MatthewDixon

Compare the chart I posted on 18 September, when $ETH was trading near $2,500, with where price is today.
#ETH completed the anticipated rally, briefly exceeding our $2,800 target. Since then, we have seen a clear five wave decline.
Price now appears to be undergoing a small corrective bounce before a further five wave move lower, although, as always, we will reassess if the structure changes.

I warned that a reversal was highly probable following the recent $ETH high.
We now have a clear five wave decline, with wave 3 extending precisely to 1.618× the length of wave 1.
A short ABC recovery is now likely, followed, if this count is correct by another five-wave decline in $ETH and potentially the broader #Crypto market.
Probabilities, not certainties.

Why this matters for #BTC
Higher discount rate: A risk-free Treasury return above 5% makes speculative and non-yielding assets comparatively less attractive.
Tighter liquidity: Rising yields increase borrowing costs across the economy and reduce financial liquidity.
Stronger dollar risk: If yields attract global capital into dollars, a stronger DXY normally creates an additional headwind for Bitcoin.
Deleveraging: A rapid, not merely high rise in yields can trigger volatility, margin reduction and broad risk-off selling.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 82/100
EXTREME RISK — unchanged
Treasury yields and volatility are rising again, while crypto is pulling back from increasingly optimistic sentiment.
Softer oil prices provide some relief, but geopolitical, inflation and liquidity risks remain elevated.
The environment remains fragile. Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.

Where next for #XRP?
We cannot predict XRP’s longer term price action with certainty.
In the short term, however, a pullback appears increasingly likely. Price has formed bearish RSI divergence across multiple timeframes, while the daily RSI is approaching overbought territory.
This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does suggest that upside momentum is weakening and risk is increasing.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 82/100
EXTREME RISK Down 2 points
Risk pressures have eased slightly:
• Oil has retreated below $100
• Treasury yields have moved lower
• Equities and Bitcoin show renewed resilience
However, financial conditions remain tight and geopolitical risk is unresolved.
The storm has weakened but it has not passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

A credible working #ETH count shows a proposed five wave advance from the late-July low:
Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 without breaking its origin.
Wave 3 formed the extended price wave.
Wave 4 remained comfortably above the Wave 1 peak, avoiding overlap.
Wave 5 has now exceeded the Wave 3 high while RSI has formed clear bearish divergence.
This does not confirm the top, but it suggests the fifth wave may be approaching maturity. Risk management is increasingly important here.

Examining the decline in #DXY from the late-June high:
• Wave 1 appears to form a leading diagonal
• Wave 3 is the longest and sharpest decline
• Wave 5 completes a potential five wave impulse lower
• The subsequent recovery appears corrective as potentially an ABC structure
If this count is correct, DXY may be approaching the end of its correction before beginning another significant move lower.
That could support #BTC and #Crypto but the market impact will ultimately depend on why the #dollar is weakening. A falling DXY driven by improving liquidity is very different from one caused by a los

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 84/100
Risk has eased slightly from yesterday’s 87 as volatility falls and equities and Bitcoin rebound.
However, oil above $100, Treasury yields near 5%, a firm dollar and continuing geopolitical tension keep the PSI firmly in Extreme Risk territory.
This is an improvement, not an all-clear.
Stay selective. Manage risk. Cash is a position.
PSI measures the environment, not the next candle.

$ETH continues to follow yesterday’s preferred Elliott Wave count.
Wave 3 of this C-wave reached the extreme but precise Fibonacci 6.854 X wave 1 extension zone, followed by a wave 4 zigzag. Price now appears to be completing wave 5 of the larger fifth wave.
If confirmed, this would complete the corrective C wave and leave $ETH vulnerable to another move lower.
Trade the evidence, not the prediction. #ETH

