#苹果财报即将公布 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁: 𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 🍎
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close today, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The consensus is revenue of about $113.4 billion, up 10.7% from $102.47 billion, and EPS of about $1.99, up 7.6% from $1.85. Apple's own guidance was for 9% to 11% growth, or roughly $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion, so the consensus already sits at the top of that range. A quarter that merely meets estimates therefore leaves little room, especially with the stock up about 27% this year.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟭: 𝗶𝗣𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗲
iPhone revenue is expected near $56 billion to $57.2 billion, up 14% to 17% from $49.03 billion, helped by price increases during the quarter to offset higher memory costs. The June quarter set the standard: iPhone rose 22% to $54.3 billion. The pass line is $57 billion or better with no sign that supply limits, which management said would worsen across iPhone, Mac and iPad, are capping sales.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟮: 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀
Services is forecast at $31.5 billion to $31.6 billion, about 10% growth after 12% in June to a record $30.7 billion. Services is the margin engine, and a drop below 10% would show maturity. The pass line is $31.6 billion with a gross margin in the guided 47% to 48% range.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟯: 𝗔𝗜 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗘𝗢
This is the first report under CEO John Ternus, according to AppleInsider. Investors want evidence that Apple Intelligence and the AI-powered Siri features are driving upgrades, not just support. The foldable iPhone Duo launched after the quarter ended, so it added nothing to these numbers, and its supply and pricing will be the first AI-era hardware read for the holidays.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟰: 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
Wall Street expects about $153.5 billion of December-quarter revenue, up about 6.7% from last year's record $143.8 billion, although estimates range widely, from about $131 billion to $170 billion. That spread shows how uncertain the holiday outlook is. Bank of America thinks Wall Street is too optimistic about December, so a guide near or above $153.5 billion with a stable gross margin would pass, while one below about $150 billion would fail even after a beat. Guidance also includes about one point of benefit from tariff refunds, which adds noise to the comparison.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗜𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴
AAPL closed Friday at $344.63, 2.1% below its 52-week high of $351.73. The average analyst target is $337.77, about 2% below the price, with a range from $245 to $400 and Bernstein at $370 (+7.4%). Options imply a move of about 4.25%, or about $14.65, which maps to a range near $330 to $359. This week's tape explains why caution is warranted: Alphabet fell 12.6% and Intel 28.6% on guidance and cash concerns, and the Nasdaq lost 2.86% on Friday.
𝗠𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁
My call is a modest beat on the quarter, revenue slightly above $113.7 billion, EPS near $2.00 and Services near $31.6 billion, since Apple has beaten its own guidance in recent quarters. The stock reaction will depend on the holiday guide. A guide near $153.5 billion or higher with a margin near 47% to 48% could push the shares through the $351.73 high. A cautious guide, or margin pressure from memory costs, could send them toward the $330 area even after a beat. If the numbers beat but guidance disappoints, a bullish stance would depend on whether the shortfall comes from supply, which can recover, or from demand, which is harder to fix.
Apple's quarter is the entry ticket. The December guide, the iPhone Duo, margin and Services growth are the verdict. This season has shown that a beat does not guarantee a rise.
#AppleQ3EarningsInFocus
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close today, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The consensus is revenue of about $113.4 billion, up 10.7% from $102.47 billion, and EPS of about $1.99, up 7.6% from $1.85. Apple's own guidance was for 9% to 11% growth, or roughly $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion, so the consensus already sits at the top of that range. A quarter that merely meets estimates therefore leaves little room, especially with the stock up about 27% this year.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟭: 𝗶𝗣𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗲
iPhone revenue is expected near $56 billion to $57.2 billion, up 14% to 17% from $49.03 billion, helped by price increases during the quarter to offset higher memory costs. The June quarter set the standard: iPhone rose 22% to $54.3 billion. The pass line is $57 billion or better with no sign that supply limits, which management said would worsen across iPhone, Mac and iPad, are capping sales.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟮: 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀
Services is forecast at $31.5 billion to $31.6 billion, about 10% growth after 12% in June to a record $30.7 billion. Services is the margin engine, and a drop below 10% would show maturity. The pass line is $31.6 billion with a gross margin in the guided 47% to 48% range.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟯: 𝗔𝗜 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗖𝗘𝗢
This is the first report under CEO John Ternus, according to AppleInsider. Investors want evidence that Apple Intelligence and the AI-powered Siri features are driving upgrades, not just support. The foldable iPhone Duo launched after the quarter ended, so it added nothing to these numbers, and its supply and pricing will be the first AI-era hardware read for the holidays.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟰: 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
Wall Street expects about $153.5 billion of December-quarter revenue, up about 6.7% from last year's record $143.8 billion, although estimates range widely, from about $131 billion to $170 billion. That spread shows how uncertain the holiday outlook is. Bank of America thinks Wall Street is too optimistic about December, so a guide near or above $153.5 billion with a stable gross margin would pass, while one below about $150 billion would fail even after a beat. Guidance also includes about one point of benefit from tariff refunds, which adds noise to the comparison.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗜𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴
AAPL closed Friday at $344.63, 2.1% below its 52-week high of $351.73. The average analyst target is $337.77, about 2% below the price, with a range from $245 to $400 and Bernstein at $370 (+7.4%). Options imply a move of about 4.25%, or about $14.65, which maps to a range near $330 to $359. This week's tape explains why caution is warranted: Alphabet fell 12.6% and Intel 28.6% on guidance and cash concerns, and the Nasdaq lost 2.86% on Friday.
𝗠𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁
My call is a modest beat on the quarter, revenue slightly above $113.7 billion, EPS near $2.00 and Services near $31.6 billion, since Apple has beaten its own guidance in recent quarters. The stock reaction will depend on the holiday guide. A guide near $153.5 billion or higher with a margin near 47% to 48% could push the shares through the $351.73 high. A cautious guide, or margin pressure from memory costs, could send them toward the $330 area even after a beat. If the numbers beat but guidance disappoints, a bullish stance would depend on whether the shortfall comes from supply, which can recover, or from demand, which is harder to fix.
Apple's quarter is the entry ticket. The December guide, the iPhone Duo, margin and Services growth are the verdict. This season has shown that a beat does not guarantee a rise.
#AppleQ3EarningsInFocus
