BaiBiHou2026

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
Various models predict the World Cup—universally favoring Spain, unable to forecast upsets
It must be admitted that AI development is truly progressing by leaps and bounds; two years ago it was just a concept, now it has entered our daily lives. Even World Cup predictions have moved away from the blind guessing of “betting against the hot favorites, villas by the sea,” and instead adopted a “scientific” prediction approach using multiple models. Today, let’s take a look at various models’ predictions for this World Cup:
1. Authoritative championship probabilities and popular teams
According to multiple authoritative data models and AI analysis, Spain is generally regarded as the top favorite to win this World Cup. Opta’s supercomputer predicts its winning probability at 16.1%, while Goldman Sachs’s model even estimates it at as high as 26%. Following closely are France (probability 13%-19%) and the defending champion Argentina (probability 10.4%-14%), forming the first tier together. Additionally, EA Sports’ FC26 game, through hundreds of simulations, also predicts Spain will secure its second World Cup title in history.
Other traditional powerhouses like England, Brazil, Portugal, and Germany are in the second tier, with winning probabilities ranging from 3% to 11%. Notably, Norway (probability 3.5%) is viewed as the most promising dark horse, mainly thanks to the front-line duo of Haaland and Ødegaard. Morocco is also consistently favored by multiple AI models, which believe it could replicate the performance of the surprise semifinalist from the last World Cup.
2. Prediction methods and sources of information
Current World Cup predictions mainly rely on the following methods, each with its focus:
Data models and supercomputers: such as Opta and Goldman Sachs models, which are based on massive amounts of historical match data (like Elo ratings), recent team form, player strength, and other quantitative indicators, using tens of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations to derive probabilities.
AI large models analysis: including GPT-4, Claude, DeepSeek, etc., which, based on integrating traditional data, also attempt to incorporate psychological factors, geographical conditions (such as high-altitude effects), and other variables into their analysis.
Game simulations and historical experience: for example, EA Sports’ football game predicts outcomes by simulating entire tournaments, having correctly guessed the champion in four consecutive editions.

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
The Capital Game Behind World Cup Celebrations
The quadrennial World Cup is not only a carnival for football fans but also an “arena” for the economy and stock markets. Setting aside the massive financial cake of prediction markets and the influence of capital on the matches, this top-tier event functions like a huge economic engine, creating ripples across the host country, related industries, and even global capital markets. Its connection to the economy and stock markets is far closer than imagined.
1. The “Economic Radiation” of the World Cup: From Host Cities to Global Supply Chains
The economic impact of the World Cup on the host country exhibits a typical “double-edged sword” effect. On one hand, the event drives infrastructure investment as a “prelude”—the host needs to build or renovate stadiums, upgrade transportation networks, and improve supporting facilities like hotels. For example, in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, over $220 billion was invested in infrastructure, significantly boosting demand in construction, building materials, engineering machinery, and related industries, with local companies experiencing notable growth in orders and revenue.
On the other hand, the consumer market also experiences explosive growth. During the event, industries such as tourism, catering, retail, and media directly benefit: influxes of fans lead to soaring hotel occupancy rates and increased dining spending; billions of viewers worldwide watch matches via media platforms, driving revenue growth in advertising, broadcasting rights, and streaming sectors. Take the 2018 Russia World Cup as an example: during the event, Russia’s tourism income increased by over 30%, and retail and dining consumption rose by approximately 25% year-over-year.
From a global supply chain perspective, the World Cup is a showcase for “Made in China.” A large portion of footballs, jerseys, and souvenirs are produced in China. Companies based in Yiwu and other foreign trade hubs saw order volumes surge during the event cycle, fueling short-term prosperity in manufacturing and foreign trade industries.
2. The “World Cup Market” in Stocks: Sector Rotation and Sentiment Battles
The impact of the World Cup on the stock market manifests both in sector rotation and in fluctuations of market sentiment.
