SpaceX filed a “money-losing” prospectus, and Wall Street is getting ready to bet on $2 trillion
Have you ever seen a company that loses $4.9 billion in a year, yet dares to call its valuation $2 trillion?
Don’t rush—there’s even crazier.
It holds more Bitcoin than Tesla. Its most profitable business isn’t rockets, and it isn’t AI—it’s “running internet cables to your home.”
—That’s SpaceX. It just submitted a prospectus, planning to list on Nasdaq, with the ticker SPCX.
First, look at the most gut-punching number
$18.7 billion in revenue, $2.6 billion in operating loss, and a net loss of $4.9 billion.
What does that mean? Meta earns over $50 billion a year, and in one year it loses the equivalent of a Xiaomi.
But Meta’s market cap is $1.5 trillion, and SpaceX wants $2 trillion.
Why?
Because the market is never pricing the “now”—it’s pricing the “future that many people believe in.”
Breaking it down: three business lines, only one “person” is supporting the household
Starlink: revenue $11.387 billion, profit $4.423 billion. This is SpaceX’s only—and all—cash cow. 10 million users worldwide, and it’s still doubling.
Rocket launches: revenue $4.086 billion, loss $657 million. The engineering is legendary; the books are haunted.
AI (merged with xAI): revenue $3.2 billion, loss $6.355 billion. It consumes $12.7 billion in annual capital expenditures.
So the truth is this: all the money Starlink makes is used to feed rockets and AI. And even that isn’t enough.
What is the $2 trillion valuation really betting on?
Wall Street’s math is like this:
The launch business is worth $150 billion, Starlink $650 billion, and AI space computing $700 billion. The remaining $250–$500 billion is called the “Elon Musk premium.”
What’s in that premium? The prospectus says:
Plans to deploy AI data centers in space, applying to the FCC to launch 1 million satellites, to be used as low-Earth-orbit computing infrastructure.
Yes, you read that right. It’s not Starlink internet—that’s “Starlink mining”—not mining coins, but mining computing power.
SpaceX has already secured a cloud contract with Anthropic worth $1.25 billion per month, or $15 billion per year. Just that one customer is almost catching up to its current full-year revenue.
So the $2 trillion valuation isn’t betting on Starlink, and it’s not betting on the Falcon 9. It’s betting that Earth’s orbit becomes another Silicon Valley.
Bitcoin holdings: a carefully designed “anchor”
This prospectus also discloses for the first time: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, worth $1.29 billion, with an average cost of $35,000.
More than Tesla.
But do you really think Musk is trying to take the crypto world to the moon?
Stay calm. These bitcoins are sitting on the balance sheet—equivalent to “digital gold reserves.” For a giant looking to raise $75–$80 billion, it needs to tell traditional capital: look, I understand hedging too.
With $1.29 billion in BTC, in the face of a $2 trillion valuation, it isn’t even pocket change. Don’t expect it to pump the price—it’s just the gold tooth Musk uses to “dress up the facade.”
The most insane sentence
There’s a devilish detail hidden in the prospectus: Musk’s final compensation terms are written into the Mars colonization plan—
He can only receive the final 1 billion shares if a permanent settlement for 1 million people is built on Mars.
What does that mean?
It means every share of SPCX you buy is essentially a Mars lottery ticket.
No matter how profitable Starlink is, it can’t support a $2 trillion valuation. Only the narrative that “humans become an interplanetary species” justifies that number.
And Musk knows this very well: this narrative doesn’t need profits today—it only needs people to believe today.
So will you buy in?
This isn’t investing—it’s buying a faith ETF.
If you believe “space AI + interstellar internet” will explode within 10 years, today’s price may be cheap.
If you think Starlink is just a communications business, rockets are advanced logistics, and AI is still burning money—what you’re seeing is a super bubble of a company losing $4.9 billion a year with an 80x sales ratio.
Finally, one hard truth for you:
In history, every great bubble—before it bursts—is called faith. And every faith that ultimately comes true was called a bubble at the beginning.
Which one is SpaceX?
No one knows. But its IPO will definitely become the wildest gamble of 2026.
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