MatthewDixon

#BTC has been guided pretty well within a parallel channel and I expect we will see a bounce now. (I AM NOT BUYING - JUST WAITING FOR A BETTER LVEL TO SELL)
Those who are less risk averse could consider scalping long positions with sensible targets and stops

The 1st wave down of the larger C wave appears to be about complete now - broken into 5 clean impulsive waves and even the internal 3rd wave is also broken into 5 waves with the 3rd being exactly 1,618 X 1st wave.
#BTC should soon head higher again in a 2nd wave towards the pink box target area.
Again it is dangerous to go long and better to await upside targets to go short imo

There we see that inverse correlation again. #Oil up 3% last night and the corresponding sell off in #BTC & #Crypto

#ETH appears to be showing us a clean impulse up to A and a wxy correction down to B
The next move should be higher in C wave likely to the circled target and this may be a good area to begin entering DCA short positions, adding if price goes a little higher BUT with defined risk in mind

Can you see the inverse correlation playing out between the #BTC and #OIL charts shown?
This has got to be a warning - DO NOT GET CAUGHT LONG $BTC (especially leveraged long) IMO
However, make your own decisions - just be careful and use stop losses wisely

WARNING!
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS LIKELY TO RE-ESCALATE SOON.
#OIL is working through a consolidation Triangle before blasting HIGHER (once the triangle is complete)
This means #BTC & #Crypto can push a little higher before the next BIG leg down.

PICK OF THE MONTH
#NEAR Protocol is one of the more interesting “survivor” Layer-1 projects right now because it has:
real technology, strong developer tooling and a clear AI narrative,
AND it avoided becoming a completely abandoned ghost chain.
But can it regain major mindshare and sustained user/network growth?
$NEAR held the $1 support zone and never had a decisive breakdown and that likely created a large accumulation base.
The recent move higher is impulsive! and accompanied by very strong #RSI momentum and the chart currently looks more bullish than bearish short-to-medium term.
So we ha

The short term "Traders" view for #BTC indicates that we will likely push a little higher before the next major impulse lower

The major trend is apparently still upward for #XAU
The larger structure from early 2025 into the 2026 highs is clearly impulsive, with strong momentum, steep slope, expanding ranges and persistent higher highs.
That usually means the dominant trend remains bullish unless decisively broken.
However, the recent structure looks corrective since the spike top around $XAU 5600. Price action became overlapping and messy, volatility increased, momentum weakened and #RSI failed to regain strong bullish territory which generally suggests consolidation, triangle/range behaviour or a larger degree corre

My ideal target for wave 2 termination is at the 61.8% FIB retracement of wave 1 @ $BTC 79,500
I am not buying the proposed move higher but I will be interested in beginning DCA short positioning of #BTC from 79,500 all the way to the beginning of wave 1 with invalidation and stop losses just above.

A minor tweak to the wavecount still has completed wave 1 (of large C down) broken nicely into 5 waves with the 3rd wave being 1.618 X wave 1
We are now working on the abc higher for wave 2 (with a & b likely complete.
I am not trading these moves (apart from small scalping positions)
If wave 2 completes cleanly then I might consider a bigger short position in #BTC and various other #Crypto #ALTs

The #BTC rally from the February low toward May looks more like a 3-wave advance than a clean 5-wave impulse.
That increases probability that:
the rise is corrective,
and another decline could indeed follow.
Potentially ......
Larger A down completed in February
B wave rally into May
C wave lower now beginning
Bullish invalidation
If $BTC impulsively reclaims and sustains: 82–85k, then the bearish case weakens considerably.
Bearish confirmation
If BTC breaks: 73–74k decisively, then probability increases sharply for:
68k
64k
potentially 58–60k
This aligns with .......
Prior support
Fib retrace

According to cycle analysis and taking into account #Bitcoin Halving cycle, a low in $BTC is expected October or November 2026
We will just follow the waves but that does broadly fit with our wave analysis expectations

#BTC expectation broken down in EW terms.
We are working on a large C wave down to likely around bitcoin:native 52k.
We haven yet finished the 1st wave of C.
When wave 1 is complete we get wave 2 up then powerful 3 down as shown by the arrow

In what world is this B wave for #BTC not corrective?

It is looking more like the correction higher has completed for #LTC as we see the price now breaking down below the supporting trend line.
The movement higher from the $45 $LTC low can only be seen as corrective imo.

It is looking as though our interpretation of an ABC CORRECTION higher in #BTC was correct.
We had a minor push higher on Hidden Bullish Divergence BUT the prevailing downward $BTC trend is taking hold again with 5 small waves down from C in the making.
Probably still some nasty surprises on the Geopolitical scene will drive it

We may have completed the brief upward move on #BTC following the Hidden Bullish Divergence signal.
The move up from that signal is overlapping and therefore likely against the trend and so we should look for further downward movement soon

I am watching #SPX
Looking as though it has a little higher to go to finish the impulse in this cycle.
A higher high on price would likely not be accompanied by a higher RSI and this would give us Regular Bearish Divergence signalling a likely turn lower for $SPX at that time, with #BTC & #Crypto then correlated with the fall

The outlook for #XRP or most #Crypto for that matter, is that we are in a complex corrective phase which will break lower at some point soon BUT we may cut a surprise little spike higher to finalise the correction and shake out any shorts before we head lower.
Next push down should be the final wave in this $XRP cycle before we then head higher as $Crypto summer begins to shine