MatthewDixon

#BTC is showing short term Hidden Bullish Divergence on the 4hr chart and longer term Bearish Divergence on the Weekly chart.
So short term we have slightly bullish expectations but longer term the Bear Flag should prevail and take $BTC lower

Hidden Bullish Divergence on the 4 hour hints at higher still for #BTC

After a LONG period of consolidation it looks as though #LTC is ready to break lower.
I do not see how this Bear Flag could be seen as constructive.
But, IF we do see lower $LTC and other #Crypto then it should offer some great bargain basement buy opportunities

Looking like the $BTC decline has begun and therefore more likely it was an ABC correction higher.
If so then this will be a painful decline unless you are flat or short the market. Personally im just flat #BTC & #Crypto apart from a couple of long term HODL punts

Im looking at what I think is the final 5th wave of the 5th wave up in the #SPX cycle before a sizeable decline.
The 3rd wave is a satisfying 2.618 X wave 1 and there is Divergence on the larger weekly timeframe.
We need to focus on shorter timeframe to better estimate the top

In the midst of a wave 4 correction within a final C wave down for #XRP
Wave 4 (nice wave 2/4 alternation) should stay above dotted line (wave 1) before going sharply higher for $XRP in potential blow off top later this year.
This should correlate with most of #Crypto #BTC etc.

From the local high of $BTC 82,833 we have 5 waves down which is EITHER wave 1 OR wave A
So the movement down is either just an ABC correction to around the 78k level OR it's the beginning of an impulse down for #BTC which would head much lower.
So either way, at least short term direction is down

#OIL is working through a consolidation triangle since the recent geopolitically driven spike to $OIL 120
Triangles are pre-terminal waves and so this should precede a sharp spike higher to a new high - meaning another nasty surprise to come which would hammer #BTC & #Crypto

#GOLD is trending within a parallel Bear Flag channel since Jan this year and the most likely scenario is to stay within the channel for the moment with perhaps one more test above and one below before likely turning longer term Bullish again.

I am still concerned about this Bear Flag formation on #BTC and most #Crypto for that matter.
My base case was that $BTC drops to the 52k area to complete the correction but there is also about 50/50 odds that we rise.
Im am therefore out of the market still and this is the discipline of a trader - that sometimes not trading is the right way to preserve capital

Some say $ICP is a Ghost but data does not agree!
#ICP still has active core development by @dfinity Foundation
ongoing grants and ecosystem funding fully on-chain apps and hosting capabilities
A technically unique architecture (canisters, reverse gas model, web-speed smart contracts)
Active governance through the Network Nervous System (NNS)
Technically, ICP is one of the more ambitious Layer 1 designs:
smart contracts can directly serve web content
apps can run entirely on-chain
#Bitcoin integration without bridges exists
AI + on-chain compute narratives fit ICP better than many chains
The

According to Ai, up to 70% of #Crypto chains are DEAD
That means that a massive number of Hodlers will NEVER see their money back.
Unlike companies that officially bankrupt and close, crypto can hang on as a Ghost chain as long as holders remain.
Fact is when you have lost 99% of your value there is no point cashing in, and people prefer to hold, on the off chance of a miraculous revival.
Does anybody hold on to a potential Ghost chain?
what are good candidates?
EOS — probably the prime example imo.
They raised $4+ billion (largest ICO ever)
Marketed as an “Ethereum killer”
Huge early hype and

'FIB B' being exactly 4.236 X 'FIB A' gives me great confidence that 3rd wave complete & we have witnessed a recent ABC correction & now embarking on 5th wave higher to a new #BTC ATH
Also the 4th wave entered the territory of the previous wave 4 of lesser degree an EW guideline

We are bang on #BTC resistance right now and so a pullback of some sort is very possible from here.

Bear in mind, #BTC is not showing any Divergence and so its unlikely the top is in yet and we should have another ATH coming as Geopolitical tensions decline and monetary policy eases = excess liquidity to PUMP $BTC $Crypto #ALTs
Also RSI is mid channel & EW count looks like wave 4 correction complete with 5th of 5th to come

I asked Claude Ai - "what are the chances of a 2008 style market crash this year?"
It said, that a Healthy correction is most likely.
#SPX pullback to ~6,200–6,500
i.e. -10% to -15%
Then continuation
Normal bull market behaviour with higher to go in this 5th wave.
On this basis likely #BTC higher also

To be transparent, I went short #BTC about 30 mins ago and ive now closed (in tiny profit) because the chart does look poised to go higher from here.
So I am staying out of the market now.
I see almost 50/50 chance of up or down and that's awful odds for trading

We have achieved the #BTC target, upper resistance line of the parallel channel.
This IS decision time for $BTC
We have 100% extension of the C in respect to A
We have Bearish Divergence on the Daily
We hit the upper resistance of parallel channel
And a likely complete corrective structure from low

As is so often the case, there is room for interpretation on #OIL where we have a technically valid 5 waves down
But alternatively it could just be ABC
Very different implications and this is reflected in #BTC and other risk assets that are right now at a crossroads.
Caution is necessary whichever way you choose to trade