MatthewDixon

An interesting setup developing in #HYPE.
The decline from the $78 high can be counted as an A -B-C correction, potentially completing around the recent $51–52 low.
If that low holds, we may now be in the early stages of another 5-wave impulse higher.
That would align very well with my expectation that #BTC still has scope to complete its current B-wave higher before the larger corrective structure resumes.
Confirmation first — but certainly one to watch.
#Hyperliquid #Crypto #ElliottWave

The current #Bitcoin B wave can itself subdivide into an a-b-c correction, as shown here.
The slow, overlapping and frustrating sideways price action is very typical of a corrective B wave.
If this count is correct, once B completes we should see a very different character of price action, a more aggressive 5-wave C wave decline.
That could complete the entire W-X-Y correction from the $BTC ATH, with my broader timing still pointing towards Q4.
The important distinction: the B-wave can continue to frustrate in the short term. It is the character of the move that follows which should provide co

An interesting battle is developing around #Bitcoin.
TAILWINDS:
↓ DXY
↓ Treasury yields
↓ Expectations for further Fed tightening
HEADWINDS:
↑ Oil / inflation risk
↑ Geopolitical uncertainty
↓ ETF demand
⚠️ Vulnerable technical structure
This may explain why #BTC is refusing to break decisively either way.
My PSI remains elevated at 68/100, yet that does NOT mean Bitcoin has to fall immediately.
In fact, improving liquidity conditions could help drive the current B-wave higher towards 70–71k.
The bigger question is what happens afterwards.
If macro risk remains elevated and price then turns im

An important point about my #Bitcoin bearish scenario:
The next decline may actually complete the correction.
IF #BTC completes the current B-wave higher, followed by a final impulsive decline, we could have the basis for a completed W-X-Y correction all the way from the ATH.
That changes the significance of the next major low.
I'm bearish on the current structure, not permanently bearish on Bitcoin.
If Y completes as anticipated, I'll be watching very closely for evidence that the entire correction is over and potentially a major longer-term opportunity.
First things first: let's see whether

I’m standing aside from this lacklustre market but still observing closely.
#ETH has responded well to a couple of RSI divergence signals, with the latest being bearish.
Even so, that isn't enough to tempt me into a trade.
Long, slow consolidations like this can eventually produce fast and potentially violent breakouts in either direction.
One of the most important lessons I’ve learned over 40+ years in markets:
You don't always need to have a position.
Sometimes the best trade is simply to wait, observe and be ready when the market finally shows its hand.
#Ethereum #Crypto #Trading

#SPX price has pushed to fresh all-time highs.
Momentum has not.
Daily RSI is showing clear bearish divergence as the index tests new records.
This does not mean the top is in. Divergence is a warning, not a sell signal, and price remains key.
But put it alongside:
• Perfect Storm Index™ at 63/100
• Elevated geopolitical/energy risk
• Restrictive bond yields
• Increasing signs of stress beneath otherwise calm markets
After such a powerful bull run, I would now be watching closely for price confirmation of the momentum warning.
Risk often becomes visible before the trend finally turns.
#SP500 #

Perfect Storm Index™ — 15 Aug 2026
Today’s PSI: 63/100 🟠
Yesterday: 60
Change: +3
Risk continues to build beneath relatively calm markets.
🔴 Geopolitical tensions remain elevated
🔴 Oil holding above $82
⚠️ Treasury yields remain restrictive
⚠️ #BTC structure remains corrective
⚠️ Broader risk appetite is weakening
🟢 Softer USD/Fed expectations provide some offset
The important development isn't any single indicator.
It's the increasing alignment of independent risk factors.
At 63/100, PSI is not saying a storm is inevitable. It is telling us that the conditions capable of producing one are

At times like this when the market appears to be treading water, I look for what I call "special situations"
And TAO is one crypto I regard as a special situation.
Why?
Bittensor sits at the intersection of two potentially transformative technologies: AI + blockchain.
TAO also has a Bitcoin like maximum supply of 21 million, with a halving based issuance schedule.
Now look at the chart.
The advance from the February low appears to have formed a remarkably clean 5-wave impulsive structure before the subsequent correction.
That matters.
If the count is correct, those five waves could represent t

Multiple signals suggest #BTCXAU may not yet have found its final low, aligning well with our broader risk outlook.
The rally from the February low appears corrective, and its May high was accompanied by powerful bearish RSI divergence.
Since then, the ratio has rolled over again.
RSI is now entering oversold territory, but there remains room for a deeper momentum extreme before we can confidently identify exhaustion.
Why does #BTCXAU matter?
Because it measures #Bitcoin not against fiat, but against another monetary asset, Gold.
BTC continuing to lose ground against Gold while the Perfect Sto

