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Why Market Probability Matters in Event Contracts
One thing I pay close attention to when looking at an Event Contract is the market probability.
For example, if an Event Contract shows a 70% probability for one outcome, I would not simply think, “70% means it will definitely happen.” Instead, I see it as the market’s current expectation based on the information and activity available at that moment.
This is what makes probability interesting. A 70% probability still means there is a possibility that the other outcome happens. The market can also change its expectation as new information arriv
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A Comeback Diary: From 1,000U to A8
1,000 Challenge to 10 Million|Day 1

Initial futures capital: $1,000
Current total assets: $4,850
Cumulative withdrawals: $1,650
There is no eternal god in the futures market, nor any undefeated general who wins every battle!
Remember: Trading futures ultimately comes down to betting on probabilities.
Every futures trade is a bet on probability. Strictly speaking, it means using a small stop-loss to pursue large profits.
There is no absolutely safe entry, only relatively safe ones, so stop-losses must be strictly observed on every trade.
L
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#Gate7DayNetInflowsTop3
Capital is telling an interesting story around Gate. 👀
Gate recorded $194.09M in net inflows over 24 hours on August 26, ranking among the global top 3 CEXs. The next day, another $20.54M in net inflows placed Gate #2 globally, based on DeFiLlama data cited by Gate.
One big inflow can be a spike. But strong inflows across multiple days are much more interesting. 📈
For me, the key point is liquidity. Continued capital movement can support higher trading activity, stronger market participation and potentially deeper liquidity. Of course, inflows alone don't guarantee p
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Live trading - Analysis Crypto market
gate liveLIVE
32
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I only meant to mooch a breakfast, but the market ended up serving me six months’ worth of dumplings. When I opened the charts this morning, the market looked completely different from the move I had imagined before going to bed a few days ago—it jolted me wide awake. I watched the dip in the middle of the night for a long time but didn’t act, waiting for it to reveal its direction on its own.
$OKB The bottom consolidated sideways for an entire day. I kept watching the trading volume; with the pullback on declining volume holding above support, I judged it to be a shakeout rather than distribu
OKB3.68%
BTC0.68%
ADA0.55%
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The short position I set a few days ago before bed had already made me too embarrassed to take a screenshot by the time I woke up. 😏 $SKYAI was surging pretty enthusiastically at the time, but the volume simply failed to keep up, with volume continuously shrinking at the highs—isn't this a classic sign of a weak rebound? I directly placed a short order at 0.21986 as planned. When I checked the market after lunch, the price had already drifted down to 0.05383, with floating profits of +1851.9%; those who got on board should have literally woken up laughing. The buildup was truly tedious, but t
SKYAI1.38%
ADA0.55%
BTC0.68%
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$ENA
#ENASurgesOver15%InADay
Ethena (ENA/USDT) has moved into a much more important technical zone, with ENA currently trading near $0.16 USDT. The sharp difference from the earlier $0.275–$0.285 area means the market structure needs to be reassessed rather than simply assuming the previous bullish setup remains intact.
Live Market Statistics
Current Price: ~$0.16 USDT
Recent Reference Range: ~$0.15–$0.17 USDT
Market Capitalization: Previously around ~$1.48B during the higher-price snapshot
Circulating Supply: ~5.28B ENA
Maximum Supply: 15B ENA
At ~$0.16, ENA is trading substantially below t
ENA1.79%
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Falcon_Official
#ENASurgesOver15%InADay
$ENA
ENA’s 15%+ Surge: Momentum Is Back, But Can $0.15 Hold?
Ethena’s ENA has suddenly returned to the spotlight. The token’s latest move of more than 15% in a day comes as the market reprices Ethena’s token economics and the potential connection between protocol revenue and ENA demand. With ENA around the $0.15 area, the move is no longer just about short-term momentum.
The latest catalyst is Ethena’s proposed tokenomics overhaul. The Ethena Foundation has announced changes aimed at reducing future investor-unlock pressure, while governance is considering mechanisms to direct protocol revenue toward ENA buybacks. The proposal is designed to make ENA’s value capture more directly connected to the growth of the Ethena ecosystem.
