Sykodelicc

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This looks like its about to dump.
Open Interest is currently at ATHs!
What we can see here over the last year is that every single time Bitcoin Open Interest has hit this level, it has reversed hard.
What this shows us is that leverage in the system is extremely high right now.
An interesting observation here though is that Bitcoin tends to reverse from whichever direction its going as it hits this OI level.
On 10/10 we pumped into it an dumped hard as OI collapsed.
Then at $80k, $60k and $59k, we moved higher after OI hit this level.
This is because leverage traders almost always trade with
BTC3.12%
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Bitcoin is about to close 3 red Quarters in a row.
The last two times this happened were in 2022 and 2019.
In 2019, the mid cycle correction, the third candle marked the low.
In 2022, there was a 4th.
Bitcoin has never closed more than 4 3M candles in a row.
Right now, the current 3M candle is sitting right at the 2021 cycle high 3M candle.
As you all know I believe the overall market is in a much similar position to 2019 than 2022.
I don't think we get a 4th red candle.
What do you think? And why?
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Bitcoin is setting up for a historic monthly close.
If it closes where it is now, it will be the first time it has ever closed a monthly candle back below a previous cycle high.
Even in 2022 it did not do that.
And it would be doing this, after the first cycle where the 1M RSI never truly entered into overbought territory.
Bitcoin continues to do things within this cycle that it has never done.
$60k has been a solid level, with massive amounts of accumulation happening. But a monthly close here would not be ideal for the bullas.
How does the next monthly candle look to you if we close like thi
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Whale Holdings for Bitcoin just put in the largest spike in its history.
By a country mile.
Damn.
Whales have accumulated around 270,000 in the $59,000 area.
Every metric for Bitcoin accumulation right now is off the charts...
Just as ETF holders are capitulating and everyone is expecting $40k.
Whether you think the bottom is in or not, this kind of accumulation is unprecedented and signals nothing other than massive demand for Bitcoin at these prices.
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Things are shaping up very well for Altcoins.
I know that is very hard to believe after the soul destroying performance of alts over the last few years...
But things really are looking very constructive here.
For the first time in over 2 years the 1W MACD has entered the positive territory, with the chart forming and strong bottom position.
The same thing happened in 2020, confirming the bottom.
This chart is yet another representation of how clearly we have been within a mid cycle framework.
You can see very clearly the two previous cycle tops, and how we have had nothing like that in this cy
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The accumulation at these levels has exploded.
The spike in new whales is the most aggressive ever.
Is the same thing going to play out that is as old as time?
Mas fear for retail as whales scoop up?
Well, that is exactly what the data shows.
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We know who the US open Bitcoin slammers are.
Bitcoin ETFs have sold another $1.3bn $BTC so far this week.
This is the very likely end up being the 3rd largest week of outflows in their history.
The other three largest weeks being:
- 2nd March 2025 @ $79k
- 6th June 2026 @ $60k
- 6th Feb 2026 @ $60k
So far this year Bitcoin ETFs have sold $12.5bn, with $8.5bn of that between $60k in Feb and today.
They have bought $6.7bn this year, giving them a net outflow of $5.7bn for 2026.
Bitcoin has absorbed $8.5bn of sell pressure from ETFs whilst being above $60k.
What we're seeing here, imo, is ETF c
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Hans888:
nice
I get a lot of disrespect for this.
A lot of people call me "desperate" to connect a narrative and many other things.
But its not a narrative nor is it desparate.
The FACT is that 2026 IS so much more closely aligned on a macro broad scale to 2019 than it is to any previous bear market, such as 2018 and 2022.
This chart shows it to you very clearly.
With Bitcoin, ETH/BTC, OTHERS.D and PMI, we are looking exactly the same as 2019.
In 2018 and 2022 all of these charts were trending downwards, together, after moving in the same way on the way up.
In 2019, Bitcoin was mid cycle correcting, with ET
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ETH5.33%
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Its mad how similar these two periods are.
