MatthewDixon

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Yesterday I explored the possibility of an impulsive count for #BTC, but after reviewing the evidence I don't believe it fits as well as the corrective interpretation from the all-time high.
My preferred count still calls for one more leg lower before the larger bull market resumes.
If correct, that should set the stage for a powerful advance to new all-time highs in 2027.
Elliott Wave isn't about certainty, it's about assigning probabilities and adapting as new information emerges.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ElliottWave #Trading #PerfectStormIndex™
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PERFECT STORM Index™
31 July 2026
Today's Reading: 76/100 🟠
Yesterday: 76 → Today: 76 (No Change)
The macro backdrop remains finely balanced. Sticky inflation, restrictive monetary policy and tight liquidity continue to limit risk appetite, while a firm US dollar keeps financial conditions relatively restrictive.
Key drivers:
• 📉 Liquidity: Constrained
• 💵 DXY: Firm
• 🌊 Elliott Wave: Corrective structure suggests caution
• 😐 Sentiment: Neutral to complacent
• 🛢️ Oil: Neutral
A 76 doesn't predict an imminent decline, it simply indicates that market conditions continue to warrant disciplin
BTC1.95%
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I present here a VALID alternative #BTC count (in black) that has a 5 wave impulse down from the ATH with the 3rd wave 2.618 X 1st wave. (thats pretty convincing)
Either way, whether corrective OR impulsive down, we should expect lower as 5th wave or C wave of Y section of WXY
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Perfect Storm Index™: 76/100 🔴
Bitcoin continues to consolidate, but the macro backdrop remains challenging.
The biggest uncertainty isn't today's price action, it's whether the Fed can return inflation sustainably to target without triggering a sharper economic slowdown.
Markets are pricing hope. The data still demands caution IMO
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #FOMC #Inflation #FED
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Perfect Storm Index™ | 30 July 2026
🔴 Today's Reading: 76/100 (Unchanged)
The macro backdrop remains challenging.
• 📉 Liquidity remains constrained
• 💵 A firm USD continues to pressure risk assets
• 🌊 Elliott Wave structure still favours caution
• 😨 Sentiment hasn't reached true capitulation
• 🛢 Oil is stabilising, but not yet a decisive tailwind
Markets don't need bad news to fall—they simply need conditions to remain fragile.
Protect capital. Stay patient. Wait for probabilities to improve IMO
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #Trading #Investing #RiskManagement
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GateUser-fef5a0e1:
The bull market is at its peak 🐂
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,153.18 points lower, or 2.19%, at 51,594.14 for its worst decline since April 2025. The S&P 500 slid 1.52% to end the day at 7,316.15. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% to 24,442.94, and crossed into correction territory.
Could this be the beginning of the leg down towards a potential Q4 low in markets, #Crypto etc
Nasdaq is highly correlated with #BTC
US300.59%
US5000.44%
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Could this be the beginning of the leg down towards a potential Q4 low in markets, #Btc #Crypto etc
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I spend my time looking for what's hidden, not what's obvious. That's often where the edge lies.
AI may become the defining technology of our generation. But the biggest uncertainty isn't the technology itself, it's how nations compete for dominance.
Innovation creates opportunity. Geopolitics creates risk.
The next decade could reshape markets, economies and global power in ways few investors fully appreciate.
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I see the advance in $OIL as 5 waves (with wave 3 = 1.618 X wave 1) common with commodities!
This should be followed by a 3 wave correction before higher again ( marrying with my earlier analysis)
The 3 waves may me complete or still ongoing.
The following #OIL high should be substantial, driven by further geopolitical unrest and should HIT risk assets #BTC #Crypto etc
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Perfect Storm Index™
🚨 Today's Reading: 76/100 🔴
Risk conditions have deteriorated further.
The increase from 68 → 76 reflects a broadening of macro headwinds rather than any single event:
📉 Dollar strength continues to tighten global financial conditions.
🌍 Geopolitical tensions have pushed investors towards safe-haven assets.
📊 Market breadth has weakened as fewer stocks participate in rallies.
🌊 Elliott Wave structure still favours a corrective phase.
😐 Sentiment remains complacent despite rising risks.