That helps explain why traders reacted so aggressively.
What the 15%+ move is really saying
ENA had spent much of its recent trading history under pressure from supply concerns. The latest announcement changes that narrative: instead of focusing only on future token releases, the market is now considering whether reduced unlock pressure plus potential buybacks could create a stronger demand/supply balance.
Recent reporting shows ENA had roughly doubled from around $0.08 to the $0.16–$0.19 region within a short period, demonstrating how quickly sentiment changed once the tokenomics story gained traction.
At approximately $0.15, however, the next move is not guaranteed.
The technical battle
The $0.15 level is now an important psychological area.
If ENA can hold above $0.15 after the initial surge, buyers could attempt to reclaim the $0.16–$0.17 zone. A sustained break above that region would indicate that the market is accepting the higher valuation rather than simply chasing the first spike.
On the other hand, losing $0.15 after such a rapid rally would signal profit-taking. The $0.14 area becomes the first downside level to monitor, followed by the $0.13–$0.135 region.
Volume is equally important. Current market data shows ENA trading with roughly $1 billion-plus in daily volume, meaning the latest move is occurring alongside substantial market participation rather than in an extremely thin market.
Bull vs Bear
Bull setup: ENA holds $0.15, volume remains elevated, and buyers push through $0.17. If the buyback proposal gains support while Ethena continues growing its underlying business, the market could continue assigning a premium to ENA.
Bear setup: The 15%+ jump attracts heavy profit-taking, ENA falls below $0.15 and volume starts accompanying selling instead of buying. In that case, $0.14 and then $0.13 become important downside tests.
There is also a key fundamental distinction: the proposed buyback mechanism is a governance proposal, not a guarantee that future ENA demand will automatically increase. The market still needs to see actual protocol growth and successful implementation.
The most interesting part of the ENA rally is not simply the percentage gain.
It is the change in the market narrative.
ENA is moving from a token heavily associated with unlock-related supply pressure toward a story involving potential revenue-based value capture and reduced future investor selling pressure. That is a meaningful shift, but the price now has to prove that the new narrative can survive after the initial excitement fades.
At $0.15, I would watch one level above everything else:
Hold $0.15 → bullish momentum remains alive.
Break $0.17 → continuation signal strengthens.
Lose $0.14 → correction risk increases.
The 15% surge got ENA back on traders’ radar. The next move will determine whether this is simply a powerful rebound or the beginning of a much larger repricing. @Gate_Square
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Venüs_:
To The Moon 🌕
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🇧🇷 Brazil is tightening crypto security, not banning it.
The Central Bank is launching real-time threat alerts to track suspicious flows, with major exchanges expected to integrate soon.
New rules will also add stricter checks on large transfers to foreign platforms and self-custody wallets.
bitcoin:native and $USDT transfers could face closer scrutiny as Brazil pushes for a safer, more transparent crypto ecosystem.
BTC0.65%
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$4 Signal】Long + buy the 1H pullback / Order book depth imbalance
$4 Current price 0.019332. The 1H candle formed a long upper wick reaching 0.0218 before pulling back, while the 4H Bollinger upper band at 0.0192 was decisively broken. Bid depth accounts for 86.99%, with a Bid/Ask depth ratio of 14.37 and extremely thick buy orders below. RSI is 59.81 on 1H and 85.21 on 4H; 1H still has room, while 4H is overbought and awaiting digestion. The 4H MACD histogram is expanding, while the 1H histogram has returned to zero, putting short-term momentum at a critical juncture. The funding rate is 0.0
450.87%
BTC0.65%
ETH0.91%
SOL1.52%
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I can’t believe we’ve lost to Brighton five times in a row. WTF 😭
Omo, if una no fit beat Brighton today, make una kukuma just dey una house jeje😂
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At first, people thought Bull was just a joke
0.029-.0.08 took only two days
牛来70.00%
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Sky,DamnIt.:
Next week, U.S. stocks will be focused on just two things: whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and whether the tech bigwigs made money. Just waiting for the results! 🍿
#美股 # Federal Reserve #S&P500
#TopFiveLeaguesPreMatchPredictor
#Top5LeaguesPredictor ⚽🔥
My Round 12 Predictions:
🔹 Real Madrid 3–1 Málaga
Madrid should control the match with their attacking quality and home advantage, but Málaga could still find a goal on the counter.
