MatthewDixon

A fantastic overnight surge from #SOL, entirely consistent with the extended C-wave scenario outlined well in advance.
The structure increasingly resembles a 3-3-5 flat correction. Once this C wave completes, it will likely give way to renewed downside as the market moves towards the proposed Q4 low.
Strong move, but potentially the final phase of a correction, not the beginning of a new bull trend imo

Today’s inputs point to a modest further easing, not a wholesale risk reset: Brent is down to about $87.84, the US 10-year yield has eased to 4.65%, and VIX is subdued at 14.92. Against that, inflation remains sticky, Middle East risk is elevated, crypto sentiment is still greedy, and tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech keeps event risk high. The resulting PSI at 61 represents the amalgamation of all these factors

The sharp fall in $OIL may prove temporary. The chart continues to show valid impulsive structures to the upside, with extended fifth waves, a common feature in commodities.
If oil rebounds, potentially driven by rising geopolitical tensions, it could pressure #BTC and #Crypto through renewed inflation concerns and weaker risk appetite.
One to watch closely imo.

ADA’s short-term structure has improved, but I would still treat the recent surge as a corrective rally within the broader downtrend until stronger resistance is reclaimed.
At roughly $0.211:
Holding $0.20–$0.205 keeps the immediate recovery alive.
A break above $0.23 would target the spike region around $0.255–$0.26.
Sustained acceptance above $0.26 would be the first persuasive evidence of a larger trend reversal, potentially opening $0.28–$0.30.
Losing $0.20 would expose $0.185, followed by the important $0.17–$0.175 support zone.
A break beneath $0.17 would make a retest of $0.15–$0.14 inc

I suspect we may only have completed wave 3 of the C wave within the larger ABC correction higher.
If correct, wave 4 could now retrace into the price territory of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree (small red labels), before a final fifth wave carries #BTC higher to complete the correction.
As ever, this is a probability, not a certainty.

The Perfect Storm Index™ falls slightly from 64 to 62 today.
Risk conditions have eased at the margin, but the broader environment remains elevated. This is not an all-clear signal as macro, liquidity and technical risks still favour caution and disciplined position sizing.
Cash is a position.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

I expect another push higher in #LTC to complete the corrective ABC structure.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™: 64/100 — HIGH RISK ⚠️
Improving crypto momentum and some easing in yields are providing support, but persistent inflation, oil, bond-market and geopolitical risks keep the broader environment fragile.
Conditions remain risk-off. Caution and disciplined risk management are still warranted.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Markets

The fifth wave of the proposed #BTC B-wave may now be complete, or it could still extend higher.
Wave 3 was already extended, but Elliott Wave allows both waves 3 and 5 to extend within the same impulse.
With daily RSI deeply overbought, I would remain cautious and wait for confirmation rather than assume the top is in.

Is #XAU heading to a new ATH following a textbook ABC correction (where C=0.618xA)?
"China is importing #gold at a rate equivalent to 42% of global mine production. It is estimated to hold 2,400 tonnes of gold and may be buying considerably more than it officially reports.
Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the world’s leading reserve asset as central banks and private investors continue accumulating gold.
Japan, China and the UK all significantly reduced their holdings of US government debt in June"
Is the world is preparing for an American collapse?

The #BTC wave 4 completion was identified at the c=a target before this fifth wave began.
This final push higher could complete an aggressive ABC correction, potentially marking a significant top before the proposed larger impulsive decline into the Q4 cyclical low.
The structure is becoming clearer but confirmation remains essential.

Even the smaller wave 4 near the current #BTC high shows a clean Fibonacci relationship, with wave c approximately equal to wave a, the most common relationship.
Once the final fifth wave higher completes, the broader corrective rally should give way to another impulsive move lower towards our anticipated Q4 low.
The path may vary. The destination remains the focus.

A more detailed breakdown of the #BTC wave count shows the final Y wave unfolding as a 5-3-5 zigzag correction.
The current B-wave rally may be nearing completion, with the final five-wave decline towards the proposed Q4 low still outstanding.
As always, the structure not the forecast will determine the path.

This detailed Elliott Wave breakdown for #ETH highlights a textbook 1.618 Fibonacci relationship between waves 1 and 3.
If this count is correct, waves 4 and 5 should complete the current impulse before ETH potentially turns lower towards our Q4 downside target.

#LTC has moved entirely in line with the expectations outlined in my earlier posts.
However, the advance still appears corrective, potentially a 3-3-5 flat. Once complete, the structure calls for another low into Q4 before $LTC finally comes to life in what could be a major 2027 rally, IMO.

#BTC continues to align with my primary Elliott Wave count, with a cycle low expected in Q4.
Short term, we may see one final push higher while the hidden bearish divergence remains intact, before price turns lower to complete the Y wave.
That would complete the corrective structure from the ATH and potentially set the stage for a powerful advance to new $BTC highs, with the wider #Crypto market following and a new #ALTSEASON beginning.

We are now on the second daily candle following the doji, suggesting that consolidation may support a little further upside in the short term.
#SOL appears to be forming a 3–3–5 flat correction from the June low. Once complete, potentially around $103–$109, I expect $SOL to turn lower again alongside the broader #Crypto market.
Short-term strength, but the wider corrective structure remains incomplete.

⚠️ Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ 66/100 STORM WARNING
Risk remains elevated.
Higher Treasury yields, geopolitical and trade tensions, and oil-driven inflation risks outweigh calmer volatility and Bitcoin’s rebound.
The PSI measures the environment not the next candle.
Navigate risk. Protect capital. Find opportunity.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Markets #Macro

The Perfect Storm Index™ continues to signal an elevated risk environment.
Macro pressures remain finely balanced, with oil, the US dollar and broader risk sentiment keeping markets vulnerable to renewed volatility.
This is not a prediction, it is a measure of risk. Capital preservation and disciplined positioning remain essential.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro

We need to wait for the final daily candle to close before drawing firm conclusions. Right now, it resembles a potential doji, signalling market indecision for #SOL.
That perfectly reflects the current setup, with opposing Elliott Wave counts carrying almost equal probability.
When the market is undecided, we should remain flexible. Managing risk is key.