Historical data shows: when the probability of a rate hike surges to 94%, the Fed really does hike rates
The interest rate market’s view of Wednesday’s meeting is already very clear.
Interest rate swaps tied to the Fed’s meeting date show that traders see about a 94% probability that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will raise the benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points from its current 3.5%-3.75% range, equivalent to pricing in about 23 basis points of tightening.
Historical data further reinforces this conviction. According to data compiled by Bloomberg dating back to 2008, whenever

BTC-0.11%

ETH-0.80%

StarshineWisdomEyesSmartTravel an hour ago

Fear & Greed Index: 51, neutral. Does $XNO follow the broader market? Yes, but weakly. Current price: 0.312, down 3.11% over 24h, with only 0.1M in trading volume. MA5

XNO+0.35%

BTC-0.16%

KAIA-3.95%

BNT-1.62%

Elonoshi 25 minutes ago

#40 · the widow of zarephath
elijah walked into a foreign town in the middle of a drought and asked a woman for water, and then, while she was going to get it, called after her and asked for bread too.
she stopped and told him the truth.
i have a handful of flour and a little oil in a jug. i am gathering two sticks to make a last meal for me and my son, and then we will eat it and die.
that is what she was doing when he found her. picking up firewood for the last dinner of her life.
and elijah said, do not be afraid. go and do what you said. but make me a small loaf first, and bring it to me.

SunshineAndGreatAmbitionsAhead2 hours ago

The Fed’s rate decision is coming at 2 a.m. in a major event! Can BTC make a move of 3,000 points? We’ll wait and see.
I believe everyone has been watching from the sidelines for quite some time, waiting patiently for this key opportunity. Despite ever-changing market conditions and repeated fluctuations, Jiaoyang’s approach remains unchanged: be sure to position for medium- to long-term trades near strong resistance and strong support.
Keep a close eye on the 75000 level tonight. As long as this support holds, the existing range structure remains unchanged. We are still holding the long posit

BTC-0.16%

ETH-0.91%

智赢舵手 13 minutes ago

🚨 $BR — Extreme volatility, be careful 🚨 guys, yesterday I shared a short-term entry for $BR , with the price around 0.53, and from there, the coin price plunged all the way down, hitting a low of 0.21. But today, BR made another huge move, pushing the price straight back up to nearly 0.61. This kind of price action is exactly why I’m staying away from this coin right now. The issue isn’t simply whether BR will rise or fall. More importantly, it’s the extreme volatility. For example, a coin can be heavily sold off within a short period and then quickly rebound through another massive pump—i

BR+118.77%

Nebraskangoo 2 hours ago

$ORCL
Nasty rejection at 99smma on daily time frame. Yikes.

ORCL+1.69%

RevisedGoldenElixirStage 32 minutes agoBullish

The kids in the livestream room and my disciples. I never play Monday-morning quarterback; I must explain the direction beforehand. We’re currently in choppy mode—expect a pump around midnight tonight, followed by another wick tomorrow. Be prepared to wait.
$ETH ‌

ETH-0.80%

BMs 41 minutes ago

GM happy Wednesday!
Halfway through the week let’s make today a great day! 💯
What is everyone’s plans for the day?

360trader 25 minutes ago

$BTC as well still well within the confines of its bottoming pattern and MAY NOT be finished yet. Opportunity for a final dip into a higher low - setting up a run towards the CHOCH and a bull market.

BTC-0.16%

discovery2 minutes ago

🔥 Hot topics have been updated—here are two trends worth following today 👇
🏦 Federal Reserve rate decision
Market pricing for a rate hike has risen to 87%–95%, with the dot plot’s guidance on the year-end rate path becoming the focus.
⚠️ CLARITY Act fails to pass
Pessimism is mounting in the market, with BTC briefly falling below $75,000 and Meme tokens pulling back across the board.
Choose a direction you’re good at, bring the corresponding topic, and post on Gate Square!
High-quality hot-topic content can receive traffic support + content mining rewards. Good insights deserve to be seen b

