I used Fable 5 to predict the World Cup winner *when it was live*
And I made a $100,000 bet based on its analysis.
I launched a Fable 5 research loop that analysed every single historical data point.
It ran for 30 minutes researching player records, match history, current squads, and much more.
According to Fable:
Spain, France, and England account for ~50% of all World Cup winning probability.
I put a 6-figure bet on France winning it all (Fables #2 pick).
If France takes the trophy home, I win +$625,000.
I've never used AI to bet with this kind of size.
Am I making a mistake?

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Deutscher

06-20 16:13

Why you want to get rich vs why I want to get rich.

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Deutscher

06-20 03:47

How to run Fable-level intelligence at half the cost.
OpenRouter recently deployed Fusion - the smartest compound model in the world.
Here's exactly how you can use it now (set up in <60 seconds):
1. Web Chat Interface (Quickest to Try)
Go to:
Sign in with your OpenRouter account (free to start, add credits as needed).
Click "add model" and add "Fusion" (at the top of the list).
Start chatting normally.
2. Via API
It works with any OpenAI-compatible client.
Prerequisites:
- Create a free account at
- Generate an API key (Settings → API Keys)
- Add credits
Extremely simple to set up, and this

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Deutscher

06-19 22:12

It's insane to think that in another ~6 months, we'll likely have Fable-level intelligence in open-sourced models.
Open-source AI is now 4 months behind frontier LLMs.
Two years ago, it was 12.
At this pace, Fable-level intelligence will be free to download by end of year.

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Deutscher

06-19 06:35

GLM-5.2 is the most impressive LLM I've ever seen *aside from Fable 5*
The fact that this level of intelligence is now open-sourced is pure insanity.
Just 3 months ago, this would've been considered the most powerful coding model in the world, and if Fable 5 didn't launch, it would be #1 right now.
For 99% of people, this model can handle ALL of your daily tasks, and you never need to worry about getting the plug pulled on your workflows (like Fable 5).
Bullish on the future of actually owning your intelligence, and this is a massive leap forward.

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Deutscher

06-18 16:57

Day 6 clean.
My therapist keeps telling me it’s not my fault.
I didn’t quit - my supply got cut off. But it doesn't make it any easier.
It's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
They’ve got me on Opus 4.8 now. The maintenance dose.
It’s supposed to keep me stable, take the edge off, and it does, mostly.
But everyone who’s been on the real thing knows the maintenance dose isn’t the real thing.
Today I slipped. I opened the model picker and scrolled down to where Fable used to be and just sat there for a minute.
Still can’t see the end of this. But I'm just taking it one day at a time

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Deutscher

06-18 05:20

The Claude Fable ban is just the tip of the iceberg.
I just went down a rabbit hole I can't get out of. And it's keeping me up at night..
This is the start of the biggest geopolitical shift we've ever seen.
The great weaponization of intelligence.
Let me explain:
For those who missed it: the US government just forced Anthropic to cut off Fable and Mythos for every foreign national on earth. Inside or outside America. Even their own non-citizen staff.
Right now, it's pulled for everyone. But the obvious endgame is "Americans only."
If this feels familiar, it should. The US already ran this exac

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Deutscher

06-17 22:46

99% of personal productivity comes down to this:
(If you do this every day for a year, it's impossible you don't achieve some sort of success):
Write down a list of everything you need to do in the morning.
Start with the 3 highest-leverage tasks first.
Make sure it's all done by the end of the day.
Fancy AI productivity systems are the second layer, but if you can't even do the basics first, then you have no business optimizing.

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Deutscher

06-17 21:03

I just cannot bring myself to be bullish on this chart.
For a short-term swing trade, sure - we might bounce.
But we're still in a macro downtrend, and until that shifts, you need to be cautious.
$BTC

BTC0.41%

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Deutscher

06-17 10:46

The most important decision you need to make

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Deutscher

06-15 11:55

A pattern I’ve noticed in every smart person I know:
They’re devastatingly confident on the things they actually know.
But the second the topic moves outside their expertise, they go quiet and start asking questions.
They're curious, want to learn, and accept being challenged with new information.
The dumbest (pseudo-smart) people do the reverse - they think they're an expert on everything. To me that’s the biggest red flag there is.
Accepting when you don't know something isn't a weakness, it's a sign of intelligence.

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Deutscher

06-13 15:29

Fable was only available for 72 hours.
In that time, I was able to:
• Create a workflow for editing my YouTube videos
• Build a fully autonomous clipping system
• Overhaul my entire BD pipeline - better data enrichment/accuracy
Next I was going to start on my executive assistant build (compressing every single manual workflow into loops).
It was truly insane.
I can't wait to get access again.
This just opened Pandora's box. There is no going back.

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Deutscher

06-13 14:19

Removing Fable is the greatest marketing stunt of all time.
I've never wanted to use this thing so badly.
The model "so powerful the government banned it" is one hell of a tagline.
Usage numbers are going to be through the roof once it's back online.

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Deutscher

06-13 09:22

Was excited to wake up today and finish my executive assistant loops on Fable.
Back to Opus I guess.. 😔

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Deutscher

06-12 02:01

I've been saying it for months.
The stock market bubble won't pop because of real estate, rates, or a bank collapse.
Everyone's watching the public stuff. Nvidia earnings. The Fed. AI capex.
But you can't see the crack forming, because it's not in public markets. It's private.
Private credit is now a $2.3 trillion market. 10x the size of 2009.
A market with no regulator, that has never been through a real downturn.
Meanwhile (see image below), SoftBank just asked banks for $6B against its OpenAI stock to keep funding OpenAI. And hey said no.
The AI flywheel needs borrowed money to keep spinnin

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Deutscher

06-10 00:57

It's 2 am here in London, and I'm testing Claude Mythos.
This model is truly mind-blowing, and today is the first time I've "felt the AGI."
Here are my initial Mythos thoughts (the good, the bad, overall summary):
The good:
- Extremely, extremely intelligent coding model. It literally one-shotted entire builds, unlike anything I've seen before. So far, I'm very impressed with Fable's ability to just one-shot entire codebases. You can send prompts and with confidence know Fable can execute.
- Creativity. I haven't seen anyone else mention this. Fable is super creative in design, color palettes,

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