monolithvc

Biggest NFL market this week: @Colts vs @Commanders
1. @Kalshi holds 83% of the liquidity, but the book is heavily one-sided. You can buy $280K at 65¢. Try selling at the best bid of 64¢, and only $87 is waiting
2. @Polymarket has the most balanced book: $17.9K available to buy and $36.6K to sell into
3. @Novig entire book is $20.6K, with $20.3K sitting within ±3¢
4. @predictdotfun has just $852 within 1¢, excluding orders parked at 99¢
5. @trylimitless has exactly zero within 1¢. Its 2.4¢ spread puts both sides outside that range. Even the nearest orders offer only $52 to buy and $19 to sell

$999M into US spot BTC ETFs on Sept 21.
Biggest daily net inflow of 2026.
ETF demand was already building before BTC broke $86K. So that spot demand could help sustain the rally after the short squeeze loses steam.
Now we watch whether the buying continues.

$999M into US spot BTC ETFs on Sept 21.
Biggest daily net inflow of 2026.
ETF demand was already building before BTC broke $86K. So that spot demand could help sustain the rally after the short squeeze loses steam.
Now we watch whether the buying continues.

Polymarket Perps vs Kalshi Perps, one week in.
Polymarket went live publicly on Sep 3. Kalshi has been running since Jun 3.
Last 24h:
@Polymarket – $111.7M volume, $48.5M OI, 67 markets
@Kalshi – $885M volume, $25.3M OI, 18 markets
Now look at ETH:
@HyperliquidX – $1.5B volume, $2.35B OI
@Kalshi – $373M volume, $3.4M OI
@Lighter_xyz – $272M volume, $220M OI
@Polymarket – $6.3M volume, $9.1M OI
Kalshi is doing 25% of Hyperliquid's ETH volume with 0.14% of its Open Interest
Polymarket is the mirror image. It does 1/6th of Kalshi's ETH volume and still holds 2.3x its Open Interest.
Where they act

.@Kalshi has done almost 3x @Polymarket's volume in 2026.
YTD through Aug 29:
@Kalshi: $174.5B
@Polymarket: $64.9B
Kalshi now holds 73% of combined volume between the two.
Sports did most of the work.
$127.2B, or 73% of all @Kalshi volume, came from sports. That alone is almost 2x @Polymarket’s entire YTD volume.
Sports combos: $36.4B
Basketball: $25.8B
Tennis: $22.4B
Soccer: $16.4B
Baseball: $10.0B
@Kalshi is also doing 2.8x Polymarket’s crypto volume: $22.5B vs $8B.
Politics is still @Polymarket territory: $8.4B vs $2.3B.
Next big election or major tournament, liquidity already knows where t

~$5B in USDC is already sitting on Hyperliquid.
Starting today, yield from that balance begins accruing for $HYPE buybacks.
Under AQA v2, around 90% of cost-adjusted reserve yield flows to Assistance Fund.
AF is already buying HYPE at a ~$709M annualized pace, based on the last 30D. USDC sharing could add another ~$180M.
That takes it close to $900M a year.
+$15M per month.
+25%.
No extra trading volume needed. Capital already on the venue starts feeding the buyback too.
First payment lands October 3.
These numbers won’t be this small again.
Hyperliquid.

Crypto volatility is back near 2023 lows.
1W ATM IV has fallen to roughly 26%. 1M sits near 33%, while 3M and 6M remain around 38–40%.
Market is pricing very little movement now, but more uncertainty further out.
Similar compression appeared in August–September 2023 and 2025. Both periods were followed by a sharp repricing in volatility.
Will this time be different?

We compared the same 14D window before and after TGE for @grvt_io, @paradex and @edgeX_exchange.
TGE day excluded. Figures show average daily volume and average daily OI/TVL snapshots.
Each window is benchmarked against Hyperliquid over the exact same dates.
@grvt_io
Volume:
GRVT: $1.07B vs $459M (-57%)
Hyperliquid: $7.23B vs $6.19B (-14%)
GRVT underperformed Hyperliquid by 43 percentage points.
OI:
GRVT: $358M vs $348M (-3%)
Hyperliquid: $11.13B vs $10.76B (-3%)
GRVT stayed broadly in line with Hyperliquid.
TVL:
GRVT: $37.4M → $35.9M (-4%)
Hyperliquid: $6.10B → $6.06B (-1%)
GRVT underperforme

We compared the same 14D window before and after TGE for @grvt_io, @paradex and @edgeX_exchange.
TGE day excluded. Figures show average daily volume and average daily OI/TVL snapshots.
Each window is benchmarked against Hyperliquid over the exact same dates.
@grvt_io
Volume:
GRVT: $1.07B vs $459M (-57%)
Hyperliquid: $7.23B vs $6.19B (-14%)
GRVT underperformed Hyperliquid by 43 percentage points.
OI:
GRVT: $358M vs $348M (-3%)
Hyperliquid: $11.13B vs $10.76B (-3%)
GRVT stayed broadly in line with Hyperliquid.
TVL:
GRVT: $37.4M → $35.9M (-4%)
Hyperliquid: $6.10B → $6.06B (-1%)
GRVT underperforme

my entire X feed today