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It’s Friday—time to welcome a wonderful weekend!
Bessent set a $6 billion cap for this long-term debt buyback, but it seems the full amount wasn’t purchased. The Treasury actually accepted about $5.19 billion in face value.
The market feels the stance was not decisive enough; operationally, it looks more like some bids were not suitable enough, so the full amount was not accepted. U.S. Treasury yields are still holding at elevated levels.
This operation targeted maturities of 10–20 years, with more operations to come. As for whether the cap will be raised and how much will actually be repurchased, we’ll have to wait for the announcement, because this is not fixed.
CPI will be released tonight, and the market is eagerly awaiting it. It is also the final data release of the week.
Many people are curious: Why does core CPI exclude energy, while the market keeps saying energy is pushing inflation higher? Headline CPI includes energy; the media generally means headline CPI when it says this.
Crude oil is not directly included in core CPI, but it can be transmitted indirectly through costs and push prices higher.
Core CPI excludes crude oil simply to filter out short-term volatility; this does not mean we can ignore the fact that it remains a basic energy cost for society.
So it is fine to focus mainly on core CPI, but we also need to see whether headline CPI is feeding into core CPI.
If I had to assess tonight’s data, I think the odds favor a somewhat bearish outcome.
After all, yesterday’s PPI was relatively high. Although it was not explosive, oil prices breaking above $100 is also right there and cannot be ignored.
Looking more closely:
A core month-on-month reading of 0.3% would be genuinely hawkish,
core at 0.2% with headline CPI pushed higher by energy would be neutral, though sentiment could still remain tense,
and core at 0.1% would provide relatively more room to breathe.
Therefore, even if the released figures are not particularly bearish, the market will most likely still worry for a while—that is a matter of sentiment.
What is more worth watching now is not just the data itself, but how relevant officials respond to reassure the market if CPI really comes in above expectations.
Because Bessent has recently said that oil prices will fall significantly after the Iran-Israel war ends, and even mentioned $40–50!
The fact is that prices first broke through the $100 threshold.
They are verbally trying to suppress oil prices, but prices moved in the opposite direction first. The market will not pretend not to notice this contrast.
To sum up my view: After yesterday’s PPI release, the market raised expectations for a September rate hike. The current situation is that oil prices have broken above $100 and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. If core CPI comes in above expectations tonight, September rate-hike expectations will be raised another notch.#8月CPI今晚公布