Even the smaller wave 4 near the current #BTC high shows a clean Fibonacci relationship, with wave c approximately equal to wave a, the most common relationship.
Once the final fifth wave higher completes, the broader corrective rally should give way to another impulsive move lower towards our anticipated Q4 low.
The path may vary. The destination remains the focus.

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MatthewDixon

4h ago

A more detailed breakdown of the #BTC wave count shows the final Y wave unfolding as a 5-3-5 zigzag correction.
The current B-wave rally may be nearing completion, with the final five-wave decline towards the proposed Q4 low still outstanding.
As always, the structure not the forecast will determine the path.

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Arifkhan1:

95000k✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️

MatthewDixon

5h ago

This detailed Elliott Wave breakdown for #ETH highlights a textbook 1.618 Fibonacci relationship between waves 1 and 3.
If this count is correct, waves 4 and 5 should complete the current impulse before ETH potentially turns lower towards our Q4 downside target.

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MatthewDixon

5h ago

#LTC has moved entirely in line with the expectations outlined in my earlier posts.
However, the advance still appears corrective, potentially a 3-3-5 flat. Once complete, the structure calls for another low into Q4 before $LTC finally comes to life in what could be a major 2027 rally, IMO.

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MatthewDixon

5h ago

#BTC continues to align with my primary Elliott Wave count, with a cycle low expected in Q4.
Short term, we may see one final push higher while the hidden bearish divergence remains intact, before price turns lower to complete the Y wave.
That would complete the corrective structure from the ATH and potentially set the stage for a powerful advance to new $BTC highs, with the wider #Crypto market following and a new #ALTSEASON beginning.

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MatthewDixon

6h ago

We are now on the second daily candle following the doji, suggesting that consolidation may support a little further upside in the short term.
#SOL appears to be forming a 3–3–5 flat correction from the June low. Once complete, potentially around $103–$109, I expect $SOL to turn lower again alongside the broader #Crypto market.
Short-term strength, but the wider corrective structure remains incomplete.

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MatthewDixon

6h ago

⚠️ Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ 66/100 STORM WARNING
Risk remains elevated.
Higher Treasury yields, geopolitical and trade tensions, and oil-driven inflation risks outweigh calmer volatility and Bitcoin’s rebound.
The PSI measures the environment not the next candle.
Navigate risk. Protect capital. Find opportunity.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Markets #Macro

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MatthewDixon

08-23 12:36

The Perfect Storm Index™ continues to signal an elevated risk environment.
Macro pressures remain finely balanced, with oil, the US dollar and broader risk sentiment keeping markets vulnerable to renewed volatility.
This is not a prediction, it is a measure of risk. Capital preservation and disciplined positioning remain essential.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro

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MatthewDixon

08-22 08:24

We need to wait for the final daily candle to close before drawing firm conclusions. Right now, it resembles a potential doji, signalling market indecision for #SOL.
That perfectly reflects the current setup, with opposing Elliott Wave counts carrying almost equal probability.
When the market is undecided, we should remain flexible. Managing risk is key.

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MatthewDixon

08-22 08:13

#OIL keeps me on alert. The chart increasingly suggests higher prices may lie ahead, potentially signalling a further escalation in geopolitical risk.
The knock-on effects of another oil surge would be inflationary, restrictive for monetary policy and negative for risk assets, including #Crypto and #BTC.

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MatthewDixon

08-22 07:39

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ remains firmly in the HIGH-RISK zone.
Tight liquidity, a firming DXY and elevated yields continue to create an unfavourable backdrop for risk assets, while subdued volatility and complacent sentiment leave markets vulnerable to a sharper move.
PSI does not predict the future, it measures the prevailing risk environment. For now, caution and disciplined risk management remain essential imo.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #RiskManagement

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MatthewDixon

08-21 22:59

I asked Ai, if it were to construct the most evil person, what characteristics would it program in?
This was its answer,
Does it remind you of anybody we all know?
An evil person, whether real or made by artificial intelligence, shows a lack of care for others. They use people for their own gain. They break rules and hurt others without feeling bad about it.
Core Traits
•No empathy: They do not care how others feel or if they suffer.
•Extreme selfishness: They put their own wants above all else.
•Lying a lot: They use deceit to trick and control people.
•No guilt: They never feel sorry for th