🔹 Manchester United 3–1 Ipswich Town
United have the stronger squad and should create more chances at home. Ipswich can be competitive, but I expect United’s quality to show.
🔹 Monaco 1–1 Marseille
This looks like the closest matchup. Both teams have enough attacking strength to score, and a hard-fought draw seems possible.
🎯 My most confident pick: Re
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2In1:
To The Moon 🌕
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Crypto panic index falls back to 68, market still in ‘greed’.
gate liveLIVE
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#ENASurgesOver15%InADay
ENA continues to hold the gains that followed the tokenomics overhaul. The Ethena Foundation ended monthly VC unlocks and proposed that 95 percent of protocol revenue be directed to buybacks. The market responded with a more than 15 percent rally that took price to the 0.17 area, and the daily chart is now consolidating those gains. Understanding the next phase requires looking at the levels, the momentum, and the new tokenomics context step by step.
Price closed at 0.16166 after a 1.28 percent advance. The 9-period MA rests at 0.15739 and the 50-period MA is much lowe
ENA1.79%
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Venüs_:
To The Moon 🌕
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Shattering the Caucasian Eagles’ myth, last night’s #UFCShanghai had me excited all night!
Who said Yadong was a gatekeeper for the top five! What about now! Who else!!!
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next month, but one day I will be champion, I promise.
#宋亚东 #China Power #世界第三 #UFC
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🔥@Sunday Free Strategy Levels👇
🔥@Long Entry Levels (the second entry level + short entry level + take-profit level are in the pinned subscription post; both long- and short-term spot setups are also in the pinned post)
===========
77300 long, 77000 long, Sun 75600
2415 long, 2395 long, stop-loss 2345
#Gate7天净流入全球Top3
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#晒出我的持仓收益 The US Dollar Index fluctuated and edged higher this week. The US July PCE data released on Wednesday reinforced expectations that inflation remains sticky, while expectations for a rate hike in September edged up; concerns over the dollar’s creditworthiness triggered by US Treasury repo operations limited the dollar’s gains. On Friday, Wash emphasized at Jackson Hole that achieving the inflation target was the top priority. The market interpreted this as a hawkish signal, sending the dollar sharply higher in the short term. It closed at 99.69, up 0.85% this week.
Analysis suggests t
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ETH_USDT
Long
Cross 200X
Return %
+98.76%
Entry Price(USDT)
2,442.06
Mark Price(USDT)
2,455.93
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Genius post-2000s AI-made masterpiece “Havoc in Heaven”
Many netizens say its filmmaking level is no worse than Niu Lai
And is even better than Niu Lai
You can watch the movie yourself—the visual effects are truly explosive
Sun Xiaosheng + Niu Lai: top-tier storytelling
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Focused on gold trading analysis. Thank you for your support and companionship.
Copy the link below into your browser to subscribe. 🔽
(Apple devices require a VPN accelerator.)
https://www.gate.com/profile/%E9%B9%8F%E5%85%先%E7%94%9F
GLDX0.22%
PAXG0.10%
XAU0.13%
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#GateStockInsightsChallenge
Put your market knowledge to the test with the Gate Stock Insights Challenge! Explore market trends, share your insights, and stay connected with the latest developments in the world of stocks and finance. 💡📊
A great opportunity to learn, analyze, and engage with the trading community while expanding your market perspective. Stay informed, share your views, and take the challenge! 🔥
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Venüs_:
LFG 🔥
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