MatthewDixon

Last time #ETH saw a 'Golden Cross', $ETH then rallied up to 124%
Now we have a 'Death Cross' combined with Bearish Divergence.
Its not a prediction but perhaps a warning that things MAY get nasty

The #BTC chart still favours another fall, although it is not yet confirmed.
$BTC has rallied into the $81,000–$84,000 resistance zone, where it is meeting the upper boundary of the corrective channel alongside the marked bearish divergences. The current monthly rejection near $78,000 supports the interpretation that wave B may be complete, leaving a decline in Y/C toward roughly $55,000 area.
Key levels:
Below $81,000–$84,000: bearish outlook remains preferred.
Break below $76,000: initial confirmation that the decline is resuming.
Break below $70,000: materially strengthens the case for anot

This is a valid weekly death cross: the 50-week moving average (orange, 105.03) has crossed below the 200-week moving average (green, 110.35) for #SOL
However, it is a lagging bearish confirmation, not a fresh sell signal. SOL has already fallen substantially, and the averages are only now crossing while price rebounds beneath both. It becomes more convincing if SOL is rejected around $105–110 and resumes its decline; a sustained recovery above both averages would weaken or potentially reverse the signal.

A FED HOLD on Wednesday is clearly not the base case. Futures imply an 88.5% probability of a hike and only 11.5% of no change. The Fed could still pause if incoming data weakens sharply or financial conditions deteriorate, but markets currently see a hike as overwhelmingly likely.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™: 84 HIGH RISK
Yesterday: 83 | Change: +1
The small increase is justified by:
Brent rising toward $108, intensifying inflation and supply risks.
The US 10-year yield remaining close to 5%.
Markets pricing an 86–87% probability of a Fed rate rise this week.
A firmer dollar and weaker equity futures.
Bitcoin stabilising near $77,600, preventing a larger PSI increase.
Conclusion: Risk conditions have deteriorated slightly, but yesterday’s elevated score already captured much of the oil, geopolitical and rates pressure. 84 is therefore more defensible than a sharp incre

Zooming in on the shorter term daily #BTC chart, the US #Inflation release provided a useful warning signal. Regular bearish divergence coincided with the channel top and a potentially completed Elliott Wave cycle.
Whatever the Fed decides on Wednesday, I expect its guidance to remain sufficiently hawkish to place further downward pressure on $BTC and the wider #Crypto market.

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
84 / 100
🔴 EXTREME RISK | +1 TODAY
The PSI rises modestly from 83 to 84 as geopolitical and energy-market risks intensify.
Key drivers:
Saudi markets have weakened following the drone attacks and shutdown of the critical East–West oil pipeline.
Fighting around Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb threatens another strategically important shipping route.
Oil above $100 continues to reinforce global inflation risk.
Markets now assign more than an 85% probability to a US interest-rate increase this week.
The US 10-year Treasury yield remains restrictive near 5%.
How

Most likely #BTC Elliott Wave interpretation imo, is:
W completed $59,930.
X completed near $82,833.
Wave A of Y completed near $58,000.
The current rally toward $82,000 is wave B of Y.
Wave C of Y would then be the next decline, potentially only travelling toward the lower channel boundary.
The rejection area is strengthened by three factors:
Price is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel.
The rally appears corrective and overlapping.
Price has made a lower high while weekly RSI has made a higher high being consistent with hidden bearish divergence.

Michael Saylor will always say, “Just buy Bitcoin.”
But the weekly chart currently shows hidden bearish divergence, the Perfect Storm Index™ is in extreme-risk territory, and Elliott Wave suggests another decline may be needed to complete the cycle.
Long-term conviction should not mean ignoring short-term risk.

Markets are now pricing an 87.3% probability of a 25bp US rate rise on Wednesday, up sharply from 59.4% just one week ago.
Economists remain divided, but expectations have shifted following hotter inflation data and oil’s rise above $100.
The market now clearly expects the Fed to act and even if it holds, the accompanying guidance is likely to remain hawkish.
That combination could place further pressure on #BTC and #Crypto imo

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ — 12 SEPTEMBER 2026
83 / 100
🔴 EXTREME RISK | +2 TODAY
The PSI rises from yesterday’s 81 to 83, driven by a further deterioration in geopolitical and energy-market risk.
Key drivers:
Saudi Arabia’s critical East–West oil pipeline has reportedly been shut following a drone attack.
Disruption around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is intensifying.
Oil remains above $100 and is heading for a substantial weekly gain.
Higher energy costs are reinforcing inflationary pressure.
US Treasury yields remain restrictive, with the 10-year yield close to 5%.
#Bitcoin remains vulnerable w

Should the world be concerned?
Will Americans sell their souls for a $5,000 Trump promise?
This is not about political allegiance. It is about whether the world’s most powerful nation remains constrained by constitutional and international law.
In my view, the answer has profound implications for global stability, #BTC and #Crypto.

We breached the dotted $BTC support level, albeit only marginally. Even so, a breach is a breach, unless it occurs briefly in thin liquidity.
That uncertainty is enough for me to remain on the sidelines until price action provides genuine clarity. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

The market appears largely unsurprised by the latest US inflation data.
Headline CPI was exactly in line with expectations at 3.4%, while core inflation eased to 2.4% YoY. However, the 0.3% monthly core reading, against 0.2% expected, shows that underlying price pressures have not disappeared.
Overall: broadly as expected, with no immediate shock to force a major market repricing.

US INFLATION DATA DUE IN 30 MINUTES!
Markets are braced for a sharp acceleration in monthly inflation to 0.4%, up from 0.1% previously.
A hotter than expected print could strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and add pressure to Bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer figure could trigger the opposite reaction.
Expect volatility, the initial move may not be the lasting one. Manage leverage and stops carefully.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81
Extreme Risk | Unchanged today
Oil has retreated from its latest spike and equity futures are recovering, preventing a further increase in the PSI.
However, Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to 5%, geopolitical tensions remain acute and today’s CPI release could materially alter interest-rate expectations.
Conditions have stabilised but at an exceptionally elevated level.
Risk has paused, not passed.

So far, the dotted $BTC support at approximately $76,300 has held.
This remains a crucial level, and tomorrow’s #Inflation data could provide the catalyst for a decisive move.
An impulsive break below support would strengthen the case that a much larger decline in #Bitcoin is beginning. Until then, support remains intact but under pressure.