#我的七夕交易分享 Is the “supercycle” for storage here? SK hynix pours $38.4 billion into expansion—can you still get on board with A-share storage stocks?
Yesterday’s star performer in the A-share market was undoubtedly memory chips. ChangXin Technology rose 12%, with its total market cap returning above 4 trillion; Tongfu Microelectronics hit the daily limit, with 9.9 billion in turnover and net purchases exceeding 1.1 billion on the Dragon-Tiger List; and a host of stocks including Grinm Advanced Materials, Empyrean Technology, and WOLFSPEED Optoelectronics also hit the daily limit. The storage sector rose 4.8% overall, making it one of the market’s biggest capital magnets.
With this wave of storage stocks, many people are asking: Is this a genuine industry trend, or just another round of emotional speculation? Is it still too late to get on board?
First, let’s look at the three fundamental drivers behind this rally.
First, supply-side “capacity expansion becoming reality.” SK hynix announced a $38.4 billion investment to build a wafer fab, while Chairman Chey Tae-won once again warned that the most severe “memory shortage” would emerge next year. This is not the first time he has said it, but this time is different—the company is putting $38.4 billion of real money into capacity expansion while making the statement, showing that demand is genuinely overwhelming supply, rather than this being empty talk.
Second, AI-driven demand. At its Investor Day, SanDisk announced that demand for storage from AI data centers would surge, estimating that the enterprise data-center flash market would reach 1.2 zettabytes by 2030. AI large-model training and inference consume both storage and computing power, and this demand is genuinely rising.
Third, the transmission of the price-hike cycle. JPMorgan’s latest research report said that the effects of price increases have already spread from memory chips to semiconductor equipment and materials. Samsung, SK hynix, and SanDisk have all begun signing five-year contracts with large advance payments—effectively locking in profits for the next several years ahead of time.
With these three drivers combined, this is what the market is calling a “storage supercycle.” Moving from “expectations of price increases” to “capacity expansion becoming reality,” and from speculation on expectations to speculation on earnings, this shift is crucial.
So, can you still get on board with A-share storage stocks? There are three scenarios.
If you have no positions, don’t chase. The storage sector rose 4.8% yesterday, while ChangXin rose 12%; profit-taking pressure at elevated levels is too heavy, and today will most likely see divergence and volatility. If you rush in now, you’re buying at someone else’s cost. If you really want to participate, wait for a pullback to buy on weakness, or take a longer-term view and build your position gradually—don’t go all-in.
If you already hold positions, just hold them. As long as the logic remains intact and the trend has not deteriorated, there is no need to sell simply because prices have risen too much. This storage rally is an industry cycle, not a burst of sentiment lasting just a few days; holding core names is better than frequently trading in and out.
If you are watching from the sidelines, focus on two signals: first, the upcoming capital-expenditure announcements from giants such as SK hynix and Samsung—whether capacity expansion is still accelerating; second, whether price-increase notices continue to be issued and whether storage prices continue to rise. As long as these two signals remain in place, the trend remains intact.
The storage story is very strong, but A-share storage stocks have already posted substantial short-term gains. August is only halfway over, yet many storage stocks have already risen 30% to 50%. The more this is the case, the more you need to remember: strong fundamentals do not mean there will be no pullbacks, and a favorable trend does not mean you can buy indiscriminately. Industry cycles are long-term, but chasing highs in the short term is always risky.
Buying in batches, buying on weakness, and having the patience to hold—that is the right way to benefit from an industry cycle.
Disclaimer: This article only shares a personal market view and does not constitute any investment advice$SK Hynix ‌

#我的七夕交易分享 Recently, the performance of pure-play U.S. stocks such as SanDisk and Micron has clearly been stronger than that of SK hynix.
Although SK hynix is not a truly American company, its valuation has been constrained. While much of the leverage has now been washed out and volatility has also declined, its earnings are genuine, and so is market demand.
SanDisk’s rally this time is not isolated. Throughout July, the market had already carried out a brutal deleveraging and shakeout of the memory and even the broader semiconductor sector. This time, SanDisk has reshaped the market’s view of memory stocks. The company said long-term contracts can cover most of its future capacity, set a high long-term gross margin target, and its CFO also mentioned that excess cash would be returned to shareholders. What the market actually heard was not just a single piece of positive news, but that demand, prices, profits, and shareholder returns had all emerged together.
At this point, SK hynix’s position becomes relatively clear. It is one of the core suppliers of HBM, and in AI servers, the tightest components, apart from GPUs, are high-bandwidth memory. As NVIDIA, cloud providers, and AI training and inference clusters continue to expand, HBM order visibility will be stronger than that of ordinary memory. After SanDisk rose, capital naturally looked for companies in the same segment whose potential had not yet been fully reflected, and SK hynix is one such catch-up candidate.
