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In October, market sentiment toward Ethereum is bearish, with the vast majority of participants believing ETH has momentum to test below 2400.
Breaking below 2400 is the baseline expectation; a further decline to 2300 or 2200 would be an unexpected downside move with a significant odds advantage.
Overall, short-term downside expectations are strong, but the probability of an extreme plunge is limited, with the main strategy focused on trading range-bound bottom-finding.

One benefit of being on the conference circuit is being able to stay in close contact with the old OGs when the market becomes highly volatile and ease the stress😆
Yesterday, I happened to be having dinner with Brother Sun when the crash hit. My phone kept lighting up with alerts, but fortunately all the strategies had already been set, so I knew which orders had been triggered without even checking.
I also chatted with a few old friends. Everyone was quite calm—eating and drinking as usual.
Recently, there have been quite a few objective negative factors affecting the market: the bill failed

$NEAR Whale addresses continue accumulating, and holdings concentration has hit a new high! Retail FOMO is heating up—how far can this rally go?#Gate.io 🔥 #Gate广场中秋团圆局

Go long on this move around $JTO
. Entry: 0.5171 - 0.5247Target range: 0.5460 / 0.566Stop-loss: 0.5016JTO longs have rebounded strongly from the bottom and are gathering momentum to reclaim the range! Note: If the 15-minute chart cannot hold MA7, it may retest the 0.50 support level. Don’t go all-in, guys. Position size should be determined based on your own account situation. Looks like the time has come.👇👇👇Today’s focus: $RLC and $ETH .

$LYN Whale addresses continue accumulating, and holding concentration hits a new high! Retail FOMO sentiment is heating up—how far can this move go?#Gate.io 🔥 #每周来晒

ETH Watch from a Jerk
The jerk hasn't mentioned Ethereum in a long time.
Cryptocurrencies fell again today. Let's see what the jerk's next move should be. As we can see in the chart, yesterday's decline has pushed ETH's price back into the range of the large bullish candle created on 8.21. In the short term, we should look for rebounds near several midlines. Of course, we also need to be mindful of the possibility of a market breakdown and a direct plunge, in which case the price could crash to around 1900.
In the short term, let's look at rebound levels such as 2370 $ETH

AI blowup + Middle East powder keg! Is the $1.9 billion net outflow just an illusion? $BTC $80,000 defense battle has begun—retail traders, don’t get shaken out!
Markets are always born in despair and grow amid doubt overnight
The market is on edge! Concerns over U.S. AI earnings have resurfaced (OpenAI revenue fell short of expectations), with tech stocks weighing on the Nasdaq. In the Middle East, U.S. aircraft carriers are massing, but Trump has postponed a strike, while Iran is not leaving the negotiating table. BTC is currently at $81,862, with its 24h decline narrowing to 1.81% as panic

$NEAR The most concerning thing is not whether the price rises or falls, but that after the price moved for a while, participation failed to keep up.
This time, I’m not looking at the gainers and losers list, only the levels. The current price is 4.76, about 9.64% above the 1-hour support at 4.301 and about 17.54% below the resistance at 5.595.
My criteria are simple: only a breakout above 5.595 followed by continuation would count as follow-through from higher levels; a break below 4.301 invalidates the original assessment. The 1-hour and 4-hour outlooks are both weak, with RSI at 40 and 41,

The U.S. government deposited 17,733 $BTC ($1.48B) and 750 $WBTC ($62M) into #CoinbasePrime over the past 3 days.
During this period, the price of $BTC dropped 6.9%.

Tong Ge’s 10.9 ETH strategy
Enter a short around $ETH 2480-2510, stop-loss at 2530, first target 2430, second target 2400.
Current price: 2480. The short entry at 2535 given last night dropped as low as 2403, so those who followed the setup enjoyed a comfortable profit. ETH fell from 2725 all the way down, dropping more than 300 points, with almost no decent rebound in between.
Now it has bounced from 2403 back to 2480, an 80-point rebound. It looks lively, but this is only a recovery after being oversold, not a trend reversal. It moves when BTC moves, but softens first when BTC pauses; it has

#FedSeptemberMinutesLeanHawkish
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes have delivered a significant signal to global financial markets. Policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation, higher energy costs and the possibility that additional monetary tightening may be required.
On September 15–16, the FOMC unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate increase, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The minutes, released October 7, revealed differing views about the reasons for tightening, but most participants considered another increase likely to be appropriate

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#USOpticalCommunicationStocksCloseLower Market Deep-Dive: U.S. Optical Communication Stocks Suffer Sharp Pullback Amid Broader Tech & Hardware Sell-Off
Executive Summary
U.S. optical communication and hardware equities closed significantly lower, joining a broader retreat across technology sub-sectors. Key optical infrastructure providers—including Coherent (COHR), Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW), and Ciena (CIEN)—experienced synchronized selling pressure as profit-taking, macroeconomic caution, and evolving hardware architecture debates weighed on market sentiment.
Core Drivers of the Market P

A few days ago, my hand trembled as I set the stop-loss; this morning, I realized that was unnecessary filial piety. A few days ago, before bed, I saw $DOGE 's rebound was running out of steam, with clear resistance above and low trading volume—no one would buy into the move. I said it was bullish at the time; the short position's logic was sound.

Managing risk in advance is called rationality; cutting after taking a loss is called decisively cutting off one's own wrist.

Panic comes from having no plan; losses come from overthinking.

Shorted from 0.09586 to 0.08473, +824.58%—nailed it, a

18% plunge followed by short-cycle funds bucking the trend to buy the dip! A pullback of $SOL to 109 could trigger short liquidations
Direction: Long (oversold rebound)
Entry range: 109.0–110.0
Take-profit target: 113.0–116.0
Personal view: SOL plunged from 123.77 to 105.61, down more than 14%. Short-cycle funds flowed back against the trend—1h inflows exceeded $20.07 million, while 8h inflows exceeded $114 million, clearly showing dip-buying funds entering the market; short liquidations are concentrated around 112–116, and once the oversold rebound is triggered, it could easily spark a short

This cycle’s key market focus is whether ETH can break below the 2400 level. There is some possibility of a breakdown, but market consensus does not favor a sustained deep decline.
2300 and 2200 would be low-probability black swan scenarios; if triggered, the potential returns would be huge. Overall, the expectation is for a pulse-like correction, with limited expectations of a one-sided plunge and range-bound trading as the main scenario.

The Fear & Greed Index is still at 59 in the greed zone, so many people assume altcoins should follow the rise—but this is a typical trading misconception. The Greed Index reflects the overall market’s sentiment temperature, not a buy signal for any individual coin. When BTC trades sideways at highs and funds concentrate in a few sectors, coins lacking narrative support may instead bleed against the trend. ADA is a current example.
$ADA Current price: 0.2332, down 9.44% over 24h, with a trading volume of 69.5M USDT. Technically, MA5=0.23322 has fallen below MA20=0.239145, forming a bearish mo