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That prediction market for World—the one that has been grabbing attention like crazy and even boasted it would go to Robinhood Chain—does it finally look like it has started private testing?
Over the past few days, World’s average daily nominal trading volume has been about $400,000–$600,000, and on the day before the trolling about going to Robinhood Chain, nominal trading volume briefly exceeded $1.2 million.
Currently, World already has sports markets for fast crypto like BTC Up or Down and World Cup events, with an average daily number of trading addresses of about 1–3k.
SOL-3.43%
BTC-2.92%
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Polymarket Builders 连续两周名义交易量超过 4 亿美元
周交易量超过 1,000 万美元的 Builder 有:
- betmoar $98.8m
- Gate $84.5m
- traderline $71m
- polymtrade $17m
- SpreadCore xyz $12.3m
- PolymarketScan org $11.7m
- MetaMask $11.6m
- MagicMarkets $11.3m
- Jupiter $10.7m
JUP1.28%
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Polymarket Sports raises the Taker Fees parameter from 0.03 to 0.05, with a nearly 67% increase
Based on the fee formulas for each prediction market or segment:
- Predict Fun = 0.02 × min(p, 1-p)
- Limitless = 0.03 × min(p, 1-p)
- Polymarket Sports = 0.03 × p × (1-p) (will later be 0.05 × p × (1-p) )
- Polymarket Politics/Finance/Tech = 0.04 × p × (1-p)
- Polymarket Culture = 0.05 × p × (1-p)
- Polymarket Crypto = 0.072 × p × (1-p)
- Kalshi general = 0.07 × p × (1-p) , and there is cent-level rounding
Around 50c (Figure 1), Predict Fun’s raw fee is $0.0100 per share; Limitless is $0.0150 per s
KALSHI0.38%
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Polymarket officially launches perpetual contract trading
In addition to crypto, Polymarket Perps also supports TradFi commodities and index trading.
From a market understanding perspective, Polymarket is far stronger than Kalshi in this regard. Currently, Kalshi Perps has only listed crypto assets.
Kalshi Perps' average daily trading volume over the past week was roughly $200-300 million, which appears to be well below expectations.
KALSHI0.38%
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Robinhood Chain Trenches
- Cash Cat breaks $100 million market cap
- Robinhood Chain DEX daily trading volume exceeds $560 million
- Daily active addresses nearing 200k, with over 140k new addresses trading for the first time
- Nearly 16k new tokens created in a single day
- 7 Robinhood Chain Meme tokens have a market cap exceeding $1 million
MEME-2.62%
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Chrome Web Store officially bans prediction market extensions
Google announced in early July its 2026 policy update: explicitly listing prediction markets as prohibited products!
Any Chrome extension that facilitates or supports real-money transactions on prediction outcomes will be removed. Enforcement begins August 1.
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Hyperliquid HIP-4 event contracts have fallen back to average after experiencing a small trading volume spike last week
The daily nominal trading volume has dropped from a peak of $30 million to about $3 million, returning to the average level
Insufficient supply of event contracts may be one of the reasons
The number of active markets for HIP-4 has dropped from over 130 last week to less than 40
4-3.28%
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Polymarket vs Kalshi
Sports trading volume Kalshi : Polymarket = 7 : 3
Non-sports trading volume from early June Kalshi : Polymarket = 8.5 : 1.5
Crypto trading volume from the beginning of the year Kalshi : Polymarket = 1 : 9 to Kalshi : Polymarket = 8 : 2
Political trading volume Kalshi : Polymarket = 0.3 : 9.7
Kalshi is strong in sports, with Crypto trading volume quickly catching up and surpassing; Polymarket firmly holds the real-world influence brought by politics.
KALSHI0.38%
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In the past week, Polymarket Builders' weekly notional trading volume reached $500 million, hitting an all-time high.
- Gate has been the top trading volume Builder for two consecutive weeks, and was the only one to exceed $100 million in that week.
- Gate, betmoar, and Traderline formed the top three Polymarket Builders, accounting for over 60% of the trading volume share.
Builders with weekly notional trading volume over $10 million:
- Gate $118m
- betmoar $97m
- Traderline $95.8m
- MagicMarkets $17.6m
- Polymtrade $16.4m
- SpreadCore xyz $15.6m
- MetaMask $13.9m
- Jupiter $13.5m
- Polymarke
JUP1.28%
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In June, the nominal trading volume of the prediction market exceeded $50 billion for the first time in history.
