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The probability of a rate hike in October has risen to 70.9%.
The market has already undergone a correction as rate-hike expectations heated up, but the probability is still continuing to rise, indicating that the market clearly has not fully priced in the prospect of higher rates lasting longer.
I think the focus next should be on data such as employment and PCE, and whether they will cause rate-hike expectations to continue heating up.
If expectations continue to rise, BTC will remain under pressure. ​​​#BTC回落至83000美元
BTC+3.27%
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FeaturedAfter Bitcoin surged last night, it fell back again, so I went through the market action from the past few days all over again.
My judgment is now clearer than it was a few days ago:
The market is gradually forming a relatively weak downward structure.
This is not because of any single decline, but because the price action over the past few days has begun to show some fairly clear characteristics:
Slow rises, fast drops.
When prices rise, they grind higher bit by bit over a relatively long period;
but once selling pressure emerges, the pullback accelerates noticeably.
This is actually more wor
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BTC+3.27%
Are you riding with the Meme coin “train,” or following the KOL’s “mouth”?
The Meme sector pulled back this week, with PEPE and WIF retreating from levels where their seven-day gains exceeded 40%. WIF fell over 11% in 24 hours, while PEPE’s market cap dropped back to $1.874 billion. The group was full of lamentations, but my copy-trading account managed the drawdown fairly well because I’ve learned my lesson this time.
I previously followed a KOL’s call post. All the screenshots he shared showed profits, but I lost 15% after following him for three days. Later, I discovered that his strategy w
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MEME+2.05%
PEPE+6.30%
WIF+4.35%
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My Mid-Autumn Festival Cross-Market Trading Experience: Buying U.S. Stock Tokens on Gate
Happy Mid-Autumn Festival! Today I’m not talking about candlestick charts, but something I recently started exploring—stock tokens.
Last month, I enabled stock token trading on Gate, and the first tokenized stock I bought was Tesla. Why did I want to try it? Because besides my crypto positions, I’ve always wanted some exposure to U.S. stocks, but opening a traditional brokerage account is too cumbersome. Also, U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, so when market conditions change, there’s nothing you
TSLAG+0.19%
TSLA+0.50%
ONDO+1.80%
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After BTC returned to 86,000, DOGE surged as much as 22% in a single day, reaching $0.104. Trading volume hit a yearly record, while DOGE also broke above the 200-day moving average ($0.098). Many people’s first reaction to a rally like this is to chase the price, but my view is that a pullback and confirmation after breaking through a key moving average offers the best risk-reward entry point.
My strategy: After DOGE pulls back to the $0.093-$0.095 range, I will build a long position in batches, with a stop-loss at $0.085. This stop-loss level was not chosen arbitrarily—it corresponds to the
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BTC+3.23%
DOGE+2.99%
MEME+2.27%
ETH+2.21%
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Assuming the pullback really comes, how should we choose between BTC, ETH, and altcoins? My own answer is: BTC as the foundation, ETH based on its breakout structure, and altcoins only for short-term upside.
ETH just turned the $2,560 ceiling that had capped it for four weeks into support this week, and its technical structure is much clearer than before. RSI is around 67, not yet overbought, while the MACD histogram has just turned positive. The next level to watch above is $2,760. If $2,560 holds as support, this breakout will be considered firmly established. ETH's advantage is that its val
BTC+3.27%
ETH+2.24%
SOL+3.62%
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#Gate广场中秋团圆局 This morning I explained why the next sector rotation will most likely move toward DeFi and RWA. Below is my selection of popular coins in the DeFi and RWA sectors—not that they will definitely rise, but rather as a watchlist for these sectors.
Key DeFi projects to watch
AAVE
I would place it in the top tier to watch. Aave remains the core DeFi lending protocol, with deposits of approximately $33.2 billion as of September 2026.
MORPHO
The focus is on on-chain lending and non-custodial finance, with its scale and ecosystem activity both worth tracking.
UNI
The DEX leader and the m
RWA+1.53%
AAVE+13.38%
MORPHO+7.69%
UNI+0.53%
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#Gate广场中秋团圆局 Ethereum breaks to a new high since February! And the story is far from over!
ETH+2.24%
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#GateMeme狂欢季 Meme is diverging—three data metrics reveal the direction
Core view: Don’t chase highs; wait for a pullback confirmation. Only touch tokens with volume; ignore those without it entirely.
