AlaouiCapital

A Head & Shoulders isn’t bearish because of its name.
It’s bearish because of the math.
If the neckline breaks on $BTC, the expected move is often equal to the distance from the head to the neckline.
In this case:
Neckline: $76K
Projected target: $25K
Potential move: -67%
The pattern is simple.
If it can’t reclaim that level, every rally becomes a question instead of an answer.
Markets don’t care where you bought. They care where liquidity sits.

STRONGEST BITCOIN ALWAYS SOUND LIKE THIS
- Buy.
- Hold.
- Never sell.
Strategy just added a fourth step.
Monetize when necessary.
Up to $1.25B in $BTC can be monetized under the new framework.
No BTC has been sold just rule changed.
But the company that never planned to sell now has a plan if it does.

Iran and the U.S. could be heading back to the table.
President Trump says a meeting has been scheduled for tomorrow in Doha.
This came Precisely before U.S. markets open.
Unbelievable.
Unfortunately we have been through this SEVERAL times.
No more meetings, need conclusions.

🇺🇸 THE U.S. DOLLAR IS MAKING A COMEBACK.
It is on track for its best month in nearly a year.
June gains have reached 2.5%, fueled by rising Gulf tensions and growing demand for safe-haven assets.
Now, all eyes turn to the upcoming U.S. jobs report.
Strong dollar usually means risk assets face a tougher short-term environment.
Worth watching.

ETHEREUM JUST LOST ITS PLACE.
$ETH is no longer a top 100 asset by global market cap.
Think about it once.
The chain that sparked DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts is now ranked behind 100 other global assets.
Markets don’t care about legacy, they care about value.
Nothing stays on top forever.

🇨🇳TWO MAJOR CHINESE HEDGE FUNDS ARE TURNING CAUTIOUS ON AI.
According to Bloomberg, Wealspring Asset says AI stocks have entered “super bubble” territory and valuations have become detached from reality.
Banxia Investment believes the trigger has already appeared, pointing to slowing growth at leading AI companies and rising competition.
The uptake is still high.
It will probably burst when earnings fail to meet expectations
The AI trade may be entering a very different phase.
Should we be worried?

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS BACK IN TALKS AGAIN.
Reports suggest Oman may charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz for security.
If that becomes reality, global trade gets more expensive.
Markets could be underestimating what is coming next, the conflict may have faded from the headlines.
The economic consequences haven’t.

🇨🇳 CHINA’S TECH COMEBACK IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
The world’s fastest supercomputer is no longer American.
China just did what U.S. sanctions were supposed to prevent.
China’s LineShine just took the No. 1 spot for the first time since 2017.
- Built with domestic chips.
- Built despite export controls.
- Built anyway.
Competition doesn’t disappear when you close the door.
It finds another entrance.

38,000 trades, one congress household. BIG questions
A 239 page complaint is raising serious questions after a US Congressman’s household reportedly disclosed 38,000 stock trades worth $631M+ while overseeing AI, semiconductors, defense, healthcare & China policy.
Allegations claim $28M in above market gains tied to trades around major policy events + 624 late STOCK Act filings + heavy positioning in sectors directly linked to committee oversight.
AI boom → Nvidia exposure
Chip policy debates → semiconductor trades
Defense oversight → contractor positions
Healthcare regulation → sector timing

🇺🇸The U.S. Senate has officially passed a bill preventing the Fed from launching a CBDC until 2030.
Now it heading to the House.
For years, Bitcoin critics said governments would simply replace crypto with their own digital currencies.
Today, that narrative took a hit.
Bitcoin’s biggest competitor was never gold.
It was control.
This is why 21 million matters.

TOM LEE:
“IN CRYPTO, THE BEST YEARS ARE DEFINITELY AHEAD.”
Today: 4M Bitcoin wallets hold $10K+.
Globally: 900M IRA & brokerage accounts hold $10K+.
That’s a 200X larger pool of capital still sitting outside crypto.
The comparison puts adoption into perspective.
If even a small fraction of traditional investment capital finds its way into crypto, the market could look very different a decade from now.
We’re still early in the liquidity cycle.

THE PETRODOLLAR JUST GOT A WARNING.
🇦🇪 UAE says if dollars become unavailable, oil will be traded in Chinese yuan.
Oil follows liquidity. Liquidity creates power.
And power shifts slowly.
The Dollar won’t lose overnight.
But reserve currency dominance dies one transaction at a time.
Oil is becoming a battlefield for currencies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN’S ¥21.3B PENSION FUND GOING IN CRYPTO.
Japan’s ¥21.3B pension fund National Business Corporate is set to allocate 1% into crypto.
This is not hype money. This is the most conservative capital on earth slowly changing its stance after years of study on fiat debasement.
1% sounds small until you realize who’s doing it.
Pensions don’t chase narratives. They follow survival math.

Crypto adoption is becoming real nowadays.

JP MORGAN FLAGGED SOMETHING HARD TO IGNORE.
Up to $165B of equity selling could hit into quarter-end as big funds rebalance risk back toward bonds after the recent run-up.
No earnings story/ macro shock. Just mechanical flows.
When positioning is stretched near highs even “non-news” selling can looks like real pressure fast.
AI names crowded. Indexes extended. Volatility compressed.
End of quarter tape is about to get interesting.

FEW DAYS AGO EVERYONE WAS PRICING IN ESCALATION.
Now Iran’s Foreign Minister is reportedly heading to Switzerland for talks with the US.
Nothing may come from it. But markets move on outcomes.
Not sure deal is coming or not but it's worth to watch.

PEACE TALKS POSTPONED AGAIN.
ONE TIME IT'S A DEAL...NEXT DAY IT'S SUSPENDED TALKS AND CANCELLED TRIPS.
U.S.- Iran talks were supposed to start in Switzerland, but Iran is suspending the process entirely.
JD Vance cancels the Switzerland trip.
Everything within 1 Day. All credit goes to Israel.
It’s like every deal now comes with immediate uncertainty baked in.
Nothing holds for long.
Was the peace talk really the final? Or it is some beginning of something big?

PEACE TALKS POSTPONED AGAIN.
ONE DEAL IT'S A DEAL...NEXT DAY IT'S SUSPENDED TALKS AND CANCELLED TRIPS.
U.S.- Iran talks were supposed to start in Switzerland, but Iran is suspending the process entirely.
JD Vance cancels the Switzerland trip.
Everything within 1 Day. All credit goes to Israel.
It’s like every deal now comes with immediate uncertainty baked in.
Nothing holds for long.
Was the peace talk really the final? Or it is some beginning of something big?

Trump’s World Liberty Financial is reportedly close to an OCC federal trust bank charter potentially the first of its kind for a stablecoin issuer in US history.
The Block⁠ reports WLTC (WLFI subsidiary) filed in Jan 2026 to create a national trust bank for USD1 issuance, reserves, custody, and USD ↔ USD1 settlement.
Two former OCC staffers reportedly called approval nearly guaranteed, though it’s still unconfirmed.
If approved, USD1 $4.6B reserves would move into a federally supervised banking framework, changing how institutional risk is assessed.
June is already its most active deployment m