LIUUR

This expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks by the U.S. Treasury looks like liquidity support on the surface, but in reality it resembles a trial run of yield curve management. Doubling the buyback size for 10- to 30-year Treasuries to $4 billion is not particularly large in absolute terms, but its signal is clear—the government is beginning to worry about losing control of long-term interest rates.
The 30-year Treasury yield had just broken above 5.33% the previous day, a 19-year high, and the Treasury immediately stepped in, with 10-year and 30-year yields falling by 5.3 and 8 basis points

Bitcoin is around $63,800 today, down approximately 0.34% from the previous day. It has been trading sideways within the narrow $62k-$66k range over the past few weeks.
ETF inflows and miner selling have precisely offset each other. No one won, and no one lost.
But the market cannot remain balanced forever.
Options-implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level since 2026. The DVOL index has dropped from 90 at the start of the year to around 35.
In plain English: the market is holding back a big move. The lower the volatility, the more explosive the breakout.
Three weeks of sideways trading

August 10 data showed that Bitcoin ETFs had a single-day net inflow of 1,731 BTC, worth approximately $112 million; Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of 29.9k ETH, worth approximately $56.78 million.
Bitcoin had a weekly net inflow of $799 million, while Ethereum had a weekly net inflow of $225 million.
Money is flowing into both.
But reports that Bitcoin ETFs had returned to net outflows also emerged at the same time—with outflows for several consecutive days, totaling more than $465 million.
On one hand, weekly net inflows hit a new high since April; on the other, there was a return

$BTC The U.S. crypto bill is stuck again!
The CLARITY Act’s progress has once again stalled.
This time, the resistance is coming from community banks.
Opposition from within the crypto industry is not the main factor.
The regulatory battle has entered its final tug-of-war stage!
The CLARITY Act has reportedly encountered resistance again as it advances through the Senate, with the core opposition coming from community banks. They worry that the digital asset regulatory arrangements in the bill could reshape the existing financial competitive landscape and affect traditional banking operations

U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls to Be Released Tonight as Market Awaits New Directional Signal
U.S. July nonfarm payrolls data will be released tonight, with market focus once again centered on changes in the labor market and whether they will affect the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy path.
In my view, the importance of nonfarm payrolls lies not only in the number of jobs added, but also in the resilience of the U.S. economy that it reflects. If employment remains strong, expectations for interest-rate cuts may decline, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could receive support; but if th

After rising to its peak, the momentum is exhausted; when it falls, it should move downward smoothly. In the early stage, the market gradually moved upward based on support from lower levels, with a steady rhythm of gains. It pushed all the way up, reaching a highest touch near the 63,700 zone. After the coin price hit the high point, the chasing-fomo funds inside the market quickly exited. The sell pressure caused by overhead resistance began to release continuously. The market completely reversed its upward move, starting a continuous pullback. The coin price kept fluctuating and falling; it

Kind of funny—the most standard case of “cutting a boat to look for a sword” in history: since the 30-year US Treasury yield is as high as in June 2007, does that mean we’re heading into an economic crisis?
More than one big shot compares the 30-year US Treasury yield with June 2027 and then says that last time it led to an economic crisis pretty quickly.
The problem is: even if both have a 5.27% US Treasury yield, in an environment with interest rates at 3.6% versus 5.25%, can they really be the same?
┈➤ 30-year US Treasury yield vs effective federal funds rate
The effective federal funds rat

The probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 67%,
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low since his first term,
Don’t make money on everything, don’t be greedy for more.
September 16 is the next time the Fed will hold an interest-rate decision,
on August 7 the U.S. unemployment rate, on August 12 the U.S. CPI inflation data,
no matter which one goes wrong, it will take the lives of the bulls.
So I won’t go long,
the final big drop in the crypto market very likely will happen once during August, September, and

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% unchanged in July, but three officials voted in favor of a rate hike. Market pricing for a rate hike in September once surged to 57%—until PCE turned negative for the first time in six years.
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → the U.S. dollar strengthens → BTC is suppressed.
This is why BTC didn’t rally—geopolitical conflict’s risk-hedging logic was completely overwhelmed by the macro logic of inflation and interest rates.
On July 30 and 31, oil prices fell consecutively. WTI lost the 81 mark, while Brent was

$BTC U.S. inflation finally cools down!
The PCE price index came in at 3.7%.
It fully meets market expectations!
Reaching the lowest level in nearly two months.
Rate-cut trades regain some breathing room!
U.S. June PCE price index year over year rose 3.7%, in line with expectations, down from May’s 4.1%; month over month fell 0.1%. The core PCE, which the Federal Reserve focuses on more, increased only 0.1% month over month, also below the expected 0.2%.
This data doesn’t completely solve inflation, but at least it shows prices are not continuing to worsen. Combined with second-quarter GDP gro

