monolithvc

When you work with a crypto project and finally meet the founder

HIP-4 is accelerating.
1. $21.5M notional volume, 5K unique traders, $95K OI
2. More daily BTC market volume than any other prediction market — including Kalshi and Polymarket
Frontends already integrating HIP-4 include @Outcomexyz, @Markets_xyz, @novadotmarkets, @StratiumX, an aggregator that places outcome markets alongside HIP-3 perpetuals in one interface
@Outcomexyz — they are the first mover
HIP-4’s debut market is a daily BTC price prediction deployed by Outcomexyz (similar to what @tradexyz did to HIP-3)
And here’s what makes them different from everyone else building here:
> to deploy

HIP-4 launched just 4 days ago, and already has $19M notional volume
But what comes next matters more
The roadmap looks like:
1/ multi-outcome markets — contracts are binary right now (yes/no). Next step is complex scenarios with multiple possible outcomes. Elections, sports, macro events rarely have just two options
2/ permissionless deployment for HIP-4 — curated markets first, then open builder deployment. The same path HIP-3 already walked
3/ developers can deploy recurring event markets, liquidity providers can quote probability instruments alongside traditional markets
4/ deeper HyperEVM

the random guy in the club:

Yesterday, MegaETH held its TGE, with the token now trading in the $1.5B–$2B range
Sonar sale participants from November, who entered at a $1B FDV, are currently sitting on 50%–100% returns
That implies 80%+ APR — an early sign of speculative capital returning
Let’s see how it goes from here

We joined Web3 Committee discussion — a closed investor roundtable on prediction markets
Gregg Yorkison (early @Polymarket equity holder) shared hot takes about PMs
Here's the key insights 🧵
1. PMs market shift
David Solomon (@GoldmanSachs CEO) said publicly he spent 2 hours with Polymarket & Kalshi CEOs, and that prediction markets will be part of Goldman's business. ICE followed with a $2B investment
2. On inefficiencies (our edge right now):
60% of Polymarket volume is AI agents running microtransactions and arbitrage. The market is still so inefficient you can find better odds on predicti

Gate just listed pre-IPO perpetuals for @Polymarket and @Kalshi (up to 10x leverage)
Neither company has announced IPO plans
There’s no public equity
Also access is limited to secondary platforms
So this is purely synthetic exposure
But @Gate listed them anyway, and did it faster than HL
Strange that @HyperliquidX still doesn’t offer these markets
When does @ventuals catch up?

Polymarket just dropped a black swan moment
@Polymarket announced a new collateral token (Polymarket USD), replacing USDC.e on the platform
Totally logical move, which is positive for traders
But @predictdotfun had an active market: "Polymarket FDV above ___ one day after launch?"
1. The moment Polymarket USD launched, added clarification that flipped orderbook instantly
2. Now any token issued by Polymarket that meets rules criteria counts toward FDV, including the stablecoin
3. Polymarket USD market cap is under $1B, so every option in that market > went straight to zero
The logic failure h

Today @Polymarket introduces fees
Core metrics are already near ATH
2024 (election cycle):
• Volume: $532M
• OI: $275M
2026:
• Volume: $408M
• OI: $460M (~2x vs 2024)
Volume is dropped 23%, but capital per market is higher
The key variable now is monetization
Zero-fee liquidity was always @Polymarket’s core edge (especially for market makers and arbitrageurs)
Fees change that directly:
> market makers reprice their edge
> liquidity depth potentially thins out (spreads will increase)
> casual users won't notice (until the odds get worse)
Sustainable revenue is smart long-term, but will the

Today @Polymarket introduces fees
Core metrics are already near ATH
2024 (election cycle):
• Volume: $532M
• OI: $275M
2026:
• Volume: $408M
• OI: $460M (~2x vs 2024)
Volume is dropped 23%, but capital per market is higher
The key variable now is monetization
Zero-fee liquidity was always @Polymarket's core edge (especially for market makers and arbitrageurs)
Fees change that directly:
> market makers reprice their edge
> liquidity depth potentially thins out (spreads will increase)
> casual users won't notice (until the odds get worse)
Sustainable revenue is smart long-term, but will liqu

Hyperliquid started as a crypto perps DEX
But now, almost 50% of the total volume is HIP-3
52.3% — Crypto
47.7% — HIP-3
And HIP-3 is accelerating:
> $1.7B OI (+25% WoW growth)
> already 43% of total revenue
Notably, at first, it was just a part of ecosystem
@chameleon_jeff and team positioned HIP-3 as an extension — but it is now rapidly approaching a point where it could become the #1 revenue driver on Hyperliquid