MatthewDixon

December hike odds are high because inflation is still above target, the economy is holding up, and two Fed voters already wanted to hike in October. The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, but Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point increase. September PCE inflation was 3.6% year over year, with core at 3.1%. Meanwhile, October payrolls rose 165,000, unemployment held near 4.1%, and third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. That combination gives the Fed room to prioritize inflation.

IF we had A higher for #BTC then its very possible that the B wave will take this form before we get C higher (above the top of A)

#BTC may already have completed five waves up into the September high. If so, that rise could be wave A or wave 1.
The shaded decline still looks corrective to me. Once it’s complete, I’d look for wave C or wave 3 higher. For now, I’m watching for price to confirm a low.

#BTC alternate count: Wave 4 may still be unfolding as a W–X–Y correction. That leaves room for a move toward $72k before a potential wave 5 higher. A break below $67k would invalidate the impulse count as drawn.

#BTC’s correction has extended, but the overlapping decline still supports my preferred corrective interpretation.
Another leg higher remains my base case, although the low is unconfirmed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k–$80k would strengthen that view. Further weakness would require reassessment.

#OIL could face further downside if diplomacy reduces the risk of renewed US–Iran escalation.
Lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns and support #BTC and #Crypto sentiment in the short term.
A market interpretation, with geopolitical risks still unresolved.

#BTC has bounced as anticipated from the potential correction low, supported by hidden bullish RSI divergence across two sets of lows.
An encouraging reaction. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k would strengthen the case that the correction is complete and another leg higher is underway.

#BTC’s shaded correction may be nearing completion. Hidden bullish RSI divergence keeps another leg higher in play.
I’m leaning bullish here, but confirmation is still needed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k would strengthen the case. Risk management remains key.

#BTC’s shaded decline still looks corrective, keeping another leg higher in play.
Hidden bullish RSI divergence supports that possibility, but price confirmation is needed. A sustained reclaim of $79.2k would strengthen the case that the correction is complete.

$BTC reclaiming the dotted resistance near $79.2k would increase my confidence that the correction is complete and another leg higher is underway.
Hidden bullish RSI divergence supports this scenario. Now looking for price confirmation.
If correct, higher #BTC should support #Crypto generally

#ICP: A potential bearish barrier triangle deserves attention, with wave E possibly complete.
If this count is correct, a decisive break below support near $1.97 could trigger a sharp downward thrust and fresh lows.
A recovery above E near $3.60 would challenge this interpretation. A risk scenario, pending confirmation.

#ICP: One scenario I’m watching is a larger ABC recovery, with wave B potentially nearing completion.
The higher price low against a lower RSI low creates hidden bullish divergence, supporting a possible C-wave advance if market confidence stabilises.
A bullish reversal and a break above recent lower highs would strengthen this case. Below $1.74, this particular count is invalidated.

#BTC’s wave 4 interpretation remains compelling, with price returning to the territory of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree, a useful Elliott Wave guideline.
This supports the corrective scenario and a potential fifth wave higher. A reversal and break above recent lower highs would strengthen the case.

#OIL pushing higher again, adding another potential headwind for #BTC and #Crypto.
Sustained strength in energy prices risks keeping #inflation elevated and delaying monetary easing, weighing on risk appetite.
One pressure among several, rather than a direct explanation for every crypto dip.

#BTC’s latest dip remains consistent with my preferred wave 4 count, potentially completing a W–X–Y correction.
Hidden bullish RSI divergence and a developing reversal candle support the possibility of wave 5 higher towards $90–92k.
A break above the recent lower highs would strengthen that case. The daily candle still needs to close.

#JASMY: Alongside the bearish scenario posted earlier, this is my preferred alternative: wave B nearing completion before a wave C rally completes a larger ABC correction.
A dip below $0.00354 would invalidate the nested bullish count, but could still fit this broader scenario.
A bullish reversal is needed to support it.

#BTC: My preferred count remains a wave 4 correction before wave 5 higher towards $90–92k.
One more dip towards $77–78k is possible. Reclaiming $84–85k would strengthen the bullish case.
The Fed’s hawkish hold adds a headwind. Structure first, confirmation next.

One more small leg down for #BTC before the next impulse higher?
That remains my preferred scenario, following the red arrow. A potential bullish divergence is developing, but confirmation is still needed.