As regular followers will know, I use #USDJPY as an important proxy for global risk conditions.
I’m watching the shaded area closely.
The key question is whether the recovery from the recent USDJPY low is merely corrective.
If it is, and #USDJPY resumes its decline, meaning further Yen appreciation against the Dollar and that could signal another tightening in global risk conditions.
That would fit with:
• Perfect Storm Index™ at 60/100
• #BTC remaining in a corrective structure
• Elevated geopolitical/energy risk
• Growing signs of vulnerability across risk assets
A renewed Yen surge would th

As regular followers will know, I use #USDJPY as an important proxy for global risk conditions.
I’m watching the shaded area closely.
The key question is whether the recovery from the recent USDJPY low is merely corrective.
If it is, and #USDJPY resumes its decline, meaning further Yen appreciation against the Dollar and that could signal another tightening in global risk conditions.
That would fit with:
• Perfect Storm Index™ at 60/100
• #BTC remaining in a corrective structure
• Elevated geopolitical/energy risk
• Growing signs of vulnerability across risk assets
A renewed Yen surge would th

The previous move higher in #ETH was signalled ahead of time by the bullish RSI divergence shown on the chart.
Interestingly, we are seeing mild bullish divergence developing again now.
That leaves room, IMO, for $ETH to drift somewhat higher and complete the current corrective phase before another impulsive move lower towards our proposed Q4 low.
The wider environment also matters.
Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 60/100, indicating that market risk remains elevated despite relatively subdued volatility.
Technical structure tells us what may be developing.
PSI tells us whether the wider risk e

Something interesting is developing across markets.
My Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated at 58/100.
#BTC remains in what I believe is a corrective structure.
#SPX is making new highs while weekly RSI is showing clear bearish divergence.
Meanwhile, inflation/Fed conditions are improving, but yields, oil and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
None of this tells us precisely when markets turn.
But that isn't the point.
After 40+ years in markets, I've learned that the greatest risks often emerge when several seemingly unrelated signals begin pointing in the same direction.
Now add the long-t

Clear bearish RSI divergence is now visible at the recent high on #SPX.
The Elliott Wave structure also raises the possibility that this long-running impulsive advance is approaching completion.
But divergence is a warning, not a sell signal.
I would still want to see a clear reversal in price structure and trend before drawing any tradable conclusions.
Evidence first. Prediction second.
#SP500 #Markets #ElliottWave

The B and Y labels are intended to show directional movement, not precise $BTC price targets.
My base case is that the B wave may have a little further to run before a final 5-wave decline completes the larger Y wave.
The precise levels are less important than the structure.
If that correction completes alongside an improvement in the geopolitical and macroeconomic risk environment, reflected by a falling Perfect Storm Index™, the conditions could then be in place for a powerful recovery towards new #BTC all-time highs.
Probabilities, not certainties. Structure first, targets second.
#Bitcoin

The B and Y labels are intended to show directional movement, not precise $BTC price targets.
My base case is that the B wave may have a little further to run before a final 5-wave decline completes the larger Y wave.
The precise levels are less important than the structure.
If that correction completes alongside an improvement in the geopolitical and macroeconomic risk environment, reflected by a falling Perfect Storm Index™, the conditions could then be in place for a powerful recovery towards new #BTC all-time highs.
Probabilities, not certainties. Structure first, targets second.
#Bitcoin

Perfect Storm Index™ 13 Aug 2026
Today’s PSI: 58/100 🟠
Risk Environment: Elevated
Bias: Risk-Off / Cautious
Risk has eased fractionally from yesterday’s 59, but the backdrop remains uncomfortable.
✅ VIX and credit stress remain subdued
✅ Inflation/Fed pressure has improved slightly
⚠️ US yields remain elevated
⚠️ Oil and geopolitical risk remain firm
⚠️ #Bitcoin trend and Elliott Wave structure still favour caution
The key point: we are not in a full “Perfect Storm”, but conditions remain vulnerable to deterioration.
A simultaneous rise in DXY, yields, oil and volatility would push PSI quick

Looking at the last two #BTC halving cycles, something interesting stands out.
#Bitcoin recorded a major cycle low:
• 513 days before the 2020 halving
• 516 days before the 2024 halving
Just a 3-day variation.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 2028.
If, and it's a big IF, that timing relationship persists, a comparable cycle low would fall around November 2026.
Interestingly, that aligns closely with my existing Elliott Wave work pointing towards a potential Q4 2026 low.
Two observations don't make a statistical law, but when independent methods begin pointing towards the same