#BTC期权大额到期6.4万美元成关键点 63k level lost + $1.4 billion in options expiring—how can retail investors avoid the whale sell-off’s chain of traps?
I. What exactly is happening in the market right now?
Let’s start with the asset everyone cares about most—Bitcoin (BTC).
As of now, the price is hovering around $63.4k, down roughly 0.1% on the day. Don’t be fooled by the small decline; there is considerable undercurrent beneath the surface. The biggest development has been the “series of liquidations” from last night through today. According to the latest data, total liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours reached as much as $212 million! Long liquidations accounted for the absolute majority. Just in the past hour, because Bitcoin fell below $63k, the market instantly liquidated another $48 million, with long positions getting battered.
Now let’s talk about Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins. ETH is putting up a slightly better showing, struggling above $1,884 and rising 0.32%. XRP and Dogecoin have also posted slight gains. Overall, however, Bitcoin’s market dominance is weakening, with signs that funds are flowing into altcoins. The market’s overall “Fear and Greed Index” remains stuck at the low level of 29, continuing to stay in the “fear” zone. Everyone is watching from the sidelines, and no one dares to act rashly.
II. Why can’t the crypto market rise despite continuous positive news?
On one hand, the macro environment has indeed provided some breathing room. The U.S. PPI data released last night was flat month over month, and with CPI cooling, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell sharply, with the probability dropping from 40% to around 35%. In theory, this is hugely positive news, but funds have not flooded into the crypto market.
On the other hand, the internal pressure in the crypto market is simply too great.
First is “whale distribution.” On-chain data shows that large holders reduced their positions over the past week, while the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges increased—this is a typical “preparing for sale” signal.
Second, today is an “options meat grinder.” More than $1.4 billion in crypto options expire today, with Bitcoin’s max pain at $64k. To maximize profits, market makers and major players often push prices toward the max pain level, making the market extremely indecisive.
Even more painfully, discussion of “crypto is dead” is heating up on social media. When retail investors’ patience is worn down by this endless volatility and they begin to panic, that is often when the market becomes most agonizing.
III. What should we do in today’s “meat grinder” market?
Here is the key point! With options expiring and whales selling, the current market is a typical “range-bound consolidation.” As ordinary retail investors, we absolutely must not “bet” on the direction—that is something only immortals can do. What we need to do is prepare appropriate strategies.
1. If you are currently holding no or only a small position:
This is definitely not the time to make a heavy investment in a bottom-fishing attempt. Volatility is currently extremely high, making it easy for the market to produce “up-and-down wicks” specifically designed to trigger stop-losses.
Strategy: Keep your hands off the keyboard, watch more and trade less. Enter only after the market establishes a clear direction. If Bitcoin can firmly hold above $64.5k, breaking through the options max pain level, you can consider cautiously following a long position; if it falls below the $62.7k support, don’t rush to catch a falling knife—wait for stabilization.
2. If you hold spot assets and are a long-term investor:
Then it’s even simpler: just “lie flat.”
Strategy: As long as your position is not too large and you are not using leverage, don’t let this kind of intraday volatility scare you. Although whales are selling, the number of addresses held by long-term investors continues to rise, indicating that long-term capital is still quietly accumulating. Instead of staring anxiously at the charts every day, close the app—work when it’s time to work, and spend time with your family when it’s time to spend time with them.
3. If you are trading futures with a relatively large position:
Reduce your position!
Strategy: Volatility is extremely high today, and high leverage at times like this is simply “offering yourself up.” It is recommended that you reduce your position to a level at which you can sleep comfortably, and be sure to set a stop-loss. Don’t think you can just hold through the loss; once the market moves unidirectionally on an options expiry day, it will give you no chance to react.#我的七夕交易分享 $BTC
I. What exactly is happening in the market right now?
Let’s start with the asset everyone cares about most—Bitcoin (BTC).
As of now, the price is hovering around $63.4k, down roughly 0.1% on the day. Don’t be fooled by the small decline; there is considerable undercurrent beneath the surface. The biggest development has been the “series of liquidations” from last night through today. According to the latest data, total liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours reached as much as $212 million! Long liquidations accounted for the absolute majority. Just in the past hour, because Bitcoin fell below $63k, the market instantly liquidated another $48 million, with long positions getting battered.
Now let’s talk about Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins. ETH is putting up a slightly better showing, struggling above $1,884 and rising 0.32%. XRP and Dogecoin have also posted slight gains. Overall, however, Bitcoin’s market dominance is weakening, with signs that funds are flowing into altcoins. The market’s overall “Fear and Greed Index” remains stuck at the low level of 29, continuing to stay in the “fear” zone. Everyone is watching from the sidelines, and no one dares to act rashly.
II. Why can’t the crypto market rise despite continuous positive news?
On one hand, the macro environment has indeed provided some breathing room. The U.S. PPI data released last night was flat month over month, and with CPI cooling, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell sharply, with the probability dropping from 40% to around 35%. In theory, this is hugely positive news, but funds have not flooded into the crypto market.
On the other hand, the internal pressure in the crypto market is simply too great.
First is “whale distribution.” On-chain data shows that large holders reduced their positions over the past week, while the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges increased—this is a typical “preparing for sale” signal.
Second, today is an “options meat grinder.” More than $1.4 billion in crypto options expire today, with Bitcoin’s max pain at $64k. To maximize profits, market makers and major players often push prices toward the max pain level, making the market extremely indecisive.
Even more painfully, discussion of “crypto is dead” is heating up on social media. When retail investors’ patience is worn down by this endless volatility and they begin to panic, that is often when the market becomes most agonizing.
III. What should we do in today’s “meat grinder” market?
Here is the key point! With options expiring and whales selling, the current market is a typical “range-bound consolidation.” As ordinary retail investors, we absolutely must not “bet” on the direction—that is something only immortals can do. What we need to do is prepare appropriate strategies.
1. If you are currently holding no or only a small position:
This is definitely not the time to make a heavy investment in a bottom-fishing attempt. Volatility is currently extremely high, making it easy for the market to produce “up-and-down wicks” specifically designed to trigger stop-losses.
Strategy: Keep your hands off the keyboard, watch more and trade less. Enter only after the market establishes a clear direction. If Bitcoin can firmly hold above $64.5k, breaking through the options max pain level, you can consider cautiously following a long position; if it falls below the $62.7k support, don’t rush to catch a falling knife—wait for stabilization.
2. If you hold spot assets and are a long-term investor:
Then it’s even simpler: just “lie flat.”
Strategy: As long as your position is not too large and you are not using leverage, don’t let this kind of intraday volatility scare you. Although whales are selling, the number of addresses held by long-term investors continues to rise, indicating that long-term capital is still quietly accumulating. Instead of staring anxiously at the charts every day, close the app—work when it’s time to work, and spend time with your family when it’s time to spend time with them.
3. If you are trading futures with a relatively large position:
Reduce your position!
Strategy: Volatility is extremely high today, and high leverage at times like this is simply “offering yourself up.” It is recommended that you reduce your position to a level at which you can sleep comfortably, and be sure to set a stop-loss. Don’t think you can just hold through the loss; once the market moves unidirectionally on an options expiry day, it will give you no chance to react.#我的七夕交易分享 $BTC