(1) “Pulse” Opportunities in Directly Benefiting Sectors
- Sports and Betting Sectors: The World Cup boosts performance for sports goods (like footballs and jerseys) and sports betting companies. For example, European bookmakers often see doubled betting volumes during the tournament, leading to phased stock price increases.
- Media and Entertainment Sectors: Rights holders, streaming platforms, and advertising firms benefit from increased traffic and ad revenue, making their stocks more attractive. During the 2022 World Cup, domestic media companies with broadcasting rights experienced short-term stock performance boosts.
- Consumer and Tourism Sectors: Tourism, hotel, and catering companies in the host city benefit directly from increased foot traffic; globally, brands selling beer, snacks, and other match-day consumables also attract capital during the event cycle, forming short-term “viewing consumption concept stocks.”
(2) The “Seesaw Effect” of Market Sentiment
The World Cup can also trigger “attention diversion” in the stock market. During the event, some funds shift from stocks to watching matches or betting, causing a temporary decline in market activity, especially at key moments like the finals, when trading volume often shrinks. This emotional influence has appeared multiple times in the A-share market and is called the “World Cup curse,” but this “curse” is not absolute; it’s mainly short-term emotional disturbance, with long-term trends still driven by fundamentals.
3. The “Long-Term Imprint” of the World Cup: Industry Upgrades and Capital Deployment
The influence of the World Cup on the economy and stock markets extends beyond short-term consumption and sentiment, involving long-term industry upgrades and capital strategies.
For the host country, infrastructure and supporting investments create “legacy” assets after the event, aiding urban function upgrades and industrial transformation. For example, after Brazil hosted the 2014 World Cup, some stadiums were transformed into community sports centers, promoting local fitness industries; improved transportation infrastructure also facilitated subsequent economic activities.
In capital markets, the World Cup accelerates the capitalization of the sports industry. The event’s commercial value draws more capital attention to sports IP, sports technology (such as smart wearables and venue operation tech), and related fields. Startups in these areas are more likely to secure funding, while established companies accelerate their layout in the sports industry chain, influencing long-term stock market investment directions.
Conclusion: The “World Cup” Beyond the Field — Economy and Capital
The relationship between the World Cup, the economy, and the stock market is a multidimensional interaction of “micro-consumption + meso-industry + macro-capital.” It serves as a short-term economic stimulant and a catalyst for market sentiment, as well as a long-term indicator of industry upgrading and capital deployment. For investors, distinguishing between short-term emotional fluctuations and long-term industry logic is crucial to finding their own investment rhythm amid this “green field economic feast.” For economies, the World Cup is a comprehensive “test” to showcase strength, boost industries, and activate consumption, with impacts far beyond the 90 minutes on the pitch.

#我的Gate交易时刻
Deep Analysis: Why I Started Long-Term Positioning at 60k (Revised Version)
Those familiar with Little God of Wealth know I previously mentioned in an article that 60,000 is the strategic level for long-term long positions. Many people don’t understand and mock me as a “bagholder,” thinking “it’s obviously going to fall further, maybe to 185M, and you’re bottom fishing at 40.46M?” Today, let’s set aside the habitual “position size determines mindset” thinking. Based on the principle of persuading (or misleading) one by one, I will analyze from the perspectives of institutional costs, capital flows, technical indicators, and macro environment why 60,000 is your golden point for building a long-term position.
1. Capital Tide: Return After the Tidal Retreat
Recent capital movements show that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a concentrated withdrawal by institutional investors. The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced the longest continuous outflow in history from late May to early June—13 trading days. In the first 15 trading days before June, a total outflow of about $4.4 billion (roughly 59,351 BTC). It wasn’t until June 4 that a slight net inflow of about $30k was recorded, briefly ending this record-breaking outflow; as of June 18, the overall still showed net outflows, with a total outflow of about $167 million/week, the third consecutive week of net outflows, totaling approximately $421 million over three weeks. This large-scale redemption is not simply a reaction to falling prices but an active reduction of holdings by institutions before a major price drop. Historical data shows that when ETF fund outflows peak, it often signals that the market bottom is near—similar phenomena occurred at the bottoms of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Looking back to last month, Bitcoin’s price above 60,000 attracted a large amount of institutional bottom-fishing capital, leading to a “institutional bull” wave, with Bitcoin once surging to $82,000. Now, a month later, after significant capital outflows, institutions have again accumulated “ammunition.” Will they buy the dip again at 60,000? It’s worth paying attention. Also, don’t forget that millions of Bitcoin holders are “diving” and waiting, with unrealized losses acting like a spring—when rebound occurs, they will push the market higher.
