pedma

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Active for: 3.4y
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after the roller coasters i went through last year, im noticing in myself a decreased appetite for risk
im still up 70%+ ytd, not that i missed out, but couldve been better
(probably funny running at 40% vol, having 90%+ of my net worth in my systems in crypto, saying my risk appetite is down)
but i was looking at decent opps months before the move like pump, lit, hype (i did buy some but lower size than i wanted), had a good thesis for them and couldve gotten size, but didn't.
didn't because I kinda hid behind the mantra "let my systems handle it" kinda thing
maybe that's a good thing, maybe
PUMP1.37%
LIT2.90%
HYPE1.06%
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one habit that has helped me stay focused on the most important work is sitting on sundays for about 1h-2h, thinking and writing out, what needs to get done in line with a ranking i set.
this rank is measured by what affects the business the most eg. income, security, efficiency, etc.
my problem before this was that when i didnt have a set target that i carefully considered and thought through, id be easily taken in all different kinds of direction.
im very curious and i like to try new stuff that i find interesting
oh today theres these memes being traded on RH? lets see what we can do there
RH-2.47%
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opus has become really sloppy. i have to be constantly countering its assessments, checking every assumption. defaulting to fable, but then that consumes tons of tokens. so using now codex+CC seems to be the default. im having a really hard time trusting anything coming off opus at least for more complex stuff.
CODEX-9.81%
CC-2.48%
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what i have come to realize is that i can no longer, if i expect significant growth, to run this operation as a 1-man shop
its been more than a month, probably 2 now, that ive worked on a new feature, explored a new trade, etc
all my time is spent on infra, which lets face it, is not my forte
my first hire will be someone i trust, that can handle all the infra stuff for me, while i focus on pushing new trades through the pipeline
the issue was always funding, a person with the skills and trust I require, wont be cheap
but i can afford it now
also im onboarding new opportunities that i didnt th
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woke up today excited to get to work
spilled my entire cup of coffee on my pc
spent my morning fixing it
GM
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i cannot express how much hate i have for Portuguese company's and government websites
what a dreadful experience
like id have to have to make an effort to be this bad
i would have to go out of my way to cause this pain to the user
it must be on purpose
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im a systems guy. but waking up to this 3 days in a row is kinda a vibe ya know. the thing that attracted us to crypto in the first place. lets see if it sticks form a while. nothing changed, its all a grift anyways. but ya know, nostalgy feels nice sometimes.
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a lot to do
GM
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learning about tailscale today
late i know, but i get there
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one of the reasons for the increase of output last week was me relaxing the controls over the agents
I was much more willing to let it work on a full task from beginning-end without my intervention, allowing me to target more stuff, but more superficially
i found a decent chunk of bugs that were introduced by some of these changes
that could be a skill issue on my part in setting strict rules for these agents, but also there's other risks when you let them roam free
for example when there's a nerf of a model, you're kinda basing your assumptions off past behavior that is no longer there
and i
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really good day yesterday
what im more excited about though is that my leverage was cut in half from almost 5x
i was getting a bit concerned about the different risks that could blow on my face, although being "mkt neutral"
risks arent ignored, noted and will look into it
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waking up to fix undocumented api changes at 2 am
gm
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im up for the day
although
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i began using a lot more the auto feature in CC
i am not sure i will keep doing that as im detecting a lot more dumb errors in the code base
it may not be just because of the functionality but a combination of OPUS apparently going dumber and also ME not reading the logic + code as i was before when i was manually accepting
maybe my agentic work has gaps due to my own skill issue.
but i feel like i need to understand the output
even if that means slowing me down
i cant just outsource the thinking process to these machines, for the most part
obv execution has a level of thinking that i am outso
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you guys were right, having codex check claude's work is very useful
already caught a decent logic flaw on fable output
nothing serious, but something that could break the audit trail of an order in a future tail event
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some time off from the beta mines
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always reassuring when opus just answers:
"I made it up"
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i keep strict versioning of the engines that drive target exposures for my portfolio
obviously I improve it over time, but i dont want to be working on the engine as the live one is issuing exposures right
also i want the new engine to be tested over a few weeks/months depending on the severity of the rework
but once i want to migrate it to live, i have this template , all i have to do is call the agent and issue the migration
a) old version is archived (for audit purposes)
b) new working version is created
c) full migration to live
its pretty accurate because overtime this template grew bigge
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if you document all changes to your codebase , the next time you work on something you already did in the past, the agent can get context from it (if its appropriately tagged and categorized) and warn you about potential pitfalls that we already went through. useful because it makes it harder to run into similar problems.
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strategy creation/ideation should be as pain free as possible so that I can churn through ideas without the pain of having to make 100 different decisions before i get to a result
a) data ingestion/mapping/cleaning (cross venue)
b) signal measurement
c) backtest (cross venues)
d) result evaluation
e) shipping (fairly efficient thus far)
how can i make it as simple as possible. almost just having to build the feature and the output being a seamless click away
prob enough friction to ensure you aint just building slop generating machine right, you have to keep the principles in which your busine
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