MatthewDixon

The improving Perfect Storm Index™ over recent days is being validated by the gradual recovery in risk assets, including #BTC and #Crypto.
This aligns with my preferred Elliott Wave count, a corrective B-wave recovery remains underway.
The next phase could become particularly interesting.
If #BTC continues higher while momentum begins to weaken, bearish RSI divergence could develop, providing additional evidence that the B wave is approaching completion and the larger C wave lower is getting closer.
PSI measures the risk environment. Elliott Wave provides the roadmap. Price confirms the thesis

Perfect Storm Index™ | 10 August 2026
🟠 Today’s Reading: 57/100
Yesterday: 58 | Change: -1
Risk conditions remain elevated, but continue to ease gradually.
Lower volatility, stable crypto markets and easing funding pressures are mildly constructive, while a strong dollar, elevated yields and tight financial conditions continue to constrain risk appetite.
The PSI remains cautious, not complacent.
Stay selective. Manage risk. Cash is a position.
#PerfectStormIndex #Markets #Macro #Bitcoin #Crypto

Still favouring a deeper Wave 2 correction in #OIL towards the $71 area.
That could coincide with a further near-term advance in #BTC and #Crypto.
But the bigger setup may come afterwards.
Oil will likely show hidden bullish divergence once Wave 2 completes, then the preferred count points to a potentially powerful Wave 3 higher.
If that develops into Q4, sharply higher oil could become another macro headwind for inflation, rates and ultimately risk assets.
Oil down → crypto relief → oil reversal → Q4 risk?
A scenario, not a certainty but one I'm watching closely.

The preferred Elliott Wave count continues to favour a C-wave rally in #SOL.
Even a move to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension would take SOL comfortably above $85.
If #Bitcoin completes its expected B-wave advance, #Solana could outperform during the final leg higher.
Probabilities outweigh Predictions IMO
#Crypto #BTC #ElliottWave

My current long-term probability assessment for #BTC
65% – One final rally (potentially a marginal new ATH) before a larger corrective decline.
35% – The cycle has already topped and the ATH marks the final high.
Price targets are simply weighted probabilities, not predictions.
Two valid long-term Elliott Wave counts remain:
Count A (preferred): One final impulsive advance before a larger C wave decline.
Count B: The ATH marked the cycle peak and the current rally is merely a corrective bounce.
The market will decide. Our job is to assess probabilities, manage risk and adapt as new informatio

My current probability assessment - #BTC LONG TERM.
65% - One final rally (possibly a marginal new ATH) before a larger decline.
35% - The cycle already topped and the ATH was the final high.
Targets are simply weighted probabilities, not predictions.
Two valid long-term counts remain.
Count A (preferred): One final advance before a larger C wave.
Count B: The ATH marked the cycle peak, and the current rally is only a correction.
The market will decide. Our job is to assign probabilities not certainties.

There are multiple valid Elliott Wave interpretations for #OIL at present.
The correction may already be complete, it may continue as a triangle, or it's even possible that the entire five-wave decline has already finished.
This is exactly why Elliott Wave should be used as a probability framework, not a prediction tool.
When multiple counts remain valid, patience is often the highest-probability position.
For now, I have no interest in forcing a trade in oil.
#WTI #CrudeOil #ElliottWave #Trading

My response to an earlier question which I consider to be quite important

This is currently my preferred long-term Elliott Wave count for #ETH.
The advance into the 2021 high is best viewed as a clean five-wave impulse, completing a larger Wave A.
Since then, I believe #Ethereum has been developing a larger Wave B correction, itself unfolding as a smaller A-B-C structure. If that interpretation is correct, we are now in the latter stages of the smaller C wave.
Watch carefully though as we have had a nice reaction higher from the Hidden Bullish Divergence signal!
Once this corrective phase is complete, the next major move should be a powerful impulsive advance as the

This is currently my preferred long-term Elliott Wave count for #ETH.
The advance into the 2021 high is best viewed as a clean five-wave impulse, completing a larger Wave A.
Since then, I believe #Ethereum has been developing a larger Wave B correction, itself unfolding as a smaller A-B-C structure. If that interpretation is correct, we are now in the latter stages of the smaller C wave.
Once this corrective phase is complete, the next major move should be a powerful impulsive advance as the larger bull trend resumes.
Pain before the gain.
As always, Elliott Wave is about probabilities, not ce

Perfect Storm Index™ | 7 August 2026
🟠 Today's Reading: 58/100
Risk conditions have edged higher, but there has been no material deterioration in the broader market environment.
A firmer dollar, elevated bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on risk assets, while complacent sentiment remains a concern.
Our base case remains one of selective risk management rather than panic.
The market isn't in a perfect storm yet, but the clouds continue to gather, which aligns with the longer term Elliott wave view for a potential Q4 low
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Stocks #Macro #

Iran says it wont make any peace deal with the United States, not now not ever. Iran is working with Oman to split the Strait of Hormuz between the two neighbours charging all ships a fee or toll to pass the Strait. Iran says the US is not in the negotiations.
It’s not over yet!

This is a very interesting section of the #BTC chart within the highlighted ellipse.
At first glance, the decline appears as though it could be the start of a leading diagonal (Wave 1 lower).
However, that interpretation breaks Elliott Wave rules because the proposed third wave would be the shortest. In a motive wave, Wave 3 can never be the shortest.
That invalidates the leading diagonal interpretation and instead suggests this move is simply a corrective pullback within the existing advance.
Unless price action proves otherwise, the path of least resistance remains higher.

#Oil falling
#BTC rising
The inverse relationship is continuing to play out.
If $OIL completes its correction into the 100% (A=C) extension shown on the chart, watch closely for signs of a reversal.
A rebound in Oil could reintroduce inflationary pressure and become a headwind for $BTC and other risk assets.
As always, markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

If A = C, #OIL could still fall towards the $71 area before reversing higher.
A deep Wave 2 correction would be entirely consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and could coincide with oversold RSI and Hidden Bullish Divergence.
If that setup develops, it would strengthen the case for the next impulsive advance.
Markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

#BTC may not be finished to the upside just yet.
A modest move higher could complete a small ABC correction within a larger Wave B.
For now, the structure still looks corrective rather than the start of a new bull trend, so I'm treating any strength as a counter trend rally until proven otherwise.
As always, probabilities over predictions. Manage risk accordingly.