We joined Web3 Committee discussion — a closed investor roundtable on prediction markets

Gregg Yorkison (early @Polymarket equity holder) shared hot takes about PMs
Here's the key insights 🧵
1. PMs market shift
David Solomon (@GoldmanSachs CEO) said publicly he spent 2 hours with Polymarket & Kalshi CEOs, and that prediction markets will be part of Goldman's business. ICE followed with a $2B investment
2. On inefficiencies (our edge right now):
60% of Polymarket volume is AI agents running microtransactions and arbitrage. The market is still so inefficient you can find better odds on prediction markets than on traditional bookmakers. This is crypto 2017-level arb, but closing fast
3. On the infra roadmap:
@Polymarket is planning to ditch the Polygon chain (too slow, order fill issues) and either launch their own L2 on Ethereum or migrate to a faster chain. They're also replacing the UMA oracle — its $50M market cap vs. Polymarket's TVL is a manipulation risk. Their own token & oracle system solves this
4. On the 5Y picture:
There will be a major incident first (fraud, manipulation at scale) > regulation follows > then mainstream adoption. After that — billboards, corporate decision-making tools, media truth layers. Futarchy becomes real
5. The best way to earn now:
- Direct late-stage equity (what Greg did)
- Running arb/stat strategies on-platform and accumulating airdrop eligibility
- Token warrants if you get into a round (free upside on top of equity)
We're ~80% allocated to @Polymarket & @Kalshi within the PMs space and continue to increase our exposure.