$INIT
UPDATE
#INIT is getting a good volume here. We can see 60%+ gain here ✍🏻
#INITUSDT #INITBTC

11.9 ZEC Long/Short Strategy (Review)
[Trade Details]: $ZEC
4 winning trades in total, no losing trades
Long entered at 1190, exited at 1230, with 40 points of upside
Short entered at 1230, exited at 1190, with 40 points of downside

[Strategy Review]:
The strategy focused mainly on Range 4; neither the long nor short trades played out, and a downtrend has formed

[Current Market]:
A downtrend channel has formed on the higher timeframe, with a target of 1120. The current price is consolidating around 1140, back at Range 5. A downside breakout is more likely. Market depth shows ample short mom

What is survivorship bias? Why can studying only coins that still exist today overestimate a strategy’s returns?

In the cryptocurrency market, some traders select currently popular and actively traded coins for historical backtesting, then use the results to assess whether a strategy works. But if they ignore projects that have been delisted, lost liquidity over time, or performed extremely poorly, the backtest results may be systematically biased. This phenomenon is called survivorship bias.

First, what is survivorship bias?

It refers to focusing only on objects that still exist or have su

What Is the Brier Score? How Can We Mathematically Evaluate the Quality of a Trading Model’s Probability Predictions?

In crypto quantitative trading, a model can often correctly predict the direction of price movements without its probabilities being reliable. For example, if a model predicts a 90% probability that BTC will rise, but the price actually rises only 60% of the time for similar predictions, it may be overconfident. The Brier score can help us evaluate the error between probability predictions and actual outcomes.

First, what is the Brier score?

For binary predictions, the Brier

Ondo Falls Below All 3 Daily EMAs as Selling Pressure Intensifies
ONDO remains tilted toward a downtrend.
As of November 9, ONDO is trading around $0.352, with the price still sitting below all three key daily EMAs. Specifically, the EMA20 is around $0.4009, the EMA50 is at $0.4186, and the EMA200 is near $0.3866. This indicates that the medium-term structure remains weak, even though the price is showing signs of slight stabilization on shorter timeframes.
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
Educational content, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell,

Few days ago I shared my thoughts on Bitcoin price action ahead of the US midterm elections
The initial move above $80K after the elections looked promising but BTC couldn’t hold that recovery
Sellers eventually took control again, price lost the $75.5K level I was watching, and Bitcoin dropped towards the $73K - $72.5K zone I mentioned earlier
So far that downside scenario has played out
What’s interesting is that we’re now seeing the historical midterm weakness continue to unfold, although I wouldn’t attribute the entire move to the elections
For now, I’d rather see $Bitcoin reclaim $75.5K a

Optimistically, this means the peak six years ago was lower than the current low.
bitcoin:native overall trending upward

What is backtest overfitting? Why might a strategy with perfect historical performance fail completely in live trading?

In cryptocurrency trading, some people keep adjusting indicator parameters, take-profit and stop-loss levels, and entry conditions until backtest returns are maximized. But better historical performance does not necessarily mean a more reliable strategy. Overfitting historical data can instead make a strategy less able to adapt to future markets.

First, what is backtest overfitting?

Backtest overfitting is when a strategy becomes excessively adapted to price movements and

When the market is flat, that's when you lose the most.
Why? Because when the market gives you no opportunities, you create them yourself.
After three days of sideways trading, you think, “It has to move soon,” and place a trade.
You lose on that trade, refuse to accept it, and place another.
By the end of the day, the market has moved just 0.5%, but you’re down 8%.
So the key to keeping your hands off isn’t “resisting”—it’s “making sure your hands can’t reach it.”
First: turn it off.
Remove your trading app from your phone’s home screen and bury it in a folder.
Close all the browser tabs on y

$MU DO WE EXPECT A FALSE BREAKOUT?
We definitely can get it.. like this here..

#每周来晒
Thank you for yesterday’s live discussion with Gate.io officials.
#大盘分析
The U.S. CPI report will be released tonight at 10 p.m. The main expectations aren’t too bad—for example, a rise of around 7% in the core index would be positive news. Why? Because the market and U.S. stocks have fallen over the past few days, already pricing in a lot of negative news. Unless this CPI reading, along with inflation, has reached an uncontrollable level, I’m bullish on the cryptocurrency market as a whole.

🏆 Gate breaks into the global top three—giveaway time! 🎁
According to DeFiLlama (November 9), Gate ranked 3rd among global CEXs, with a 24-hour net inflow of $40.66 million.
Let’s celebrate together 💙
🎁 3 winners × 5 USDT
Join now 👇
✅ Follow @Gate_Livezh and @Gate__Live
❤️ Like + repost
💬 What’s a recent win you’re proud of? Share it below! 🏆
📊 Source:

‍#GateLive #Gate

Something to learn from this $Ger40 setup👇
If you know how i trade you would notice my entries always has either an Inducement or an Engineered liquidity....
Well this trade met all my criteria for a potential trade setup except Inducement/Engineered liquidity, i could have easily risked it, but that would mean going against my rules...
A setup can look promising and still not deserve your money if it doesn't meet your trading rules.
One of the easiest ways to lose discipline as a trader is to start making exceptions for setups that look too good to miss. Once you start bending your rules f

Global stock markets suddenly bounce back! The pullback in oil prices is just the trigger—the real drama may only just be beginning

If financial markets were a TV series, the past few days would definitely count as a plot-twist episode.
Geopolitical risks had been mounting, compounded by a correction in tech stocks, and market sentiment had turned gloomy. Just as many investors were getting ready to throw in the towel, signs of easing tensions emerged, oil prices fell, and global stock markets quickly rebounded.
U.S. stocks surged on November 9, with the S&P 500 up about 2.3% and the Nasdaq u

$BTC
BTC View Update:
After the decline on the lower time frame, BTC has been consolidating. The rebound structure isn’t very strong, so there may still be downside risk. I’m also sticking with my previous outlook and will keep watching how price reacts at liquidity levels.
Trading plan: I opened an initial position at 72888. If it drops 2,000 points, I’ll add to the position. I plan to hold for the medium term and ride a major rebound or reversal!

Tonight's CPI: What really affects BTC is not a single number, but expectations for a December Fed rate hike

Tonight, the market is watching U.S. October CPI.

This report comes with a special circumstance: the official release will not include the usual year-over-year CPI and core CPI figures, so the focus is on monthly changes.

The market is mainly watching two indicators:

Monthly CPI: expected to rise 0.3%, after rising 0.6% last month.

Monthly core CPI: expected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.3% last month.

Expectations suggest that overall inflation is showing signs of cooling, but thi

$BTC Price is once again sandwiched between two liquidation clusters.

However, the cluster below, between $73K and $74K, is the larger one, making it the more likely target for today.

Yesterday, leveraged longs became increasingly aggressive, leaving them vulnerable to another leverage flush.

With market structure still looking weak, I don't see enough reason to favor an upside sweep first.

$ONDO #ONDO
Got bounce from support on 1D chart.
Breakout could follow our projection for 60-70% rise✍️