We need to wait for the final daily candle to close before drawing firm conclusions. Right now, it resembles a potential doji, signalling market indecision for #SOL.
That perfectly reflects the current setup, with opposing Elliott Wave counts carrying almost equal probability.
When the market is undecided, we should remain flexible. Managing risk is key.

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MatthewDixon

35m ago

#OIL keeps me on alert. The chart increasingly suggests higher prices may lie ahead, potentially signalling a further escalation in geopolitical risk.
The knock-on effects of another oil surge would be inflationary, restrictive for monetary policy and negative for risk assets, including #Crypto and #BTC.

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MatthewDixon

1h ago

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ remains firmly in the HIGH-RISK zone.
Tight liquidity, a firming DXY and elevated yields continue to create an unfavourable backdrop for risk assets, while subdued volatility and complacent sentiment leave markets vulnerable to a sharper move.
PSI does not predict the future, it measures the prevailing risk environment. For now, caution and disciplined risk management remain essential imo.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #RiskManagement

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MatthewDixon

9h ago

I asked Ai, if it were to construct the most evil person, what characteristics would it program in?
This was its answer,
Does it remind you of anybody we all know?
An evil person, whether real or made by artificial intelligence, shows a lack of care for others. They use people for their own gain. They break rules and hurt others without feeling bad about it.
Core Traits
•No empathy: They do not care how others feel or if they suffer.
•Extreme selfishness: They put their own wants above all else.
•Lying a lot: They use deceit to trick and control people.
•No guilt: They never feel sorry for th

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MatthewDixon

20h ago

Here is a clear example of an extremely aggressive advance, similar to what we are currently seeing across #BTC and #Crypto.
Yet price subsequently reversed sharply from the ATH.
Momentum alone does not prove that a move will continue. We must assess the broader structure and weigh all the available evidence.
In this case, $BTC peaked at a precise Fibonacci extension while displaying clear bearish RSI divergence.
Aggressive price action can still occur within a corrective move. Context is everything.

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MatthewDixon

22h ago

Is the #ADA advance impulsive?
Potentially yes, but it is not yet a clean, confirmed impulse.
From the June low, the advance contains considerable overlap, which makes the broader structure look more like a developing leading diagonal or a corrective base than a textbook five-wave impulse. However, the latest leg from the August pullback is sharp, has broken above the preceding swing high near $0.20, and is supported by RSI above 70 i.e. credible impulsive characteristics.
I would look for a strong daily close above approximately $0.21–$0.22.
A controlled three-wave pullback holding roughly $0

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MatthewDixon

22h ago

The Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated today, signalling that the wider risk environment still warrants caution.
Although selected assets are attempting to recover, liquidity, macro uncertainty and technical structure continue to favour disciplined risk management over aggressive positioning.
PSI does not predict the market, it measures the conditions surrounding it.
Cash is a position. Patience is a strategy.
#PerfectStormIndex #PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

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MatthewDixon

23h ago

Why is almost everyone ignoring the 28% rise in #OIL over the past month?
Oil is not merely another chart. A sustained increase can revive inflation pressure, restrict central-bank flexibility and tighten financial conditions, potentially creating a significant headwind for risk assets.
This is precisely why oil forms part of the Perfect Storm Index™.
#Macro #Bitcoin #Crypto

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MatthewDixon

08-20 09:16

#ETH is potentially developing an interesting Hidden Bearish Divergence but it is too early to call it confirmed.
Price is currently testing the previous high while RSI has already pushed significantly higher into overbought territory.
For a genuine signal, I want to see price fail to exceed the previous swing high and begin to reject from this area, ideally accompanied by confirming candle structure and weakening momentum.
If that happens, the combination of a lower price high + higher RSI high would confirm Hidden Bearish Divergence and add weight to the case that this remains a corrective r

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MatthewDixon

08-20 08:58

#SOL is providing some of the clearest evidence, IMO, that the current move higher is corrective rather than the start of a new bullish impulse.
The key is overlap.
The internal structure does not support a clean 5-wave impulsive advance, so I currently favour a 3-wave corrective interpretation.
The strength of this latest move doesn't change that, as C waves can be extremely powerful and impulsive in appearance.
RSI is also now stretched into overbought territory as price approaches the upper Fibonacci targets.
If this interpretation is correct, once the correction completes I would expect an

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MatthewDixon

08-20 08:46

#BTC has now reached the minimum target for the c wave of the larger B-wave correction.
But reaching a target does not mean the move has to end here.
C waves can be aggressive and often extend potentially towards the 1.382 or 1.618 extensions shown on the chart.
With RSI now stretched, I’ll be watching momentum, divergence and the developing lower-timeframe wave structure closely for evidence that c is completing.
For now, my primary thesis remains unchanged:
Corrective rally higher → completion of B → larger C wave lower, with Q4 remaining my preferred window for the broader cyclical low.
Tar

