#Market Watch: Today’s Analysis
The month of August got off to a “plunge” with Bitcoin dropping below $63k, and nearly 100k liquidations wiped out
On the morning of August 1, 2026, the crypto market hit a “black start” on the first trading day of August. Bitcoin fell below the $63k level, with a low near $62,400; Ethereum also slipped to around $1,850. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the whole network reached $362 million, and more than 90k investors were forced out in the selloff.
At the night of July 31, major crypto assets were broadly hit by a sharp drop. Bitcoin fell more than 3%, Ethereum dropped 3%, and Dogecoin slid 2.31%. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has jumped to about 82%, and macro headwinds have continued to pressure the valuations of risk assets. After a mild rebound for three consecutive days, the crypto market failed to hold the $65,000 level and kicked off August with a single bearish candle.
01 Market Overview: Bitcoin slips below $63k, Ethereum falls back to $1,850
As of the morning of August 1, Bitcoin saw a notable pullback. Data shows BTC/USD’s latest traded price is about $62,972-$62,980, down roughly 2.50%-2.73% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday range of $62,458-$65,258. Bitcoin has continued to decline since the July 31 high above $65,000, losing the $63,000 threshold. Ethereum also weakened in tandem. ETH/USD’s latest traded price is about $1,866-$1,867, down roughly 2.27%-2.30% in the past 24 hours, with an intraday range of $1,848-$1,933. Ethereum has broken below the $1,900 integer level; the 52-week low is around $1,385. Major altcoins are broadly down.
According to data from 东方财富 (Eastmoney), as of the evening of July 31, Solana fell 2.13% to $73.02, XRP fell 3.13% to $1.0597, Dogecoin fell 2.31% to $0.06894, and BNB fell 1.11% to $585.09.
02 Core drivers behind the decline: Macro headwinds plus technical resistance
First driver: Fed rate-hike expectations keep heating up, with September probability rising to 82%
At the macro level, the continued rise in rate-hike expectations is the most core variable pressuring the crypto market. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike is up to about 82%. The logic chain is clear: Bitcoin produces no cash flows, so its valuation relies entirely on expectations for future liquidity. Once risk-free interest rates rise, capital is drawn toward assets with real yield, and Bitcoin is naturally sold first. With ongoing international instability and geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, inflation pressure has returned, fully reversing the market’s earlier expectation of a rate-cut cycle in the first half of the year.
Second driver: Institutional capital continues to exit, and ETF inflow expectations are downgraded
Another major source of pressure is ongoing net outflows of capital. As of early July, Bitcoin spot ETFs had recorded net outflows for eight straight weeks. In Q2 2026, the total net redemptions of Bitcoin spot ETFs hit the largest quarterly outflow since the product launched in January 2024. Citigroup even took a pessimistic view, assuming that in the coming year there will be no record of net inflows into ETFs again. This extreme pessimism reflects institutions’ cautious stance on the crypto market’s medium-term outlook.
Third driver: Large-scale selling by miners worsens supply pressure In Q1 2026, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively sold more than 32,000 BTC—exceeding the total for all of 2025.
The root cause of the large-scale selling is that mining economics deteriorated sharply after the halving. After the April 2024 halving, the miner reward per block fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Some mining firms’ production costs can be as high as $78,000, while the spot price is only between $63,000 and $65,000.
Fourth driver: Technicals hit a wall at the key resistance around $66,300
On the technical front, Bitcoin started to pull back after failing to break through the historic resistance at $66,300. Analysts said that once Bitcoin was rejected at this level, it opened the space for a downside test of the $60,800-$58,300 support area. Ethereum also turned lower after the $1,985 resistance level, with target supports pointing to $1,785, $1,700, and $1,535.
03 Liquidation storm: $362 million wiped out, and more than 90k get forced out
Over the past 24 hours, as the market broadly plunged, chase positions were hit by large-scale liquidation. According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the entire network reached $362 million, including $236 million liquidated from long positions and $126 million liquidated from short positions. Longs were the worst affected side in this selloff. Globally, more than 90k investors were forced to close.
Key liquidation trigger zones: CoinGlass data shows that if Bitcoin falls below $59,951, the cumulative liquidation strength of longs on major CEXs would reach $951 million; conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $66,155, cumulative liquidation strength of shorts would reach $63k. The $59,951-$66,155 range is the market’s most critical “liquidation trigger point” right now.
04 Technical analysis: $63,000 becomes a new resistance, and the $60k level faces a test
Bitcoin (BTC) current price: about $62,970-$62,980 Core support: $62,458 (intraday low); $60,800 (next support indicated by technical analysis); $59,951 (a break below triggers $951 million long liquidation) Resistance above: $63,800-$64,500 (short-term rebound resistance); $65,000 (July rebound high); $66,155 (break triggers $100k short liquidation) Technical structure: After being rejected at the key resistance around $66,300, Bitcoin continued to fall, dropping more than 3%. The 4-hour timeframe shows a clear “rally-failure and pullback” structure, with short-term bearish momentum dominant. Analysts believe that failing to break the historic resistance opens room for a retracement toward the $60,800-$58,300 area.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current price: about $1,866-$1,867 Core support: $1,848 (intraday low); $1,785 (next support indicated by technical analysis); $1,700 (strong support) Resistance above: $1,900 (already broken, now resistance); $1,950-$1,985 (strong resistance zone) Technical structure: Ethereum turned downward after starting from the $1,985 resistance level, with the daily close below $1,900. Analysts say that if it cannot hold $1,848, downside momentum could accelerate, targeting the $1,785 even the $1,700-$1,535 range.
