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MatthewDixon

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If #Bitcoin follows a broadly similar pattern to previous cycles then we have....
Halving: April 2024
Cycle top: approximately Q3–Q4 2025
Major bear-market low: approximately Q3–Q4 2026
Next halving: 2028
That places October 2026 almost exactly where historical analysis would expect a major cycle low in $BTC
Not a guarantee but just going on the available data
BTC4.61%
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#LTC still looks to be in the throws of an abc correction higher.
We can see that the odds of a higher correction beyond 100% equality are quite high and so what we see with $LTC is not unexpected.
The #FED interest rate announcement may unfortunately be bad news for #Litecoin & #Crypto in general
LTC4.37%
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#BTC has reached the 100% extension of the 'a' wave, for the current 'c' wave (as we expected)
$BTC certainly has the potential to go a little higher but the FED meeting is still likely to be a turning point with Hawkish rhetoric damaging #Bitcoin and #Crypto prospects in the near term
BTC4.61%
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It is possible that the Triangle in $OIL has completed with the E wave falling short of the trend line (as allowed)
Lower #OIL prices will certainly ease inflation and allow reduction of interest rates (perhaps be the next #FED meeting, probably not tomorrow.
However bear in mind that IF this is a triangle then this is a PRE-TERMINAL wave and the move lower will be the TERMINAL final wave in this cycle before another sharp reversal higher for OIL in the months ahead,
This can help inform our #BTC #Crypto positioning
BTC4.61%
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Interesting charts this morning.
#DXY looks to have almost completed WXY (3,3,3) correction for wave 4 and so we should expect a 5th wave down soon to accentuate #Dollar weakness.
Come October we may well see a reversal in $ fortunes and we should interpret risk assets #BTC etc in this light
BTC4.61%
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Its looking more and more as though the FOMC Interest Rate announcement on Wednesday will be a Hawkish/Bearish event.
At around $BTC 65k the C wave = A wave (the most common relationship) which could signal the beginning of the next move down.
Overall #BTC is posting a series of lower lows and lower highs indicating we are still in a down trend, likely until the cycle low around October
BTC4.61%
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The short term overhead target of around $SOL 70 looks to coincide with the #FOMC meeting which on this basis will be a Hawkish event hinting at higher interest rates ahead to combat #Inflation caused by Trumps wars and Tariffs.
The low is still expected around October to coincide with the #BTC halving cycle low and then renewed liquidity should begin to flow and resuscitate markets which may be on "life support" by then
SOL11.09%
BTC4.61%
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If I were ranking purely on fundamentals today
Hyperliquid #HYPE
Jupiter #JUP
Aave #AAVE
Aerodrome #AERO
#GMX
PancakeSwap #CAKE
The key thing I look for is "holder revenue" or actual fees, buybacks, burns, or distributions generated by real users.
Many tokens advertise 10–20% staking yields, but those yields often come from token emissions rather than genuine cash flow. The protocols above generate meaningful revenue from actual economic activity.
HYPE13.24%
JUP18.03%
AAVE15.62%
AERO19.38%
GMX8.23%
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I asked Ai, "Is Trump is a liar?"
The diplomatic answer came back that it depends on your perspective.
"A false statement can be objectively shown to be untrue.
A lie usually implies the speaker knew it was false and intended to deceive."
So the argument of supporters is that, although Fact Checking organisations prove his statements to be untrue, they are not necessarily lies if he doesnt know that what he says is untrue.
So maybe Trump just doesn't know what he's saying.
But I was always thought that ignorance is no excuse.
Either way, his "misleading" statements allow for insiders to profit
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The Triangle scenario for #OIL remains intact as a real possibility, with #BTC & #Crypto likely moving with inverse correlation
BTC4.61%
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I asked Ai, "Is Trump is a liar?"
The diplomatic answer came back that it depends on your perspective.
"A false statement can be objectively shown to be untrue.
A lie usually implies the speaker knew it was false and intended to deceive."
So the argument of supporters is that, although Fact Checking organisations prove his statements to be untrue, they are not necessarily lies if he doesnt know that what he says is untrue.
So maybe Trump just doesn't know what he's saying.
But I was always thought that ignorance is no excuse.
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#BTC is not looking impulsive to the upside yet.
I have closed a few tentative long positions (even though it should go a little higher)
Market is likely "treading water" ahead of the FOMC meeting next Wednesday which may give renewed direction for $BTC and #Crypto.
The market has become inured to lies issued by Trump and so reaction is muted on anything he says, awaiting reality in order to inform decision making
BTC4.61%
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I had hoped that the low was in for #LTC but it is becoming unlikely as we observe the choppy overlapping price action from the low indicative of correction - not impulse
We will likely see a little higher before another leg down in continuation of the break from the Bear Flag
LTC4.37%
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#PPI came in way above expectations AGAIN.
This is more bad news for those awaiting an interest rate cut.
I will say it again - So much for Trump bullying the last Fed Chair. Trump's insistence on lower rates would have been catastrophic if Powell had acquiesced.
Though Trump is a Master of fake news in order to manipulate markets and line his pockets - "allegedly"
Its ordinary people who are paying via higher prices as we see in the numbers.
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#FOMC meeting on the 17th could offer some future easing hopes for #InterestRates and give some short term relief for #BTC & #Crypto
However, we have no signs of a major turn just yet and the mainstream view is that we will continue the downtrend (lower lows& highs) to hit $BTC low in October
BTC4.61%
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Looking at the previous SIX times RSI has shown as oversold on #BTC, shortly after the $BTC price has appreciated significantly.
NOT to say that the bottom is definitely in but we should SOON see a reversal imo
So rather than commit everything when price could still go a little lower, better to begin DCA to give an average entry price
BTC4.61%
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The current readings of extreme fear are a sign that a #BTC & #Crypto recovery may be close as positioning is very -VE and one sided, meaning that a reversal may snap $BTC price back quickly, especially bearing in mind that the upcoming FOMC meeting could be the impetus for a reversal.
BTC4.61%
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This is my preferred EW count for #BTC from the ATH at the top, down to the current price, in the form of WXY correction (two abc corrections connected by an X wave)
This is very encouraging as it appears to be a correction from the $BTC high, meaning that a new ATH should come EVENTUALLY, BUT the ? is whether the Y wave is complete???
The outcome of the FOMC meeting in six days may give us some clarity
BTC4.61%
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The Triangle could even already be completed for #OIL which should mean Bullishness for risk assets #BTC & #Crypto immediately with further "fuel" at the #FED meeting next week
BTC4.61%
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YET ANOTHER indication that we will likely see $BTC & $Crypto rise from here.
Notice that the low points in #BTC are all coincident with massively oversold #RSI, which when it reverses higher, takes $BITCOIN higher with it.
We are currently coming out of the most oversold BTC RSI seen for years!
BTC4.61%
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