MatthewDixon

Im watching with interest as the PSI remains high despite the positivity in #BTC & #Crypto - lets see.....
⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 87/100
EXTREME RISK | Unchanged
Oil eased slightly, but the wider storm remains:
• Brent above $103
• US 10-year yield near 5%
• Dollar at a seven-week high
• Persistent Middle East risk
• Inflation and further rate-hike concerns
• Fragile underlying market structure
The PSI signals vulnerability, not a guaranteed market decline. The storm has not passed.
Capital preservation and disciplined position management remain the priority.
One Number. Multiple Market Sign

#ETH may have completed wave 1 of a potential five wave advance.
If this count is correct, a modest wave 2 pullback could develop over the weekend before further upside next week toward the $2,550–$2,700 region.
The broader move still looks corrective, however, so I remain alert to renewed downside once all five waves are complete.
Trade the evidence, not the prediction.

Even beleaguered #JASMY holders may have something to look forward to.
A short-term rally appears increasingly possible and perhaps a fairly decent one. RSI has room to move higher, while the latest corrective decline may be complete for now.
Short-term optimism, however, should not be confused with confirmation of a broader trend reversal.

Trading is a game of chess, not a game of predictions.
Every move depends on what the market does next.
Bitcoin’s current consolidation may prove bullish, but confirmation must come from price. If resistance breaks, we adapt. If support fails, we reassess.
Strong traders don’t become emotionally attached to one outcome. They consider the possibilities, manage risk and respond to the evidence, one move at a time.
The objective isn’t to predict every move.
It’s to remain in the game long enough to deliver checkmate. ♟️
#Bitcoin #BTC #Trading

A short-term target of $62 for litecoin:native would not be unreasonable based on the current chart structure, provided #LTC price can break decisively through the $57.50–$59.50 resistance zone.

#XRP appears to be on the cusp of a strong rally and could outperform many other #Crypto assets.
It is still too early to draw firm conclusions about the medium-term outlook, but the short-term setup looks increasingly promising.
Trade the evidence, step by step.

I have turned at least short term Bullish #SOl #BTC #ETH and most #Crypto.
During the consolidation shown I took multiple short scalping positions on various assets but that is no longer viable imo with the consolidation (shaded area) apparently complete AND RSI having broken an overhead resistance to push higher.

The hallmark of a successful trader is the willingness to follow the current evidence, even when it contradicts an earlier view. Adaptability beats dogma. It is never too late to change your outlook.
#Oil dipped overnight but geopolitical risk remains elevated.
The West’s most powerful leader is unpredictable and capable of unsettling markets through sudden military or foreign-policy decisions.
More positively though, growing institutional and political opposition may finally be placing meaningful constraints on his ability to act unilaterally.
Markets evolve and so must our assessment of ri

I see some Bullish signs for $ETH and so im challenging my earlier more bearish outlook.
#ETH appears to be in bullish consolidation.
Above the 50- and 200-day MAs
Golden cross intact
RSI positive, not overbought
A daily close above $2,650 opens $2,800–$3,000.
Below $2,330 exposes $2,200, then $2,050–$2,100.
Positive bias but no decisive breakout yet.
Keeping my power dry

#DXY is potentially completing a corrective structure.
A sustained move from D toward 103–104.5 could complete E/B.
Rejection there would support the larger C-wave decline.
A decisive break above the A–C boundary, especially above roughly 104.5–105 would weaken or invalidate this triangle interpretation.
Currently aligning with my thesis for a potential Q4 #BTC #Crypto low

#DXY is potentially completing a contracting triangle.
A sustained move from D toward 103–104.5 could complete E/B.
Rejection there would support the larger C-wave decline.
A decisive break above the A–C boundary, especially above roughly 104.5–105 would weaken or invalidate this triangle interpretation.
Currently aligning with my thesis for a potential Q4 #BTC #Crypto low

Which way should #BTC move from here?
Double bearish divergence, rejection from channel resistance and a bearish daily MACD crossover all favour the downside.
The first important test is $70K–$72K. Lose that, and the lower channel boundary comes into view.
A decisive break above $82K–$84K would challenge the bearish count.

The odds are now marginally in favour of another rate rise at next month’s Fed meeting.
However, a 50.9% probability reflects uncertainty, not conviction. Much can change between now and then.
If my thesis of a Q4 capitulation low for #BTC proves correct, I suspect the catalyst will be a geopolitical shock rather than monetary policy alone.

#DXY has moved higher following the Fed’s hawkish message, and the technical structure suggests it may have further to run.
I interpret continued dollar strength as a negative bias for #BTC, #Crypto and risk assets, at least until the dollar begins to reverse lower.
The projected E-wave remains a scenario, not yet a confirmed target.

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 88/100
Risk conditions intensified following the Fed’s hawkish rate increase.
🔴 Further tightening signalled
🔴 DXY at a seven-week high
🔴 Treasury yields near 5%
🔴 Brent above $105
🔴 Geopolitical and supply risks remain elevated
The PSI does not predict that a crash is certain. It shows that the environment remains exceptionally vulnerable to further shocks.
One number. Multiple market signals. Every trading day.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #FederalReserve

Im not massively Bearish over the likely Rate rise we should see in about 2.5 hours from now it is largely discounted now imo.
My main expectation is a 25 bp “neutral hike”
#ETH "probably" initially dips toward $2,350, then rebounds toward $2,420–$2,475 as the uncertainty clears.
Bigger moves are more based on Geopolitical challenges ahead.

Are there any economic comparisons that liken the current environment to that before previous crashes?

Unlike several other crypto assets, $BTC is not currently showing a Death Cross, reflecting its relative strength and continued market dominance.
However, the double bearish divergence, combined with the weekly MACD beginning to roll over, is not an encouraging setup ahead of the Fed decision.
This does not guarantee that price will decline, it simply signals that downside risk remains elevated. #Bitcoin #Crypto
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