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A Shorthanded Panama Cannot Stop the Grid Army

Early morning on June 24, the second round of Group L at the 2026 USA-Canada-Mexico World Cup will feature Panama versus Croatia. With a victory in the first match, Croatia is just one step away from qualifying early. Facing a depleted Panama team with a significant gap in strength, I believe Croatia will win by a large margin:

First, looking at the situation and adjustment space of both teams in the first round, Croatia’s desire to win and their ability to correct mistakes are far superior to Panama’s. In the first match against a strong England, Croatia narrowly lost 2-4 in an attacking battle. Although they conceded goals, the team quickly equalized twice, with goals from Baturoina and Musa proving that their front-line impact is fully online. The goals conceded in that game were more due to temporary defensive lapses when facing England’s top-tier forwards, rather than a collapse of the overall system. In contrast, Panama, in their first match against Ghana, delivered impressive stats with 62% possession and 11 shots, but they failed to score until stoppage time, ultimately being defeated by a last-minute goal. This exposed a fatal weakness in their finishing ability—having the advantage in the game but failing to convert it into goals. When facing truly top-tier teams, this “dominating but not scoring” problem will only be magnified.

More importantly, Croatia’s midfield depth and tournament experience are advantages that Panama simply cannot match. This could very well be Modric’s last World Cup in his career. In the first match against England, his running data still ranked among the top in the team. Even in the twilight of his career, his control of the game’s rhythm and his orchestration of attack-defense transitions remain the core confidence of this grid team. Looking back at the past two World Cups, Croatia has always been a “slow-starting strong team,” performing modestly in the first round in 2018 and 2022, then immediately adjusting in the second round to deliver dominant performances. This team inherently carries resilience to bounce back from adversity. Panama, on the other hand, is only participating in the World Cup for the second time. In their previous appearance against European powerhouses, they suffered consecutive 0-3 defeats to Belgium and a 1-6 loss to England. Facing such high-level tactical literacy and match intensity, their defense will struggle to remain stable for 90 minutes.

In terms of roster strength disparity, the two teams are simply not in the same league. According to the transfer market valuation, Panama’s total team value is just over 30 million euros, less than one-tenth of Croatia’s entire team. The defense led by Gvardiol, honed through years of top-tier league competitions, will hardly give Panama’s inefficient frontline many effective chances. Meanwhile, in the midfield and forward lines, players like Modric, Sucic, and Baturoina have fully matured, and with seasoned veterans like Perisic, they are fully capable of maintaining high-pressure assaults on Panama’s defense. Panama’s defense already showed issues with focus lapses in the first match. Under Croatia’s continuous rhythm changes and multi-point attacks, it’s easy for them to make consecutive mistakes in the second half, giving Croatia opportunities to extend their lead.

Moreover, Croatia now has no room for retreat. Another loss would almost eliminate them from the tournament early, and even a draw would depend on the result of another match to determine their fate. For this veteran team, which has reached the World Cup semifinals twice, won a runner-up medal once, and finished third twice, a commanding victory in the second group stage match to regain control over their qualification prospects would be the best gift they could give to their legendary veteran “last dance.”