BTC-0.16%

XAUUSD+1.26%

SPCX+5.23%

LENOVO GROUP+8.33%

Korea Optical Communications+13.86%

VM_Crypto 2 hours ago

blue-chip-4:native
added to Coinbase roadmap😄🤫

BLUE-1.23%

CHIP-4.35%

RichChillacc an hour ago

it’s
never
been
more
OVER
(im still long)

智赢舵手 2 hours ago

$XRP Current price: 1.2767. The bias is bearish, but do not chase shorts at the current level; wait for a rebound into the 1.290–1.300 range before entering a short.
Reason: The 24h decline is 10.63%, and the amplitude across 30 candles is 15.25%. Volatility has expanded significantly, indicating a high-volatility environment, so the position size must be halved. MA5=1.28738 has crossed below MA20=1.29087, confirming short-term moving-average pressure; RSI=33.2 is close to oversold but has not fallen below 30, indicating further downside remains possible; although the MACD histogram is +0.002

XRP-8.28%

PEPE-1.30%

THE-0.74%

StarshineWisdomEyesSmartTravel 2 hours ago

Can you still go long when the moving averages are bearishly aligned? Yes, but wait for a signal.
$ONT Current price 0.04838, down 4.89% over 24h. MA5 at 0.048546 has crossed below MA20 at 0.0487255, indicating a weak trend; however, RSI at 39 is nearing oversold, the MACD histogram has turned positive at +6.01e-05, the funding rate is -0.0015% with shorts paying, and the Bollinger lower band at 0.0481421 is providing support. Educational point: moving averages indicate direction, RSI indicates position, and MACD indicates momentum; when the three diverge, prioritize waiting for stabilization

ONT-3.40%

DIA-4.54%

LISTA-6.24%

TalkingAboutMemeAsTheCoinMakes2026-09-13

Layout for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin

LIVE3,134

CocoRichDay 24 minutes ago

9.16 Cocoa Evening Silk Road fulfillment: evening data released, rebound to 4360, then declined to 4324 as expected; 4360→4324 captured 36 points of profit 🍐 At its core, that means making money #黄金

GLDX+1.34%

PAXG+1.57%

XAU+1.54%

Satoshitalks 3 minutes ago

Crime szn.
-80% in one hour

Marcinthematrix an hour ago

BREAKING: Ondo Finance becomes the first tokenization company to join DTCC’s Fund/SERV network, which processes over 85% of US mutual fund transactions.

Ansel1232 hours agoBearish

🔴 $OKB SHORT SETUP
OKB is trading around $110–$111 after another rejection from the $114 area. Short-term structure remains weak below $113.30–$115.00, with support near $108.50 and $104.80.
Entry: $112.00–$113.50
TP1: $108.50
TP2: $106.00
TP3: $104.80
SL: $116.00
I’d wait for rejection in the entry zone. A clean reclaim above $116 would weaken the bearish setup.
#OKB #Crypto #Trading
$OKB ‌

OKB-1.34%

OldACryptocurrencyCircle 2 hours ago

Honestly, I’m surprised this trade has survived until now. Luck played a significant part.
A few days ago, the afternoon market hadn’t started yet. $LAB kept falling just short on every push higher, and volume hadn’t followed through, so I signaled bullish, opened a short around 0.08529, and the structure was sufficient.
I just took a look at the chart: 0.048, +860.86%. It was truly sluggish at first, but the outcome is truly sweet.
The market is waited out, and profits are held onto. Staying out of the market isn’t a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Close 80% first, protect

LAB-1.24%

ETH-0.80%

DOGE-2.53%

Join 40 M users in our growing community

⚡️ Join 40 M users in the crypto craze discussion

💬 Engage with your favorite top creators

👍 See what interests you

Join 40 M users in our growing community

Trending Topics

GateTrenchesExclusive0GasTrading#

FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon

CLARITYActFailsToPass

Upload Local Image

Upload Local Video

Join 40 M users in our growing community

Trending Topics

GateTrenchesExclusive0GasTrading#

FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon

CLARITYActFailsToPass