MatthewDixon

Looking at the last two #BTC halving cycles, something interesting stands out.
#Bitcoin recorded a major cycle low:
• 513 days before the 2020 halving
• 516 days before the 2024 halving
Just a 3-day variation.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 2028.
If, and it's a big IF, that timing relationship persists, a comparable cycle low would fall around November 2026.
Interestingly, that aligns closely with my existing Elliott Wave work pointing towards a potential Q4 2026 low.
Two observations don't make a statistical law, but when independent methods begin pointing towards the same

Could #Bitcoin's entire history represent one enormous leading diagonal? Yes IMO.
If so, the 2025 ATH may be far more significant than simply the top of another four-year cycle.
It's not a prediction, it is a low-probability but potentially very high-consequence scenario that deserves to remain on the risk map.
A wave 2 following a leading diagonal is normally expected to be deep. A retracement toward 61.8% of the entire advance would put BTC somewhere around the $45–50k region depending on precisely where the diagonal is anchored.

#Bitcoin is still “treading water” within what I see as a corrective B wave. Price may drift a little higher from here, but the broader trend remains down.
Ideally, another push higher would lift RSI towards overbought territory while momentum fails to confirm the price advance, creating bearish divergence.
That would add technical weight to the case for a final C wave lower, completing the corrective cycle from the ATH.
No certainty. No prediction dressed up as fact. Just watching the probabilities and the risk environment. #BTC

The Perfect Storm Index™ 12 August 2026
Today’s PSI: 61/100 🟠
Market Pressure: ELEVATED
Daily Change: +2
Risk conditions have deteriorated modestly.
💵 DXY remains firm
📈 US yields remain elevated
🛢️ Oil/geopolitical risk is increasing
💧 Liquidity is showing early improvement
₿ Crypto sentiment remains cautious
The important point is the confluence. Dollar strength, elevated yields and higher oil are maintaining pressure on risk assets, even as liquidity begins to offer some offset. Today's markets continue to reflect those competing forces.
PSI doesn’t predict the future. It quantifies th

#Bitcoin advanced from the FTX low around $15,500 to the ATH in what appears to be a remarkably clean 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, with some compelling Fibonacci relationships.
Since the ATH, price appears to have shifted into corrective mode.
My preferred interpretation is that the correction is not yet complete and that at least one further leg lower remains probable before the larger bullish trend can resume.
That is a probability, not a prediction. If the structure changes, so does the view.
Short-term caution. Long-term opportunity.
#BTC #Crypto #ElliottWave

Tentative evidence that #DXY may have bottomed near the lower boundary of this long-term rising channel. A structure that has existed for almost the entire history of #Bitcoin.
If the channel continues to hold, renewed dollar strength could tighten financial conditions and increase pressure on #BTC and #Crypto.
This also helps explain why the Perfect Storm Index™ remains elevated.
Not a prediction — a risk to be respected.
#DXY #Bitcoin #Macro #PSI

The Perfect Storm Index™ 11 August 2026
Today’s PSI: 59/100 🟠
Market Pressure: ELEVATED
Daily Change: +2
Risk conditions remain elevated, with liquidity still tight and the US dollar and yields remaining firm.
Volatility remains subdued, but risk appetite is constrained and the broader Elliott Wave/momentum picture remains cautious.
The important point: 59 is not a prediction. It is a measure of the current risk environment.
Stay defensive. Protect capital. Cash is a position.
#PerfectStormIndex #PSI #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro

Any hope left for #JASMY?
From its 2021 extreme, JASMY has fallen around 99%. A brutal reminder that in crypto, a 90% decline can still be followed by another 90% decline.
But this is where it gets interesting.
Price is now returning towards the base of the powerful 2024 advance. If that move represented the beginning of a larger bullish cycle, this is roughly where we need to start seeing evidence of accumulation and structural reversal.
If not, the bear market remains firmly in control.
No predictions. No hopium. Watch the structure and let price provide the evidence.

The improving Perfect Storm Index™ over recent days is being validated by the gradual recovery in risk assets, including #BTC and #Crypto.
This aligns with my preferred Elliott Wave count, a corrective B-wave recovery remains underway.
The next phase could become particularly interesting.
If #BTC continues higher while momentum begins to weaken, bearish RSI divergence could develop, providing additional evidence that the B wave is approaching completion and the larger C wave lower is getting closer.
PSI measures the risk environment. Elliott Wave provides the roadmap. Price confirms the thesis

Perfect Storm Index™ | 10 August 2026
🟠 Today’s Reading: 57/100
Yesterday: 58 | Change: -1
Risk conditions remain elevated, but continue to ease gradually.
Lower volatility, stable crypto markets and easing funding pressures are mildly constructive, while a strong dollar, elevated yields and tight financial conditions continue to constrain risk appetite.
The PSI remains cautious, not complacent.
Stay selective. Manage risk. Cash is a position.
#PerfectStormIndex #Markets #Macro #Bitcoin #Crypto

Still favouring a deeper Wave 2 correction in #OIL towards the $71 area.
That could coincide with a further near-term advance in #BTC and #Crypto.
But the bigger setup may come afterwards.
Oil will likely show hidden bullish divergence once Wave 2 completes, then the preferred count points to a potentially powerful Wave 3 higher.
If that develops into Q4, sharply higher oil could become another macro headwind for inflation, rates and ultimately risk assets.
Oil down → crypto relief → oil reversal → Q4 risk?
A scenario, not a certainty but one I'm watching closely.

The preferred Elliott Wave count continues to favour a C-wave rally in #SOL.
Even a move to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension would take SOL comfortably above $85.
If #Bitcoin completes its expected B-wave advance, #Solana could outperform during the final leg higher.
Probabilities outweigh Predictions IMO
#Crypto #BTC #ElliottWave

My current long-term probability assessment for #BTC
65% – One final rally (potentially a marginal new ATH) before a larger corrective decline.
35% – The cycle has already topped and the ATH marks the final high.
Price targets are simply weighted probabilities, not predictions.
Two valid long-term Elliott Wave counts remain:
Count A (preferred): One final impulsive advance before a larger C wave decline.
Count B: The ATH marked the cycle peak and the current rally is merely a corrective bounce.
The market will decide. Our job is to assess probabilities, manage risk and adapt as new informatio

My current probability assessment - #BTC LONG TERM.
65% - One final rally (possibly a marginal new ATH) before a larger decline.
35% - The cycle already topped and the ATH was the final high.
Targets are simply weighted probabilities, not predictions.
Two valid long-term counts remain.
Count A (preferred): One final advance before a larger C wave.
Count B: The ATH marked the cycle peak, and the current rally is only a correction.
The market will decide. Our job is to assign probabilities not certainties.

There are multiple valid Elliott Wave interpretations for #OIL at present.
The correction may already be complete, it may continue as a triangle, or it's even possible that the entire five-wave decline has already finished.
This is exactly why Elliott Wave should be used as a probability framework, not a prediction tool.
When multiple counts remain valid, patience is often the highest-probability position.
For now, I have no interest in forcing a trade in oil.
#WTI #CrudeOil #ElliottWave #Trading