U.S. stocks favor buybacks because, fundamentally, investors like companies to clearly account for how they use their money. Once a company earns money, it first invests in the businesses that need investment; if there is no higher-return destination for the rest, it uses the money to return it to shareholders.
Buybacks are more concrete than verbal optimism because they reduce the number of shares outstanding and boost earnings per share. They also amount to management acknowledging that the company’s cash flow is already strong enough. This is the key reason SanDisk rose so sharply this time.
Two figures in the Caixin news report are particularly solid. One is that the company expects to receive total contract value of $93.9 billion from eight customers over the contract period. The other is that the company expects a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 80% from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030. This shows that the market was not buying merely the phrase “I want to conduct buybacks,” but rather longer-cycle revenue visibility and profit margins.
The announcement that evening also gave investors ample time to get in. In hindsight, it was an event-driven trading opportunity with an exceptionally attractive risk-reward profile.
The biggest problem in the memory industry in the past was that its cycles were too strong: once prices fell, profits quickly collapsed. SanDisk has now locked in part of its capacity and customer base through long-term agreements, so investors will revalue the company. When the CFO added that all excess cash was expected to be returned to shareholders, the meaning became even clearer.
The business needs to grow, profit margins need to be maintained, and cash also needs to return to shareholders. That is why U.S. stocks favor buybacks, especially buybacks supported by earnings, contracts, and cash flow. They are not merely intended to prop up the share price, but to tell the market that the company’s money will ultimately translate into value per share.$SNDK ‌

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#SK海力士涨超8% Straight-line surge! Korean stocks rise over 3%, SK Hynix jumps over 8%, U.S. asks South Korea to prioritize memory chips as its top investment focus in the U.S.
On August 18, Asia-Pacific stock markets opened mixed. South Korean stocks surged, led by memory chip giants, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) rising over 3% intraday and breaking through the 7,200-point mark; Japanese stocks, meanwhile, moved lower against the trend, with the Nikkei 225's decline at one point widening to 0.8%. The stark contrast reflects the interplay between sustained AI memory demand and intense negotiations over U.S. semiconductor industry policy.
01 Korean stocks surge in a straight line: Memory chip giants lead the gainsSouth Korean stocks rose rapidly after opening today. As of press time, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) was up over 3%, breaking through 7,200 points intraday and gaining more than 150 points from the previous trading day.
The leading force was unsurprisingly the semiconductor sector. SK Hynix rose over 8% intraday, reaching as high as 8.57%, with its share price at approximately 1.75M won, once again nearing its record high.
As a core global supplier of HBM (high-bandwidth memory), SK Hynix's leading position in the AI memory sector continues to attract strong capital interest. Samsung Electronics followed closely, rising nearly 5% intraday and reaching as high as 4.74%, with its share price at approximately 284.5k won. Samsung's comprehensive presence across the memory chip sector has likewise benefited from the explosive growth in memory demand driven by the expansion of AI computing power.
In addition, SK Square rose over 5%, Samsung Life Insurance gained over 3%, and shipping giant HMM once surged more than 9%. The overall market showed a pattern dominated by technology stocks, with broad gains among heavyweight stocks.
It is worth noting that the South Korean stock market had previously been closed for a public holiday, creating pent-up demand for gains at today's open. The overall U.S. semiconductor sector strengthened last Friday, while positive signals regarding AI memory demand over the weekend jointly drove today's strong performance in Korean stocks.
02 U.S. pressure: Memory chips become South Korea's "top priority" for investment in the U.S.
As Korean stocks surged, a message from Washington was reshaping the global layout of South Korea's semiconductor industry. According to reports from 36Kr and several other media outlets, the United States has asked South Korea to make memory chip production facilities its first priority investment project in the U.S. This request was a key topic at a closed-door trade meeting held by South Korea's presidential office on August 13. Previously, the South Korean government had planned to prioritize the energy sector as its first major investment project in the U.S. However, the U.S. is adjusting its priorities and making additional demands, forcing South Korea to reconsider the order of its investments. This is not the first time the U.S. has pressured South Korean memory chip companies. As early as July this year, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly singled out Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the groundbreaking ceremony for Micron Technology's new factory in New York State, calling on the two Korean companies to build new memory chip production facilities in the U.S. Lutnick said at the time that he hoped South Korean companies would expand memory chip capacity in the U.S. to ease the global memory chip supply shortage caused by the rapid development of AI.
