% in a single day. The market said compute costs had collapsed and GPUs were doomed. Yet from that low, the stock more than doubled.
That summer, Kimi K2 ran the same script all over again. Cheap models never killed hardware demand. Instead, they sent inference demand exploding, because more people started using them.
Today, roughly 75% of people worldwide have never used an LLM. As AI evolves from the 80/20 rule into a daily task-running companion for everyone, memory demand will still be the first thing pushed to its limits. This time, the script is crazier than you might think!

$BTC has rebounded, but I’m actually not too eager to chase it right now.
The reason is simple: a price rebound does not mean the market has regained strength.
If ETF fund outflows continue, it means institutional buying has at least not yet provided a clear enough signal of returning. At this point, as $BTC moves higher, I’d rather view it as a rebound that still needs to be validated, rather than confirmation of a new uptrend.
My view is clear:
Be cautious about the rebound in the short term, but don’t rush to turn bearish in the medium term.
Going forward, if $BTC can hold above key resistance with rising volume, while ETF flows turn positive again, this move will have a better chance of developing from a rebound into a trend reversal.
But if prices continue to surge while fund flows remain slow to follow, be careful: what looks like a strong market could merely be a brief spike caused by insufficient liquidity.
As for $ETH, I’ll be even more cautious. It not only needs to show strength on its own, but also needs ETF outflows to stop. If $BTC cannot hold either, it will be even more difficult for ETH to sustain an independent rally.
So my strategy right now is neither blindly buying the dip nor panic-selling, but controlling the urge to chase gains and waiting for price and fund flows to provide more consistent signals.
A true trend reversal should involve more than just price movement—it also requires real money to enter the market.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto

$PYTH Market Update!
$PYTH showed strong bullish momentum today, pushing up to a 24-hour high of $0.08397 before experiencing a quick pullback.
It’s currently trading around $0.08018 (+2.54%), continuing to consolidate after the recent spike. 
Key metrics are looking solid:
24h Low: $0.07725 
30D Gain: +42.94% 
180D Gain: +68.16% 
Despite the short term retracement on the 15m chart, the broader trend remains strongly positive across medium-to long timeframes. 
Are you holding or waiting for a better dip to buy? Let us know below!
#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition #NvidiaPlans2BMoreForEuropeanAI