MatthewDixon

As regular followers will know, I use #USDJPY as an important proxy for global risk conditions.
I’m watching the shaded area closely.
The key question is whether the recovery from the recent USDJPY low is merely corrective.
If it is, and #USDJPY resumes its decline, meaning further Yen appreciation against the Dollar and that could signal another tightening in global risk conditions.
That would fit with:
• Perfect Storm Index™ at 60/100
• #BTC remaining in a corrective structure
• Elevated geopolitical/energy risk
• Growing signs of vulnerability across risk assets
A renewed Yen surge would th

As regular followers will know, I use #USDJPY as an important proxy for global risk conditions.
I’m watching the shaded area closely.
The key question is whether the recovery from the recent USDJPY low is merely corrective.
If it is, and #USDJPY resumes its decline, meaning further Yen appreciation against the Dollar and that could signal another tightening in global risk conditions.
That would fit with:
• Perfect Storm Index™ at 60/100
• #BTC remaining in a corrective structure
• Elevated geopolitical/energy risk
• Growing signs of vulnerability across risk assets
A renewed Yen surge would th

The previous move higher in #ETH was signalled ahead of time by the bullish RSI divergence shown on the chart.
Interestingly, we are seeing mild bullish divergence developing again now.
That leaves room, IMO, for $ETH to drift somewhat higher and complete the current corrective phase before another impulsive move lower towards our proposed Q4 low.
The wider environment also matters.
Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 60/100, indicating that market risk remains elevated despite relatively subdued volatility.
Technical structure tells us what may be developing.
PSI tells us whether the wider risk e

Something interesting is developing across markets.
My Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated at 58/100.
#BTC remains in what I believe is a corrective structure.
#SPX is making new highs while weekly RSI is showing clear bearish divergence.
Meanwhile, inflation/Fed conditions are improving, but yields, oil and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
None of this tells us precisely when markets turn.
But that isn't the point.
After 40+ years in markets, I've learned that the greatest risks often emerge when several seemingly unrelated signals begin pointing in the same direction.
Now add the long-t

Clear bearish RSI divergence is now visible at the recent high on #SPX.
The Elliott Wave structure also raises the possibility that this long-running impulsive advance is approaching completion.
But divergence is a warning, not a sell signal.
I would still want to see a clear reversal in price structure and trend before drawing any tradable conclusions.
Evidence first. Prediction second.
#SP500 #Markets #ElliottWave

The B and Y labels are intended to show directional movement, not precise $BTC price targets.
My base case is that the B wave may have a little further to run before a final 5-wave decline completes the larger Y wave.
The precise levels are less important than the structure.
If that correction completes alongside an improvement in the geopolitical and macroeconomic risk environment, reflected by a falling Perfect Storm Index™, the conditions could then be in place for a powerful recovery towards new #BTC all-time highs.
Probabilities, not certainties. Structure first, targets second.
#Bitcoin

The B and Y labels are intended to show directional movement, not precise $BTC price targets.
My base case is that the B wave may have a little further to run before a final 5-wave decline completes the larger Y wave.
The precise levels are less important than the structure.
If that correction completes alongside an improvement in the geopolitical and macroeconomic risk environment, reflected by a falling Perfect Storm Index™, the conditions could then be in place for a powerful recovery towards new #BTC all-time highs.
Probabilities, not certainties. Structure first, targets second.
#Bitcoin

Perfect Storm Index™ 13 Aug 2026
Today’s PSI: 58/100 🟠
Risk Environment: Elevated
Bias: Risk-Off / Cautious
Risk has eased fractionally from yesterday’s 59, but the backdrop remains uncomfortable.
✅ VIX and credit stress remain subdued
✅ Inflation/Fed pressure has improved slightly
⚠️ US yields remain elevated
⚠️ Oil and geopolitical risk remain firm
⚠️ #Bitcoin trend and Elliott Wave structure still favour caution
The key point: we are not in a full “Perfect Storm”, but conditions remain vulnerable to deterioration.
A simultaneous rise in DXY, yields, oil and volatility would push PSI quick

Looking at the last two #BTC halving cycles, something interesting stands out.
#Bitcoin recorded a major cycle low:
• 513 days before the 2020 halving
• 516 days before the 2024 halving
Just a 3-day variation.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 2028.
If, and it's a big IF, that timing relationship persists, a comparable cycle low would fall around November 2026.
Interestingly, that aligns closely with my existing Elliott Wave work pointing towards a potential Q4 2026 low.
Two observations don't make a statistical law, but when independent methods begin pointing towards the same

Could #Bitcoin's entire history represent one enormous leading diagonal? Yes IMO.
If so, the 2025 ATH may be far more significant than simply the top of another four-year cycle.
It's not a prediction, it is a low-probability but potentially very high-consequence scenario that deserves to remain on the risk map.
A wave 2 following a leading diagonal is normally expected to be deep. A retracement toward 61.8% of the entire advance would put BTC somewhere around the $45–50k region depending on precisely where the diagonal is anchored.

#Bitcoin is still “treading water” within what I see as a corrective B wave. Price may drift a little higher from here, but the broader trend remains down.
Ideally, another push higher would lift RSI towards overbought territory while momentum fails to confirm the price advance, creating bearish divergence.
That would add technical weight to the case for a final C wave lower, completing the corrective cycle from the ATH.
No certainty. No prediction dressed up as fact. Just watching the probabilities and the risk environment. #BTC

The Perfect Storm Index™ 12 August 2026
Today’s PSI: 61/100 🟠
Market Pressure: ELEVATED
Daily Change: +2
Risk conditions have deteriorated modestly.
💵 DXY remains firm
📈 US yields remain elevated
🛢️ Oil/geopolitical risk is increasing
💧 Liquidity is showing early improvement
₿ Crypto sentiment remains cautious
The important point is the confluence. Dollar strength, elevated yields and higher oil are maintaining pressure on risk assets, even as liquidity begins to offer some offset. Today's markets continue to reflect those competing forces.
PSI doesn’t predict the future. It quantifies th

#Bitcoin advanced from the FTX low around $15,500 to the ATH in what appears to be a remarkably clean 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, with some compelling Fibonacci relationships.
Since the ATH, price appears to have shifted into corrective mode.
My preferred interpretation is that the correction is not yet complete and that at least one further leg lower remains probable before the larger bullish trend can resume.
That is a probability, not a prediction. If the structure changes, so does the view.
Short-term caution. Long-term opportunity.
#BTC #Crypto #ElliottWave

Tentative evidence that #DXY may have bottomed near the lower boundary of this long-term rising channel. A structure that has existed for almost the entire history of #Bitcoin.
If the channel continues to hold, renewed dollar strength could tighten financial conditions and increase pressure on #BTC and #Crypto.
This also helps explain why the Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated.
Not a prediction — a risk to be respected.
#DXY #Bitcoin #Macro #PSI

The Perfect Storm Index™ 11 August 2026
Today’s PSI: 59/100 🟠
Market Pressure: ELEVATED
Daily Change: +2
Risk conditions remain elevated, with liquidity still tight and the US dollar and yields remaining firm.
Volatility remains subdued, but risk appetite is constrained and the broader Elliott Wave/momentum picture remains cautious.
The important point: 59 is not a prediction. It is a measure of the current risk environment.
Stay defensive. Protect capital. Cash is a position.
#PerfectStormIndex #PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro