Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Last night, Brent crude’s settlement price surged 6.3% to $107.63 per barrel.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, reaching its highest level since October 2023.
CME data shows that the probability of a September rate hike surged from 49% a week ago to 71.3%.
Then you see Bitcoin ETF net outflows of $282.7 million.
Many people’s first reaction: institutions are fleeing.
Wrong.
Institutions haven’t fled; the “price of money” has changed.
Here’s the transmission chain, broken down:
Brent crude breaks above $100 → inflation expectations remain stubborn (July PCE rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.3%, both well above the 2% target) → the Fed is forced to take a hawkish stance → the cost of holding non-yielding assets surges → institutions reduce their BTC/ETH ETP exposure.
In plain English: U.S. Treasuries can sit there and yield you 4.8%, so why hold Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow?
This isn’t a matter of faith. It’s elementary math.
Therefore, this round of ETF outflows is essentially tactical rebalancing driven by rising interest-rate opportunity costs, not a strategic abandonment of crypto assets.
This is the number you should really focus on:
A JPMorgan research report shows that cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs total approximately $58.2 billion, while Ethereum has seen approximately $12.6 billion. “Early allocation capital has not yet withdrawn on a large scale.”
Translated: marginal positions are leaving, while core holdings remain unmoved.
Now look at the Coinbase Premium Index—it has been negative for five consecutive days, but the latest reading was only -0.042%. Compared with -0.1066% in mid-August, this is “weakly negative.”
U.S. buying hasn’t exited; it simply hasn’t formed sustained incremental demand.
The Premium Index was negative for 97 consecutive days from May to August, setting a record for the longest streak. It finally turned positive on August 24, only to turn negative again half a month later. This indicator has structurally become the default state of U.S. spot demand—positive readings are now the anomaly requiring explanation.
So what really needs to be watched?
What happens after the September 15–16 FOMC meeting concludes.
Before the rate hike takes effect, institutions naturally tend to reduce their risk exposure.
After the rate hike takes effect, if ETF funds begin flowing back in, it means this adjustment is a “buying opportunity,” not a “turning point.” If they do not return, then it will be necessary to reassess.
There is another deeper shift worth noting: crypto trading platforms such as Hyperliquid are forcing traditional finance to reform. CME launched 24/7 trading in 2026, and the S&P 500 Index has also been authorized to launch perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid for non-U.S. investors. Crypto platforms have evolved from fringe challengers into drivers of traditional market infrastructure.
So stop asking whether institutions have fled.
There is only one question that really matters: after the rate hike takes effect, will the money come back?
The price is falling not because no one believes in BTC anymore.
It is because, in the face of the 4.8% yield on U.S. Treasuries, all “non-yielding assets” have to temporarily give way.#Gate主流CEXTop4 #美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 #苹果发布会 $BTC $XAU $CL

GT is an asset I’ve always held. Normally, besides using it for activities within the Gate ecosystem, I also regularly participate in Launchpool.
After using it for a while, I think the biggest advantage of this model for me is that I don’t need to perform any complicated operations specifically for mining. I already hold GT, so I can simply stake it and let the rewards accumulate automatically every hour. Once the event ends, I withdraw my assets. The whole process is pretty seamless.
After participating in several rounds, I’ve gotten into the habit of looking at the current prize pool size, APR, and my GT holdings before deciding whether to put in more GT. I don’t blindly participate in every event I see.
This time, when I saw that the $GT mining pool’s APR exceeded 200% at one point during the 375th round, I found the yield quite attractive, so I put part of my GT holdings into mining $MCAT .
GT is an asset I plan to hold long term anyway. Rather than simply leaving it idle, I’m more inclined to participate when there’s an opportunity to earn additional returns. For this 2 million MCAT prize pool, I decided to start mining first and see how it goes.
Stake now:
More details:

📢 World Prediction Market is LIVE again🔥
@world_xyz is back and the prediction market is now accessible.
I completed my first transaction and it was successful 😬
- Open:
- Login Google or Wallet
⚠️ Rewards are not live yet, but they’re coming soon.

For quickly monetizing small accounts, you still have to check out Lighthouse. Picking up interactions every day can earn you around 100u a month. It’s hard to imagine how much you could make with multiple accounts. By the way, what does “premium selection” mean? Those who haven’t joined yet, go through my link 😭:

1. Large-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum move slowly, but steadily. If you believe the bull market has arrived, don’t try to be clever by repeatedly trading in and out of your spot positions. Why? Just review your previous trades. If you successfully timed every move during the last bull market, then keep doing it—you’re a skilled trader. If not, you should consider whether you’re simply being too greedy. 2. From a more optimistic perspective, this Ethereum cycle can be compared with Bitcoin’s previous cycle.

