#Oil falling
#BTC rising
The inverse relationship is continuing to play out.
If $OIL completes its correction into the 100% (A=C) extension shown on the chart, watch closely for signs of a reversal.
A rebound in Oil could reintroduce inflationary pressure and become a headwind for $BTC and other risk assets.
As always, markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

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MatthewDixon

21h ago

If A = C, #OIL could still fall towards the $71 area before reversing higher.
A deep Wave 2 correction would be entirely consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and could coincide with oversold RSI and Hidden Bullish Divergence.
If that setup develops, it would strengthen the case for the next impulsive advance.
Markets deal in probabilities, not certainties.

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GateUser-5843aff5:

nice to see the gardian and quiet for a while and easy victory's

MatthewDixon

21h ago

#BTC may not be finished to the upside just yet.
A modest move higher could complete a small ABC correction within a larger Wave B.
For now, the structure still looks corrective rather than the start of a new bull trend, so I'm treating any strength as a counter trend rally until proven otherwise.
As always, probabilities over predictions. Manage risk accordingly.

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MatthewDixon

08-04 12:53

One week ago I proposed that #OIL had completed a clean 5-wave advance, with Wave 5 reaching 1.618× Wave 1.
That scenario has unfolded closely as expected, followed by a three-wave ABC correction.
If this count remains valid, Oil could soon begin another leg higher. That would likely add inflationary pressure and weigh on #BTC, #Crypto and other risk assets.
Markets deal in probabilities, not certainties. Risk management always comes first.

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MatthewDixon

08-04 12:30

I proposed 1 week ago that #OIL had advanced in 5 clean waves with wave 5 = 1.618 X wave 1
That is precisely what happened and has been followed as expected by 3 waves down abc.
We should soon get another burst higher which will damage #BTC #Crypto & risk assets in general

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MatthewDixon

08-04 08:38

There is currently little evidence that #BTC has completed its correction.
Buying here could prove to be catching a falling knife if the broader downtrend resumes.
I'd rather miss the first 10% of a new bull move than the last 50% of a bear market.
PSI™: 58/100 – Elevated Risk
Patience pays.

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MatthewDixon

08-03 13:40

#BTC to $20k?
It sounds outrageous... until you study previous Bitcoin cycles.
I'm not predicting $20k, but it's a scenario worth considering if this correction evolves into a full cyclical bear market.
Successful investing isn't about certainty, it's about preparing for multiple outcomes and managing risk accordingly.

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Web3Genius:

l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l

MatthewDixon

08-02 11:22

Personally, I believe there is PLENTY of time for another #DXY low before a potentially rapid rise to coincide with the proposed Q4 low in #BTC & #Crypto
Selloffs can be violent affairs and as they say, corrections are often much more aggressive than rallies

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MatthewDixon

08-02 08:08

USD/JPY may not be finished just yet.
Hidden Bullish Divergence, combined with an oversold RSI, suggests a relief rally could be close. If USD/JPY rebounds, it would likely imply renewed Yen weakness and a short-term improvement in risk appetite—potentially providing some relief for #Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
Markets rarely move in straight lines.
If you trade #USDYEN then we have perfect open and close signals with these divergences

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MatthewDixon

08-02 08:01

Perfect Storm Index™ | 2 August 2026
Today's Reading: 72/100 🔴
Risk conditions remain elevated. Liquidity continues to tighten while safe-haven demand is strengthening, with USD/JPY, the US Dollar and volatility all reinforcing a defensive macro backdrop.
The market doesn't need panic, it needs discipline.
When risk builds beneath the surface, protecting capital becomes just as important as seeking returns imo.
📉 Liquidity tightening
💵 USD firm
🇯🇵 Yen strengthening (risk-off)
📈 Volatility elevated
🌊 Elliott Wave remains corrective
The Perfect Storm Index™ isn't designed to predict every

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MatthewDixon

08-02 07:57

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MatthewDixon

08-01 09:36

USD/JPY is one of the market's most important risk proxies. Here, Regular Bearish Divergence warned of the imminent reversal, with Yen strength reinforcing the shift to a risk-off environment across #Bitcoin and broader markets.

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MatthewDixon

08-01 08:30

- U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield jumps to highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
(This is very bad for the US government)
-Washington Sold Euros to buy Japanese Yen in an extremely rare market intervention.
-Recent events confirm US Treasury notified banks of potential currency trades to support the yen, aligning with a sharp yen surge on July 30-31, 2026, suspected as Japanese intervention with possible US coordination via euro-yen exchanges.
— US national debt has officially surpassed $40 TRILLION for the first time in history.
Pressures of energy, war, and the AI arms

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MatthewDixon

08-01 06:20

Since the #BTC all-time high, we've seen a series of sideways corrective structures, each followed by another leg lower.
If this pattern continues, the current consolidation may represent another corrective B wave before a further decline.
Markets are driven by probabilities, not certainties—but for now, the weight of evidence continues to favour caution.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ElliottWave #Trading

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Arisaputra17:

hello, hope you have a nice day, chase your dreams as high as the sky

MatthewDixon

08-01 05:58

Thank you to everyone following the Perfect Storm Index™ (PSI).
Behind every daily reading sits a broad range of macro, sentiment and technical indicators designed to quantify market risk, not headlines or opinions.
The goal isn't to predict the future. It's to help investors better understand probabilities and manage risk accordingly.
Thank you for being part of the journey.
#PSI #Bitcoin #Markets #Macro #Trading

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MatthewDixon

08-01 04:57

While the broader #BTC outlook remains bearish, it is entirely possible that the B wave has one final push higher before the next impulsive decline begins.

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GateUser-410bb95d:

While the broader #BTC outlook remains bearish, it is entirely possible that the B wave has one final push higher before the next impulsive decline begins.

MatthewDixon

07-31 09:51

Yesterday I explored the possibility of an impulsive count for #BTC, but after reviewing the evidence I don't believe it fits as well as the corrective interpretation from the all-time high.
My preferred count still calls for one more leg lower before the larger bull market resumes.
If correct, that should set the stage for a powerful advance to new all-time highs in 2027.
Elliott Wave isn't about certainty, it's about assigning probabilities and adapting as new information emerges.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ElliottWave #Trading #PerfectStormIndex™

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MatthewDixon

07-31 09:30

PERFECT STORM Index™
31 July 2026
Today's Reading: 76/100 🟠
Yesterday: 76 → Today: 76 (No Change)
The macro backdrop remains finely balanced. Sticky inflation, restrictive monetary policy and tight liquidity continue to limit risk appetite, while a firm US dollar keeps financial conditions relatively restrictive.
Key drivers:
• 📉 Liquidity: Constrained
• 💵 DXY: Firm
• 🌊 Elliott Wave: Corrective structure suggests caution
• 😐 Sentiment: Neutral to complacent
• 🛢️ Oil: Neutral
A 76 doesn't predict an imminent decline, it simply indicates that market conditions continue to warrant disciplin

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MatthewDixon

07-30 13:08

I present here a VALID alternative #BTC count (in black) that has a 5 wave impulse down from the ATH with the 3rd wave 2.618 X 1st wave. (thats pretty convincing)
Either way, whether corrective OR impulsive down, we should expect lower as 5th wave or C wave of Y section of WXY

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MatthewDixon

07-30 07:02

Perfect Storm Index™: 76/100 🔴
Bitcoin continues to consolidate, but the macro backdrop remains challenging.
The biggest uncertainty isn't today's price action, it's whether the Fed can return inflation sustainably to target without triggering a sharper economic slowdown.
Markets are pricing hope. The data still demands caution IMO
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #FOMC #Inflation #FED

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