MatthewDixon

The #BTC rally from the February low toward May looks more like a 3-wave advance than a clean 5-wave impulse.
That increases probability that:
the rise is corrective,
and another decline could indeed follow.
Potentially ......
Larger A down completed in February
B wave rally into May
C wave lower now beginning
Bullish invalidation
If $BTC impulsively reclaims and sustains: 82–85k, then the bearish case weakens considerably.
Bearish confirmation
If BTC breaks: 73–74k decisively, then probability increases sharply for:
68k
64k
potentially 58–60k
This aligns with .......
Prior support
Fib retrace

According to cycle analysis and taking into account #Bitcoin Halving cycle, a low in $BTC is expected October or November 2026
We will just follow the waves but that does broadly fit with our wave analysis expectations

#BTC expectation broken down in EW terms.
We are working on a large C wave down to likely around bitcoin:native 52k.
We haven yet finished the 1st wave of C.
When wave 1 is complete we get wave 2 up then powerful 3 down as shown by the arrow

In what world is this B wave for #BTC not corrective?

It is looking more like the correction higher has completed for #LTC as we see the price now breaking down below the supporting trend line.
The movement higher from the $45 $LTC low can only be seen as corrective imo.

It is looking as though our interpretation of an ABC CORRECTION higher in #BTC was correct.
We had a minor push higher on Hidden Bullish Divergence BUT the prevailing downward $BTC trend is taking hold again with 5 small waves down from C in the making.
Probably still some nasty surprises on the Geopolitical scene will drive it

We may have completed the brief upward move on #BTC following the Hidden Bullish Divergence signal.
The move up from that signal is overlapping and therefore likely against the trend and so we should look for further downward movement soon

I am watching #SPX
Looking as though it has a little higher to go to finish the impulse in this cycle.
A higher high on price would likely not be accompanied by a higher RSI and this would give us Regular Bearish Divergence signalling a likely turn lower for $SPX at that time, with #BTC & #Crypto then correlated with the fall

The outlook for #XRP or most #Crypto for that matter, is that we are in a complex corrective phase which will break lower at some point soon BUT we may cut a surprise little spike higher to finalise the correction and shake out any shorts before we head lower.
Next push down should be the final wave in this $XRP cycle before we then head higher as $Crypto summer begins to shine

Decision time now for #LTC
$LTC hit the lower boundary of the channel as expected, so we either break down from here OR one final push to the top of the channel before breakdown

The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since May 2023.
Just imagine if #Trump had prevailed against FED Chair Powell and slashed interest rates. US would now be suffering #Hyperinflation.
Thankfully some stand up against the imbecilic tyrant that is Trump

We have short term Hidden Bullish Divergence on #BTC so maybe we now get a little upward movement before heading lower again.

#OIL is possibly the most interesting chart im watching at the moment as its a great barometer on the Geopolitical situation which in turn is driving risk asset prices #BTC #Crypto and #indices
Its NOT prompting me into action yet but I am watching to see if the E wave plays out and IF it does, I will be much more interested in looking at shorts for $BTC & #ALTs

#SOL is looking like a completed WXY correction higher with a further impulse down expected soon (UNLESS it morphs into a triangle in which case we get more sideways slightly upward movement before the same downward impulse but just delayed)
This $SOL pattern confirms in my mind that the market has not finished its painful decline YET but following another decline we could get a serious rally imo

Whilst we are in the midst of a choppy wave 4 for #DXY the #Dollar should ultimately break lower in a 5th wave and this would likely be BULLISH #BTC & #Crypto
There is plenty of room for RSI downside and a sharp $Dollar decline could give us the blow off top we are waiting for on risk assets.
Short term though the wave 4 needs to complete first

We MAY have already completed the WXY correction higher for #LTC or we have a little further to go to complete the Y wave. Either way, once the correction is complete $LTC should have a further impulse down before eventually turning to the upside.
This outlook aligns well with the outlook for most #Crypto and risk assets inc. #BTC

Looking for correlated assets to help with the direction of #BTC & #Crypto
#OIL appears to need a leg down to complete the E wave of the pre-terminal Triangle, before higher in its terminal wave.
That would likely mean a last ditch effort higher for $BTC $ALTs before lower in there terminal corrective wave

Right now it looks as though we will get AT LEAST another little push higher as the #BTC move down was in 3 waves (corrective) and is now overlapped with a move higher.
Overall im pleased I took a little profit on the $BTC short side and im now happy to wait and see ......

#BTC is showing short term Hidden Bullish Divergence on the 4hr chart and longer term Bearish Divergence on the Weekly chart.
So short term we have slightly bullish expectations but longer term the Bear Flag should prevail and take $BTC lower

Hidden Bullish Divergence on the 4 hour hints at higher still for #BTC