What Is Overfitting? Why Can More Perfect Parameters Make a Strategy More Fragile?
A trading strategy may perform almost perfectly in historical backtests, with a high win rate, a smooth returns curve, and a very small maximum drawdown. It may seem to have found a market pattern. But once it enters the live market, it may suffer frequent losses. One important reason behind this phenomenon is overfitting.
First, what is overfitting?
Simply put, it means a strategy has adapted too closely to specific fluctuations and random events in historical data, without truly identifying patterns that can c

US oil majors $XOM and $CVX both beat analyst expectations for quarterly profit on Friday, as soaring refining margins increased earnings from their fuel-making businesses - which typically have smaller profits - to rival the upstream segments.

$INTC Bank of America downgraded Intel to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $100 from $145 in a note Friday, telling investors that a sharp drop in PC shipments and supply constraints have pushed out the chipmaker’s turnaround.
The downgrade follows Intel's third-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, with the firm reporting adjusted earnings of $0.52 per share, beating analyst estimates of $0.40. Revenue rose 21% year over year to $16.5 billion, slightly above consensus of $16.48 billion. However, the stock is down more than 25% premarket on Friday, with the outlook conside

I've had my fill this week; maybe there just hasn't been much news, and Trump hasn't said anything crazy either. It's just that after my livestream got taken down yesterday, it seems like I've been throttled... So annoying #Gate24小时净流入Top2

#现货黄金跌破4000美元 Gold falls to 3979: Is this a “dip to pick people up” or is the “engine about to stall”?
Spot gold hit an intraday low of $3979.86 today, once again slipping below the key $4000 mark. Since October began, gold has fallen more than 4%, putting it on track for a second consecutive monthly decline. Is this the start of a temporary downtrend?
Let’s turn over the cards on the table one by one.
What’s really weighing on gold is the December rate-hike outlook
The Federal Reserve met on October 28. It left rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%. But the vote was 10-2, with two officials directly

One thing we rarely consider when setting up a crypto wallet is how easily its security can adapt to future threats.
What happens when the cryptographic methods we rely on today need to be replaced?
@Starknet has an interesting approach to this through native account abstraction.
Since each Starknet account is a smart contract, its transaction authorization logic can be customized without requiring the entire network to upgrade.
Here’s why that matters:
→ Wallets can adopt different signature verification methods.
→ Users can potentially upgrade security without changing their account address

Billionaires trolling each other like it's just another day… 🙃🍿🙃

Why can losses still exceed expectations after a stop-loss is triggered?
Many traders believe that setting a stop-loss is enough to keep losses within a predetermined range. But during periods of sharp volatility in crypto markets, the stop-loss trigger price is not necessarily the final execution price. Understanding the difference is key to managing risk effectively.
First, the stop price is not the execution price.
Take a common stop-market order, for example. Once the market price reaches the trigger condition, the system submits a market order, which is filled at the prices available at t

Don't rush to buy the dip, $ETH the risks in this market cycle are far from over 🔥
Last night's drop was mainly caused by the hacking incident, but the market has its own reasons too: the November interest-rate outlook is already set, and a new rate-hiking cycle is coming in December
Many people are asking $ETH whether it's time to buy the dip. Sister Xing doesn't agree for now
First, looking at Chart 1, short positions are concentrated at 2260, with orders clustered around that level and bearish pressure concentrated there. But the bulls are clearly divided, with orders scattered widely. A

How can maximum drawdown be used to assess a trading strategy’s true risk?
Even if a trading strategy is profitable over the long term, that does not mean its risk is necessarily low. If an account has suffered a steep decline from its peak, traders must contend with shrinking capital, psychological pressure, and the difficulty of recovery. Maximum drawdown is an important metric for measuring this risk.
First, what is maximum drawdown?
Maximum drawdown is the largest percentage decline in an account’s value from a historical peak to a subsequent low over a given period. For example, if an acc

$XMR parabola is still intact
With all the hacks happening right now, XMR could pull a rally

$BTC Spot-Buying-the-Dip Thesis
On October 30, Bitcoin was hit by panic selling and dumped to around 76,000 after BTC funds at an exchange were stolen.
Don’t rush into buying the dip with futures right now. I’m more inclined to build a spot position. On the weekly chart, around 76,000 is near support from the EMA21 and EMA25. It’s also near support from the daily EMA169 and EMA144.
So there’s nothing wrong with building a spot position. The original intention is to help those who missed buying the dip around 60,000 earlier.
Looking at the bottoming process in the previous bear market, the bull

Weak. $ONDO is currently at 0.3883. The four-hour trend is weak and RSI has entered a relatively cool zone, but the one-hour RSI remains near neutral, so short-term momentum has not deteriorated in tandem. Most of the day's decline came earlier, and the price is now just drifting slowly near the lows, with no fresh selling follow-through. If short-term RSI continues to fall while volume still fails to expand, can this weakness still be considered a continuation of the trend? My view: the direction is weak, but fading short-term momentum means the decline is losing acceleration. True confirmati

bitcoin:native
My conviction for $90k was based on prior range break.
Just made sense to test upper range before any major rejection.
However it seems it was a big deviation as we find ourselves back in previous range and now susceptible for lower.

Compounding 1,000 to 100k U, another 99 has already been credited today

Because they know @ will handle everything.

$SUI is now at its yearly support
This is the bid zone for the long term

$GT remains at risk of further weakness. Selling pressure persists following a sharp decline. The price is currently consolidating around 9.40, but any rebound appears weak. Resistance: 9.45–9.56 Support: 9.33–9.20 Conclusion: There is potential for a decline to test the 9.33–9.20 range. A breakout above 9.56 would strengthen the prospects for a rebound.
Note: Crypto and stock transactions carry the risk of loss. Please conduct your own research (DYOR) before trading. This information is for general purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation, recommendation, or investment advice. Yo