MatthewDixon

Why Iran is likely the bigger short-term driver than Saylor #BTC sales
I mentioned a few days ago that there is more "bad" news top come - The $BTC chart is clear that we have been correcting higher since the FEB low and we need a further low.
When Bitcoin dropped below $73k recently, the selloff coincided with:
U.S. strikes on Iranian targets,
renewed Middle East escalation,
oil moving higher,
risk assets selling off globally,
nearly $1 billion in #crypto liquidations.
Why the Saylor news matters psychologically
The actual sale was tiny:
Strategy sold only 32 BTC $2.5 million
while still hold

As we can see from the comparative performance with some major #Crypto, $ICP is making a very strong showing today.
#ICP has been a favourite of late because of all the reasons mentioned in previous posts
Also we can see a base is forming, beginning with a potential leading diagonal before a sharper impulsive looking move up
However, holding support is critical at this stage, so caution is still warranted despite the many positives.

Could it be that #BTC wave 1 (red) is not yet quite complete?
It is for this reason that I believe it is better to wait for more clarity than risk taking a position at present

#ADA is a very interesting and revealing chart.
Notice that the most recent low was a NEW LOW. This means that we MUST count the large move up as A and NOT 1 (because wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% x 1)
So the move down appears to be B and will likely go lower before the turnaround. The good news is, we should exceed $ADA 1.3278 in the Bull run expected to begin late this year.
RSI is near the bottom but can go lower in a capitulation scenario

#OIL likely has a little lower to go to fulfil c=a at 100%
This gives some confidence that #BTC will head a little higher (inverse correlation)

#BTC is continuing to track our expectations.
The minor correction higher is making SLOW progress as you would expect, as the larger trend is still down.
I am awaiting slightly higher $BTC and other #Crypto prices to sell short (ideally between the 50% & 61.8% retracement higher of wave 2 against wave 1)

One indicator from TradingView left me a little confused - So back to simplicity for me....
My chart shows #BTC/#XAU has corrected higher precisely in correlation with BTC/$
This is a corrective, overlapping abc structure that should resolve lower as $BTC weakens in coming weeks.
We also have a 'perfect' break of #RSI support signalling the downturn.

Current analysis indicates we are likely working on EW wave 2 higher for $BTC before powerful wave 3 down.
The key question is, HOW DEEP WILL WAVE 2 GO???
In EW theory, Wave 2 most commonly retraces 50 to 61.8% of Wave 1, but it can vary significantly, right up to 100% (but not beyond)
Typically Wave 2 Retraces
38.2% Shallow
50.0% Very common
61.8% Most common
78.6% Deep
88.6% Occasionally in sharp zigzags
So I would look to place #BTC DCA short positions FROM around 50% and add to my positions at further retracements with a stop loss fractionally beyond 100%

Here we see the precise fractal nature of waves within waves.
#BTC five clear waves down. The 3rd wave broken into five clear waves with the 3rd internal wave being exactly #FIB 1.618 (Golden ratio) X wave 1.
We should now expect wave 2 higher following Bullish Divergence shown, as either a 'Flat 3,3,5 or 'Zigzag 5,3,5 or combination
Then aggressive wave 3 down to follow.

Expecting a further small push higher following the Hidden Bullish Divergence shown for #BTC.
This is just a small corrective wave 2 and is not tradeable imo.
I am awaiting wave 2 completion in order to sell $BTC in anticipation of an aggressive wave 3 down

Expecting a further small push higher following the Hidden Bearish Divergence shown for #BTC.
This is just a small corrective wave 2 and is not tradeable imo.
I am awaiting wave 2 completion in order to sell $BTC in anticipation of an aggressive wave 3 down

As noted a few days ago, #OIL is expected to fall further (as it has done) with an opposite inversely correlated response from #BTC & #Crypto which is now beginning to respond higher.
Triangles are pre-terminal waves in a cycle and so, once the E wave is complete (which is the only wave allowed to under or overshoot the trend lines) then we will get a POWERFUL terminal wave higher for $OIL, lower for $BTC $ALTs Highly likely due to a near future re-escalation of #Geopolitical tensions.

#BTC has been guided pretty well within a parallel channel and I expect we will see a bounce now. (I AM NOT BUYING - JUST WAITING FOR A BETTER LVEL TO SELL)
Those who are less risk averse could consider scalping long positions with sensible targets and stops

The 1st wave down of the larger C wave appears to be about complete now - broken into 5 clean impulsive waves and even the internal 3rd wave is also broken into 5 waves with the 3rd being exactly 1,618 X 1st wave.
#BTC should soon head higher again in a 2nd wave towards the pink box target area.
Again it is dangerous to go long and better to await upside targets to go short imo

There we see that inverse correlation again. #Oil up 3% last night and the corresponding sell off in #BTC & #Crypto

#ETH appears to be showing us a clean impulse up to A and a wxy correction down to B
The next move should be higher in C wave likely to the circled target and this may be a good area to begin entering DCA short positions, adding if price goes a little higher BUT with defined risk in mind

Can you see the inverse correlation playing out between the #BTC and #OIL charts shown?
This has got to be a warning - DO NOT GET CAUGHT LONG $BTC (especially leveraged long) IMO
However, make your own decisions - just be careful and use stop losses wisely

WARNING!
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS LIKELY TO RE-ESCALATE SOON.
#OIL is working through a consolidation Triangle before blasting HIGHER (once the triangle is complete)
This means #BTC & #Crypto can push a little higher before the next BIG leg down.

PICK OF THE MONTH
#NEAR Protocol is one of the more interesting “survivor” Layer-1 projects right now because it has:
real technology, strong developer tooling and a clear AI narrative,
AND it avoided becoming a completely abandoned ghost chain.
But can it regain major mindshare and sustained user/network growth?
$NEAR held the $1 support zone and never had a decisive breakdown and that likely created a large accumulation base.
The recent move higher is impulsive! and accompanied by very strong #RSI momentum and the chart currently looks more bullish than bearish short-to-medium term.
So we ha

The short term "Traders" view for #BTC indicates that we will likely push a little higher before the next major impulse lower