MatthewDixon

Most likely #BTC Elliott Wave interpretation imo, is:
W completed $59,930.
X completed near $82,833.
Wave A of Y completed near $58,000.
The current rally toward $82,000 is wave B of Y.
Wave C of Y would then be the next decline, potentially only travelling toward the lower channel boundary.
The rejection area is strengthened by three factors:
Price is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel.
The rally appears corrective and overlapping.
Price has made a lower high while weekly RSI has made a higher high being consistent with hidden bearish divergence.

Michael Saylor will always say, “Just buy Bitcoin.”
But the weekly chart currently shows hidden bearish divergence, the Perfect Storm Index™ is in extreme-risk territory, and Elliott Wave suggests another decline may be needed to complete the cycle.
Long-term conviction should not mean ignoring short-term risk.

Markets are now pricing an 87.3% probability of a 25bp US rate rise on Wednesday, up sharply from 59.4% just one week ago.
Economists remain divided, but expectations have shifted following hotter inflation data and oil’s rise above $100.
The market now clearly expects the Fed to act and even if it holds, the accompanying guidance is likely to remain hawkish.
That combination could place further pressure on #BTC and #Crypto imo

PERFECT STORM INDEX™ — 12 SEPTEMBER 2026
83 / 100
🔴 EXTREME RISK | +2 TODAY
The PSI rises from yesterday’s 81 to 83, driven by a further deterioration in geopolitical and energy-market risk.
Key drivers:
Saudi Arabia’s critical East–West oil pipeline has reportedly been shut following a drone attack.
Disruption around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is intensifying.
Oil remains above $100 and is heading for a substantial weekly gain.
Higher energy costs are reinforcing inflationary pressure.
US Treasury yields remain restrictive, with the 10-year yield close to 5%.
#Bitcoin remains vulnerable w

Should the world be concerned?
Will Americans sell their souls for a $5,000 Trump promise?
This is not about political allegiance. It is about whether the world’s most powerful nation remains constrained by constitutional and international law.
In my view, the answer has profound implications for global stability, #BTC and #Crypto.

We breached the dotted $BTC support level, albeit only marginally. Even so, a breach is a breach, unless it occurs briefly in thin liquidity.
That uncertainty is enough for me to remain on the sidelines until price action provides genuine clarity. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

The market appears largely unsurprised by the latest US inflation data.
Headline CPI was exactly in line with expectations at 3.4%, while core inflation eased to 2.4% YoY. However, the 0.3% monthly core reading, against 0.2% expected, shows that underlying price pressures have not disappeared.
Overall: broadly as expected, with no immediate shock to force a major market repricing.

US INFLATION DATA DUE IN 30 MINUTES!
Markets are braced for a sharp acceleration in monthly inflation to 0.4%, up from 0.1% previously.
A hotter than expected print could strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and add pressure to Bitcoin and other risk assets. A softer figure could trigger the opposite reaction.
Expect volatility, the initial move may not be the lasting one. Manage leverage and stops carefully.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81
Extreme Risk | Unchanged today
Oil has retreated from its latest spike and equity futures are recovering, preventing a further increase in the PSI.
However, Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to 5%, geopolitical tensions remain acute and today’s CPI release could materially alter interest-rate expectations.
Conditions have stabilised but at an exceptionally elevated level.
Risk has paused, not passed.

So far, the dotted $BTC support at approximately $76,300 has held.
This remains a crucial level, and tomorrow’s #Inflation data could provide the catalyst for a decisive move.
An impulsive break below support would strengthen the case that a much larger decline in #Bitcoin is beginning. Until then, support remains intact but under pressure.

Six days until the next FOMC decision.
Markets currently price a 62.2% probability of a 25bp rate hike, but tomorrow’s US CPI report could materially shift those expectations.
The inflation data may provide the next major directional catalyst for risk assets, including #Bitcoin.
Volatility ahead.
#BTC #Crypto #FOMC #Inflation
Whilst traders are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a hike, most economists still expect the Fed to hold, making tomorrow’s CPI especially important.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 81
High Risk +1 today
Brent remains above $100, Treasury yields are close to cycle highs and geopolitical risks continue to threaten global energy flows.
Markets now face crucial US inflation data with expectations of further monetary tightening rising.
Volatility remains contained for now, limiting today’s increase.
Risk is intensifying, but not yet breaking.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #PSI

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 80
High Risk | +2 today
Brent’s surge towards $100, escalating Middle East conflict and the US 10-year yield near 4.80% have intensified inflation and monetary-policy risks ahead of Friday’s CPI.
Bitcoin remains near $79,000, while equities have weakened. However, the VIX at 15.33 and stable credit spreads indicate that systemic stress has not yet developed.
Risk is intensifying—not yet breaking.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #Oil #PSI

An important level to watch for bitcoin:native.
A break below the dotted line at approximately $76,300 would suggest that the fifth wave is complete and that a much deeper decline may be beginning.
If support holds, however, the latest high may represent only wave 1 of the final fifth wave, leaving waves 2, 3, 4 and 5 still to unfold higher.
Two valid scenarios but price will provide the confirmation. #Bitcoin #ElliottWave #Crypto

I’m keeping a close eye on #OIL, which remains the primary macro risk driver and carries obvious #Inflation implications.
Interestingly, rate-hike expectations have moderated slightly despite oil’s continued strength.
For now, market risk remains elevated but it has yet to translate into a meaningful volatility breakout. Complacency remains the key vulnerability imo

internet-computer:native has defended its year-long support near $2 once again and this bounce now looks meaningful.
The move appears primarily technical: repeated support, steady accumulation and a decisive push through the $2.50–$2.80 resistance zone.
#ICP is also showing relative strength while Bitcoin remains subdued, perhaps helped by renewed interest in its on-chain infrastructure and AI ecosystem.
RSI is now stretched, so some consolidation would be healthy but the market has again demonstrated that the long-term support zone matters.