$80K has held, but I won't call for a rush at this point

BTC has climbed back above $80K, and market sentiment has clearly improved. But the purpose of this post isn't to call for a trade; it's to put the risks on the table.

First risk signal: daily RSI is overbought. The current daily RSI has risen to 82.93, its highest level since November 2024, clearly indicating short-term overheating pressure. Overbought does not mean an immediate drop, but it does mean the risk-reward of continuing to push higher in the short term is deteriorating.

Second risk signal: whales are taking profits. On-chain data shows that whales have realized approximately $88 million in gains. At the same time, on-chain traders' profit ratio has climbed to 25%, which has often coincided with profit-taking and short-term corrections over the past year.

Third risk signal: the macro window. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting will be a key test. Core CPI has fallen to 3%, but market pricing for the rate-cut path carries risks in both directions. If the data comes in strong and rate-cut expectations fail to materialize, risk assets will face short-term pressure.

My approach: $80K I won't chase higher, and will consider adding to my position if there is a pullback to the $77K-$78K support zone. If the $76,996 support is lost, the next major demand zone is around $63K .

The market moving higher is one thing, but “moving higher” and “getting in now” are two different things.
#BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局