Record three points:
1. Bitcoin has currently dropped to a low of 76440, coming extremely close to 76219, the last starting point of the rise on the smaller timeframe. It can basically be confirmed that 82283 was the top on the smaller timeframe, and the correction began on September 4.
First, calculate the retracement range (Figure 1):
1. Structurally, if calculated as an M-top pattern, the 1:1 ratio places the decline between 70000 and 71000;
2. The 0.382–0.618 range of the main upward wave is 74713–70037, with 0.5 at 72376;

Today’s AI U.S. stock information gap:
1. $ORCL surges 10%! Earnings far exceeded expectations, AI data centers are beginning to generate revenue, and demand exceeds supply
2. Trump said Iran must be attacked, even if the midterm elections have to be ignored. The 30-year U.S. mortgage rate rose to 7.07%, and PPI increased 0.4% in August. Inflation is out of control
3. Elon Musk’s tunneling company solana:2dNQNWqfw7mDdLxmfbeqNuW57La4GDscCfP4uzX8JSB8 completed a $3 billion Series D financing round, bringing its post-money valuation to $23 billion. Investors included the UAE, Sequoia, a16z, and Temasek
4. Anthropic once again called out Qwen, Kimi, and DeepSeek for illegally distilling its models, using tens of thousands of fake accounts to conduct 200 million interactions and display Claude’s answers as their own
5. Is $OpenAI going to replace Wall Street? It partnered with Morgan Stanley and Evercore to launch ChatGPT for Financial, which conducts research and backtesting like an analyst, then generates PPTs in each bank’s style

PPI beating expectations pushed the probability of a rate hike above 70%; tonight’s CPI is the “final blow”
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.37%, the highest since 2007. Brent crude climbed above $107.
And guess what?
BTC fell. Gold fell. U.S. stock futures fell. Silver fell.
Four assets with seemingly nothing to do with one another plunged collectively at the same time and in the same direction.
People who bought Bitcoin can’t sleep, and neither can those who bought gold. The bulls’ faith in the stock market is nearly shattered, while bond yields continue to skyrocket.
It feels like—you thought someone in the room was sick, only to discover that the oxygen had been sucked out.
What is really killing your positions is not Trump, and not Iran.
It’s Treasury yields.
In plain English: the discount rate is killing everything.
The value of any asset is essentially the money it can earn in the future discounted back to today. What do you use to discount it? The risk-free rate. What is the risk-free rate? The Treasury yield. Right now, a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond can give you 5.37% interest—money you can earn while doing nothing, with no risk.
So why would you buy something that is extremely volatile, generates no cash flow, and whose valuation relies entirely on “future expectations”?
You can, of course. But your position has to be smaller. Your valuation has to be lower.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5.37% from the beginning of the year means the “discount rate” column in every asset model has been raised across the board.
Tech stocks are taking the hit first. The Nasdaq fell for four consecutive trading days, the S&P 500 dropped another 0.6% to 7,591 points on Thursday, and the Dow suffered a steep decline.
But there is another type of asset that fears discount rates even more than tech stocks.
BTC.
Bitcoin generates no cash flow. It pays no dividends. It pays no interest. Its value is built 100% on the expectation that “someone will buy it at a higher price in the future.”
It has no current cash flow. What it has are “future network effects,” “future consensus expansion,” and “future institutional participation”—all stories about the future.
When the discount rate rises, every “future story” gets discounted.
So when you see BTC fall from $79k to $76k, you may think it is some “independent event in the crypto market.” It isn’t. BTC’s chart has never been independent. It is the reflection of the 30-year Treasury yield; most people simply do not understand this mirror.
Last night’s data was what snapped the final thread.
U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year over year. The expectation was 5.3%. The previous reading was revised up from 4.7% to 4.8%.
The details are even more painful: the energy component surged 4.2% month over month, while diesel prices jumped 24.1% in a single month.
This is not “core inflation running out of control.” It is an exogenous energy-cost shock directly offsetting the hard-won progress in bringing inflation down.
Brent crude climbed above $107 because the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated from rhetoric to action. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, while Iran claimed to have attacked multiple U.S. warships and oil tankers. Saudi Arabia’s daily output in August plunged 23% from July.
This is not a problem the Fed can solve by deciding whether or not to hike rates. Oil prices are rising because the Middle East is hiking rates for you.
After the data was released, rate-hike bets rose across the board. CME data showed the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 60% to 71.3%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point hike in October reached 27.6%.
Now you must understand one thing:
Within the current asset-allocation framework, Bitcoin is classified as a “high-volatility, long-duration risk asset.”
What does that mean?
Ordinary assets are “sprinters”—whether they make money today can be seen tomorrow.
BTC is a “marathon runner”—its valuation depends heavily on future network effects, future consensus, and future adoption, all of which lie five, ten, or twenty years ahead.
When the discount rate rises, it is like the prize at the marathon finish line staying the same while the cost of every aid station along the way doubles. The position size and valuation range you can support naturally shrink.
This does not mean “something is wrong with BTC.” It is math.
This is not the crypto market falling. It is the risk-free rate repricing every asset in the world. BTC is merely one of the denominators.
What should you watch next?
The CPI data will be released tonight. If the core reading is above 0.2%, rate-hike expectations will strengthen further, and BTC could plunge directly to $76k or even lower. If the core reading meets or falls below expectations, risk assets will get some breathing room.
What needs to be understood clearly is that the transmission from PPI to CPI involves a time lag. Strong PPI does not necessarily mean CPI will rise in tandem, as the two use different methodologies and weighting structures.
But the direction matters more than the number.
When real dollar yields continue to rise, when oil prices reignite inflation expectations, and when the 30-year Treasury yield holds firmly above 5%—any asset that relies on telling stories about the future will remain under pressure.
Whether it is called Bitcoin or the Nasdaq.
Your chart is a reflection of the 30-year Treasury yield.
If you do not understand discount rates, you do not understand today’s decline.#Gate主流CEXTop4 #美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 #苹果发布会 $BTC $XAU $CL

