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#夏日创作营 June PPI on a month-on-month basis cooled more than expected by -0.3%! The rate-hike probability plunged from 31% to 12.3%.
At 20:30 Beijing time on July 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June PPI data: it unexpectedly fell -0.3% month-on-month (market expectation was flat/previous value +0.1%), mainly dragged down by a 9% plunge in gasoline prices; year-on-year was +2.4% (expected +2.6%/previous value +2.7%), and core PPI rose +0.1% month-on-month (expected +0.3%). This comes after the biggest drop since the pandemic-era on 7/14 evening, when June CPI month-on-month fell -0.4%—marking the second consecutive set of “dovish inflation data.” It is extremely rare in history for PPI and CPI to both turn “negative.” Analysts called it a situation where “the inflation transmission chain has been directly cut off.”
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed’s July rate-hike probability dropped sharply from 31% before the PPI release to 12.3% (as of early 7/16). The September rate-hike probability also fell in tandem, with pricing for rate-hike expectations nearly “going out.”
The crypto market reacted immediately: BTC broke through the $65,000 level from $64,500 intraday, reaching a three-week high of $65,518. In the past 24h, short liquidations totaled $209 million (64.5% of the $324 million liquidations across the whole market). ETH led gains with +6%, breaking through the $1,850-$1,900 resistance zone. SOL rose +3.4%, XRP +4.1%, and ADA +4.5% all rebounded across the board. Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said, “Tuesday’s CPI data has materially changed the near-term macro path. Neither Iran’s blockade nor a 14.6% 5-day oil price surge could shake this pattern.” However, the DXY U.S. dollar index still held at 100.77, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.57%—confirming that “the cooling of inflation” is, as of 2026 to date, the most dovish macro mix. Still, before the FOMC on July 28-29, key data remain to be released, such as Non-Farm Payrolls/PCE/the Michigan consumer confidence index, etc. Whether “dovish expectations” can be realized remains uncertain.
Market impact assessment: Positive (two consecutive sets of inflation data cooling more than expected + the sharp drop in rate-hike probability + short-squeeze blowups amplifying the rebound = a reversal in short-term risk appetite; BTC broke above 65,000 to set a three-week high, but investors should watch for “good-news realization” pressure).
Affected coins: BTC (direct beneficiary: $209 million in short liquidations + breaking above the $65,000 level + setting a three-week high of $65,518); ETH (leading gains +6% breaking the $1,900 resistance); SOL/XRP/ADA (meme/alt-coordination rebound +3-5%); stablecoins (lower expectations for on-chain reserve yield); entire market (rate-hike expectations repriced + a weaker U.S. dollar amplifying the upside volatility of risk assets).
At 20:30 Beijing time on July 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June PPI: QoQ unexpectedly fell 0.3% (market expected flat / previous value +0.1%), mainly dragged down by a 9% plunge in gasoline prices; YoY +2.4% (expected +2.6% / previous value +2.7%); core PPI QoQ +0.1% (expected +0.3%). This follows the biggest drop since the COVID period after the June CPI QoQ of -0.4% on the evening of 7/14, marking the second consecutive set of “dovish inflation data”—so rare in history that PPI and CPI are both “double negative.” Analysts call it “inflation transmission chain is directly cut off.”
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a Fed rate hike for July plunges from 31% before the PPI release to 12.3% (as of early July 16); the September rate-hike probability also drops in sync, and pricing for rate-hike expectations nearly “goes out.”
Crypto market reacts immediately: BTC breaks above the $65k level from $64,500 intraday, touching a three-week high of $65,518; in the last 24h, short liquidations total $209 million (64.5% of the $324 million total liquidations across the market). ETH leads gains, up +6%, breaking through the $1,850-$1,900 resistance zone. SOL +3.4%, XRP +4.1%, and ADA +4.5% rebound across the board. Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard notes that “Tuesday’s CPI data has materially changed the near-term macro path; even Iran sanctions + oil prices rising 14.6% over five days couldn’t shake this.” However, the DXY dollar index still holds at 100.77, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls to 4.57%—“inflation cooling confirmed” is the most dovish macro combination so far in 2026. But before the FOMC on July 28-29, there are still key data to be released, including Nonfarm Payrolls/PCE and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; whether “dovish expectations” can actually be realized remains uncertain.
Market impact assessment: Positive (two consecutive sets of inflation cooling beyond expectations + rate-hike probability collapsing + short-squeeze liquidation amplifying the rebound = short-term risk appetite reversal; BTC breaks 65,000 to hit a three-week high, but watch for “good-news realization” pressure)
Affected coins: BTC (directly benefits, $209 million short liquidations + breaks above $65,000 + sets a three-week high of $65,518), ETH (leads gains +6% breaking above $1,900 resistance), SOL/XRP/ADA (alts rebound in sync +3-5%), stablecoins (lower expectations for on-chain reserve yield), whole market (rate-hike expectations repriced + weaker USD amplifies risk-asset volatility)