MatthewDixon

#ETH remains in lockstep with #BTC as markets await the next key data.
The sharp rally has reached major descending resistance, while RSI is easing from overbought levels. A decisive breakout would strengthen the bullish case but rejection here could signal that this is still a corrective advance.
Patience until the data provides direction.

#BTC is currently stalling around $78,000 after its sharp recovery from the June low.
The rally may still extend, but daily RSI remains elevated and price is approaching an important resistance zone around $80,000–$83,000.
For now, I continue to view this as a potential corrective B-wave rather than the beginning of a confirmed new bull trend. A sustained break above resistance would challenge that view; rejection would keep the risk of another significant leg lower firmly alive.
Patience here as confirmation matters more than prediction imo

#OIL has been an excellent proxy for market risk lately and that is no surprise, given its sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
The concern is that persistently higher oil feeds into costs and inflation, keeping pressure on interest rates. With markets now pricing a significant chance of another Fed hike, this creates further headwinds for risk assets.
Higher oil → higher inflation → tighter policy → pressure on #BTC, #ETH and equities.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 71/100
High Risk, up 2 points from yesterday’s 69.
Main pressures:
Brent oil above $91 amid renewed Gulf tensions.
US 10-year yield near 4.78%.
September Fed-hike probability around 65–66%.
Bitcoin struggling near $78,500.
The rise is contained because VIX remains low near 14.9 and high-yield credit spreads are still tight around 2.60%. Risk pressure is increasing, but markets are not yet showing disorderly stress.

Markets now price a 61.9% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.
Trump has called for sharply lower rates, but geopolitical tensions and oil above $90 are reviving inflation concerns.
Higher rates mean tighter liquidity and greater pressure on risk assets such as #Bitcoin.

#Bitcoin faces renewed pressure as Gulf conflict pushes oil above $90, reviving inflation fears and raising expectations of a September Fed rate hike.
Higher oil, elevated bond yields and tighter policy expectations drain liquidity from risk assets. Markets now price roughly a 58% probability of a September increase.
Russia’s new crypto framework and plans to permit #BTC, #ETH and #USDT as collateral is structurally significant.
But for near-term prices, #oil,#inflation and the #Fed matter more imo

⚠️ THE PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 69/100
Risk remains elevated but broadly unchanged.
Firm DXY and yields, tight liquidity, fragile crypto sentiment and bearish Elliott Wave risk continue to apply pressure. However, contained VIX and credit spreads and no fresh macro shock prevent a further rise.
Caution remains warranted. Cash is a position.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #PSI

#ETH hidden bearish divergence is a warning, not a sell signal on its own.
However, when combined with:
• A broader sequence of lower highs and lower lows
• RSI recently reaching overbought territory
• An Elliott Wave structure suggesting further downside
• An elevated Perfect Storm Index™
…I believe caution is firmly warranted here.
Confirmation must still come from price. #Ethereum #Crypto

We may have completed 5 waves down on #DXY
OR, we may have a 5th wave down still to come!
However, a rising DXY is not automatically bearish for #Bitcoin, nor is a falling #Dollar automatically bullish. The reasons matter.
A dollar rising on tight liquidity, higher real yields or safe-haven demand is generally negative for BTC.
A dollar falling because of monetary easing and expanding liquidity is generally positive.
But if DXY falls because of a US-led crisis, or rises alongside strong global growth then the usual inverse relationship may weaken.
Context matters more than direction.

#XRP, the chart has become substantially more constructive, but I would call it a potential major bottom rather than a confirmed new bull trend.
The bullish case is credible:
The decline from roughly $3.65 can be counted as a completed A–B–C correction.
Wave C reached the major $0.94–$1.00 support zone, close to the previous breakout area.
The forceful weekly reversal and RSI recovery from around oversold territory suggest capitulation and genuine demand.
Holding above approximately $1.20–$1.30, followed by a break above $1.70, would strengthen the bottoming case materially.
A subsequent recov

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 67/100
Storm Warning, up 3 points from yesterday’s confirmed 64.
The increase reflects hawkish Fed repricing, rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and renewed pressure across equities and crypto. Volatility and credit conditions remain orderly, preventing a more severe escalation - for now

Combining #Bitcoin’s halving cycle, mature-cycle symmetry, Elliott Wave structure and macro/liquidity timing gives us the best possible forecasting framework, in my opinion.
Best timing estimates:
As shown in my pinned post, #BTC and #ALTs are highly correlated, so I am using Bitcoin as the primary timing proxy, though there may be a lag as ALTs outperform at the peak.
🔻 Next major Bitcoin low: late September to mid-November 2026
🔺 Next major all-time high: late September to late October 2029
These are probability-based timing windows and not precise predictions so they will be refined as th

Combining #Bitcoin’s halving cycle, mature-cycle symmetry, Elliott Wave structure and macro/liquidity timing gives us the best possible forecasting framework, in my opinion.
Best timing estimates:
As shown in my pinned post, #BTC and #ALTs are highly correlated, so I am using Bitcoin as the primary timing proxy, though there may be a lag as ALTs outperform at the peak.
🔻 Next major Bitcoin low: late September to mid-November 2026
🔺 Next major all-time high: late September to late October 2029
These are probability-based timing windows and not precise predictions so they will be refined as th

⚠️ The Perfect Storm Index™ rises 2 points to 64/100 as risk remains elevated and the trend remains RISK-OFF.
Firm yields, resilient oil and geopolitical uncertainty continue to constrain risk appetite, while liquidity provides partial support.
Conditions are fragile rather than extreme: maintain cash, retain hedges, keep leverage low and remain selective.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

Still my favoured #BTC count.
I’m expecting a small a-b-c correction to complete wave 4, followed by a fifth wave higher to complete wave C of the broader ABC correction.
Thereafter, I expect the larger downtrend to resume towards the proposed Q4 low.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ElliottWave

A fantastic overnight surge from #SOL, entirely consistent with the extended C-wave scenario outlined well in advance.
The structure increasingly resembles a 3-3-5 flat correction. Once this C wave completes, it will likely give way to renewed downside as the market moves towards the proposed Q4 low.
Strong move, but potentially the final phase of a correction, not the beginning of a new bull trend imo

Today’s inputs point to a modest further easing, not a wholesale risk reset: Brent is down to about $87.84, the US 10-year yield has eased to 4.65%, and VIX is subdued at 14.92. Against that, inflation remains sticky, Middle East risk is elevated, crypto sentiment is still greedy, and tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech keeps event risk high. The resulting PSI at 61 represents the amalgamation of all these factors