#HYPE续创历史新高 HYPE (Hyperliquid) reached a new all-time high (approximately $83) before facing a major token unlock on August 29 (approximately 14.18 million tokens worth approximately $1.2 billion), putting the market to the test over whether it can continue breaking higher after reaching a new high. Considering market fundamentals, capital flows, and technical factors, HYPE has the potential to continue breaking higher, but faces short-term unlock-related selling pressure and the risk of a pullback from elevated levels. The key to a breakout lies in the market’s ability to absorb supply and the continued delivery of the ecosystem’s fundamentals.
I. Positive Factors Supporting Further Breakouts
1. Strong fundamentals and buyback mechanism providing support
As a decentralized derivatives exchange, Hyperliquid has recently generated daily fee revenue of several million dollars, with protocol revenue continuously converted into buyback support for HYPE (the Assistance Fund uses 97%-99% of fee revenue for market buybacks). This “revenue-driven + deflationary” model provides strong intrinsic value support for the token price. If trading volume remains high, buybacks can effectively offset part of the selling pressure.
2. Incremental capital and compliance expectations
Spot HYPE ETFs launched recently by institutions such as Bitwise and 21Shares have brought in incremental institutional capital, while compliance expectations surrounding the U.S. CFTC have given the project a valuation premium. In addition, the sharing of reserve yields generated by USDC’s return to Hyperliquid provides HYPE with additional potential buying demand.
3. Ecosystem expansion and narrative support
Hyperliquid is expanding from simple perpetual contracts into on-chain financial infrastructure such as RWA (real-world assets) and prediction markets. This ecosystem expansion gives it greater growth potential and continues to attract market attention and capital.
4. Market sentiment and short covering
After reaching a new all-time high, if the price can hold key resistance levels such as $84, it could trigger a positive cycle driven by short sellers’ forced liquidations (a short squeeze), providing short-term upward momentum.
II. Risk Factors Limiting Further Breakouts
1. Short-term selling pressure from the large unlock
The major unlock on August 29, some of which involved insiders and early investors, introduced approximately $1.2 billion in potential new selling pressure. Although an unlock does not mean immediate selling, the incentive to cash out increases when prices are high. If the market lacks sufficient buying support, it could trigger sharp short-term volatility or a pullback.
2. Valuation is elevated, with some positive factors already priced in
HYPE has risen sharply over a short period, and its new all-time high has already largely priced in the optimistic narratives surrounding ETF expectations, compliance expectations, and ecosystem expansion, leaving less room for error. If subsequent revenue growth falls short of expectations, or if the broader market (BTC) pulls back, the token price could face significant profit-taking pressure.
3. Technical pullback pressure after reaching a new all-time high
Indicators such as the daily RSI have entered overbought territory, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears at elevated levels. Changes in whale holdings have a significant impact on price, and the price is highly likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels in the short term, with the risk of a spike followed by a pullback requiring caution.
III. Overall Assessment
HYPE has the potential to continue breaking higher over the medium to long term, but it will face significant volatility around the unlock in the short term. If the market can absorb the selling pressure from the unlock and Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue and ecosystem expansion continue to exceed expectations, the token price may resume seeking a breakout direction after digesting the selling pressure. Conversely, if market sentiment weakens or the broader market weighs on it, the token price could face a retracement.$HYPE ‌

#Gate股票观点挑战 What will Warsh say at the Jackson Hole meeting? What will be the impact on global markets?
I. What situation does Warsh face?
Inflation out of control:
July PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 3.3%, far above the 2% target. The Federal Reserve has missed its target for 65 consecutive months, while CPI rose 0.28% month-on-month and is still accelerating. Tariff effects are being transmitted: clothing -1.4% (lagged), furniture -0.5% (lagged), with enormous pressure for a rebound ahead. The New York Fed manufacturing prices paid index hit a four-year high.
Long-term bond market disorder:
The 30Y yield is 4.743%, just one step away from the psychological 5% threshold (having previously touched 5.33%, a 19-year high). The 10Y yield is 4.127%, and the 2Y yield is 3.574%. The term premium continues to widen, with the market increasingly pricing in fiscal sustainability concerns.
Policy conflict:
Trump is demanding rate cuts to 3% or even lower, while Bessent is using the TGA account to push down long-end yields. But high inflation plus expanding fiscal deficits naturally prompt the market to demand higher yields as compensation. Warsh is caught between “political pressure” and “market reality.”
II. Three possible statements by Warsh
A. Ambiguous balance
Probability: 50%
Core content
Acknowledge the stickiness of inflation but attribute it to temporary factors; emphasize data dependence; neither commit to nor rule out rate cuts; weaken forward guidance.
Market impact
Short-term interest rates fluctuate slightly, long-end yields remain elevated, and the dollar weakens slightly.
B. Hawkish shift
Probability: 30%
Core content
Explicitly state that “inflation risks outweigh employment risks”; hint that a rate hike may be possible by year-end; refuse to pave the way for rate cuts.
Market impact
The dollar surges, U.S. stocks plunge, gold dives, and long-end yields accelerate upward.
C. Unprofessional statement
Probability: 20%
Core content
Misunderstand economic mechanisms, display internally inconsistent logic, and be viewed by the market as “Trump’s mouthpiece.”
Market impact
Confidence in the dollar is damaged, gold breaks above $5,000, and long-end yields surge uncontrollably.
Key judgment: Warsh will most likely follow scenario A—he has already publicly stated that he will “weaken forward guidance and listen more to the market,” and will not proactively create a shock. However, if inflation data continues to deteriorate, the probability of scenario B will rise rapidly.
III. Historical Jackson Hole: How did U.S. stocks perform?
On the day of the speech (S&P 500):
Average change: -0.12% (slight downside bias)
Median: +0.27%
Past 10 years
70% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.39%
Past 20 years
55% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.19%
One month after the speech:
Average gain: +0.12%
Past 10-year average: +1.37%, with a 70% probability of gains
Past 20-year average: +1.54%, with a 55% probability of gains
Statistical conclusion: Jackson Hole itself does not create trends, but if the Fed chair uses the platform to make a major policy shift—especially a hawkish one—the impact can be enormous. 2022 was a bloody lesson.
IV. Transmission to global markets
Four transmission channels:
Dollar → yuan → emerging markets: If Warsh follows the hawkish scenario B, a dollar rebound will increase depreciation pressure on the yuan and lead to foreign capital outflows from A-shares. However, China’s monetary policy is relatively independent, so the impact is controllable.
Long-end yields → global valuation anchor: If the 30Y yield breaks above 5%, valuations of global risk assets will come under pressure, especially high-valuation sectors such as the Nasdaq and growth stocks in A-shares.
Gold → restructuring of safe-haven demand: Under scenario C, if Warsh appears unprofessional, confidence in the dollar will be damaged and gold could quickly break above $5,000. The current $4,650 already reflects a considerable portion of expectations.
Bessent’s operations → changes in the U.S. Treasury market structure: Regardless of what Warsh says, Bessent has already begun using TGA buybacks to push down long-end yields (from September to November, $14–16 billion per quarter), but the scale is limited and cannot alter the trend.
Core logic: The current combination is “high inflation + high interest rates + high uncertainty.” Warsh’s speech may create short-term volatility, but over the medium term, gold and innovative drugs are among the few assets capable of simultaneously hedging against inflation uncertainty and policy uncertainty.