2. Major Holders’ Cost: The Market’s Ballast
After reviewing capital flows, let’s look at the holdings costs of major players, especially Strategy (MicroStrategy). As the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, its holdings are fully transparent and serve as a benchmark for institutional cost analysis.
Total holdings: about 818,334 BTC (as of April 27, 2026)
Total cost: about $30k
Average cost per BTC: about $75,700
Recent purchase price ranges:
April 27: bought 3,273 BTC, spent $255M, average about $78,000
April 13: bought 13,927 BTC, spent $1B, average about $71,900
January 20: bought 22,305 BTC, spent $2.125B, average about $95,500 (bought at high)
January 12: bought 13,627 BTC, spent $1.247B, average about $91,700
Strategy’s average cost of $75,700 is clearly higher than the on-chain market average of $53,447 and above the current spot price (~$65,700), meaning Strategy is currently at about -10% unrealized loss overall. Saylor sold part of his holdings in late May, then resumed small-scale buying in early June, signaling complex signals.
Next, let’s look at the overall market’s average cost, focusing on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, which is the most authoritative on-chain indicator representing the weighted average price at which all BTC last moved on-chain. According to Glassnode’s latest data, as of June 17, 2026:
Market Realized Price: about $53,447 (Glassnode)
Current spot price: about $65,700, which is roughly +22% above the realized price
This indicates that the weighted average purchase cost of all Bitcoin holders is around $53,000–$54,000. Notably, this indicator has fallen from its high of about $62,120 in 2025, suggesting that recent large-scale low-cost holders have re-entered the market, and high-cost holders have sold (realizing losses), pulling the average down.
VanEck’s mid-June on-chain report further confirms: 54% of BTC supply is in profit, far below the 81% four-year average, placing it in the 9th–12th percentile of historical data; the proportion of loss-making supply is near the four-year high (95th percentile), indicating that many recent institutional holdings are in floating loss.
Next, institutional ETF costs: since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, net inflows have totaled about $6.18B (Farside data). However, the ETF’s average purchase cost is not simply total inflows divided by current holdings because of large inflows and outflows during periods of significant price volatility.
We can estimate the ETF’s weighted average cost from these dimensions:
ETF holdings change: VanEck reports that the ETF’s total assets under management (AUM) fell from a peak of $10.9 billion on May 5 to $7.88 billion on June 11—a decline of about 27%, due to both redemptions and price drops.
Timing of capital inflows: major inflows occurred in Q1 2024 (Bitcoin between $40,000–$70,000), late 2024 to early 2025 (Bitcoin between $90,000–$100,000+), and during the rebound in April–May 2025. Considering early low-cost buys and later high-price additions, the estimated weighted average cost of the ETF is around $65,000–$72,000.
Finally, let’s look at miners’ costs. Different data sources estimate the cost of mining one BTC with significant variance. JPMorgan’s full-cost calculation (electricity + operations + depreciation + management) is about $78,000 per BTC. No need to say more—miners are now losing about $10,000 per BTC mined, and the price has long reached miners’ shutdown levels. Besides transitioning to AI service providers, remaining miners find mining less profitable than buying on the market, and this buying power also acts as a solid support for Bitcoin’s price.
