MatthewDixon

An important level to watch for bitcoin:native.
A break below the dotted line at approximately $76,300 would suggest that the fifth wave is complete and that a much deeper decline may be beginning.
If support holds, however, the latest high may represent only wave 1 of the final fifth wave, leaving waves 2, 3, 4 and 5 still to unfold higher.
Two valid scenarios but price will provide the confirmation. #Bitcoin #ElliottWave #Crypto

I’m keeping a close eye on #OIL, which remains the primary macro risk driver and carries obvious #Inflation implications.
Interestingly, rate-hike expectations have moderated slightly despite oil’s continued strength.
For now, market risk remains elevated but it has yet to translate into a meaningful volatility breakout. Complacency remains the key vulnerability imo

internet-computer:native has defended its year-long support near $2 once again and this bounce now looks meaningful.
The move appears primarily technical: repeated support, steady accumulation and a decisive push through the $2.50–$2.80 resistance zone.
#ICP is also showing relative strength while Bitcoin remains subdued, perhaps helped by renewed interest in its on-chain infrastructure and AI ecosystem.
RSI is now stretched, so some consolidation would be healthy but the market has again demonstrated that the long-term support zone matters.

Oil continues to rise, as we anticipated, adding another layer of pressure to the macro picture.
Iran are reportedly organising for a major push back against the US!
If crude breaks decisively above the $92–$96 resistance zone, renewed inflation concerns could push yields higher and delay monetary easing.
That may yet provide the catalyst for the final wave lower across risk assets, including Bitcoin, before a more durable bottom forms.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro

Oil continues to rise, as we anticipated, adding another layer of pressure to the macro picture.
If crude breaks decisively above the $92–$96 resistance zone, renewed inflation concerns could push yields higher and delay monetary easing.
That may yet provide the catalyst for the final wave lower across risk assets, including Bitcoin, before a more durable bottom forms.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Oil #Macro

The decline in #OIL reflected easing geopolitical tensions, helping to create the risk-on conditions that supported the anticipated #BTC and broader #Crypto rally.
This may represent the final fifth wave higher within wave C of the larger ABC correction.

Could this be a credible short-term five-wave count to end the #BTC C wave and terminate the correction higher? The sharp rejection from the proposed wave 5 strengthens the case that the impulse completed near $82.1k–$82.2k.
A few points:
3.618 is a NOT Fibonacci-derived extension and but commonly observed in highly extended crypto third waves. Wave 3 terminating around $81.35k is therefore reasonable.
Wave 4 appears relatively shallow and does not overlap wave 1 territory.
Wave 5 reaches approximately the 4.236 extension near $82.15k, producing a sensible terminal relationship after the exte

⚠️ THE PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 71/100
Yesterday: 73
Today: 71
Risk Level: ELEVATED
Market stress has eased modestly as volatility retreats and risk assets rally.
However, high Treasury yields, oil and geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven demand for gold and increasing leverage behind Bitcoin’s advance keep the broader environment fragile.
The immediate pressure has softened but the storm has not passed according to the data imo
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #PSI

That’s the power of Elliott Wave when combined with comprehensive technical analysis.
#BTC is breaking higher in line with our primary scenario. The anticipated fifth-wave advance now appears to be unfolding but this remains a directional roadmap, not a precise price prediction.

#ETH continues to mirror #BTC, with both largely driven by macro forces.
The current correction reflects uncertainty and consolidation ahead of what may be a relatively modest wave 5 higher.
Given the limited upside versus downside risk, this is not a move I consider worth trading. IMO.

Perfect Storm Index™ 3 September 2026
73 / 100
ELEVATED RISK
Yesterday: 74 | ↓ 1 point
Risk conditions have improved only marginally:
Oil: Brent remains near $95, sustaining inflation pressure.
Bond yields: US 10-year yield remains exceptionally high near 4.77%, despite easing slightly today.
Geopolitics: Renewed US–Iran hostilities keep energy and supply risks elevated.
Markets: Global equities and Bitcoin have stabilised, providing modest relief.
Crypto: BTC is holding near $78,000, but the broader structure remains fragile.
Volatility: VIX remains relatively contained, limiting the case for

#BTC may have completed the proposed wave 4 correction, with wave 5 higher now potentially underway.
If correct, this remains part of a larger ABC correction higher, with an aggressive final C-wave advance approaching termination before the broader downtrend resumes.
Caution remains warranted as price approaches the projected target zone.

On the 4-hour #BTC chart, the small wave 4 correction may be nearing completion within the typical territory of wave 4 of one lesser degree.
If support holds, BTC could soon begin the final wave 5 higher of wave C, potentially completing the broader ABC correction around $82,000–$84,000.
Once that structure is complete, the risk of a sharp reversal lower would increase substantially. A sustained break below current support would invalidate this immediate wave-5 setup.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 74/100, up 3 points from yesterday’s 71.
The rise reflects:
Brent oil around $95–97
US 10-year yield near 4.81%
DXY strengthening toward 99.73
Renewed US/Iran escalation
Weaker global equities and tighter financial conditions
The increase is limited to three points because VIX remains relatively contained at 16.34, credit markets are not yet signalling acute stress, and crypto sentiment remains in greed territory at 63.