Have we seen Bitcoin’s floor yet? How low will it fall?

Our short answer: it’s probably we haven’t seen the bottom yet. Here’s why:
Let’s start with the history. Take a look at the chart of past bear-market declines:
In 2018, Bitcoin fell 83% from its highs. In 2022, it fell 77%.
Do you see the pattern? Each bear cycle drops a little less than the previous one.
That makes sense— the bigger Bitcoin gets, the less brutal the hit.
If that rule holds, this cycle would see a drop of around 71%. From its peak of $126,000, that would put it at roughly $36,000 per bitcoin.
Now, take it easy. We DO NOT think it will go that low.
Why? Because this time there’s something different: ETFs, the inflow of institutional capital, and demand that didn’t exist before. All of that should slow the drop long before.
But as investors, we’re prepared for anything.
So where is the truly interesting zone? On-chain metrics give a very clear hint.
The average price at which all the existing Bitcoin has been bought is around $53,000. And for those who have been holding for years, it’s $49,000.
Historically, whenever the price breaks through those levels, it has been some of the best accumulation moments of the entire cycle.
Bitcoin is at $64,000 today. So that $53,000 to $49,000 zone (or slightly below) is where things get interesting. And it’s not far off.
When will the bottom arrive? If the duration pattern repeats, the floor usually comes around one year after the peak. That puts it between October and November.
Now, the important and honest part:
None of this is a prediction. History rhymes, but it won’t play out exactly the same. Bitcoin matures, the market changes, and everything can reverse earlier due to other factors.
That’s why we don’t try to nail the exact bottom. We accumulate in stages, with our heads on, already thinking about the next few years.
Because in the end, the lesson of every cycle is the same: patience always ends up paying off.
We appreciate any engagement with this post. ❤️🔄
If we see interest, we’ll publish for free here a guide on our Bitcoin and Ethereum buying strategy.