Bitcoins current bear cycle is almost a complete mirror of 2019.
Its the only one where it matches the timeframe of reaching oversold levels this quickly.
Its also a very similar shape, and it just so happens to be after a mid cycle top that never overextended, just like the top we had in October.
But most notably, look at the timeframe from top to the COVID low, and the what timeframe we are in from the October top.
Almost exactly the same, only a few days behind.
Are we going to get a similar capitulation low down to those low $50k levels?
Will it b
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Things getting a little bit testy for Saylor here.
I haven't really commented on this yet, many others have.
But it doesn't seem to be slowing down as of yet
And it looks like $STRC is definitely having a pretty heavy headwind over Bitcoin at the moment.
Every US session STRC gets hit we are seeing BTC get hit.
Do the big boys want Saylor in a tough position before Clarity Passes?
Could this cause a decent capitulation event?
Let me know what you think.
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One of the more bearish metrics right now that doesn't look good...
Is the 200w SMA.
Weekly lost $65,500 and hasnt been able to get back above since.
Now, this weekly candle is currently below the 200w SMA and if it closes there would be first in a very long time.
Bitcoin has only ever closed below the 200w SMA in one bear market, 2022.
When it did, it stayed under for 6 months.
The bulls want Bitcoin back above $62,200 before the end of the week.
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We just had the largest 4H liquidation candle since the peak in October.
Bigger than the $80k bottom and the $60k bottom.
And even bigger than the recent sweep to $60k where we had a total of $6bn liquidations in 3 days.
That's a mammoth liq candle, damn.
Some big positions got unwound there.
Bitcoin doing a great job of taking out every single long that has ever existed, ever, lol.
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Looks like another liquidity hunt.
Nice SMT between BTC and ETH here.
Let's see ETH pump harder out the gates.
Want a daily close back above $60k and that will be our third drive down that gets defended.
Big day.
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ETH5.33%
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Ironed:
Hold tight 💪
We bought the wrong asset guys.
I think I will now sell my Bitcoin to buy the Dow Jones.
Bitcoin as an ass-et has failed.
It probably was made by the CIA.
Dave down at mcdonalds was right.
And my taxi driver.
Its all a scam.
P.S...
This is sarcasm...
Bet more.
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The stats coming out of this market are wild.
Bitcoin has now reached only 46% of the supply now in profit.
This equals the 2022 bear market low.
Bitcoin has reached this level after a 52% drop, compared to 2022 at a 75% drop.
And its doing all of this whilst small cap stocks make new highs.
If you had told me this 6 months ago i simply wouldn't have believed you whatsoever.
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I just cannot unsee all these 2019 comparisons.
There are simply far too many.
The top chart is TOTAL3/BTC, it shows us the strength of Alts against Bitcoin.
We can see that every cycle top TOTAL3/BTC has spiked massively, then distributed as Bitcoin tops and drops again.
In 2022, TOTAL3/BTC distributed for ages and didn't start dropping until Bitcoin bottomed.
But where are right now is a completely different place entriely.
And it looks exactly like 2019, when Bitcoin had a mid cycle correction.
Bitcoin topped, and TOTAL3/BTC bottomed, as alts were stronger than Bitcoin on the drop.
Which is
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Bitcoin has done something it has never done before.
For the first time ever, in its entire history, it has totally decoupled from everything.
- Small cap stocks
- Global liquidity
- Business Cycle
- Copper/Gold(not pictured)
If it was only one of these things you could write it off as nothing.
But every single one? For the first time? All at the same time?
Something large has changed.
Is It the institutions? Saylor?
Something else?
Who tf knows... but something fundamental has shifted here.
You can go on about the 4 year cycle if you want...
But what you have to understand is that the 4 yea
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XCU-0.15%
XAU1.24%
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Very forced moved here from Bitcoin.
Something like 16 out of 18 15m candles are red.
OI exploding as price drops, with funding sharply declining.
Late shorters gonna get rekt here soon.
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