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The U.S. September CPI data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 14. As important data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate meeting, the market will closely watch its impact on rate-cut expectations.
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1️⃣ Do you think the September CPI will come in above or below expectations?
2️⃣ How will the financial markets react after the CPI is released?
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CPI data will be released tomorrow!
Let’s first briefly explain what CPI is and how the logic chain works:
CPI is the Consumer Price Index, which measures how quickly prices are rising. A higher CPI = higher inflation.
The core chain in one sentence: Inflation is too high → the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates or maintain high rates → borrowing costs for companies become more expensive and funds are withdrawn from the market → U.S. stocks come under pressure and fall!
As long as rate-hike expectations and high rates remain, they will support the dollar. Funds flowing into the dollar will be withdrawn from other markets. The dollar is a risk-free asset, and U.S. Treasuries are also risk-free assets, so risk assets will come under pressure and fall.
In short:
CPI comes in above expectations (inflation rebounds)
The market will believe that the Federal Reserve will maintain high rates or even continue raising rates.
Borrowing costs rise, market liquidity tightens, and funds become less willing to hold high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies are likely to fall, with volatility often greater than that of U.S. stocks.
CPI comes in below expectations (inflation cools)
The market will anticipate that rate cuts may come later.
Money becomes cheaper, liquidity loosens, and funds become more willing to seek returns. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies have high elasticity and are more likely to rise.
This CPI release (core):
Monthly rate: previous 0.3%, forecast 0.2%. A result in line with or below expectations is bullish, while a result above expectations is bearish. If it is above both expectations and the previous reading, it would be severely bearish.
Annual rate: previous 2.4%, forecast 2.5%. The logic is the same.
Note: The monthly rate affects the short term, while the annual rate has a greater impact on the long term. Those trading macro cycles should pay more attention to the annual rate.
This CPI release is relatively contradictory, so I won’t make a prediction. It would be better to wait for the release, observe the market’s reaction, and then determine whether the outlook is bullish or bearish.#美国9月CPI即将公布