MatthewDixon

#SOL can be counted in several ways, including a scenario in which the decline has already completed at the June low.
This chart presents a more bearish alternative: an expanded-flat correction, with wave C either complete or approaching completion within the shaded resistance zone.
A five wave reversal from that region would strengthen the case for a sharp decline into a potential Q4 low. Until then, it remains a scenario, not a confirmed outcome.

#BTC has completed a clean five-wave decline from the high, with wave 3 measuring 1.618× wave 1.
Price now appears to be working through a typically choppy corrective recovery.
The initial decline could represent either wave 1 of a larger impulse or wave A of an ABC correction. The present recovery would therefore be wave 2 or B.
In either scenario, the next higher-probability move, once this correction is complete, is another five wave decline in wave 3 or C.
The precise long term count remains open. For now, I’m focused on the likely direction of the next move.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 80/100
🔴 EXTREME RISK UNCHANGED
Risk conditions remain highly elevated.
• Treasury yields remain restrictive
• Financial conditions are tightening
• Lower-quality credit stress is increasing
• Geopolitical and energy supply risks persist
• Crypto sentiment has moved firmly into greed
Softer oil and renewed risk appetite provide some offset, but not enough to justify lowering the score.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #RiskManagement

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a two-thirds chance of another interest rate hike at the next #Fed meeting.
There is still plenty of time for expectations to shift as new data arrives, but higher rates and tighter financial conditions are generally a headwind for risk assets, including #BTC.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 80/100
EXTREME RISK ↓2
Immediate pressure has eased slightly:
• Volatility has fallen
• Oil has retreated below $100
• Geopolitical tensions show tentative improvement
However, the wider environment remains fragile:
• Treasury yields remain historically elevated
• The dollar remains firm
• Financial conditions are tightening
• Inflation expectations remain concerning
• Geopolitical risk has not disappeared
Markets may appear calmer, but the underlying storm has not passed.
Risk remains extreme. Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.

Compare the chart I posted on 18 September, when $ETH was trading near $2,500, with where price is today.
#ETH completed the anticipated rally, briefly exceeding our $2,800 target. Since then, we have seen a clear five wave decline.
Price now appears to be undergoing a small corrective bounce before a further five wave move lower, although, as always, we will reassess if the structure changes.

I warned that a reversal was highly probable following the recent $ETH high.
We now have a clear five wave decline, with wave 3 extending precisely to 1.618× the length of wave 1.
A short ABC recovery is now likely, followed, if this count is correct by another five-wave decline in $ETH and potentially the broader #Crypto market.
Probabilities, not certainties.

Why this matters for #BTC
Higher discount rate: A risk-free Treasury return above 5% makes speculative and non-yielding assets comparatively less attractive.
Tighter liquidity: Rising yields increase borrowing costs across the economy and reduce financial liquidity.
Stronger dollar risk: If yields attract global capital into dollars, a stronger DXY normally creates an additional headwind for Bitcoin.
Deleveraging: A rapid, not merely high rise in yields can trigger volatility, margin reduction and broad risk-off selling.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 82/100
EXTREME RISK — unchanged
Treasury yields and volatility are rising again, while crypto is pulling back from increasingly optimistic sentiment.
Softer oil prices provide some relief, but geopolitical, inflation and liquidity risks remain elevated.
The environment remains fragile. Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.

Where next for #XRP?
We cannot predict XRP’s longer term price action with certainty.
In the short term, however, a pullback appears increasingly likely. Price has formed bearish RSI divergence across multiple timeframes, while the daily RSI is approaching overbought territory.
This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does suggest that upside momentum is weakening and risk is increasing.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 82/100
EXTREME RISK Down 2 points
Risk pressures have eased slightly:
• Oil has retreated below $100
• Treasury yields have moved lower
• Equities and Bitcoin show renewed resilience
However, financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical risk is unresolved.
The storm has weakened but it has not passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

A credible working #ETH count shows a proposed five wave advance from the late-July low:
Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 without breaking its origin.
Wave 3 formed the extended price wave.
Wave 4 remained comfortably above the Wave 1 peak, avoiding overlap.
Wave 5 has now exceeded the Wave 3 high while RSI has formed clear bearish divergence.
This does not confirm the top, but it suggests the fifth wave may be approaching maturity. Risk management is increasingly important here.

Examining the decline in #DXY from the late-June high:
• Wave 1 appears to form a leading diagonal
• Wave 3 is the longest and sharpest decline
• Wave 5 completes a potential five wave impulse lower
• The subsequent recovery appears corrective as potentially an ABC structure
If this count is correct, DXY may be approaching the end of its correction before beginning another significant move lower.
That could support #BTC and #Crypto but the market impact will ultimately depend on why the #dollar is weakening. A falling DXY driven by improving liquidity is very different from one caused by a los

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 84/100
Risk has eased slightly from yesterday’s 87 as volatility falls and equities and Bitcoin rebound.
However, oil above $100, Treasury yields near 5%, a firm dollar and continuing geopolitical tension keep the PSI firmly in Extreme Risk territory.
This is an improvement, not an all-clear.
Stay selective. Manage risk. Cash is a position.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.

$ETH continues to follow yesterday’s preferred Elliott Wave count.
Wave 3 of this C-wave reached the extreme but precise Fibonacci 6.854 X wave 1 extension zone, followed by a wave 4 zigzag. Price now appears to be completing wave 5 of the larger fifth wave.
If confirmed, this would complete the corrective C wave and leave $ETH vulnerable to another move lower.
Trade the evidence, not the prediction. #ETH

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 87/100 🔴
EXTREME RISK ▼1
Risk has eased marginally, but the storm remains firmly in place.
• Oil retreats, yet Brent remains above $100
• Middle East supply disruption risk persists
• Tanker shortages compound inflationary pressure
• BTC and ETH rebound strongly
• Broader geopolitical tensions remain elevated
Markets may be enjoying a temporary clearing in the clouds but this is not yet evidence that the storm has passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Geopolitics

Technically, the ABC correction higher in #ETH may now be complete.
Price exceeded the wave 3 high, while the proposed wave 5 reached an excellent Fibonacci relationship with the extended wave 3, supporting a completed five-wave advance.
Alternatively, what I have labelled as wave 5 may only be minor wave 1 of a larger five wave sequence still unfolding within wave 5.
Both counts remain valid. The next pullback, and its internal structure should help distinguish between them.

I suggested (before the weekend) that #ETH may be completing wave 1 of 5 higher and that still holds true imo.
The most likely path is a period of consolidation around $2,450–$2,650, followed by another attempt higher, provided $ETH continues holding the converging 50- and 200-week moving averages near $2,470–$2,515.
Key levels:
Above $2,700 on a weekly closing basis: strengthens the breakout and opens approximately $3,000, then $3,200–$3,300.
Holding $2,450–$2,500: maintains the constructive short-term outlook.
Below $2,450: suggests the recent surge may have been a false breakout, with $2,25