Seasonal signals worth watching
Despite near-term pressure, the ETH/BTC ratio has shown signals worth noting. In the first seven months of 2026, ETH/BTC was negative in five months, down about 14.3% year-to-date, but as of July it is +8.3%. Based on historical seasonal data, August is the second-strongest month for ETH performance, with a median of +6.9% and an ETH outperformance rate of 60%. If ETH/BTC closes higher in July and the gain exceeds 5%, August historically tends to deliver positive returns as well. But the seasonal window closes starting in September—September’s median is -8.1%, October’s median is -12.0%, and the ETH outperformance rate drops to only 20%.
05 Outlook: The $60k level becomes August’s key line of defense
In the short term, August’s first trading day’s plunge breaks the prior three-day mild rebound rhythm. The strength of support below $63,000 is the key point to watch. If it holds the $62,458 intraday low, the market may enter a consolidation and repair phase in the $62,000-$64,000 range; if it breaks below, $62,000 and even $60,000 will face a test. For Ethereum, $1,848 is the first line of defense in the short run; if that level fails, the focus shifts to the $1,785-$1,700 range.
In the medium term, the macro headwind of a rising September rate-hike probability to 82% remains the market’s biggest uncertainty. Bitcoin has closed lower for two consecutive quarters—similar situations have only happened three times in history (2014, 2019, and 2022). Whether history can break this pattern depends on whether the macro environment improves at the margin.
On August’s first trading day, the crypto market saw a significant pullback under the double squeeze of macro headwinds and technical resistance. Bitcoin fell from above $65,000 to below $63,000, while Ethereum broke below $1,900. More than 90k investors were forced to liquidate during last night’s plunge, and $362 million was wiped out. $63,000 (BTC) and $1,850 (ETH) have become the most critical short-term defense lines for the start of August—holding would keep the choppy range intact; losing would put $60,000 and $1,700 under pressure. The Fed rate-hike outlook, selling pressure from miners, and technical resistance at $66,300 together form three layers of headwind suppressing the market. Until macro signals become clearer, staying cautious and tightly controlling positions remains the rational choice to protect principal.
The month of August got off to a “plunge” with Bitcoin dropping below $63k, and nearly 100k liquidations wiped out
On the morning of August 1, 2026, the crypto market hit a “black start” on the first trading day of August. Bitcoin fell below the $63k level, with a low near $62,400; Ethereum also slipped to around $1,850. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the whole network reached $362 million, and more than 90k investors were forced out in the selloff.
At the night of July 31, major crypto assets were broadly hit by a sharp drop. Bitcoin fell more than 3%, Ethereum dropped 3%, and Dogecoin slid 2.31%. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has jumped to about 82%, and macro headwinds have continued to pressure the valuations of risk assets. After a mild rebound for three consecutive days, the crypto market failed to hold the $65,000 level and kicked off August with a single bearish candle.
01 Market Overview: Bitcoin slips below $63k, Ethereum falls back to $1,850
As of the morning of August 1, Bitcoin saw a notable pullback. Data shows BTC/USD’s latest traded price is about $62,972-$62,980, down roughly 2.50%-2.73% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday range of $62,458-$65,258. Bitcoin has continued to decline since the July 31 high above $65,000, losing the $63,000 threshold. Ethereum also weakened in tandem. ETH/USD’s latest traded price is about $1,866-$1,867, down roughly 2.27%-2.30% in the past 24 hours, with an intraday range of $1,848-$1,933. Ethereum has broken below the $1,900 integer level; the 52-week low is around $1,385. Major altcoins are broadly down.
According to data from 东方财富 (Eastmoney), as of the evening of July 31, Solana fell 2.13% to $73.02, XRP fell 3.13% to $1.0597, Dogecoin fell 2.31% to $0.06894, and BNB fell 1.11% to $585.09.
02 Core drivers behind the decline: Macro headwinds plus technical resistance
First driver: Fed rate-hike expectations keep heating up, with September probability rising to 82%
At the macro level, the continued rise in rate-hike expectations is the most core variable pressuring the crypto market. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike is up to about 82%. The logic chain is clear: Bitcoin produces no cash flows, so its valuation relies entirely on expectations for future liquidity. Once risk-free interest rates rise, capital is drawn toward assets with real yield, and Bitcoin is naturally sold first. With ongoing international instability and geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices, inflation pressure has returned, fully reversing the market’s earlier expectation of a rate-cut cycle in the first half of the year.