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MatthewDixon

08-21 12:30

Here is a clear example of an extremely aggressive advance, similar to what we are currently seeing across #BTC and #Crypto.
Yet price subsequently reversed sharply from the ATH.
Momentum alone does not prove that a move will continue. We must assess the broader structure and weigh all the available evidence.
In this case, $BTC peaked at a precise Fibonacci extension while displaying clear bearish RSI divergence.
Aggressive price action can still occur within a corrective move. Context is everything.

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MatthewDixon

08-21 10:48

Is the #ADA advance impulsive?
Potentially yes, but it is not yet a clean, confirmed impulse.
From the June low, the advance contains considerable overlap, which makes the broader structure look more like a developing leading diagonal or a corrective base than a textbook five-wave impulse. However, the latest leg from the August pullback is sharp, has broken above the preceding swing high near $0.20, and is supported by RSI above 70 i.e. credible impulsive characteristics.
I would look for a strong daily close above approximately $0.21–$0.22.
A controlled three-wave pullback holding roughly $0

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MatthewDixon

08-21 09:57

The Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated today, signalling that the wider risk environment still warrants caution.
Although selected assets are attempting to recover, liquidity, macro uncertainty and technical structure continue to favour disciplined risk management over aggressive positioning.
PSI does not predict the market, it measures the conditions surrounding it.
Cash is a position. Patience is a strategy.
#PerfectStormIndex #PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets

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MatthewDixon

08-21 09:33

Why is almost everyone ignoring the 28% rise in #OIL over the past month?
Oil is not merely another chart. A sustained increase can revive inflation pressure, restrict central-bank flexibility and tighten financial conditions, potentially creating a significant headwind for risk assets.
This is precisely why oil forms part of the Perfect Storm Index™.
#Macro #Bitcoin #Crypto

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MatthewDixon

08-20 09:16

#ETH is potentially developing an interesting Hidden Bearish Divergence but it is too early to call it confirmed.
Price is currently testing the previous high while RSI has already pushed significantly higher into overbought territory.
For a genuine signal, I want to see price fail to exceed the previous swing high and begin to reject from this area, ideally accompanied by confirming candle structure and weakening momentum.
If that happens, the combination of a lower price high + higher RSI high would confirm Hidden Bearish Divergence and add weight to the case that this remains a corrective r

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MatthewDixon

08-20 08:58

#SOL is providing some of the clearest evidence, IMO, that the current move higher is corrective rather than the start of a new bullish impulse.
The key is overlap.
The internal structure does not support a clean 5-wave impulsive advance, so I currently favour a 3-wave corrective interpretation.
The strength of this latest move doesn't change that, as C waves can be extremely powerful and impulsive in appearance.
RSI is also now stretched into overbought territory as price approaches the upper Fibonacci targets.
If this interpretation is correct, once the correction completes I would expect an

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MatthewDixon

08-20 08:46

#BTC has now reached the minimum target for the c wave of the larger B-wave correction.
But reaching a target does not mean the move has to end here.
C waves can be aggressive and often extend potentially towards the 1.382 or 1.618 extensions shown on the chart.
With RSI now stretched, I’ll be watching momentum, divergence and the developing lower-timeframe wave structure closely for evidence that c is completing.
For now, my primary thesis remains unchanged:
Corrective rally higher → completion of B → larger C wave lower, with Q4 remaining my preferred window for the broader cyclical low.
Tar

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MatthewDixon

08-20 07:14

#LTC continues to track our proposed wave count remarkably well.
Price is now accelerating higher from the proposed b-wave low, with the next Fibonacci levels providing a roadmap towards the potential c/B-wave termination zone.
But context matters.
I still view this as a corrective rally within a larger decline, not the beginning of a new impulsive bull trend.
If the structure continues to play out, I expect this recovery ultimately to give way to renewed downside into Q4, potentially completing the broader cyclical correction.
Trade the structure, not the narrative. #Crypto

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