Japan may be on track for its highest interest rate in 31 years!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has repeatedly called out Japan lately, and the message is clear: Stop using ultra-low interest rates to push the yen down.
Insiders say rates will be raised to 1.25% on September 18, with a 90% probability.
Over the past decade, too much money was borrowed in cheap yen to buy U.S. stocks, tech stocks, and high-yield assets.
When the yen appreciates, people who borrowed yen to buy assets first take paper losses. Once the losses reach a certain level, they have to sell whatever they can liquidate most easily and convert the proceeds into yen to repay their debt.
The first to be sold are the assets that have risen the most and have the best liquidity:
$NVDA $AVGO $AMD $TSM , as well as storage stocks like $MU , along with software growth stocks that have expensive valuations and strong momentum.
August 2024 was exactly this scenario: After the Bank of Japan raised rates, the yen surged, the Nikkei fell 12.4% in a single day, U.S. tech stocks followed as liquidity was drained, and Bitcoin also pulled back 20%.

Fun fact: There are less than 4 months left in 2026. 😱

53 seats vs. 60 votes: Which three words are holding up the CLARITY Act?
On September 15, the U.S. Senate will hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.
Here is the one-sentence bottom line for this vote: 60 votes are needed to begin consideration. Republicans have only 53 seats.
Even if all 53 Republicans vote yes—that still leaves a gap of 7 votes.
Those 7 votes must come from Democrats.
But prediction markets have already priced this very clearly. Polymarket data shows that the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are only 15%.
What stings even more is that Republican Senator Tillis himself said: “If the White House has no interest in bridging the divide over the ethics provisions, the bill will fail.”
This is not a crypto-versus-anti-crypto vote.
This is political arithmetic centered on three words: “money, power, Trump.”
The first word: “money”
Can stablecoins pay yields to their holders?
This is the most critical disagreement in the entire bill.
Banking industry lobbying groups—including the American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers of America, and 76 state-level associations—jointly sent a letter to the Senate opposing the wording of Section 404. What is their core concern? If stablecoins can pay yields, ordinary people will move their bank deposits to crypto platforms.
If deposits leave, how will community banks fund mortgages, small-business loans, and agricultural credit?
Section 404 of the bill attempts to draw a line: banning “passive yield” (where simply holding an asset automatically generates interest), while allowing “activity-linked rewards” (such as rewards for staking, market making, or card spending).
Sounds reasonable, right?
The problem is that the line is not clear enough.
The banking industry says the existing exemptions leave room for circumvention, allowing crypto platforms to effectively mimic deposit interest under the name of “activity rewards.” JPMorgan CEO Dimon put it bluntly: crypto companies that want to pay yields on stablecoins should apply for a banking charter.
This is not a dispute over interests; it is a dispute over deposits.
The second word: “power”
Who gets enforcement authority over the ethics provisions?
The Democratic position is clear: state attorneys general must be granted enforcement authority.
What does the current version say? It gives that authority only to the Department of Justice (DOJ).
The Democratic logic is: the DOJ is a federal agency controlled by the president. If the president is himself a conflicted party—who do you expect the DOJ to investigate?
The Republican rebuttal is equally direct: “The CLARITY Act is federal legislation, and the Department of Justice—not 50 state attorneys general with 50 different interpretations—is the appropriate institution to enforce federal law.”
There is another detail: the current ethics provisions contain a sunset clause that expires in January 2029.
The Democratic point is: What happens after 2029? Once the president changes, can the new president continue issuing coins and profiting?
This is not a dispute over enforcement efficiency; it is a question of who oversees the president.
The third word: “Trump”
Trump’s crypto conflicts of interest.
This is the hardest topic in the entire bill to address.
According to financial disclosure documents, the Trump family’s crypto businesses generated more than $1 billion in income for them last year. World Liberty Financial earned more than $500 million through sales of the WLFI crypto product, while sales of the TRUMP memecoin contributed approximately $635 million.
The White House response is: “There is no conflict of interest.”
But a report by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen shows that Trump’s crypto projects have already caused investors to lose approximately $4.7 billion, including roughly $3.2 billion lost by buyers of the TRUMP memecoin.
