I finally got the chance to enter BTC, going long at 803 and placing my stop-loss at 793. Tonight, let’s see whether the ETF can power through 830. I took a look at the ETF activity during this period, and it has all been aggressive buying. If it continues buying tonight, let’s see whether it can break through 830. I estimate that BTC will start surging when the European session opens at 3 p.m. I just don’t know how far it can surge—whether it will break through 812 or, like a few days ago, shoot up 2,000–3,000 points and smash through 830!
I think risking a 1,000-point loss to capture 2,700 points, for a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.7, is a very worthwhile trading setup. If my judgment is wrong and I get stopped out, I’ll accept the loss.
I rarely enter short positions. Calling tops and bottoms is difficult and not repeatable. Trading with the trend makes more money and is less likely to get you wiped out.
Some crypto friends have already started contacting me, asking whether I can teach futures trading. Sorry, BTB Research and I do not teach futures trading; we only teach spot trading. If you can’t make money trading spot, you’ll die even faster trading futures! For example, I had anticipated this wave of gains in advance; I just didn’t expect it to rise this much. But that doesn’t affect the BTC spot I’m holding—I’d actually love for it to surge straight to 126 in September. So I’m not emotionally affected at all. But if you went short at 650–670 when the uptrend started, you must be suffering terribly now. Whether it’s BTC or altcoins, if you get the direction wrong, why trade futures? If you can’t even read the trend correctly and trade futures without a stop-loss, you’ll definitely end up suffering massive losses. So there’s no need to learn futures trading; focus on doing spot trading well.
But I have to admit that if you truly master futures trading and can achieve consistent profits, you don’t need much capital—100 USDT or 1,000 USDT. With a 50% or 40% win rate and a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, suppose you make three trades, win one, and lose two. Assuming you lose 100 USDT once and make 300 USDT once, based on the win rate, you lose 200 USDT on two trades and make 300 USDT on one, for a net profit of 100 USDT. As you advance, improving your win rate and risk-reward ratio, and eventually reaching the level where you can profit from both trend-following and countertrend moves across all 18 levels, as long as you maintain this rhythm and let time work for you, I won’t say you’ll achieve financial freedom, but at least your living expenses won’t be a problem.
This is the complete path to futures trading, all the way to the ultimate method. If you can’t understand it or don’t have this level of insight, I still recommend that you stay away from futures trading, or you’ll lose everything.
$BTC

#BessentPlansToShakeBondBears
Bessent vs. The Bond Vigilantes: What Treasury Liquidity Intervention Means for Crypto and Global Liquidity
The global macro landscape is witnessing a structural shift. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken direct aim at rising long-term government borrowing costs, doubling the Treasury’s planned debt buyback program for 10-year to 30-year securities from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.
This aggressive intervention often referred to as a "yield cap attempt" is designed to squeeze short-sellers, lower benchmark yields, and stabilize the $32+ trillion Treasury market. However, bond vigilantes are pushing back, keeping 10-year and 30-year yields near multi-year highs amidst expanding federal debt and massive corporate issuance.
For Web3 investors and crypto traders on Gate.io, understanding this macro friction is critical. When sovereign bond markets shake, digital asset liquidity reacts instantly.
1. The Core Macro Conflict: Treasury Buybacks vs. Fiscal Deficits
At its core, the issue stems from fundamental supply and demand mechanics:
* The Fiscal Pressure: US sovereign debt has surged past $40 trillion, pushing debt service costs to record levels.
* Competing Demands: Massive government deficit spending, combined with corporate bond issuance particularly Big Tech hyperscalers raising funds for AI data center infrastructure is sucking capital out of traditional markets.
* The Policy Tool: Secretary Bessent’s expanded debt buyback program aims to retire illiquid off-the-run Treasuries and replace them with short-dated bills, effectively pulling long-term yield pressures down.
The Catch: While initial buyback announcements caused temporary yield retracements, bond vigilantes continue to demand higher risk premiums due to persistent debt loads and inflation risks.
2. Impact on the Federal Reserve & Central Bank Policy
Bessent’s intervention adds a new layer of complexity to monetary policy:
* Monetary vs. Fiscal Friction: While the Federal Reserve attempts to maintain a data-dependent stance on short-term rates, the Treasury is actively engaging in structural yield management at the long end of the curve.
* Dollar Pressure: Intervention in long-dated sovereign debt, paired with recent currency stabilization efforts, has introduced downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
* Global Liquidity Spillovers: A softer dollar and capping long-term yields historically act as a catalyst for global fiat liquidity growth. When sovereign yield curves steepen uncomfortably, capital naturally seeks higher-yielding, non-sovereign risk assets.
3. The Direct Crypto Transmission Mechanism
How does #BessentPlansToShakeBondBears impact $BTC ,$ETH , and the broader digital asset market?
[Treasury Buybacks / Yield Management]
│
▼
[Suppressed Real Yields & Soft DXY]
│
▼
[Global Liquidity Expansion (M2)]
│
▼
[Risk-On Capital Rotates to Crypto ($BTC / $ETH)]
A. Bitcoin as the Ultimate Fiscal Hedge
As sovereign bond markets face structural friction and real interest rates adjust, institutional capital increasingly treats Bitcoin ($BTC) as a digital macro hedge. Unlike government Treasuries, Bitcoin features a mathematically fixed supply schedule immune to fiscal dilution or debt rollover risks.
B. Stablecoin Demand & On-Chain Yields
A lower or capped yield environment in traditional fixed income makes decentralized finance (DeFi) yields and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) significantly more attractive. As traditional risk-free rates stabilize or fall, capital flows back into USDT/USDC staking, liquidity pools, and copy trading strategies on platforms like Gate.io.
C. Altcoin Risk-On Rotation
When the U.S. Dollar Index weakens due to yield suppression strategies, global risk-on appetite surges. Major layer-1 assets ($ETH,$SOL) and market-leading altcoins typically experience accelerated capital inflows following periods of macro liquidity expansion.
4. Strategic Market Outlook & Trader Execution
To navigate this macroeconomic backdrop on Gate.io, consider the following tactical approaches:
* Monitor DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yields: A sustained breakdown in Treasury yields following buyback implementations serves as an early bull signal for $BTC and major digital assets.
* Utilize Gate Spot & Futures Hedging: Track correlation shifts between macro announcements and crypto volatility spikes. Leverage risk-managed futures positions during major policy releases.
* Optimize Yield Generation: During macro transitions, allocate stable reserves into flexible wealth management products or automated grid trading bots to capture range-bound volatility before the next macro breakout.
Conclusion
The battle between the U.S. Treasury and bond market bears is more than a Wall Street story it is a defining macro narrative for global liquidity. As traditional sovereign debt faces structural realities, decentralized networks and hard digital assets stand as prime beneficiaries. Stay informed, manage risk strictly, and position your portfolio for the shifting global capital landscape.
#Gate股票观点挑战
#GateSquare
@Gate_Square

The most important verbal signal from the CFTC advisory meeting: CFTC Chair Selig said he is primarily hoping Congress will pass the CLARITY Act. If the bill remains stalled in the Senate, he has instructed the internal team to begin drafting regulatory rules for the crypto market based on the agency’s existing statutory authority, covering exchanges, leveraged trading, and on-chain protocols, using an administrative rulemaking path to fill regulatory gaps. The Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in mid-September remains a key milestone. $BTC ‌