MatthewDixon

⚠️ THE PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 71/100
Yesterday: 73
Today: 71
Risk Level: ELEVATED
Market stress has eased modestly as volatility retreats and risk assets rally.
However, high Treasury yields, oil and geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven demand for gold and increasing leverage behind Bitcoin’s advance keep the broader environment fragile.
The immediate pressure has softened but the storm has not passed according to the data imo
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #PSI

That’s the power of Elliott Wave when combined with comprehensive technical analysis.
#BTC is breaking higher in line with our primary scenario. The anticipated fifth-wave advance now appears to be unfolding but this remains a directional roadmap, not a precise price prediction.

#ETH continues to mirror #BTC, with both largely driven by macro forces.
The current correction reflects uncertainty and consolidation ahead of what may be a relatively modest wave 5 higher.
Given the limited upside versus downside risk, this is not a move I consider worth trading. IMO.

Perfect Storm Index™ 3 September 2026
73 / 100
ELEVATED RISK
Yesterday: 74 | ↓ 1 point
Risk conditions have improved only marginally:
Oil: Brent remains near $95, sustaining inflation pressure.
Bond yields: US 10-year yield remains exceptionally high near 4.77%, despite easing slightly today.
Geopolitics: Renewed US–Iran hostilities keep energy and supply risks elevated.
Markets: Global equities and Bitcoin have stabilised, providing modest relief.
Crypto: BTC is holding near $78,000, but the broader structure remains fragile.
Volatility: VIX remains relatively contained, limiting the case for

#BTC may have completed the proposed wave 4 correction, with wave 5 higher now potentially underway.
If correct, this remains part of a larger ABC correction higher, with an aggressive final C-wave advance approaching termination before the broader downtrend resumes.
Caution remains warranted as price approaches the projected target zone.

On the 4-hour #BTC chart, the small wave 4 correction may be nearing completion within the typical territory of wave 4 of one lesser degree.
If support holds, BTC could soon begin the final wave 5 higher of wave C, potentially completing the broader ABC correction around $82,000–$84,000.
Once that structure is complete, the risk of a sharp reversal lower would increase substantially. A sustained break below current support would invalidate this immediate wave-5 setup.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 74/100, up 3 points from yesterday’s 71.
The rise reflects:
Brent oil around $95–97
US 10-year yield near 4.81%
DXY strengthening toward 99.73
Renewed US/Iran escalation
Weaker global equities and tighter financial conditions
The increase is limited to three points because VIX remains relatively contained at 16.34, credit markets are not yet signalling acute stress, and crypto sentiment remains in greed territory at 63.

#ETH remains in lockstep with #BTC as markets await the next key data.
The sharp rally has reached major descending resistance, while RSI is easing from overbought levels. A decisive breakout would strengthen the bullish case but rejection here could signal that this is still a corrective advance.
Patience until the data provides direction.

#BTC is currently stalling around $78,000 after its sharp recovery from the June low.
The rally may still extend, but daily RSI remains elevated and price is approaching an important resistance zone around $80,000–$83,000.
For now, I continue to view this as a potential corrective B-wave rather than the beginning of a confirmed new bull trend. A sustained break above resistance would challenge that view; rejection would keep the risk of another significant leg lower firmly alive.
Patience here as confirmation matters more than prediction imo

#OIL has been an excellent proxy for market risk lately and that is no surprise, given its sensitivity to geopolitical tensions.
The concern is that persistently higher oil feeds into costs and inflation, keeping pressure on interest rates. With markets now pricing a significant chance of another Fed hike, this creates further headwinds for risk assets.
Higher oil → higher inflation → tighter policy → pressure on #BTC, #ETH and equities.

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 71/100
High Risk, up 2 points from yesterday’s 69.
Main pressures:
Brent oil above $91 amid renewed Gulf tensions.
US 10-year yield near 4.78%.
September Fed-hike probability around 65–66%.
Bitcoin struggling near $78,500.
The rise is contained because VIX remains low near 14.9 and high-yield credit spreads are still tight around 2.60%. Risk pressure is increasing, but markets are not yet showing disorderly stress.

Markets now price a 61.9% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.
Trump has called for sharply lower rates, but geopolitical tensions and oil above $90 are reviving inflation concerns.
Higher rates mean tighter liquidity and greater pressure on risk assets such as #Bitcoin.

#Bitcoin faces renewed pressure as Gulf conflict pushes oil above $90, reviving inflation fears and raising expectations of a September Fed rate hike.
Higher oil, elevated bond yields and tighter policy expectations drain liquidity from risk assets. Markets now price roughly a 58% probability of a September increase.
Russia’s new crypto framework and plans to permit #BTC, #ETH and #USDT as collateral is structurally significant.
But for near-term prices, #oil,#inflation and the #Fed matter more imo

⚠️ THE PERFECT STORM INDEX™ 69/100
Risk remains elevated but broadly unchanged.
Firm DXY and yields, tight liquidity, fragile crypto sentiment and bearish Elliott Wave risk continue to apply pressure. However, contained VIX and credit spreads and no fresh macro shock prevent a further rise.
Caution remains warranted. Cash is a position.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #PSI

#ETH hidden bearish divergence is a warning, not a sell signal on its own.
However, when combined with:
• A broader sequence of lower highs and lower lows
• RSI recently reaching overbought territory
• An Elliott Wave structure suggesting further downside
• An elevated Perfect Storm Index™
…I believe caution is firmly warranted here.
Confirmation must still come from price. #Ethereum #Crypto

We may have completed 5 waves down on #DXY
OR, we may have a 5th wave down still to come!
However, a rising DXY is not automatically bearish for #Bitcoin, nor is a falling #Dollar automatically bullish. The reasons matter.
A dollar rising on tight liquidity, higher real yields or safe-haven demand is generally negative for BTC.
A dollar falling because of monetary easing and expanding liquidity is generally positive.
But if DXY falls because of a US-led crisis, or rises alongside strong global growth then the usual inverse relationship may weaken.
Context matters more than direction.

#XRP, the chart has become substantially more constructive, but I would call it a potential major bottom rather than a confirmed new bull trend.
The bullish case is credible:
The decline from roughly $3.65 can be counted as a completed A–B–C correction.
Wave C reached the major $0.94–$1.00 support zone, close to the previous breakout area.
The forceful weekly reversal and RSI recovery from around oversold territory suggest capitulation and genuine demand.
Holding above approximately $1.20–$1.30, followed by a break above $1.70, would strengthen the bottoming case materially.
A subsequent recov

Today’s Perfect Storm Index™ is 67/100
Storm Warning, up 3 points from yesterday’s confirmed 64.
The increase reflects hawkish Fed repricing, rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and renewed pressure across equities and crypto. Volatility and credit conditions remain orderly, preventing a more severe escalation - for now