A reading of 76 doesn't guarantee a market decline—it simply suggests that the pr
BTC-1.10%
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The CLARITY Act could prove to be a watershed moment for digital assets.
Greater regulatory clarity has the potential to unlock institutional participation, encourage innovation and strengthen confidence in the U.S. crypto market over the long term.
But investors should remember:
Good regulation doesn't eliminate macro risk.
Liquidity, the US dollar, credit conditions and market sentiment still drive markets.
That's why the Perfect Storm Index™ remains at 68/100 (Storm Warning) despite this positive structural development.
Successful investing means weighing all the evidence—not just the headl
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DXY Update
The US Dollar Index continues to edge higher as markets adopt a more cautious, risk-off stance.
Our preferred scenario still targets the 100% Fibonacci extension around 102.7. A decisive break above that level would strengthen the case that the dollar's advance is evolving into a larger impulsive move rather than simply completing a corrective rally.
Historically, periods of sustained dollar strength have coincided with capital rotating into safe-haven assets, creating headwinds for equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies.
With the Perfect Storm Index™ currently reading 68/100 (S
USIDX0.23%
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One of the biggest misconceptions in technical analysis is that a price target is a prediction.
It isn't.
A target is simply the outcome of weighing probabilities based on the evidence available at the time.
Markets are dynamic. New information changes those probabilities, and trends rarely move in straight lines. Even when the primary target remains valid, counter-trend rallies and pullbacks are a normal part of market structure.
Good analysts don't predict the future, they continually reassess probabilities as the evidence evolves.
Think in probabilities, not certainties. That's how professi
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Perfect Storm Index™ | 28 July 2026
Today's Reading: 68/100 🟠
Market Pressure: Storm Warning
The macro backdrop remains challenging. While conditions have eased marginally from yesterday, the balance of evidence continues to favour a cautious approach to risk assets.
Key drivers:
• 📉 Liquidity remains constrained
• 💵 DXY remains firm
• 🌊 Elliott Wave suggests the broader corrective structure is still intact
• 😨 Sentiment remains more complacent than fundamentals justify
• 🌍 Geopolitical risks continue to elevate uncertainty
The Perfect Storm Index™ doesn't predict markets—it measures the
BTC-1.10%
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How is the Perfect Storm Index™ constructed?
The PSI isn't based on a single indicator.
It combines multiple independent macro, market and behavioural factors into one weighted risk score:
✅ Global Liquidity
✅ DXY
✅ US Treasury Yields
✅ Credit Spreads
✅ VIX
✅ Oil
✅ Gold
✅ Bitcoin Dominance
✅ Fear & Greed Index
✅ Funding Rates
✅ Put/Call Ratio
✅ AAII Sentiment
✅ PMI / ISM Data
✅ Inflation Expectations
✅ Key Macroeconomic Releases
✅ Geopolitical Events
✅ Elliott Wave Structure
Each factor is calculated from objective data inputs, weighted according to its influence on market conditions, and comb
PSI2.75%
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Could the current B wave head higher? Certainly.
But the burden of proof remains with the bulls.
The prevailing trend is still down until proven otherwise, while the Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated at 68/100, suggesting the macro backdrop continues to favour caution.
One Number. Multiple Market Signals.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #PerfectStormIndex
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Rajukhan75:
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Markets don't usually turn because of one indicator.
They turn when multiple independent signals begin pointing in the same direction.
Today's Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated at 68/100 🔴.
While conditions have improved slightly, the overall macro environment continues to favour caution over complacency.
One Number. Multiple Market Signals.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro #PerfectStormIndex
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Bitcoin continues to respect the roadmap.
Price remains below key resistance while the broader corrective structure is still intact.
A Perfect Storm Index™ reading of 68/100 suggests the macro backdrop remains unfavourable for risk assets, even after this week's modest improvement.
Until price proves otherwise, I continue to favour caution over complacency.
One Number. Multiple Market Signals.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Macro #PerfectStormIndex
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Everyone remembers how far $ICP fell.
Very few are asking what it has been building ever since.
The market eventually stops pricing the past and starts pricing the future.
That's the question worth asking imo
#ICP #Crypto
ICP-0.72%
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