September 14 Gold Morning Outlook
Last Friday, gold experienced sharp short-term volatility due to the CPI data. After the data was released, gold prices quickly retreated to $4,290 before surging, reaching a high of $4,402 and then coming under renewed pressure. Prices closed near $4,348 at the end of the session. The daily chart formed a small bullish candle with upper and lower shadows, showing intense contention between bulls and bears in the $4,300-$4,400 range.
On the news front, the market continued trading around expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields, and dollar strength. August CPI rose +0.4% month-on-month and +3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. It has already crossed the Federal Reserve’s “raise rates at the first sign of a rebound” threshold. Waller explicitly stated that “if the data is overheated, rate hikes will be considered,” creating direct pressure on non-yielding gold.
At the same time, Iran and the United States exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude oil briefly surged above $100. The market began to worry about imported inflation, while Treasury yields rose in tandem, with the 10-year yield breaking above 4.85% to reach a new high in nearly three years. The resonance among inflation expectations, oil prices, and yields also put pressure on gold.
Technically, after gold prices opened lower at $4,330 in the early session, the hourly chart formed a solid bullish candle, and short-term buying sentiment improved somewhat, but overhead pressure remains heavy. On the chart, gold prices formed a short-term resistance zone at $4,360-$4,375. If prices fail to break through this zone effectively, the upside will be limited, and the downtrend of range-bound declines from last week will likely continue during the day.
Today’s trading recommendation: During the Asian and European sessions, focus on the $4,360-$4,375 rebound resistance zone. If gold rebounds into this zone and encounters resistance, with the hourly chart showing signs of slowing gains, consider establishing short positions, with a stop-loss above $4,390 and targets in the $4,300-$4,280 area.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are highly volatile, and investment carries risks. Please exercise caution when entering the market.
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