Nominal trading volume increased 75% month-over-month, and the World Cup frenzy and traffic were truly insane.
The prediction market maintains a pattern where the strong grow stronger:
- Kalshi's single-month nominal trading volume reached $33 billion, up over 80% month-over-month.
- Polymarket reached $14.5 billion, making it one of only two prediction markets to break the $10 billion level in a single month.
- Rothera was the biggest highlight of the month, reaching $2.1 billion,
KALSHI0.38%
HOOD-1.90%
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As the World Cup progresses, the nominal weekly trading volume of the prediction market has exceeded $15 billion, with open interest surpassing $2 billion.
- Kalshi's weekly nominal trading volume broke $10 billion, with open interest reaching $1.3 billion.
- Polymarket's weekly nominal trading volume reached $3.6 billion, making it the only other prediction market to break the billion-dollar mark, with open interest at $560 million.
- Robinhood's self-built compliant prediction market, Rothera, was the biggest surprise of this round, with weekly nominal trading volume exceeding $900 mil
KALSHI0.38%
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Hyperliquid HIP-4 starting to pick up? 🧐
HIP-4 event contract daily trading volume nearly $30 million, reaching an all-time high
It seems that the World Cup events are starting to see good trading activity on HIP-4.
4-3.28%
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The World Cup has officially entered the knockout stage.
The total notional trading volume of Predict Fun's World Cup market has exceeded $600 million, with over 1 million transactions executed, accumulating more than $230k in fees.
Key data for Predict Fun's World Cup market:
- Daily average notional trading volume remains stable at around $8 million
- Daily average number of cross-market traders consistently exceeds 45k
- Daily average number of transactions remains stable at over 60k
- Daily average fees captured are nearly $10k
Predict Fun's $2 million World Cup prize pool is
FUN-6.56%
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The entire Trump family is cashing in on political influence!
Donald Trump Jr. became a strategic advisor to Kalshi in early 2025 and received Kalshi equity worth about $300k at the time.
Kalshi was valued at less than $2 billion then, but its valuation has since surged 20 times.
Based on Kalshi’s latest fundraising at a $40 billion valuation in Q3 of this year, Donald Trump Jr.’s Kalshi equity could be worth several million dollars (with a maximum potential of up to $6 million).
However, as Kalshi continues to raise funds and issue new shares, Donald Trump Jr.’s stake has likely been signific
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The entire Trump family is cashing in on their political influence!
Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., received Kalshi equity worth approximately $300k at the time when he became a strategic advisor to Kalshi in early 2025.
At that time, Kalshi's valuation was less than $2 billion, but it has now surged by 20 times.
Based on Kalshi's latest fundraising in Q3 of this year at a $40 billion valuation, the value of Donald Trump Jr.'s Kalshi equity could be well over several million dollars (with a potential maximum of up to $6 million).
However, as Kalshi continues to raise funds and is
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Polymarket pUSD total supply exceeds $500 million, total holders exceed 1 million
From the distribution of Polymarket user holder balances:
- 567 addresses hold more than 100k pUSD, meaning 0.06% of addresses hold 55.34% of pUSD balances, among which 45 addresses hold more than 1 million pUSD
- Addresses holding more than 1,000 pUSD account for 2.76%, collectively holding 90.34% of pUSD balances
- 51.96% of holders hold less than 10 pUSD, accounting for only 0.19% of pUSD balances
pUSD represents the cash flow balance of Polymarket users. Although some users have gone all-in on positions, the
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Gone mad
Kalshi seeks a new round of funding at a $40 billion valuation, which could be completed as soon as Q3
Kalshi has doubled its valuation twice this year, and it has doubled four times in the past year and a half
- June 2025: $2 billion valuation
- October 2025: $5 billion valuation
- November 2025: $11 billion valuation
- March–May 2026: $22 billion valuation
- Q3 2026 (in talks): $40 billion valuation
Aside from AI, prediction markets are one of the few areas still seeing such crazy funding
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The World Cup event prediction markets on mainstream chains have accumulated over $3.5 billion in trading volume, attracting nearly 300k traders to participate.
Since the start of the tournament, Polymarket and Predict Fun have maintained a daily active trading user ratio of approximately 2:1, with the former around 50k daily active users and the latter close to 25k.
However, in terms of new users, Predict Fun is now on par with Polymarket, with 2.8k to 5k new users joining daily for World Cup event trading.
Although there is still a gap in overall trading volume, with Polymarket holding
FUN-6.56%
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