Why Did Tech Rally While the Fed Raised Rates?
The Fed raised rates, and tech stocks still rallied.
Every textbook says the opposite should happen.
The explanation comes down to one thing: the gap between what the market had priced in and what it actually got.
On 16 September, the Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. The decision was unanimous at 12–0 and marked the first hike since 2023. Projections point to one more increase before year-end. August CPI came in at 3.4% year on year with core inflation at 2.4%, and nonfarm payrolls beat expectations at +162,000. The macro backdrop points to tightening, not easing.
Yet on 17 September risk appetite improved: the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.93%, back below 5%; the VIX dropped 11% to 15.7; oil eased. Investors read the hike as less hawkish than feared and reversed the previous session's sell-off.
The real fuel, however, is AI capital expenditure. The top five cloud providers are set to spend roughly $602bn in 2026, up 36% year on year, with about three-quarters of that going into AI infrastructure. UBS models $4.1tn of hyperscaler investment across 2026–2028. A narrative backed by cash flow can survive a high-rate environment.
DeFi veterans will recognise the logic: narrative sets direction, liquidity sets speed.
But are these four stocks really one "AI basket"? No — and that distinction changes your risk. Article 3 explains why.
This content is not investment advice. Always perform your own research before making financial decisions.
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A Meme token can have enormous attention and surprisingly little liquidity.
That combination can create explosive moves in both directions.
But how much of a rally is actually supported by real market depth?
Liquidity is one of the most overlooked concepts in speculative crypto markets.
When liquidity is deep, larger orders can often be absorbed with less price impact. When liquidity becomes thin, relatively small orders can move price much more aggressively.
This matters enormously for Meme assets.
A trader may see a rapid breakout and assume that strong demand is driving the market. But if available liquidity is limited, part of the move may simply reflect how little capital is required to shift the order book or available pools.
That does not automatically make the move invalid.
It changes the risk profile.
DeFi liquidity pools, centralized exchange order books, stablecoin flows and trading volume can all influence how efficiently a market functions. This is why liquidity should be viewed as infrastructure behind price—not just another technical indicator.
The same principle applies during pullbacks.
When sellers appear, a thin market can accelerate downward movement. A deeper market may absorb selling more efficiently. This difference can completely change execution, slippage and risk management.
The key lesson is simple: volatility is not only about sentiment.
It is also about market depth.
For GateSquare traders, this creates a useful discussion point. Instead of simply posting “bullish” or “bearish,” explain what you see in liquidity and why it changes your thesis.
The next question becomes even more interesting:
If liquidity is the market’s fuel, where is that fuel actually coming from?
This content is not investment advice. Always perform your own research before making financial decisions.
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