3. Market Leverage: Violent Liquidation of Leverage Bubble
Based on multiple data sources (mainly CoinGlass), the average daily liquidation amount in June was about $185 million–$200 million. According to CoinGlass’s BTC liquidation page, on June 22, 24-hour liquidations reached about $66.16 million, with a total of about $40.46 million over seven days. Coupled with the ongoing downward trend since June, most liquidations are likely long positions. Behind this high liquidation volume, trading volume and turnover rate have also increased significantly. The forced liquidation wave is accelerating market cleansing. When liquidation amounts surge, it means weak hands have been eliminated, leaving more stable positions. Historically, peaks in liquidation (such as during the 2022 FTX crisis) often occur near market bottoms, followed by rebounds. Current data also shows a recent surge in short positions; once the price reverses, short covering will amplify the upward momentum, providing additional support for bottom-fishing.
4. Technical Analysis: Focus on Two Indicators
Finally, on the technical side, short-term indicators on smaller timeframes are widely analyzed. Let’s focus on two key weekly indicators. The first is the five-wave downward structure on the weekly chart that Little God of Wealth mentioned before. It is now in the final wave, meaning the market could bottom at any time. The recent three weekly candles have formed a “Morning Star” pattern. The next step is to see if the resistance around 66,300 can be broken. If it is, it likely indicates the five-wave decline on the weekly chart is complete, and the “bear” is out.
The second important indicator is the 200-week moving average (~$62,000), which has historically provided strong support, with rebounds each time it was touched. Sentiment-wise, the Fear & Greed Index shows “Extreme Fear,” but extreme pessimism is often a buying signal.
5. Summary
So, buying at 60,000 means you’re buying cheaper than institutions and at a lower cost than miners. Additionally, data shows that top-tier traders’ long-short ratio has dropped from 2.56 to around 1.5. After aggressive liquidations, leverage risks are being cleared. You no longer need to worry about buying “for others’ pump.” Many say Bitcoin will fall further, waiting for 167M to go all-in, but what if it doesn’t drop below 66.16M? That’s the crypto world—main players never do what you expect. Bottoms often appear unexpectedly, at levels everyone still thinks will fall further. So, just buy at a price you consider cheap. From 120k down to 60k, facing discounted Bitcoin, what are you hesitating for?
6. How to Bottom-Fish Near 60,000?
1. Spot traders: I think you can go all-in without hesitation, with about 60% of your capital, keeping 40% in reserve to add if the market drops further. Besides the traditional Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want higher returns, allocate some high-value altcoins with real projects and active teams, especially in AI and RWA sectors, avoiding meme coins’ hype.
2. Futures traders: If you’re not satisfied with the low returns of spot trading, leverage is necessary. Keep leverage low. You can start with a small position above 60,000 for initial layout. If the market successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 66,500, you can add positions accordingly. Always set stop-losses, around 59,000. If it breaks below, step back and wait. Don’t get overexcited and open new positions, to avoid falling into a cycle of bottom-fishing and stop-losses.
Bottom-fishing isn’t a skill contest of who operates more precisely; it’s a game of mentality, strategy, and big-picture thinking. Don’t worry about whether you bought at the absolute lowest; consider whether you’re the one ultimately making money. And whether you can hold your positions when the next bull market arrives. Anyway, I wish everyone prosperity every day!

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#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
The two rounds of group stage are over, and the four major contenders for the championship in the eyes of the little fortune god
After two rounds of the group stage, the World Cup on the North American continent is already halfway through, many highly touted teams before the match have exposed flaws early, while some teams have gradually shown championship potential through dominance from paper to the field. Now let's talk about the four teams I see as possible champions:
‌1. France: A Template of Technique and Calmness for Champions
‌Core of dominance‌: Two wins and no losses, 6 goals scored and 1 conceded, an average possession rate of 56.5%, a shot on target rate of 78% (19 shots with 15 on target), Mbappé contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in two matches, tying for first place on the World Cup scoring list (16 goals).
‌Tactical advantage‌: Midfield dual core (Jouameni + Chouameni) with an interception success rate of 89%, seamless connection between wing breakthroughs and central penetration, and the best transition efficiency in this tournament.