The Meme sector has been moving in an interesting way recently. It’s neither a broad rally nor a broad decline, but structural divergence—on the same day, some coins rise 30% while others fall 10%. Capital appears to be rotating in a targeted manner, with money flowing only in specific directions.
I’ll break it down using three data metrics.
First, open interest. During the rebound at the beginnin
MEME+2.05%
DOGE+2.99%
PEPE+6.30%
SHIB+3.78%
WIF+4.32%
#GateMeme狂欢季 To be honest, I haven't done much this week. It's not that there were no opportunities—there were too many, which made it harder to act. Robinhood Chain, BSC, and Solana are all active at the same time, along with microduck, FLORK, and MarsCoin. Each has a story, but each also carries the risk of “going to zero once the narrative runs out.”
Reason for staying on the sidelines: Wintermute's report says institutions now account for 72% of over-the-counter trading, but the number of tokens they trade has grown by only 24%, while retail has grown by 76%. This means professional capita
SOL+3.62%
MARSCOIN-9.86%
MEME+2.05%
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$80K has held, but I won't call for a rush at this point
BTC has climbed back above $80K, and market sentiment has clearly improved. But the purpose of this post isn't to call for a trade; it's to put the risks on the table.
First risk signal: daily RSI is overbought. The current daily RSI has risen to 82.93, its highest level since November 2024, clearly indicating short-term overheating pressure. Overbought does not mean an immediate drop, but it does mean the risk-reward of continuing to push higher in the short term is deteriorating.
Second risk signal: whales are taking profits. On-chain
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BTC+3.27%
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#美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate Plaza Mid-Autumn Reunion Gathering
Let’s first look at last night’s market data. On the first trading day after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike took effect, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow up 0.61%, the S&P 500 up 1.14%, and the Nasdaq up 1.69%. Large-cap tech stocks rose across the board, with NVIDIA up 2.54%, Tesla up 2.27%, and Amazon up 2.13%. The semiconductor sector was the undisputed star, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 3.14%, Arm up 8.57%, AMD up 6.36%, and Intel up 7.67%. Among AI concept stocks, Tempus AI led with a 14.8
SPX+4.44%
NAS100+0.64%
NVDA+1.16%
TSLA-0.21%
AMZN-0.28%
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#每周来晒 #Where should idle money go when the bull-bear direction is undecided?
My approach is to set rules in advance and follow them when the time comes, rather than making decisions on the spot.
Step one: Confirm the signal before taking action. I don't want to build a full position before the direction is confirmed. If the market turns bullish, ETH will be the first asset I watch—not because it will necessarily rise the most, but because its price action often confirms whether the market's risk appetite has truly returned.
Step two: Rotate positions in stages instead of going all-in at once.
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ETH+2.24%
GUSD-0.02%
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#CLARITY法案关键投票在即 #Gate广场中秋团圆局
If the bill fails, will crypto regulation really grind to a halt?
One easily overlooked fact is that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, the advancement of U.S. crypto regulation will not come to a standstill.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated clearly on September 15 that regardless of whether the bill ultimately passes, the SEC will continue advancing its crypto asset regulatory agenda. The SEC's “Project Crypto” will focus on three pillars: establishing rules for crypto asset issuance; updating the transfer agent rules, which are nearly 40 years old, to incorp
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#每周来晒 Let the data do the talking—A comparative review of two companies’ Q2 financial results
Reviewing the two companies’ Q2 report cards and using the data to clarify my portfolio logic.
SK Hynix Q2 key figures:
· Revenue of 79.32 trillion Korean won, up 257% year over year
· Operating profit of 60.54 trillion Korean won, up 557% year over year
· Operating margin of 76%, a new all-time high in global semiconductor history
· DRAM revenue of approximately 57.9 trillion Korean won, accounting for 73% of total revenue
· HBM4 officially entered mass production and shipments in Q2; HBM4E samples
SK Hynix+0.43%
SKHY+3.40%
SKHYNIX+2.72%
SAMSUNG+2.25%
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Macroeconomic events are relatively packed this week, and the market will most likely not be too calm.
The three things most worth watching this week are:
First, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision early Thursday morning. The market has already pushed expectations for a September rate hike to around 90%, so what really matters this time is not just whether it raises rates, but also the Fed’s guidance on subsequent policy and how its economic projections and dot plot change.
Second, the CLARITY Act will face a key procedural vote. This concerns the further clarification of the r
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