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Four Bull and Bear Cycles: I Finally Overcame the Obsession with "Bottom-Fishing at the Lowest Point"

Having entered the market for a full 12 years, I’ve fallen into the traps of four Bitcoin bull and bear cycles, and I’ve enjoyed the gains of four bull markets. But there’s one thing I failed at four times: during each late stage of a bear market, knowing the bottom range was right in front of me, I was obsessed with catching that “absolute lowest point,” watching the market start to move up while I stayed on the sidelines, waiting in vain. Ultimately, I either chased the high to enter or completely missed out on this round of the market.

This cycle, I held out until the end of 2024 and finally got the rhythm right—not because I lucked out and caught the bottom, but because I completely changed my trading logic—abandoning the idea of catching the lowest point and embracing left-side positioning. Today, I’ll share the lessons learned from these four pitfalls to warn fellow traders still obsessed with bottom-fishing.

Four Missed Opportunities: I Turned "Finding the Lowest Point" into a Collection of Mistakes

I remember my first pitfall was in 2014, when that bear market dropped from over $1,100 to around $150. I started watching from $200, thinking, “It still has to fall further; I’ll wait for the harshest drop to buy in.” What happened? After hitting a low of $152, it shot up to $1,000 in less than three months. I hadn’t even built a position and just watched the rally. I finally couldn’t resist and bought half a position at $800, earning some pocket money but missing out on several times the bottom’s gains.

The second time was in 2018, when the bear market fell from nearly $20k to $3,100. I started waiting for the bottom at $6,000, convinced “it will break previous lows,” sometimes hearing bearish analyses predicting $1,000, sometimes panicked community sentiment. After the bottom at $3,100 appeared, I was still waiting for a second dip. By the time I realized it, the price had already rebounded to $10k. I missed most of the bottom range again.

The third time was in 2020, at $312. It was even more dramatic: when Bitcoin plunged to $3,800, I had a plan to buy the dip, but I kept thinking, “It might go even lower, maybe down to $2,000.” I held back from placing an order. That night, it V-shaped rebounded, soaring past $10,000. I didn’t even get a full position that time, living with regret through the entire bull run.

The fourth was in 2022 during the bear market. The Fed’s rate hikes pushed Bitcoin from over $60k down to $15k. Starting from $20k, I kept reviewing lessons from the previous three cycles, but my core obsession remained unchanged: I drew support lines on the candlesticks, followed analyst predictions daily, waiting for that “iron bottom” to go all-in. When the price rose from $15k to $30k, I only built a 10% position, with most funds still on the sidelines waiting for a pullback.

These four instances, repeatedly falling into the same trap, gradually made me realize: it’s not about poor technical skills or lack of information. The root problem was that I misunderstood what “bottom-fishing” really meant.

I finally understood: No one can precisely catch the lowest point

Previously, I believed that top traders must buy exactly at the bottom and sell at the top. Missing the bottom meant I wasn’t skilled enough. But after four cycles, I realized: this isn’t a skill issue; it’s an impossible task.

First, the Bitcoin bottom is never a single point but a range. Looking back at the four bear markets, none of them hit a single lowest point and then immediately took off: late 2015’s bottom took five months to form, late 2019’s bottom lasted three months, and after 2020’s $312, it also oscillated for half a year. Is there really a “lowest point” you can see at a glance? Most of the time, what you call “waiting for lower prices” is just wasting opportunities to build positions within the bottom range. By the time you react, the bottom has already passed.

Second, greed and fear amplify your misjudgments. When prices are already at the end of a bear market, and the market is full of bearish voices—saying “it will fall 90%,” “Bitcoin will go to zero”—you already think it’s cheap. But if you wait for even lower, you subconsciously believe the most pessimistic forecasts. The longer you wait, the more hesitant you become. When the market finally rises, you’re even less willing to chase. I experienced this three times: knowing valuations were at historical lows, but being scared by “even lower” predictions, I missed the chance to build positions.

Third, we profit from the transition from bear to bull, not from “the few percentage points from the bottom to the start.” Many people, like I used to, obsess over those small dips, thinking missing the lowest means losing. But look back: from $15k to $69k, even if you bought at $20k, you’d have tripled your money. Obsessing over a few thousand points of difference causes you to miss the big trend of tens of thousands of points. I calculated that if I hadn’t been obsessed with the absolute bottom in those three cycles and had built positions gradually within the bottom range, my returns would have been at least twice what I actually achieved. That obsession cost me big gains.

It’s only through experience that I learned: Left-side positioning is the right way for ordinary traders

After understanding all this, I completely changed my approach in this cycle: I no longer try to guess the exact bottom. Instead, I focus on left-side positioning—building positions gradually after confirming we’re nearing the end of the bear market. I buy more as prices fall, regardless of where the bottom is, only caring about how many coins I hold.

When Bitcoin hit $60k, I started long-term positions. Many friends said I was “early,” expecting it to fall to $50k or lower. But I knew this was a reasonable range after the bear correction, consistent with my judgment of the bottom. I didn’t need anyone to confirm “this is the bottom.”

During this period of left-side positioning, I summarized three practical lessons, all learned through losses:

Set the bottom range first, then place orders gradually—don’t wait for the exact lowest point

I don’t try to guess “which day will be the lowest.” Instead, I analyze historical valuations, declines, and cycles to estimate a bottom range. For example, I judged Bitcoin’s bottom this cycle to be between $15k and $30k. I started buying at $30k, adding more every 10% drop, and fully loaded at $15k. Whether the actual bottom is $15k or $13k, I’ve already accumulated enough coins within the range. This way, I avoid missing out and don’t get stuck with full positions at the worst time.

Left-side trading earns “uncertain” money; accepting unrealized losses is a necessary lesson

Many avoid left-side trading because it involves potential dips and floating losses. But I’ve accepted this: as long as you’re not all-in, unrealized losses are temporary. The coins you hold at the bottom of the bear market will multiply in the bull. When I started at $60k, I was over 20% in the red, but I knew I was in for the long haul. That temporary loss is worth the future multiple gains.

When transitioning from bear to bull, opportunities on the right side are limited

Many say, “I’ll wait for the trend to confirm before entering.” But Bitcoin’s bull runs are often sudden and unexpected—there’s rarely a perfect “confirmation” signal. Waiting for moving averages to turn bullish or for everyone to shout “bull market,” the price is already well above the bottom range. Entering late means higher costs and greater risks. For ordinary traders, accumulating gradually during the late bear stage is safer and more cost-effective than chasing after the market’s initial surge.

Finally, I want to say: Investing is about transforming cognition and learning from mistakes

After four cycles of bull and bear markets, my biggest takeaway isn’t how much money I made, but that I finally broke free from this deeply ingrained obsession: we don’t need to be gods, nor do we need to guess the top or bottom. We just need to do things with high probability—buying when others are panicking, when prices are cheap, and holding steadily until the bull market arrives.

If you’re like I was, waiting for the lowest point at the end of each bear cycle and always missing out, try my approach: let go of the obsession with “precise bottom-fishing,” embrace gradual left-side positioning. You’ll find that making money is much simpler than you think—you don’t need to catch every wave; just ride the big trend of the market’s transition from bear to bull.

This is the experience I’ve gained from four cycles of pitfalls. I hope you won’t have to go through the same.