‌Path to qualification‌: Facing the third-placed team in the group (weaker team) in the Round of 16, likely encountering Argentina in the Round of 8, and possibly facing Spain in the semi-finals—‌full squad, no injuries or suspensions, 100% lineup completeness.
‌Key insight‌: FIFA’s technical report calls it “a textbook of modern football,” the only team that maintained rhythm control and completed the finalization after the thunderstorm interruption.
‌2. England: Psychological Trial Under High-Pressure Storm
‌Core of dominance‌: Two wins and no losses, 6 goals scored and 1 conceded, 62% possession, creating 15 shots and 7 on target throughout the game, Kane scored twice + Bellingham scored on a late run, full offensive firepower.
‌Tactical advantage‌: Under Tuchel’s setup of a 4-2-3-1 high pressing system, Rice and Bellingham as dual cores drive the team, with a top 3 interception rate in the league, Saka, Rashford, and Maduake forming a “trident of explosive points,” and the average front-line pressing intensity ranking first in this tournament.
‌Path to qualification‌: Likely facing the host Mexico (Azteca Stadium, 2,240 meters altitude) in the Round of 16, if advancing, facing Brazil in the quarter-finals (never eliminated in World Cup history), and possibly Spain in the semi-finals—‌a “hellish difficulty” path.
‌Key insight‌: Opta’s model indicates that England is the only team with an expected goals (xG) of 5.1 in the group stage but actual goals of 6.0, exceeding expectations; however, its psychological stability score in major tournaments is only 62/100, with a penalty shootout win rate of less than 40%, representing the biggest hidden danger for winning the title.
‌3. Argentina: The Ultimate Answer in Messi’s Era
‌Core of dominance‌: Two matches with 5 goals scored and none conceded, 53% possession, 85% pass success rate, Messi contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in two matches, totaling 16 World Cup goals, tying Klose.
‌Tactical advantage‌: Di María + Mac Allister as dual cores linking up, with strong midfield control, the clean sheet record extending to 11 consecutive international matches, only 3 shots on target conceded on defense.
‌Path to qualification‌: Facing the second in Group H (Spain) in the Round of 16, if advancing, facing the USA in the quarter-finals, and possibly France in the semi-finals—‌Messi, at 39, still maintains an average of 1.5 key passes per game, with no signs of physical decline.
‌Key insight‌: FIFA’s official technical analysis calls it “the most psychologically stable team in major tournaments,” able to maintain over 82% passing accuracy under high-pressure environments.
‌4. USA: Tactical Revolution of the Dark Horse Rise
‌Core of dominance‌: Two matches with 6 goals scored and 1 conceded, 63.5% possession, a conversion rate of 33.3% (18 shots, 6 goals), relying on opponent own goals in two consecutive matches, but overall attacking efficiency far exceeds the data.
‌Tactical advantage‌: High pressing + quick counterattack, averaging 19 tackles per game, with the highest front-line pressing intensity in this tournament, no core player missing, Pulisic returning soon from injury.
‌Path to qualification‌: Facing the third-place teams in Groups B/E/F/I/J in the Round of 16, if advancing, facing Brazil or England in the quarter-finals—‌the team’s average age is 24.3, the youngest among the top four, with the most abundant physical reserves.
‌Key insight‌: The Athletic describes it as “a paradigm shift in North American football,” transitioning from reliance on individual ability to systematic oppression and space utilization, no longer a traditional “dark horse.”

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
Cape Verdean players earn only a few thousand yuan a month—nowhere near enough for even one meal of sea cucumber!