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 87/100 🔴
EXTREME RISK ▼1
Risk has eased marginally, but the storm remains firmly in place.
• Oil retreats, yet Brent remains above $100
• Middle East supply disruption risk persists
• Tanker shortages compound inflationary pressure
• BTC and ETH rebound strongly
• Broader geopolitical tensions remain elevated
Markets may be enjoying a temporary clearing in the clouds but this is not yet evidence that the storm has passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Geopolitics

Technically, the ABC correction higher in #ETH may now be complete.
Price exceeded the wave 3 high, while the proposed wave 5 reached an excellent Fibonacci relationship with the extended wave 3, supporting a completed five-wave advance.
Alternatively, what I have labelled as wave 5 may only be minor wave 1 of a larger five wave sequence still unfolding within wave 5.
Both counts remain valid. The next pullback, and its internal structure should help distinguish between them.

I suggested (before the weekend) that #ETH may be completing wave 1 of 5 higher and that still holds true imo.
The most likely path is a period of consolidation around $2,450–$2,650, followed by another attempt higher, provided $ETH continues holding the converging 50- and 200-week moving averages near $2,470–$2,515.
Key levels:
Above $2,700 on a weekly closing basis: strengthens the breakout and opens approximately $3,000, then $3,200–$3,300.
Holding $2,450–$2,500: maintains the constructive short-term outlook.
Below $2,450: suggests the recent surge may have been a false breakout, with $2,25

We signalled this push higher in #ETH in advance, but there are now signs that momentum could begin to fade.
The weekly RSI is approaching overhead resistance but remains below overbought territory, although the broader bearish divergence is still evident. Price is also testing major moving-average resistance, with the shorter MA now below the longer MA.
Most importantly, the entire advance appears overlapping and corrective rather than impulsive.
Further upside remains possible but, at this stage, I would treat it as a corrective rally rather than confirmation of a new bull trend.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 20 September 2026
Today: 88/100 🔴 Extreme Risk
Yesterday: 87 | Change: +1
Key drivers:
Houthi attacks against Saudi targets deepen regional instability and threaten energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian drones struck Moscow oil-refining infrastructure.
Energy supply and refinery disruption risks remain severe.
Bitcoin is around $80,227, down approximately 1.3% today.
Elevated dollar, rates and geopolitical pressures remain unfavourable for risk assets.
Conclusion: The storm continues to intensify. Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.

Im watching with interest as the PSI remains high despite the positivity in #BTC & #Crypto - lets see.....
⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 87/100
EXTREME RISK | Unchanged
Oil eased slightly, but the wider storm remains:
• Brent above $103
• US 10-year yield near 5%
• Dollar at a seven-week high
• Persistent Middle East risk
• Inflation and further rate-hike concerns
• Fragile underlying market structure
The PSI signals vulnerability, not a guaranteed market decline. The storm has not passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
One Number. Multiple Market Sign

#ETH may have completed wave 1 of a potential five wave advance.
If this count is correct, a modest wave 2 pullback could develop over the weekend before further upside next week toward the $2,550–$2,700 region.
The broader move still looks corrective, however, so I remain alert to renewed downside once all five waves are complete.
Trade the evidence, not the prediction.

Even beleaguered #JASMY holders may have something to look forward to.
A short-term rally appears increasingly possible and perhaps a fairly decent one. RSI has room to move higher, while the latest corrective decline may be complete for now.
Short-term optimism, however, should not be confused with confirmation of a broader trend reversal.

Trading is a game of chess, not a game of predictions.
Every move depends on what the market does next.
Bitcoin’s current consolidation may prove bullish, but confirmation must come from price. If resistance breaks, we adapt. If support fails, we reassess.
Strong traders don’t become emotionally attached to one outcome. They consider the possibilities, manage risk and respond to the evidence, one move at a time.
The objective isn’t to predict every move.
It’s to remain in the game long enough to deliver checkmate. ♟️
#Bitcoin #BTC #Trading

A short-term target of $62 for litecoin:native would not be unreasonable based on the current chart structure, provided #LTC price can break decisively through the $57.50–$59.50 resistance zone.