More threateningly, the U.S. also holds the "tariff stick." In January this year, Lutnick signaled that overseas memory manufacturers that failed to invest in and build factories in the U.S. could face semiconductor tariffs of up to 100%. This combination of "carrot and stick" has a clear objective—to build a U.S.-centered memory chip supply chain. For South Korean companies, this is a difficult choice: on the one hand, building factories in the U.S. can avoid tariff risks and bring them closer to U.S. customers; on the other hand, the costs of electricity, water, talent, and supply chains in the U.S. are far higher than in South Korea, while large-scale overseas investment could weaken the competitiveness of South Korea's domestic industry. SK Hynix has previously said it is evaluating the possibility of building a memory chip factory in the U.S. and needs to comprehensively consider conditions including electricity, water, talent, and supply chains. Samsung Electronics has taken a more cautious stance. The market interprets the U.S. pressure as "indirect endorsement" of the long-term competitiveness of South Korean memory chip companies—precisely because Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the global memory market, the U.S. is so eager to bring production capacity onto its soil. This also partly explains the strong performance of the two stocks today.
03 Japanese stocks move lower against the trend: Middle East tensions and economic data exert dual pressure!
In stark contrast to the heat in Korean stocks, Japanese stocks continued to move lower after opening today. As of press time, the Nikkei 225 had fallen approximately 0.5% to 0.8%, trading in the 68,600-68,900 range, failing to hold the 69,000-point mark reclaimed in the previous trading session. Japanese stocks weakened mainly under pressure from three factors:
First, tensions in the Middle East have intensified again. Nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have reached an impasse, while geopolitical risk premiums have pushed international oil prices above $90 per barrel. As one of the world's major energy importers, Japan is highly sensitive to oil prices; high oil prices directly erode corporate profits and household consumption capacity.
Second, U.S. Treasury yields have risen. Global bond yields have continued to climb, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 2.95%. Rising yields weigh on stock market valuations, with the impact particularly significant on high-valuation technology stocks.
Third, Japan's economic data fell short of expectations. Data released Monday showed that Japan's annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was only 1.1%, far below the market expectation of 2.0%. Private consumption was flat, while corporate investment fell 1.2%, indicating a weak recovery in domestic demand. By sector, Japanese technology stocks performed unevenly. Memory chipmaker Kioxia rose approximately 1.8%, following the global uptrend in memory chips; however, large technology stocks such as SoftBank came under pressure, weighing on the index.
04 The underlying logic: The AI memory supercycle and geopolitical competition intertwine
The divergence between Japanese and South Korean stocks today appeared on the surface to be a matter of daily gains and losses, but underneath it reflected the interaction of two major themes.
The first theme: the supercycle in AI memory demand. As the scale of large-model training and inference continues to expand, high-end memory chips such as HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and DDR5 are in short supply. As the undisputed leader in HBM, SK Hynix is directly benefiting from explosive demand from AI chipmakers such as NVIDIA and AMD. Samsung Electronics is likewise benefiting from the industry's upcycle through its full product-line presence in DRAM and NAND flash memory. The memory chip industry is highly cyclical, but the incremental demand brought by AI is widely considered structural rather than a short-term fluctuation. This is the core reason the market is willing to assign leading memory chip companies a higher valuation premium.
The second theme: the geopolitical restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain. The U.S. is using multiple means, including tariff threats, subsidy incentives, and diplomatic pressure, to drive semiconductor production capacity back to the U.S. From TSMC building factories in the U.S. to Samsung and SK Hynix being asked to expand production there, the global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing profound geopolitical restructuring. As a memory chip powerhouse, South Korea is at the center of this geopolitical competition. The U.S. demands bring both pressure and opportunity—investing in the U.S. can provide guaranteed access to the U.S. market and government subsidies, but at the cost of high production expenses and the risk of hollowing out South Korea's domestic industry. For investors, the core question is: To what extent will South Korean companies ultimately meet U.S. demands? How will this affect their long-term profitability and the global competitive landscape?
05 What to watch next
Whether today's strength in Korean stocks can continue will depend on several key variables:
First, the South Korean government's final position on investment in the U.S. The government originally planned to announce its first investment project in the U.S. later this month. Whether it will shift to a memory chip project after the U.S. pressure will be the most important policy signal in the near term.
Second, the third-quarter earnings guidance from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Memory chip price trends and the progress of HBM capacity expansion will directly determine the earnings sensitivity of the two companies.
Third, developments in the Middle East. If oil prices continue to rise, they will affect global inflation expectations and central bank policy paths, thereby suppressing overall stock market valuations.
Fourth, subsequent moves in U.S. semiconductor policy. Whether the threat of 100% tariffs will materialize, and whether the U.S. will introduce more restrictions targeting overseas memory chips, will profoundly affect the industry landscape.
Driven by both AI memory demand and geopolitical competition, the rally in South Korea's semiconductor sector may only just be beginning. However, investors should also beware of volatility risks arising from policy uncertainty and high valuations. The divergence between Japanese and South Korean stocks today is a microcosm of global capital repricing between the AI wave and geopolitical risks. Going forward, every policy signal and data change could become a catalyst for the next market move.#我的七夕交易分享 $SKHY ‌