Featured$XAU
Gold has been range-bound for a long time; the key question is whether it can break above 4200!
The daily chart has formed a setup worth taking a bet on. #比特币短线站上8.2万美元

XAU-1.13%

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XiuHu_charts2026-10-08

FeaturedThis round of the Fed’s monetary policy minutes took a hawkish turn, but the market expects no rate hike in October!
Actually, whether there is a hike in October does not require our close attention at this point. The core narrative is gradually shifting toward the midterm elections, which is the key focus right now.
The probability of one more rate hike this year has reached 90%. No hike in October, followed by a later hike, would be more helpful for our macro assessment, which is a good thing.#美联储9月纪要偏鹰

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XiuHu_charts2026-10-07

When it rains, it pours.😅

XiuHu_charts2026-10-07

US Treasuries continue to weigh heavily on the entire market! #美债

XiuHu_charts2026-09-30 05:12:26

Tonight’s PCE release: a brief discussion of U.S. Treasuries, oil prices, U.S.-Iran relations, and inflation!

Can PCE and nonfarm payrolls change the US Treasury market landscape? Something to look forward to!

XiuHu_charts2026-10-07

For reference only, not investment advice!#BTC

BTC+0.30%

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XiuHu_charts2026-10-02

Based on today’s data release, the Federal Reserve no longer has any reason to raise interest rates!
Because the unemployment rate rose for the first time, but this set of data is already beyond my comprehension…😂#非农就业数据

XiuHu_charts2026-10-02 11:26:10

Can tonight’s nonfarm payrolls determine the trend for the first half of the month—will it bring a pleasant surprise or a nasty shock? ##非农就业数据

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XiuHu_charts2026-10-02

Can tonight’s nonfarm payrolls determine the trend for the first half of the month—will it bring a pleasant surprise or a nasty shock? ##非农就业数据

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-30

$BTC
Skeptical of this positive news because the previous reading was revised! Also skeptical of my own view because reality really did drag things down—this is the market's attitude.
Taking a break, I'm done playing! In this state, playing only leads to losses. #核心PCE与GDP终值

BTC+0.06%

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-30

It did not meet expectations; the prediction was wrong!
But overall, the data is not purely bullish—it's a mixed bag, depending on which side the market focuses on. #核心PCE与GDP终值

XiuHu_charts2026-09-30 05:12:26

Tonight’s PCE release: a brief discussion of U.S. Treasuries, oil prices, U.S.-Iran relations, and inflation!

Can PCE and nonfarm payrolls change the US Treasury market landscape? Something to look forward to!

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-30

FeaturedTonight’s PCE release: a brief discussion of U.S. Treasuries, oil prices, U.S.-Iran relations, and inflation!

Can PCE and nonfarm payrolls change the US Treasury market landscape? Something to look forward to!

BTC+0.01%

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-21

FeaturedUS-Iran tensions return to the market spotlight—is Trump planning something?

The Iran-U.S. situation is back in focus.

BTC+0.01%

ETH+0.20%

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-18

FeaturedJapan’s rate hike has been implemented, with relatively dovish remarks!
Major macro events have been taking place one after another. Apart from Trump saying he is considering resuming military action to end the U.S.-Iran conflict as soon as possible, there are no particularly noteworthy major events coming up, just some macroeconomic data.
The market should start returning to a trend driven by capital and sentiment,
ETF outflows have continued for multiple days. Going forward, focus on whether ETF inflows resume. It seems that a rebound in the broader market should be highly likely.#日本央行加息至1.2

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-17

FeaturedThe ECB raised rates first, and the Fed followed!
If Japan follows with a rate hike, it can be said that the window for collective tightening by developed economies has officially opened.
In his 30-minute speech this time, Wash was interpreted by the market as taking a hawkish stance, but despite the rate hike combined with the hawkish tone, it did not have much of an impact on the market!
That is also why I previously pointed out that whether the Fed hikes rates is no longer worth paying attention to. Personally, I believe the focus is on tomorrow’s Japanese rate decision and policy statement

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-16

Good morning, yesterday I said there was no need to pay much attention to whether rates would be raised or not! Indeed, it only fluctuated briefly and then nothing happened. Thankfully I didn’t stay up late—no loss this time. 😆#BTC下跌3.3%

