What exactly is the probability of a rate hike in October? I looked at three data sources and found a huge discrepancy
Before Warsh's speech, I spent an hour comparing how different data sources priced the probability of a rate hike in October, and found the differences were unbelievably large.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October jumped from around 21% before the CPI release to 43.7%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged fell from 78.3% to 56.3%. Another source shows that the market sees the probability of a rate hike this month as close to

$BTC is trading within a parallel channel 📊
Price action remains range-bound within the channel. The next decisive move will depend on a breakout or breakdown. Until then, patience is key. Let the chart speak! 🎯

$DOGE Good coins keep rising, while bad coins keep falling.
What kind of coin is Dogecoin? Open the daily chart and compare them—it’s crystal clear.

Good morning, recap
Stay long OP and short Nvidia
Yesterday I asked Doubao, and it said shorting Nvidia has an edge, with a target price of 198-200. Let's see how Doubao's analysis plays out next week
Stick with it

#GateBTCAndETHFuturesVolumeRanksTop3 🚀🏆 Gate BTC & ETH Futures Volume Ranks in the Top 3! 📈🔥
Gate is making waves in the crypto trading world! 🌍 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading volume ranking in the Top 3 highlights the growing attention these digital assets continue to attract. 💎⚡
📊 BTC + ETH = Trading Power!
More market activity, more opportunities to analyze trends, and more excitement for the crypto community!
Are you watching BTC or ETH for your next move? 👀
Trade smart, stay informed, and always manage your risk. 🚀

#USSeptemberPPIBeatsExpectations #ShareWeekly
US September PPI Beats Expectations: Inflation Shock, Bitcoin and What Comes Next
1. US PPI: Inflation Pressure Returns
The US September Producer Price Index (PPI) came in significantly hotter than economists expected, raising fresh concerns about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and financial-market volatility.
Key figures:
Monthly PPI: +1.3% vs. +0.6% expected
Annual PPI: +6.3% vs. +5.5% expected
Energy prices: +10.8% monthly
Gasoline prices: +20.3%
Diesel prices: +21.0%
Crude petroleum: +28.3%
Goods prices: +2.6% monthly
Services prices: +0.8

Sand
With such simple trading, can the second-stage structure of sand trigger a major rally? It depends on whether the sector can form a resonance and gain momentum!
From now on, all trades will be entered with light positions!

#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition
🏆 WCTC S9 — KNOW THE RULES, BUILD YOUR STRATEGY, AND CLIMB THE RANKINGS! 🔥
The excitement is building as Gate’s World Cup Trading Competition Season 9 brings traders together for a new challenge filled with strategy, competition, and opportunities to prove their trading skills! 🚀
WCTC S9 is more than just a trading competition. It is an opportunity to test your market knowledge, improve your decision-making, compete with other traders, and turn your trading strategy into a stronger performance.
Whether you prefer working with a team or competing independ

#GateWCTCS9GlobalTradingCompetition
Gate WCTCS9 Global Trading Competition: A New Stage for Crypto, Stock, and Event-Based Trading
The global financial market is becoming increasingly interconnected, creating new opportunities for traders to explore different asset classes and develop more flexible strategies. Against this backdrop, the brings attention to competitive trading, market analysis, and the growing range of opportunities available through the Gate ecosystem.
Trading competitions are more than a test of short-term performance. They can encourage participants to study market trends,

Damn!
It used to be Card Hobby putting NFTs on-chain; now NFTs are going back to issue physical trading cards.
😂😂 Are we turning the natural order upside down?

#晒出我的持仓收益 It'd be great if it could recover, but isn't pumping it up to squeeze out the shorts just a way to unload

Deutsche Bank Prepares Crypto Custody Launch (Eyes Asia)
5 assets are already on Deutsche Bank's launch list: $BTC , $ETH , USDC, EURC, and EURAU. The bank is preparing to launch crypto custody in Germany and reportedly plans to expand the service into Asian financial centers in 2027
This is built for institutional and corporate clients, not retail users. Deutsche Bank will manage wallets and private keys, while clients can hold assets and transfer them to third parties without building their own custody infrastructure.
The timing is interesting too: Deutsche Bank is targeting 8% annual growth i

Sentiment Shift: Is Returning "Greed" Fueling the Next Leg Up, or Is the Market Overheating?
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted back into the Greed zone as risk appetite improves across the market. With $BTC , $ETH , and other major assets showing signs of strength, market sentiment is recovering quickly. This raises a crucial question: will this greed fuel the next leg higher, or is the market starting to overheat?
Rather than relying on emotions, let's break down the current technical picture for BTC and ETH based on recent price action.
📊 Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis
Looking at the dai

Damn, 10 days and only 5k
How am I supposed to grind this

You can spend years feeling behind, then one decision, one opportunity, or one unexpected connection can change your entire direction
Never underestimate what the next chapter might look like

$EIGEN Current price: 0.2509. The first resistance above is 0.2558 (MA20), while the lower Bollinger Band at 0.2416 is the key short-term support level. A break below 0.2416 would open up further downside, and only holding above 0.2558 would signal a recovery.
At the broader market level, the Fear and Greed Index is at 53, in neutral territory. Sentiment is neither hot nor cold, and capital has no systemic risk appetite. BTC is currently at 81914.8, with MA5 crossing above MA20, the MACD histogram holding bullish at +68.02, and RSI at 58.6. The trend is relatively strong, but the upper Bollin

#日韩股集体大跌
KOSPI +3.3%: A relief bounce or the start of a recovery?
My initial assessment: This appears to be a potential relief rally; however, a single strong session is not enough to confirm a broader recovery. The key question is whether semiconductor stocks can sustain this rebound following the sharp sell-off, or if the gains are merely driven by short covering and bargain hunting.
The gains seen in Samsung Electronics (+3.6%) and SK Hynix (+3.4%) are particularly significant, as the South Korean market is highly sensitive to semiconductor sentiment and the global AI-memory trade.
What is

A few days ago, over dinner in Singapore, we were also talking about the period from mid-June to early July. Every Saturday and Sunday, crypto-stock contracts would trade at a 10% discount, making arbitrage very easy.
Unexpectedly, it happened again this morning, but unfortunately I was asleep at 5 a.m.
Crypto-stock contracts have no pricing power, and apparently no market maker is willing to make markets in them either. The lack of liquidity is why this kind of opportunity appears