The Democratic position is therefore extremely firm: If the ethics provisions cannot effectively restrict the president’s and his family’s crypto business interests, they will not vote yes.
Trump himself agreed in July to an ethics provision banning public officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their terms in office. But after evaluating it, Democrats concluded that the provision contained loopholes—it does not cover income routed through intermediary entities. In other words, Trump could still make money through World Liberty Financial’s token sales and stablecoin reserves.
This is not a debate over ethics; it is about whether the president can make crypto rules while profiting from the crypto market.
So, can it pass?
Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly urged support before the vote, warning that allowing the bill to stall would send an “unsettling signal” to allies and adversaries, showing that the United States is unwilling to lead the future of digital assets.
Coinbase CEO Armstrong also said he had spoken with senators, that everyone supports the bill, and that they are “very close to reaching a solution.”
But Tillis is not buying it. He put it plainly: Without the White House’s cooperation on the ethics provisions, this will not pass.
Republican Senator Mike Rounds also gave a pessimistic assessment: “It doesn’t look very good right now.”
Interestingly, crypto policy advocate Dan Spuller is more optimistic—he believes the number of Democrats supporting the bill may be higher than the market expects.
Is the prediction market’s 15% probability of passage too low? I don’t know.
But I do know one thing:
The September 15 vote will not determine the life or death of crypto. It will determine whether the United States can give crypto clear rules in 2026.
If this vote fails, Republican Senator Lummis of Wyoming’s warning may come true: “If September 15 fails, there may not be another opportunity for 10 years.”
This is not a crypto-versus-anti-crypto vote.
This is political arithmetic centered on three words: “money, power, Trump.”
If the numbers add up, the bill moves forward. If they do not, the crypto industry will continue swimming in the gray zone.#Gate主流CEXTop4 #美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期 #苹果发布会 $BTC $WLFI $TRUMP

The value of 915 is still increasing😎 A few observations:
1. Ether is extremely strong and resilient. If it bottoms out and then gets a positive catalyst, it could shoot straight up again;
2. I believe the overall rise in hardware this round is merely a relatively large-scale rebound. See Figure 3;
3. The interest rate hike has been hyped for several months. It’s just noise and not worth paying much attention to;

Recently, while browsing on-chain activity, I came across something called $VIRAL Viral Fission. At first glance, I didn’t think much of it, but after clicking in and looking at the on-chain data— this mechanism is actually pretty interesting. 👀 Currently, it has collected approximately 1.3222 BNB in quote tokens, of which 1.1995 BNB has entered the airdrop reward pool. Several notable figures have already appeared on-chain: 🔥 3.17 million+ VIRAL permanently burned 👥 213,000 airdrop addresses participated

JUST IN: Spot Bitcoin ETFs sold $166M over two days.
Hesitation at $80k or full trend reversal?#AppleSeptemberEvent #GateMeme $BTC ‌

BULLISH: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin may have already found its bottom and sees the leading cryptocurrency moving higher over the next two years.#GateMeme $AAPL

With tonight’s drop, the [largest long trader on Hyperliquid]’s $233 million long position has turned from profit to loss, and is currently showing an unrealized loss of $3.39 million. After closing his $537 million long position on 8/25 for a profit of $61.72 million, he began reopening longs on 8/28. So far, he has opened:
◎1,400 BTC ($110 million), with an average entry price of $78,672, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1.94 million.
◎50,000 ETH ($123 million), with an average entry price of

Gate recently launched two new events with relatively low participation thresholds. Those who are interested can take a look.
The first is the CandyDrop airdrop event. The prize pool for this round contains a total of 851,200 CNPY tokens. The official announcement says that the task process is relatively simple, and you can visit the event page for details.
The second is the BTC price prediction event. You need to predict the price of BTC at 8 p.m. on September 18.

We’re all crypto Twitter friends, yet some of you still don’t know about the $PONS terminal? Toss the link to your AI and let it tell you the information you want.

With this funding rate🤣, as one group member aptly put it, longs get to have their cake and eat it, while shorts get beaten up while giving it away👍🏿

It broke through downward