XiuHu_charts2026-09-16 06:24:45

The flu is way too brutal!
The fever has left me so dazed that I can’t tell povidone-iodine from Chuanbei,
and the povidone-iodine actually tastes okay—not that hard to swallow.
You guys can play the rate decision market—I’m in no condition to enjoy it,
and I feel that whether rates are raised or not is no longer worth paying attention to. The focus is still on Waller’s remarks and the dot plot. Yesterday or the day before, it seemed that the Fed’s move to buy bonds had been pushed back to October.
Compared with whether the Fed raises rates this time, I think we should focus more on whether Japan raises rates and its subsequent policies. This will affect the bond market, as both U.S. and Japanese government bonds are currently maintaining high levels!
I really hope the Fed raises rates, as that would allow a breakthrough to come sooner and set us on a new path. #美联储即将公布利率决定

BTC+0.01%

XiuHu_charts2026-09-16

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-15

The crypto market has really been suffering—we’ll be welcoming the Fed’s rate decision right after the CLARITY Act wraps up…#Gate广场中秋团圆局

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-14

Let me talk about two things!
1: A group of whales is actively positioning for short trades, including the S&P, BTC, and ETH. They are shorting the Fed rate-hike narrative, betting that the Fed will raise rates and that prices will fall!
2: Another group of whales is going long, betting on the rate hike being officially delivered and believing the market can absorb its impact.
At present, the shorts outweigh the longs, with very solid reasons: Wall Street is basically 100% certain that rates will be raised!
The reasons for going long are even more solid: Everyone already knows there will be a

SPX-0.58%

BTC+0.01%

ETH+0.20%

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-11

This CPI seems to have echoed what the cited article said: headline CPI is bleeding into core CPI, and it was all propped up by the energy component.
As for risk assets, they spiked and rebounded upon the data release, then returned to the range—this is getting really interesting.
Is this the legendary “bad news is good news once it hits the market”?😆#cpi

XiuHu_charts2026-09-11 04:38:26

It’s Friday—time to welcome a wonderful weekend!
Bessent set a $6 billion cap for this long-term debt buyback, but it seems the full amount wasn’t purchased. The Treasury actually accepted about $5.19 billion in face value.
The market feels the stance was not decisive enough; operationally, it looks more like some bids were not suitable enough, so the full amount was not accepted. U.S. Treasury yields are still holding at elevated levels.
This operation targeted maturities of 10–20 years, with more operations to come. As for whether the cap will be raised and how much will actually be repurchased, we’ll have to wait for the announcement, because this is not fixed.
CPI will be released tonight, and the market is eagerly awaiting it. It is also the final data release of the week.
Many people are curious: Why does core CPI exclude energy, while the market keeps saying energy is pushing inflation higher? Headline CPI includes energy; the media generally means headline CPI when it says this.
Crude oil is not directly included in core CPI, but it can be transmitted indirectly through costs and push prices higher.
Core CPI excludes crude oil simply to filter out short-term volatility; this does not mean we can ignore the fact that it remains a basic energy cost for society.
So it is fine to focus mainly on core CPI, but we also need to see whether headline CPI is feeding into core CPI.
If I had to assess tonight’s data, I think the odds favor a somewhat bearish outcome.
After all, yesterday’s PPI was relatively high. Although it was not explosive, oil prices breaking above $100 is also right there and cannot be ignored.
Looking more closely:
A core month-on-month reading of 0.3% would be genuinely hawkish,
core at 0.2% with headline CPI pushed higher by energy would be neutral, though sentiment could still remain tense,
and core at 0.1% would provide relatively more room to breathe.
Therefore, even if the released figures are not particularly bearish, the market will most likely still worry for a while—that is a matter of sentiment.
What is more worth watching now is not just the data itself, but how relevant officials respond to reassure the market if CPI really comes in above expectations.
Because Bessent has recently said that oil prices will fall significantly after the Iran-Israel war ends, and even mentioned $40–50!
The fact is that prices first broke through the $100 threshold.
They are verbally trying to suppress oil prices, but prices moved in the opposite direction first. The market will not pretend not to notice this contrast.
To sum up my view: After yesterday’s PPI release, the market raised expectations for a September rate hike. The current situation is that oil prices have broken above $100 and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. If core CPI comes in above expectations tonight, September rate-hike expectations will be raised another notch.#8月CPI今晚公布

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-11

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XiuHu_charts2026-09-10

FeaturedTo put it simply:
PPI is the Producer Price Index, while CPI is the Consumer Price Index.
The basic transmission chain is: rising raw material prices → higher factory production costs (PPI rises) → companies pass the costs on to retail prices → CPI rises!
Although this PPI reading came in at 5.4% year over year, part of it was caused by a low base during the same period last year.
Of course, today’s data, whether core, year over year, or month over month, all gave the same answer: inflationary stickiness is picking up.
PPI is a forward-looking indicator, while PCE is further downstream. Theref

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XiuHu_charts

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