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MatthewDixon

08-20 07:14

#LTC continues to track our proposed wave count remarkably well.
Price is now accelerating higher from the proposed b-wave low, with the next Fibonacci levels providing a roadmap towards the potential c/B-wave termination zone.
But context matters.
I still view this as a corrective rally within a larger decline, not the beginning of a new impulsive bull trend.
If the structure continues to play out, I expect this recovery ultimately to give way to renewed downside into Q4, potentially completing the broader cyclical correction.
Trade the structure, not the narrative. #Crypto

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MatthewDixon

08-19 18:13

#BTC beginning to confirm yesterday’s roadmap.
RSI has now broken through the overhead resistance I highlighted, while price has accelerated higher and exactly what I wanted to see if the c-wave of the larger B-wave was underway.
I’m now watching for this move to develop into a 5-wave impulse higher, with the $69.5k–$71.7k region the next important area.
If that structure completes as expected, attention then turns to the possibility of the much larger C-wave decline.
One step at a time. Structure → confirmation → probability. #Bitcoin #Crypto

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MatthewDixon

08-19 18:08

#LTC continuing to follow the roadmap laid out yesterday.
Price is now pushing higher from the proposed b-wave low, with momentum beginning to strengthen.
My preferred scenario remains a continuation higher towards the B-wave termination zone around $52–58.
Importantly, I still view this as a corrective rally, not necessarily the beginning of a new bullish trend.
Structure first. Targets second. Confirmation always. #Crypto

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MatthewDixon

08-19 10:31

TA can be remarkable when independent signals converge.
Look at #LINK.
The B decline produced an almost perfect 100% Fibonacci relationship with A, while the low simultaneously developed regular bullish RSI divergence.
Two completely different tools pointing towards the same potential turning area and price responded strongly.
Now the picture becomes less straightforward. RSI has moved into overbought territory, so despite the impressive recovery I want to see more price structure before deciding whether this is simply a corrective rally or the beginning of something larger.
Confluence identif

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pranav:

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MatthewDixon

08-19 09:57

The #SPX chart I posted a few days ago already had the bearish momentum divergence in place.
Price has since begun to weaken, exactly the type of risk that divergence was warning us about.
But a warning is not the same as a trade signal.
I’m keeping my powder dry for now and waiting for broader confirmation across price structure, momentum and the macro risk environment before committing capital.
Patience is a position too.
#SPX #Stocks #Markets

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MatthewDixon

08-19 09:46

As with #BTC and #Crypto more broadly, I’m watching for the #LTC corrective rally to begin gathering momentum.
My preferred scenario remains a B-wave recovery, potentially towards the $52–58 resistance region, before a larger C-wave decline develops.
The important distinction: higher near term does not necessarily mean the larger correction is over.
As always, the wave structure will determine the probabilities — not the target.
#Litecoin #ElliottWave

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MatthewDixon

08-18 10:54

Watching #BTC RSI support & resistance closely.
The recent b wave low coincided nicely with RSI support.
If the expected c wave of the larger B wave is now developing, I would expect:
→ RSI to break the circled overhead resistance
→ Momentum to strengthen
→ Price action to become increasingly impulsive
An eventual move towards overbought RSI would add further confirmation.
If RSI continues to reject this resistance, however, it would make me increasingly cautious about the bullish short-term count.
Let momentum confirm the wave count rather than forcing the count onto price.
#Bitcoin #ElliottW

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MatthewDixon

08-18 09:06

There are still multiple ways the current #BTC B-wave could develop.
We could push higher directly, extend into a more complex correction, or even morph into a triangle.
The precise short-term path is less important than the character of the price action:
Choppy. Overlapping. Sideways. Corrective.
That is exactly what we would expect from a B-wave.
Eventually that should change.
If my larger count is correct, completion of B should give way to a much more directional and impulsive C-wave decline.
Don’t confuse uncertainty over the short-term path with uncertainty over the larger structure.
#Bi

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MatthewDixon

08-18 08:55

Could #OIL be the canary in the coal mine for #Bitcoin and #Crypto?
WTI is pushing higher again and the structure increasingly interests me.
Why it matters:
$OIL ↑
→ Inflation pressure ↑
→ Bond yields / rate risk ↑
→ Financial conditions tighten
→ Risk assets become more vulnerable
This doesn't mean #BTC must fall immediately. I still see scope for the current B-wave to complete higher.
But rising oil is exactly the kind of underlying risk that can build quietly while markets remain relatively calm.
One reason my Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated.
Watch oil. It may be telling us something

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