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Opinion: Insider information is the key to predicting the market; insiders will drive prices toward the truth

MeNews
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ME News, April 26 (UTC+8). The prediction market platform Kalshi and Polymarket are facing mounting regulatory pressure, including increasing attention from law enforcement agencies in multiple countries and U.S. local governments that have begun to monitor and plan to curb insider trading. However, Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University and one of the founders of prediction market theory, said that insider information is crucial to prediction markets, and that strictly banning insider trading is wrong. He noted that the authenticity of prices driven by insiders is at the core of prediction markets and helps provide accurate information for decision-making. Hanson also suggested that while confidentiality can be protected through contracts, the flow of information is equally important, and the public should not be excluded from participating in the market due to information control. He advised market participants to take risks on their own, participate in a manner similar to playing poker, and emphasized that prediction markets serve as a democratic information aggregation tool, but they are not suitable for everyone. (Source: MLion)
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