Sykodelicc

Starting to look like a decent bottom formed here.
After the $60k low sweep, we had a grind up through the $63,000 level, with a nice retest.
From there, Bitcoin looks to be impulsing higher.
A noticeable change in price action here.
Funding negative - I think this move has some more legs here.
Whether $59k was the bottom is yet to be seen, but this is constructive.

This is truly peak value.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at around the 7% level.
What this means is that Bitcoin only trades at this value level, less than 7% of the time.
So 93 out of 100 days, Bitcoin is trading higher.
That is over a 9/1, which are fantastic odds.
We are currently just above Quantile 5, which Bitcoin has only ever gone below once, within the 2022 bear market.
However, in each previous bull market, Bitcoin has tagged Q95, whereas this time, it did not even tag Quantile 75.
Even more evidence that this is a mid cycle correction.
In summary, this is not the time to be hasty or

Are we going to go lower?
As you all know, $74k was my number and after a long fought battle, we lost that level and we have to adapt.
That's the game.
I still very much believe, however, that this is a mid cycle correction, for all the data I consistently post.
Right now the weekly looks mixed, with what is currently looking like an underside retest of the Weekly close levels lost below $65,000, but with a bounce from the 200SMA.
However, If we close like this, I think there is a decent possibility it opens up the door for the Realised Cap, at $54k, to be tested.
But I personally believe that

I have bought into the first new project in a long while.
I watched on the sidelines as this pumped hard back in April - totally faded it.
Now, with this overall market retrace, I think we’ve been given a solid R/R and I'm having a pop.
Project is @knoxnetofficial - $ KNX
I really think this will do numbers.
KNX is 100% private blockchain, enabling totally offline transactions. None of this copy paste ZK Proof waffle, it actually is private - no meta data no nothing.
It’s like the cash version of Crypto payments. Untraceable - and I think has a pretty large use case.
Alts have been struggling

Nice range forming here with Bitcoin.
High level shorts at $65,500.
High level longs at $58,000
With $61,000 and $62,500 also being areas of interest.
Would expect the range to go on for a bit, so wait for extremes of the range for sweeps.
This is likely the most bullish scenario we could expect to play out.
Highs taken first.

The more I look into this the more It becomes clear.
The similarities between 2019/2020 and now are impossible to ignore.
Not only does the Bitcoin structure look the same, so does:
- US liquidity
- Business cycle
- All of the wider market charts
ETH/BTC, BTC.D, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, OTHERS and OTHERS.D
All of them show the same market position as 2019/2020.
And when you compare it closely, so does the Bitcoin chart.
In 2019/2020 the same things happened, at pretty much exactly the same time.
The reason it is important to differentiate this between a mini bear market like 2019/2020 and 2020 is beca

Longterm holders have never had this much conviction.
And they have also never been in this deep of a loss across the board.
Bitcoin longterm holders now hold the most amount ever, at over 16.5m Bitcoins.
And almost half of those coins are in loss, at the largest amount ever, at 7.4m coins.
For reference, at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, 6.8m coins were in loss.
2018 - 5.8m Bitcoins
2015 - 5.9m Bitcoins
Right now this is the amount of Longterm holder Bitcoins in a loss, ever.
What this data shows us is that Longterm holders have added more than ever, and are happy to hold in loss.
After

There is still a lot of data pointing to this being a mid cycle correction.
I understand that thus far, Bitcoin has followed the usual path of the 4 year cycle very closely.
But when you look under the surface and delve deeper into the wider market, you see that within this current cycle, Bitcoin is the only asset actually following it.
And yes, I get it, it is Bitcoins 4 year cycle.
But what you also cannot ignore is that within every other cycle, the wider market has also followed Bitcoin in every way.
And what we are currently presented with here is a very interesting situation.
Right now t

This is very strong support.
Bitcoin has now tagged its production cost twice in the last 5 months.
Within Bitcoins total history it has tagged the Production cost in a downtrend 8 times.
2 of those in the modern era were the 2020 COVID drop, which was just a wick.
And the other, being the only time bitcoin has candle body closed below it in a downtrend, is the 2017 bottom.
Essentially, there has only ever been one time in history where Bitcoin has candle body closed below the production cost, whilst in a downtrend.
When this happened, it was during what is Bitcoin harshest one day drop ever.

Losing $74,000 for Bitcoin was bad news.
Alright, back from my holiday and feeling refreshed.
Time to reassess and get back on top of things after having the long held $74,000 level lost.
This has been a level i have been using in my overall analysis for about 6 months now.
We lost it, devaited, then reclaimed it.
From there we had a really nice run up to $83,000, reclaiming Weekly HTF structure amongst may other key levels, whilst the bears missed the entire move.
However, last week, the bears regained control and we lost $74,000 once more.
No sugar coating it - Losing it after reclaiming it

Markets might be down…
But we keep getting after it!
Long weekend away from with the wife’s family this weekend but a quick 5k smasher.
You guys got any touching grass missions on this weekend?

Didn’t think I would get the chance back here…
But have, for the first time in a while, bought some $ETH.
Lowest 1D RSI ever.
When markets move like this it’s very hard to say when the pivot low will form, but historically, buying at these heavily oversold prices is very profitable.
Back in accumulation mode 🫡

Daily RSI has only been lower twice in the last 6 years.
- Feb 6th
- COVID lows
Each time Bitcoin was making large new lows.
COVID was a 50% daily drop.
But Bitcoin hasn't made new lows this time... yet.
Regardless, this is massive selling pressure without making fresh lows.
And the other two times marked the bottom.
This has been another huge unwind.

Alts have massively outperformed over the last 2 weeks.
Bitcoin is down 11% - the weakest
Ethereum is down 8% - Not as weak as BTC
However, OTHERS is up 6%.
This is a huge divergence from how OTHERS behaved within the last drop in Feb, and totally against the usual manner of things.
OTHERS is the riskiest asset index and as such, should lose the most value the fastest.
Another interesting point here is that Bitcoin has been weaker than ETH on every recent major market drop.
What this tells us is that this whole correction is a mainly a Bitcoin only move, and some of the market is being pulled