The monetary policy minutes at 2 a.m.—should I watch them or not? I’m a little conflicted!
Since Warsh took office, meetings like these seem to have failed to boost market volatility or provide market guidance. When Powell was in office, his evasive answers still let you see the yin and yang; Warsh gives you nothing but an impenetrable fog.
The market now seems more focused on the U.S. Treasury issue. Given Warsh’s apparent preference for not providing forward policy guidance, the monetary policy minutes probably won’t offer any clear statement on Treasuries—and they may not even mention the issue!
So our attention still needs to turn back to Treasuries!
Right now, long-term U.S. Treasury prices in TLT20 are weakening, while yields on 10- and 30-year bonds are rising, giving the impression that the market has entered a period of weak risk awareness.
Bitcoin, the barometer of risk appetite, is range-bound; gold, the barometer of safe-haven sentiment, is also range-bound; the VIX has rebounded slightly after hitting a low for the year; and crude oil prices are likewise stuck in a range, neither rising nor falling!
The contest for the Strait of Hormuz is heating up, while the S&P and Nasdaq, which serve as references for market euphoria, continue to hit new highs.
Historically, U.S. stocks seem to have undergone a major pullback before midterm elections. Applying that historical pattern mechanically, this is highly likely, with funds withdrawing to wait on the sidelines and adopt a defensive posture.
So, putting everything together:
1: Bitcoin indicates that risk appetite has not recovered. Even if the fifth wave on the weekly chart has finished, there has been no improvement.
2: Although gold has not sent a safe-haven signal (Note: gold is not only a safe-haven asset; it also follows real interest rate pricing logic and has a dollar-denominated nature. The safe-haven effect of geopolitical crises is often directly offset by rising real Treasury yields), Treasuries have (Note: this is a signal of tighter interest rates and does not represent a traditional safe-haven signal).
3: The VIX has reached a low point. This is a risk signal and a negatively correlated factor,
4: Oil prices are stuck in the middle, while the U.S.-Iran confrontation is still simmering, and Iran is being very tough!
To sum up: the market is quite chaotic, with multiple factors becoming entangled!
I think what should be done now is to remain defensive while watching whether the above factors materialize simultaneously,
especially as the U.S. stock indexes keep hitting new highs while a large number of individual stocks are beginning to fall behind.
I haven’t written anything macro-related in a long time!
Those taking a long-term view can refer to the key triggers mentioned above and keep an eye on changes themselves; for short-term traders, it doesn’t really matter. #美债 .
Since Warsh took office, meetings like these seem to have failed to boost market volatility or provide market guidance. When Powell was in office, his evasive answers still let you see the yin and yang; Warsh gives you nothing but an impenetrable fog.
The market now seems more focused on the U.S. Treasury issue. Given Warsh’s apparent preference for not providing forward policy guidance, the monetary policy minutes probably won’t offer any clear statement on Treasuries—and they may not even mention the issue!
So our attention still needs to turn back to Treasuries!
Right now, long-term U.S. Treasury prices in TLT20 are weakening, while yields on 10- and 30-year bonds are rising, giving the impression that the market has entered a period of weak risk awareness.
Bitcoin, the barometer of risk appetite, is range-bound; gold, the barometer of safe-haven sentiment, is also range-bound; the VIX has rebounded slightly after hitting a low for the year; and crude oil prices are likewise stuck in a range, neither rising nor falling!
The contest for the Strait of Hormuz is heating up, while the S&P and Nasdaq, which serve as references for market euphoria, continue to hit new highs.
Historically, U.S. stocks seem to have undergone a major pullback before midterm elections. Applying that historical pattern mechanically, this is highly likely, with funds withdrawing to wait on the sidelines and adopt a defensive posture.
So, putting everything together:
1: Bitcoin indicates that risk appetite has not recovered. Even if the fifth wave on the weekly chart has finished, there has been no improvement.
2: Although gold has not sent a safe-haven signal (Note: gold is not only a safe-haven asset; it also follows real interest rate pricing logic and has a dollar-denominated nature. The safe-haven effect of geopolitical crises is often directly offset by rising real Treasury yields), Treasuries have (Note: this is a signal of tighter interest rates and does not represent a traditional safe-haven signal).
3: The VIX has reached a low point. This is a risk signal and a negatively correlated factor,
4: Oil prices are stuck in the middle, while the U.S.-Iran confrontation is still simmering, and Iran is being very tough!
To sum up: the market is quite chaotic, with multiple factors becoming entangled!
I think what should be done now is to remain defensive while watching whether the above factors materialize simultaneously,
especially as the U.S. stock indexes keep hitting new highs while a large number of individual stocks are beginning to fall behind.
I haven’t written anything macro-related in a long time!
Those taking a long-term view can refer to the key triggers mentioned above and keep an eye on changes themselves; for short-term traders, it doesn’t really matter. #美债 .
