The mainstream view remains bearish. As the weekend is coming to an end, U.S. stocks are expected to continue fluctuating at today’s open, while BTC will most likely move lower and may test 82000. However, this is not the arrival of a bull market; it is more of an oversold rebound. I believe this rebound is mainly due to the following factors:
First, oil prices are at a high level, and extremes tend to reverse. There are expectations that oil prices will decline, after geopolitical tensions drove them up to 101.6, followed by a gradual pullback.
Second, although the CLARITY Act did not pass, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has established a pilot program for putting U.S. stocks on-chain, which is a positive event.
Third, it is a short squeeze. Too many people went short amid various negative factors. Everyone was shorting, and once the negative news materialized, the market felt more reassured.
Therefore, with this rally reaching the current level, there is no need to enter with a heavy position except for short-term traders. There is really no need to chase the price higher, as the profit potential is limited. The risk-reward ratio at the current level is too low, while AI stocks in the U.S. stock market are continuously siphoning off funds. U.S. stocks are more volatile, and capital is constantly flowing into them. As funding costs rise later, will capital around the world be more willing to enter interest-free, risky crypto assets, or interest-bearing stocks with greater growth prospects? If the market subsequently enters a rate-hike cycle, the crypto market may continue to fluctuate.
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