#比特币跌破7万美元 For now, the short-term outlook points to further downside. $70,000 has been breached, spot ETF funds are still flowing out, and the rebound looks more like a recovery after an excessive drop than a reversal.
Why it could still move lower
· Rate hike expectations are weighing on the market: Fed officials have taken a hawkish tone, and the market is concerned about a rate hike in December. When the dollar strengthens, assets like Bitcoin typically fall first.
· ETFs are seeing outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.722 billion.
· Leverage is being flushed out: After the drop below $70,000, nearby long positions were liquidated en masse. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $1.64 billion, nearly 90% of which were longs.
Where is the next support?
· $68,000–$68,200: This is the most immediate reference point at present, and is near this year's June low.
· $66,500–$67,000: The 200-week moving average is around $67,148, a level long-term funds are watching.
· $62,000–$65,000: Further down, long-term holders bought about 476,000 coins in this range this year, making it a deeper support level.
What two things to watch for in a rebound
1. Hold near $68,000 and close with a long lower wick on increased volume.
2. Reclaim $70,000, ideally returning above $72,000. Only if both happen will it count as a consolidation recovery; rising back above $70,000 alone is still just a rebound.#WCTCS9 $BTC
Why it could still move lower
· Rate hike expectations are weighing on the market: Fed officials have taken a hawkish tone, and the market is concerned about a rate hike in December. When the dollar strengthens, assets like Bitcoin typically fall first.
· ETFs are seeing outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.722 billion.
· Leverage is being flushed out: After the drop below $70,000, nearby long positions were liquidated en masse. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $1.64 billion, nearly 90% of which were longs.
Where is the next support?
· $68,000–$68,200: This is the most immediate reference point at present, and is near this year's June low.
· $66,500–$67,000: The 200-week moving average is around $67,148, a level long-term funds are watching.
· $62,000–$65,000: Further down, long-term holders bought about 476,000 coins in this range this year, making it a deeper support level.
What two things to watch for in a rebound
1. Hold near $68,000 and close with a long lower wick on increased volume.
2. Reclaim $70,000, ideally returning above $72,000. Only if both happen will it count as a consolidation recovery; rising back above $70,000 alone is still just a rebound.#WCTCS9 $BTC