$BTC The U.S. sanctions an Iran crypto channel!
The U.S. Treasury is targeting Iran’s Bitcoin and crypto payment system.
Two Iran Revolutionary Guard-backed companies have been added to the sanctions list.
Digital assets are becoming a new battlefield in geopolitical conflicts!
The U.S. is stepping up tracking of crypto fund flows!
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against two companies associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), accusing them of evading sanctions through a maritime services system and using

Incredible: After Donald Trump returned to office, the money he made in the first two years is more than the total of the previous 60 years of his life.
Despite this, Trump told CNBC:
“I gave up my salary. I don’t take a salary. I’m the first president to do this.”
He added that taking on the presidency was for a “greater goal” than receiving the official presidential compensation.
Did Trump’s team unlock trading calls for the $TRUMP token just two days ago?
So this “no salary” thing still means they’re making money from the crypto world in total, right!
In these two years, the crypto market

Trump is really getting desperate this time! 😰
He lays it all out—if the Republicans in the Senate only have 53 seats, and if every Democrat votes against, ordinary bills can’t even pass, and the government might shut down directly! This isn’t a bluff; it’s a real, tangible risk.
The question is: how much impact will a government shutdown really have on our crypto market and the US stock market? Let’s dig into history and see the pattern.
In the short term: panic first, then divergence
Once the government stalls, tens of thousands of employees take unpaid leave, economic data stops updating,

Pakistan has just requested from the United States an exchange stabilization facility for $10 billion (exchange stabilization facility). This isn’t an ordinary loan—it’s an arrangement backed by the U.S. Treasury (Treasury), which has approved it for only two countries since 2002.
But the key is the background: they nearly defaulted in 2023. Even now, they still rely on rollovers with China and Saudi Arabia to keep foreign exchange reserves afloat. Now, they’re using their role in Iran negotiations to seek breathing room for the rupee.
Diplomacy isn’t charity. It’s a deal. And this deal co

【🚨 US stablecoin regulation collectively slips its deadline! GENIUS Act marks its full year—no rules implemented? 💥】
The GENIUS Act signed by Trump last year—
the US’s first federal stablecoin regulatory law—
it’s been a full year! 🎂
So what happened?
All 10 drafts are still on the table,
and zero have been finalized. 🚫
OCC, FDIC, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, NCUA—
the five agencies collectively drag their feet. 😴
👉 Did they slip the deadline—does that mean the bill is dead?
No—it's not dead! $SOL
It still takes effect on January 18, 2027,
but if it’s not finalized by S

$BTC The U.S. crypto bill enters showdown week!
The updated text has already been released.
It could be submitted for a Senate vote as early as this week!
A 60-vote threshold stands in the way.
All that’s left is persuading 7 Democrats!
On Friday, Senate Republicans released an updated version of the CLARITY crypto market structure bill; it comes after a meeting with Trump at the White House, exactly one year since the House passed the original version. If things move quickly, it could reach a full Senate vote this week. With only 3 effective working weeks left before the August recess, there

US military strikes + USDT freeze, 131 million said gone just gone
On the early morning of July 17 Beijing time, the US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran—its fifth consecutive night.
At the same time, the US Treasury added four crypto wallets linked to Iranian central banks to the sanctions list.
Tether moved immediately—freezing 131 million USDT.
Add the 344 million USDT frozen in April this year, and the total amount of Iran-related USDT frozen has reached about $475 million.
Hormuz, it’s really sealed.
US Central Command confirmed: it has forced 3 merchant ships attempting to

BTC’s U.S. crypto bill is set to move faster!
Trump will meet with senators on Thursday.
The Market Structure Act has entered a key push forward!
Regulatory boundaries may be redrawn.
This time, it’s not just a bullish catalyst!
Market news says Trump will meet with several senators on Thursday to discuss the crypto market structure bill. The core is to delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory jurisdictions, clearly defining token characteristics and who should oversee spot markets and trading platforms.⁠ Reuters
This meeting shows the White House is personally pushing to break the deadlock, but a me

This France 🇫🇷 vs Spain 🇪🇸 match is one of the most anticipated semifinal games of this World Cup. Both teams are in excellent form, and many media outlets have dubbed it an “early rehearsal of the final.”
Match analysis
French advantages
* Mbappé (Kylian Mbappé) remains the biggest weapon, with world-class speed and counter-attacking ability.
* France have been very balanced on both attack and defense this tournament; in the knockout stage so far, their defense has been solid, and their counter-attacking efficiency is extremely high.
* On the wings, Dembele and Olise both have one-on-one