MatthewDixon

We breached the dotted $BTC support level, albeit only marginally. Even so, a breach is a breach, unless it occurs briefly in thin liquidity.
That uncertainty is enough for me to remain on the sidelines until price action provides genuine clarity. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

The market appears largely unsurprised by the latest US inflation data.
Headline CPI was exactly in line with expectations at 3.4%, while core inflation eased to 2.4% YoY. However, the 0.3% monthly core reading, against 0.2% expected, shows that underlying price pressures have not disappeared.
Overall: broadly as expected, with no immediate shock to force a major market repricing.

US INFLATION DATA DUE IN 30 MINUTES!
Markets are braced for a sharp acceleration in monthly inflation to 0.4%, up from 0.1% previously.
A hotter than expected print could strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and add pressure to Bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer figure could trigger the opposite reaction.
Expect volatility, the initial move may not be the lasting one. Manage leverage and stops carefully.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81
Extreme Risk | Unchanged today
Oil has retreated from its latest spike and equity futures are recovering, preventing a further increase in the PSI.
However, Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to 5%, geopolitical tensions remain acute and today’s CPI release could materially alter interest-rate expectations.
Conditions have stabilised but at an exceptionally elevated level.
Risk has paused, not passed.

So far, the dotted $BTC support at approximately $76,300 has held.
This remains a crucial level, and tomorrow’s #Inflation data could provide the catalyst for a decisive move.
An impulsive break below support would strengthen the case that a much larger decline in #Bitcoin is beginning. Until then, support remains intact but under pressure.

Six days until the next FOMC decision.
Markets currently price a 62.2% probability of a 25bp rate hike, but tomorrow’s US CPI report could materially shift those expectations.
The inflation data may provide the next major directional catalyst for risk assets, including #Bitcoin.
Volatility ahead.
#BTC #Crypto #FOMC #Inflation
Whilst traders are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike, most economists still expect the Fed to hold, making tomorrow’s CPI especially important.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81
High Risk +1 today
Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to cycle highs and geopolitical risks continue to threaten global energy flows.
Markets now face crucial US inflation data with expectations of further monetary tightening rising.
Volatility remains contained for now, limiting today’s increase.
Risk is intensifying, but not yet breaking.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #PSI

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 80
High Risk | +2 today
Brent’s surge towards $100, escalating Middle East conflict and the US 10-year yield near 4.80% have intensified inflation and monetary-policy risks ahead of Friday’s CPI.
Bitcoin remains near $79,000, while equities have weakened. However, the VIX at 15.33 and stable credit spreads indicate that systemic stress has not yet developed.
Risk is intensifying—not yet breaking.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #Oil #PSI

An important level to watch for bitcoin:native.
A break below the dotted line at approximately $76,300 would suggest that the fifth wave is complete and that a much deeper decline may be beginning.
If support holds, however, the latest high may represent only wave 1 of the final fifth wave, leaving waves 2, 3, 4 and 5 still to unfold higher.
Two valid scenarios but price will provide the confirmation. #Bitcoin #ElliottWave #Crypto

I’m keeping a close eye on #OIL, which remains the primary macro risk driver and carries obvious #Inflation implications.
Interestingly, rate-hike expectations have moderated slightly despite oil’s continued strength.
For now, market risk remains elevated but it has yet to translate into a meaningful volatility breakout. Complacency remains the key vulnerability imo

internet-computer:native has defended its year-long support near $2 once again and this bounce now looks meaningful.
The move appears primarily technical: repeated support, steady accumulation and a decisive push through the $2.50–$2.80 resistance zone.
#ICP is also showing relative strength while Bitcoin remains subdued, perhaps helped by renewed interest in its on-chain infrastructure and AI ecosystem.
RSI is now stretched, so some consolidation would be healthy but the market has again demonstrated that the long-term support zone matters.

Oil continues to rise, as we anticipated, adding another layer of pressure to the macro picture.
Iran are reportedly organising for a major push back against the US!
If crude breaks decisively above the $92–$96 resistance zone, renewed inflation concerns could push yields higher and delay monetary easing.
That may yet provide the catalyst for the final wave lower across risk assets, including Bitcoin, before a more durable bottom forms.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro

Oil continues to rise, as we anticipated, adding another layer of pressure to the macro picture.
If crude breaks decisively above the $92–$96 resistance zone, renewed inflation concerns could push yields higher and delay monetary easing.
That may yet provide the catalyst for the final wave lower across risk assets, including Bitcoin, before a more durable bottom forms.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro

The decline in #OIL reflected easing geopolitical tensions, helping to create the risk-on conditions that supported the anticipated #BTC and broader #Crypto rally.
This may represent the final fifth wave higher within wave C of the larger ABC correction.

Could this be a credible short-term five-wave count to end the #BTC C wave and terminate the correction higher? The sharp rejection from the proposed wave 5 strengthens the case that the impulse completed near $82.1k–$82.2k.
A few points:
3.618 is a NOT Fibonacci-derived extension and but commonly observed in highly extended crypto third waves. Wave 3 terminating around $81.35k is therefore reasonable.
Wave 4 appears relatively shallow and does not overlap wave 1 territory.
Wave 5 reaches approximately the 4.236 extension near $82.15k, producing a sensible terminal relationship after the exte