At the 2026 World Cup, the Cape Verde team ranked 70th in the world managed to draw consecutively against Spain and Uruguay, two former world champions, shocking the football world. More upsetting than the upset results is the little-known survival story behind this team. According to local Chinese merchants, the monthly salary of Cape Verdean native players—converted into RMB—is only 1,000 to 2,000 yuan. Most players need to take on multiple part-time jobs to support their families; goalkeeper Vozinia is no exception. In Cape Verde, after 23 years in business, Wenzhou businessman Mr. Lin has known Vozinia since long ago. In their early years, the two brothers from Vozinia played for a local club that Mr. Lin had sponsored with supplies over a long period of time. Vozinia’s cousin now works at a clothing store run by Mr. Lin’s wife. As Mr. Lin explains, the monthly salary of native Cape Verdean players—converted into RMB—only falls in the range of 1,000 to 2,000 yuan, and the basic wages of local ordinary residents are basically kept within that same range; only some civil servants earn relatively higher pay.
The Cape Verde squad’s way of surviving lies in recruiting large numbers of descendants of Cape Verdean expatriates. In this national team, more than half of the players come from Cape Verdean immigrant communities in countries such as Portugal, France, and the Netherlands. Most of these players received youth training at clubs in Europe and have competed in leagues at various levels. Previously, goalkeeper Vozinia played for the Portuguese second-division team, the Shavish. His contract is set to expire on June 30, and the club has informed him that they will not renew his contract—this hero who kept Spain off the scoresheet at the World Cup is about to become a free agent.
Even so, the Cape Verdeans’ passion for football has never faded. Mr. Lin told reporters that football has long been embedded in Cape Verdean local culture “in the bones.” Almost every district has its own football club, and you can see children and young people playing soccer everywhere in the streets. “Everyone plays purely out of love for the game. Being able to represent their hometown and their country to compete is very precious to them.”

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
From the first goal to the first point—Curacao's underdog comeback
Fans of Little God of Wealth, once again, have hit the jackpot; Curacao unexpectedly held Ecuador to a draw. It seems this World Cup is determined to see upsets and draws through to the end. After scoring their first World Cup goal against the mighty German team, Curacao once again secured their first World Cup point by snatching it from the South American eagles. Fans worldwide are now turning their attention to this small country with a population of 16 million—how many more miracles can they create?
1. Tactical choices perfectly adapted, defensive strategy executed to the extreme
Before the match, Curacao clearly outlined a five-back defensive tactic, with almost all players deployed within their 30-meter zone, forming a dense defensive line to block and completely cut off Ecuador’s favored wing breakthroughs and central penetrations. Facing Ecuador’s continuous pressure throughout the game, Curacao players relied on solid fundamentals cultivated through Dutch youth training, maintaining minimal spacing in their defensive formation and leaving no exploitable gaps for the opponents.
2. Ecuador’s attacking weaknesses exposed, prolonged offensive struggles lead to mental imbalance
Ecuador was favored to easily win this match before the game, and the team pushed all out from the start to compete for qualification, attempting to quickly secure 3 points. However, this South American team, known for solid defense, has a fundamental flaw in finishing efficiency during positional play. The 36-year-old veteran Enner Valencia’s form has declined, and the forward line lacks a decisive finisher. As the game progressed without scoring, Ecuadorian players’ mentality grew increasingly anxious, their attacking choices became more irrational, with multiple reckless long shots, failing to leverage their strengths effectively.
3. Rapidly filling in tournament experience, key players in top form
As a World Cup newcomer, after a 1-7 defeat to Germany in their first match, Curacao quickly adjusted their state. Core players like the Bakuna brothers, Tschan Tschan, and Luidji Luidji all remained healthy and in peak condition, avoiding the collapse faced in the first game against high-pressing defenses. The team’s resilience on the field improved significantly compared to the first match, and even under continuous Ecuadorian pressure, they never made fatal mistakes.
4. The spirit of a historic moment, the whole team fought to the last second
This draw was incredibly meaningful for Curacao. The team displayed fighting spirit far beyond their perceived strength, with every player running tirelessly for their first World Cup points in history. Ultimately, they held on to a 0-0 scoreline and earned a precious 1 point against Ecuador, ranked 28th in the world—achieving a breakthrough that no one dared to imagine before the match.