Second driver: Institutional capital continues to exit, and ETF inflow expectations are downgraded
Another major source of pressure is ongoing net outflows of capital. As of early July, Bitcoin spot ETFs had recorded net outflows for eight straight weeks. In Q2 2026, the total net redemptions of Bitcoin spot ETFs hit the largest quarterly outflow since the product launched in January 2024. Citigroup even took a pessimistic view, assuming that in the coming year there will be no record of net inflows into ETFs again. This extreme pessimism reflects institutions’ cautious stance on the crypto market’s medium-term outlook.
Third driver: Large-scale selling by miners worsens supply pressure In Q1 2026, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively sold more than 32,000 BTC—exceeding the total for all of 2025.
The root cause of the large-scale selling is that mining economics deteriorated sharply after the halving. After the April 2024 halving, the miner reward per block fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Some mining firms’ production costs can be as high as $78,000, while the spot price is only between $63,000 and $65,000.
Fourth driver: Technicals hit a wall at the key resistance around $66,300
On the technical front, Bitcoin started to pull back after failing to break through the historic resistance at $66,300. Analysts said that once Bitcoin was rejected at this level, it opened the space for a downside test of the $60,800-$58,300 support area. Ethereum also turned lower after the $1,985 resistance level, with target supports pointing to $1,785, $1,700, and $1,535.
03 Liquidation storm: $362 million wiped out, and more than 90k get forced out
Over the past 24 hours, as the market broadly plunged, chase positions were hit by large-scale liquidation. According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the entire network reached $362 million, including $236 million liquidated from long positions and $126 million liquidated from short positions. Longs were the worst affected side in this selloff. Globally, more than 90k investors were forced to close.
Key liquidation trigger zones: CoinGlass data shows that if Bitcoin falls below $59,951, the cumulative liquidation strength of longs on major CEXs would reach $951 million; conversely, if Bitcoin breaks above $66,155, cumulative liquidation strength of shorts would reach $63k. The $59,951-$66,155 range is the market’s most critical “liquidation trigger point” right now.
04 Technical analysis: $63,000 becomes a new resistance, and the $60k level faces a test
Bitcoin (BTC) current price: about $62,970-$62,980 Core support: $62,458 (intraday low); $60,800 (next support indicated by technical analysis); $59,951 (a break below triggers $951 million long liquidation) Resistance above: $63,800-$64,500 (short-term rebound resistance); $65,000 (July rebound high); $66,155 (break triggers $100k short liquidation) Technical structure: After being rejected at the key resistance around $66,300, Bitcoin continued to fall, dropping more than 3%. The 4-hour timeframe shows a clear “rally-failure and pullback” structure, with short-term bearish momentum dominant. Analysts believe that failing to break the historic resistance opens room for a retracement toward the $60,800-$58,300 area.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current price: about $1,866-$1,867 Core support: $1,848 (intraday low); $1,785 (next support indicated by technical analysis); $1,700 (strong support) Resistance above: $1,900 (already broken, now resistance); $1,950-$1,985 (strong resistance zone) Technical structure: Ethereum turned downward after starting from the $1,985 resistance level, with the daily close below $1,900. Analysts say that if it cannot hold $1,848, downside momentum could accelerate, targeting the $1,785 even the $1,700-$1,535 range.
Seasonal signals worth watching
Despite near-term pressure, the ETH/BTC ratio has shown signals worth noting. In the first seven months of 2026, ETH/BTC was negative in five months, down about 14.3% year-to-date, but as of July it is +8.3%. Based on historical seasonal data, August is the second-strongest month for ETH performance, with a median of +6.9% and an ETH outperformance rate of 60%. If ETH/BTC closes higher in July and the gain exceeds 5%, August historically tends to deliver positive returns as well. But the seasonal window closes starting in September—September’s median is -8.1%, October’s median is -12.0%, and the ETH outperformance rate drops to only 20%.
05 Outlook: The $60k level becomes August’s key line of defense
In the short term, August’s first trading day’s plunge breaks the prior three-day mild rebound rhythm. The strength of support below $63,000 is the key point to watch. If it holds the $62,458 intraday low, the market may enter a consolidation and repair phase in the $62,000-$64,000 range; if it breaks below, $62,000 and even $60,000 will face a test. For Ethereum, $1,848 is the first line of defense in the short run; if that level fails, the focus shifts to the $1,785-$1,700 range.
In the medium term, the macro headwind of a rising September rate-hike probability to 82% remains the market’s biggest uncertainty. Bitcoin has closed lower for two consecutive quarters—similar situations have only happened three times in history (2014, 2019, and 2022). Whether history can break this pattern depends on whether the macro environment improves at the margin.
On August’s first trading day, the crypto market saw a significant pullback under the double squeeze of macro headwinds and technical resistance. Bitcoin fell from above $65,000 to below $63,000, while Ethereum broke below $1,900. More than 90k investors were forced to liquidate during last night’s plunge, and $362 million was wiped out. $63,000 (BTC) and $1,850 (ETH) have become the most critical short-term defense lines for the start of August—holding would keep the choppy range intact; losing would put $60,000 and $1,700 under pressure. The Fed rate-hike outlook, selling pressure from miners, and technical resistance at $66,300 together form three layers of headwind suppressing the market. Until macro signals become clearer, staying cautious and tightly controlling positions remains the rational choice to protect principal.
